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Mystic Wind
27 Feb 19 10:40
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Date Joined: 21 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 412 | Blogger: Mystic Wind's blog
The Racing Post are reporting that Newspaperofrecord is being aimed at this. Unless a European Guineas unearths a superstar filly she could could be a very short-priced favourite in June if turning up.

The only firm I can find who have priced her up is SkiBet (in their RequestAbet section). Their 8/1 is surely over-priced, although I won't be getting rich on the amount they'd lay her to me forLaugh

Good luck if you can get a proper on!

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Replies: 43
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 27 Feb 19 12:18
Hope some of you got on - she's been 'trimmed' from 8/1 to 2/1 Shocked
By:
impossible123
When: 10 May 19 01:10
I'd hope Qabala have a serious chance for this unless Just Wonderful has one of her rare good days; the American horse is generally available at 5/1.
By:
the fink sisters
When: 22 May 19 10:05
Now a non-runner according to the RP, but doubtful she stays looking at her last race. Shame, as runners from further afield add some spice to an already great meeting. Lots of French fillies in the declarations currently, so they could have a strong hand.

At the prices, I like Jubiloso. Looks like the sort of later-maturing filly that Stoute does well with. Will have to take a big step up on what she's achieved so far.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 May 19 12:42
The Irish 1000G this weekend will ensure the picture is clearer with Hermosa, Qabala and Just Wonderful in contention; Jubiloso is progressive, and won impressively last time.
By:
John.W.Henry.
When: 22 May 19 12:48
Jubi . may have the jersey as an option ?
By:
John.W.Henry.
When: 22 May 19 12:49
Will get an allowance from the boys there.. Thats the race for her
By:
impossible123
When: 26 May 19 16:54
Hermosa has just done the double emphatically by 4 lengths in Ireland; 2/1 to emulate Winter in this. Any serious rival if she turns up? Not in my book.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 May 19 17:09
Despite the convincing win of Hermosa in Ireland she's being opposed for this; fav or 2nd fav for the French Oaks 5 days earlier. Could she go there instead? If so, inside info pays dividend (again); inside info = hindsight in horse racing - an absolute privilege to possess.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Jun 19 17:59
Connections of Hermosa have ditched France. She's running in this at Royal Ascot after all.
By:
elisjohn
When: 06 Jun 19 08:39
i bloody knew she would go for the coronation, and i  had itchy fingers wanting to back her around 5s and 6s on here and didnt .
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Jun 19 16:19
This won't be the same test of stamina that the Curragh was, which made her look more superior than she is. Round a bend, probable summer fast ground and the fact she'll be close to Evens on the day make her a great lay if current line up is confirmed.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 06 Jun 19 17:02
The standard time for the round mile at Ascot is greater than that at the Curragh and if the Prix De Diane was considered I don`t see stamina as an issue for Hermosa.
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 19 12:31
Qabala is out.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Jun 19 13:09
think castle lady could be value here unbeaten late maturing filly won french guineas latest on the up ,needs to find some but may do and around 12s on here now .fav a bit short and this one could suprise .
selection castle lady around 12s on here .
By:
Howellsy
When: 20 Jun 19 21:02
Figgis, do you think Hermosa will recoil after her Irish heroics? It was a massive figure on my book albeit beating rank inferiors (Pretty Pollyanna perhaps excepted but reappearing and arguably better over shorter). Was she flattered by the run of the race a la Phoenix of Spain? And even if so, is there anything here that can beat her? Jubiloso isn't my sort of thing, stepping up so markedly in class. Castle Lady could improve again and has to; Twist n'Shake is perhaps worth an interest based on a good time at York. Not a race for a confident bet for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Jun 19 21:47
Howellsy, I can see how you've arrived at a big figure for the race in comparison to a lot of the other races on that Curragh card. Initially I started from a position of upgrading her from Newmarket but eventually came to the conclusion that it was actually 4lbs worse than Newmarket. I know that might seen unreasonable, and for a while I also thought that surely the others couldn't have all run so poorly, but as Phoenix Of Spain showed in the SJP after looking quite impressive at the Curragh, yes they could. I reckon POS only ran to his Futurity 2yo mark in winning the Irish Guineas.

The other mile race on that card is the only race that gives a true comparison. A lot of those Irish handicaps are garbage and that one was no different. Crotchet carried 9st 12lbs and finished close up, she's not that good. My view at the moment is there was a complete no show from Hermosa's main opponents, even that run by Pretty Pollyanna isn't a patch on her best 2yo form.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 21 Jun 19 09:33
Obvious chance but drawn 10 and soft/good to soft ground. Will be watching only.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 15:21
No worse than good on both courses judging by the first two races. Personally I would even say the fast side of good.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 16:03
Howellsy, how do you see Main Edition? For me her best form last year would've seen her second in this year's Guineas. Went totally off the boil after the Newmarket win. Don't know what to make of her German Guineas win. Obviously that wouldn't be anywhere near good enough here but it was unevenly run and there's a chance she could improve on that. Like you I couldn't back Jubiloso. The potential is there but you can say that about a horse in nearly every race. I rate Hermosa no more than an average Guineas winner who followed up at the Curragh in a race where the others might've well just stayed in their boxes for what running they did. However, her Newmarket form still makes her the one to beat but I've backed ME at big prices in the knowledge she could just as well finish last as first (pretty much par for the course for my bets on Johnston runners Wink)
By:
Howellsy
When: 21 Jun 19 16:19
Hm. A brave shout Figgis. I've never really liked Main Edition - never done a big figure for me. But struggling to find one to beat the fav. Castle Lady unexposed but needs to improve a lot. No bet for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 16:44
Was right about Hermosa but only half right about Johnston's, it finished last Laugh
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 18:22
sorry but once again the time boys clueless
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 18:29
Clueless compared to who?
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 18:39
no comparison
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 18:48
I didn't see anyone put up Hermosa as a bet, Hermosa as a lay, or the winner as a bet.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 18:58
my point is time followers could not have found the winner today. arguing over the veracity of the massive speed figure Hermosa earned is Ireland is absolutely pointless. do you guys ever find 20/1 winners?
By:
kincsem
When: 21 Jun 19 19:06
Figgis
I didn't see anyone put up Hermosa as a bet, Hermosa as a lay, or the winner as a bet.


https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057990004&page=10
post # 138
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 19:13
arguing over the veracity of the massive speed figure Hermosa earned is Ireland is absolutely pointless

Well her speed figure proved to me that she hadn't improved at the Curragh, was still nothing special as a Guineas winner and was a poor bet at the price. It didn't help me find the winner but I didn't see anyone put up an alternative view that helped them find it either. Nor did I see anyone have the balls to put her up as a lay beforehand.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 19:16
It was a massive figure on my book

you obviously know what you're doing relative to Howellsy
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 19:17
and my question is still the same. when do you guys ever find 20/1 winners. and AP doesn't count.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 19:20
when do you guys ever find 20/1 winners

Why, is that the only way of turning a profit at the game?
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 19:34
no but following the same ridiculously simplistic approach that every one else does wont let you turn a profit. the question remains....
By:
kincsem
When: 21 Jun 19 19:35
If you read today's boards.ie Ascot thread you will see I also had 100 at 36s on Watch Me, although that was a very late bet just before the off not posted on the boards.ie thread pre-race..
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 19:38
https://www.usracing.com/news/features/beyer-speed-figures
By:
Charlton2005
When: 21 Jun 19 19:39
well done Kincs. I know you go by many variables, breeding, draw etc etc but I am fairly sure you don't focus much on times?
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 19 19:48
the question remains...

the same ridiculously simplistic approach

I'd hardly call it the same approach. I have many differences with other figure compilers.

20/1s not ante post? Very rarely these days as I only occasionally bet in handicaps and I don't bet a handful of runners in a race. I have had a 50/1 and a few 20/1s in Gp1s many moons ago, but that has become much more improbable since the exchanges.

How often have you put up a 20/1 winner on here Charlton?
By:
kincsem
When: 21 Jun 19 20:21
charlton2005
The winner, Watch Me, was the first Group 1 winner for the sire Olympic Glory, who won Group 1s as a 2yo, 3yo, 4yo.
I bought a mare at Arqana in December 2017 carrying a filly foal by Olympic Glory.
The filly, now a yearling, might go to the salees in a few months.  She has a good physique, but no pedigree page.
Unfortunately, the mare has since failed to get in foal in 2018 and 2019.

Olympic Glory would be almost unknown as a sire in GB/IRE.
In 2018 he was 2nd in the 1st season sires in France.
In 2019 he is in 2nd place in the 2nd season sires in France (Euro 503,710), the leader Kingman with Euro 847,205 of which one horse, Persian King won Euro 725,740.
I watch almost all the Olympic Glory runners on France Galop, and the value of my yearling filly does not decline with his 17 wins ytd or the Group 1 Coronation Stakes win.
They are triers, and have a bit of pace.

Watch Me won the French classic trial, the Prix Imprudence, coming from the rear of the field.
Watch Me had a horror run in the French 1000 guineas.
She was two off the rail with about three furlongs to run when a horse came on her outside and blocked her in. 
She then tried to go to the rail in the straight and was again blocked, took a pull and tried to switch to the right, but by then they were close to the line.
I though she was about a 7/1 chance today, being offered at 36s on betfair.
By:
kincsem
When: 21 Jun 19 21:40
Just in case anyone thinks I have this game licked I should point out
My bet in the English Oaks finished last
My bet in the English Derby finished last
By:
Howellsy
When: 22 Jun 19 00:37
Charlton, try posting ideas before a race. I said I'd given Hermosa a big figure at the Curragh. I remain convinced it was a big figure. But I made it clear I wasn't trusting it in today's circumstances. Everything went her way. I doubted that would be the case today hence my clear 'no bet' post. Why not tell us who you fancy for the Hardwicke? Or the Jubilee? Wokingham by any chance?
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