Horse Antepost
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only 2 months to go now , last year the form was in the bag and i had it sussed out , today not so . my favourite race of the year . so i will be reviewing and getting down to it . whippin piccadilly you are welcome to tell me whom wins ? though i will have formulated my own opinion in a couple of weeks
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my eye is but an eye . southfield stone looks good . no entries though and he hung to the fence . looked a bit special imo , but , has no entries, i like him though , is he well mr nicholls ?
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my eye is but an eye . southfield stone looks good . no entries though and he hung to the fence . looked a bit special imo , but , has no entries, i like him though , is he well mr nicholls ?
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Elixir de Nutz at 10s nrnb with Sky is a cracking ew bet. Going straight to the Supreme. Will be 5s on the day
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elixir has a issue with his tail imo , when it goes out like his does , that normally means he has spinal problems
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didnt stop him lto i know . i would be concerned regarding undulations and faster going , they dont stick the bolt tail out for fun !
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wowcha , aramon ! very impressed with this horse lto . settles , jumps , goes left handed and has shown blistering acceleration in high class event . to temper hes by monsun and although his form has suggested hes been running on good ground , if you watch the vt its very much on the slow side of good . getabird was a short price for this last year so it is a concern that his price is relatively large . is it value or do people know something i dont ?looking at his price in his last three starts it suggests that he fools the yard in terms of his ability . if he didnt mistake at the last in the royal bond he would have gone close and while triplicate didnt repeat his form from that race lto sancta simona was a posi and he thrashed it by 10ls at 6-1 . this horse is my favourite as of now
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again aramon is not fancied by the yard and goes down to a nose . strange why they dont like him from a market perspective .Ruby jumps ship albeit onto the winner . watching that finish i couldnt help but think he wasnt ridden max by townend . i think the public were on aramon and the yard were on kd and i,m not bitter loser as i was just watching , no involvement .
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just looking at wikipedia 39 of the last 44 winners were aged 5 or 6 which doesnt bode well for the 4yo plunger fakir doudairies
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around about 10 career starts appears to be optimum .
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i,ve lost my enthusiasm regarding aramon . Based on two reasons the first is despite what he has done and from the most powerful yard he is easy to bet and secondly if you look at winners over the last 15 years most have not run more than 10 career starts . The fact that the irish dont have a hotpot for this suggests in my mind that the home team may well again harbour the winner . the one ticking all the boxes for me now as we move closer is mr fisher . hes the right age , low mileage and in top form the slight angst is that hes a tall horse thats been winning on flat tracks . it didnt stop vautour , douvan and champagne fever though . i wouldnt want to be with him on soft though
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What about Fakir D'oudaries? He's proven and will be receiving 8lbs from his elders, and rated many lbs higher than the rest too.
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watch the vt of his race , he has about 6ls up going to the last , spacially unaware slevin whipped him 7 times after the last , the form reads a lot better than it looks
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Fakir D'oudaries has better form and more experience than Angels Breath the long time fav who won his 1st hurdle race jumping only 4 of 8 hurdles that day due to atrocious ground; his win beating Adjali by 16l looks far superior than any here, and the 8lbs wfa allowance is a bonus.
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interesting what prep race angels breath runs in hes entered un 2m race thurs and 2m 3f friday .......also dovecote sat reading between the lines latter unlikely would think owner might push for 2m 3f race give owner choice of running in ballymore.......getaway trump didnt endorse champs form saturday bad 4th to al dancer
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i couldnt have angels breath , i know he jumped limited hurdles lto, but , the important point to me was that he never had to jump under pressure as at least the last and maybe the last two were omitted . so for him to be fav is just barmy . he has a engine yes , hes trained by a top yard yes , but , if you havent even jumped under pressure once in your life ! it has no chance
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Need to see him tomorrow, hope he runs.
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I think Angels Breath is running; Nico's booked to ride; backed from 2/1 into 5/6. Next best is Scarlet Dragon at 3/1.
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Yep, running.
Good, I shall be there to see how he gets on. |
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Angels Breath looks poor value today although he deserves credit for winning a grade 2 first time out. At the price I'll back Scarlet Dragon to do him for pace.
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I agree and have backed Scarlet Dragon - the race just sets up perfectly for him - Angel's Breath has to contend with a penalty, a tight track, inexperience over hurdles and unusually quick ground for February - looking at his profile I can't see how these are his optimum conditions (although the ground per se should n't be a problem to be fair).
I can see Angel's Breath being diverted to the Ballymore (he's entered, Al Dancer is n't) as a repercussion of today's race - on the other hand Henderson's forgotten more about the game than I'll ever know and if AB is impressive in these circumstances it'll be a huge pointer to his Supreme chances. Let's see... |
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well i imagined what i saw . like mick said hes not done ,hes still a proper horse , but , chelts comes too early imo . if the owners wanna go to chelts i would lowball him and if he does well , look to peak him for aintree and look for next season as his time
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nicholls couldnt have southfield stone as anymore than a handicapper . he rates grand sancy much higher . strange give mr fishers form why hes not in the top 3 in the market . elixir de nutz did not impress ,most whom watched the tolworth , but , theres a tremendous strength in his price , unlike mr fisher whoms profile looks really good , but , like aramon the vibes are starting to say nay
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i have chopped and changed with this race and tried to champion a horse ,. i,ve gone from aramon to mr fisher and now i am gonna switch for the last time elixir de nutz whom will win this race
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his work must be very good as he wouldnt have impressed in the tolworth with the bolt tail for the punters visually , so his short price speaks volumes from that perspective . just looking at the rp website as i write this and my thoughts are confirmed in mr tizzards comments regarding his work . enough said
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11/12 Age 5/6
10/12 LTO winners 9/12 Ran within 59 days 10/12 min 4 hurdle starts 10/12 rated 142 or above 9/12 graded winners 12/12 min 2 runs current season 10/12 min 2 hurdle wins 2/16 unbeaten over hurdles 0/35 horses wearing headgear since 1992 Just a few of the many stats that surround this race. Should be named the Supreme Patience Test. Always maintained this is the hardest race of the entire week. The coming together of talented novices from both sides of the water,all at different stages of their fledgling careers,all improving at different rates. Just the 61 entries,an open looking market,being run on who knows what actual ground. Not difficult to make a case for at least 10 of these. STD and Cobden having a chat would be worth a listen. The forecast jolly has two big stats to overcome,the unbeaten one,and that headgear angle (gaultstats).Stamina looks to be the key to him,lovely horse,but will he get done for toe after the last,surely his best chance looks to be from very near the front. Too many questions for me at the moment,I currently stand 0/9 prev runnings  Looking at this lot I can see 0/10 a distinct probability. Overnight decs our only saving grace,this renewal looks a real puzzle,just as it should be. |
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well nocturnal you better get looking if you wont take on board my synopsis as the form is in the bag . ground and injuries are all that can change now . i am nowhere near arrogant enough to suggest elixir de nutz will win , he is my selection based on knowledge i have acquired over the years . i would appreciate a good case and am open-minded .tis what the forum is for !
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well nocturnal you better get looking if you wont take on board my synopsis as the form is in the bag . ground and injuries are all that can change now . i am nowhere near arrogant enough to suggest elixir de nutz will win , he is my selection based on knowledge i have acquired over the years . i would appreciate a good case and am open-minded .tis what the forum is for !
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Do not fear gpz......I will have have an opinion come raceday.
EDN is a player,no doubt,the question is are all the pieces in place ? Who rides him would be my first concern,will he have a class 1 pilot. From a brief look yesterday,lets throw one into the mix. Thomas Darby......6 yr old from the Murphy yard. Standout piece of form was his defeat of EDN in October,a race that was run at Cheltenham, below standard time, on going described as good.An early season novice may not be the answer to the supreme,but there are reasons to think this horse could be anything. That day he gave EDN a ten length start,looked all at sea with the undulations,was more likely at halfway to be tailed off,yet when he met the final turn he quickened like a real smart horse,picking up the leaders after the last,suggesting that final climb was right up his street. Quite what he has achieved since,thats the big question. He comes here with LTO victory,albeit in a small field novice,and he has had 4 runs,so he has the required experience. Add to that,his only run LEFT HANDED was that day in October,at the stiffest track he has encountered,have they been keeping him to Right handed tracks for a reason,is he a stayer long term? Always plenty pace in the day 1 opener,sitting off the pace may just be the key,last years renewal was a good example where the winner,on the day,was able to keep going on that long climb to the line. TD has 5 entries,the Ballymore and 3 handicaps,trading around 30 on here for this race. Nailing your colours this far out is fine,if there is perceived value in that Antepost stance.Without the final pieces of this Jigsaw I just find it too difficult. Just one horse with an interesting profile,interesting to see where he heads. Looks a cracking renewal this far out. |
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nice one nocturnal that is a interesting shout for thomas darby . a horse that beat edn at chelts and is lightly raced whom also comes into the race off a win . I would say that he was very fit when he beat edn based on his price given he had no hurdle experience . edn on the other hand was 14-1 and ran much better than expected and has continued to improve in higher grade / prize money races and is progressive rather than thomas darby whom must be classified as regressive given his profile / nvh 4k win lto compared to what the former has achieved . on that single piece of form if you wanna say that its up there and that edn hasnt improved way beyond him you need to look at the other two whom came close in that race . bang on frankie and sebastopol ,neither of which have been able to win low key nvh races . based on that i,m flinging him out , thanks for making the shout though .
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Aye thats the problem with the novices,plenty look to be on that upward curve on form alone,yet very few will continue that through the whole season.
Gunning them early doors can be fatal, come the the big spring time festivals they are a shadow of their previous best,and run accordingly. Hendo would be a prime example,take out Altior and his supreme win record is dire,yet some of the placed horses he has sent there were grade 1 performers later in their careers. The Tizzards may have got the main headlines with Native River in the GC 2018,but just as important long term may have been the Albert Bartlett novice winner.That will have shown them just whats required to get a youngster there in top shape,which can only benefit EDN chance come the 12th march. That race in October has a tenuous link to Al Dancer,Magic Dancer second in the Betfair, ran on the same day.His class 3 was 2 secs above standard,Thomas Darby as green as he looked,produced a winning time 1.1 secs below standard,quite remarkable looking at his run style that day. I would agree he has not blown us away since,however there is a decent engine in there.Not forgetting the earlier stats,if there was ever a candidate for headgear,he would be very near the top. Ploughing through them all is time consuming,he interested me because of his other entries,come back to this once we have a clearer picture. GL gpz |
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the link is 14th december where al dancer and edn both raced over course and distance in different races . al recorded a faster time , he did have a faster run race and a bigger field .I ,d be certain al dancer would have beaten edn on that day remember al was being primed for the betfair hurdle which he duly won 1 week late at ascot . edn on the other hand is all about the supreme and is kicking and squelling by all accounts where as al d may just have left his peak behind lto . obviously its my opinion and it aint necessarily right . best of luck
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theres also a jockey issue as harry cobden will surely be claimed by nicholls for grand sancy whom he rates very highly and we look to be getting tom obrien . tom did a grand job in the tolworth , but , he wouldnt be my pick in a supreme nor many other punters so given the circumstances its down to tom . be in the first third of the field dont let them get away from you and race from the top of the hill . that is my advice
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I have backed both EDN and GS,at the prices that have been available since the Tolworth i thought i was allowed that.
If you fancy one i think you have to fancy the other!! |
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FD (expecting to be declared) and MF for me with lesser on AB. I'd the wrong one (BD) when Hendo also had Altior (less fancy of his two) too; last winners for me were Shadow Leader and Flown yonks ago when betting for sheer fun.
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edn has six hurdle races and beat grand sancy whom has 11 I would also say paul puts the bullet to the head a lot sooner than most . given edn is layed for this and squeeling , gs is unlikely to improve beyond him i can see a partition between the two to be honest buddeliea .
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al dancer is the horse whom is difficult to sidestep given he has fewer hurdle runs and won in a faster time on the 14th . i,m doing this by crabbing the form as he was chased up by a 100-1 shot seller lto followed by a 20-1 shot suggesting for one reason or another the other contenders didnt run their race
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gpz
I take your points mate,and you may well be right,and EDN was my first choice. Since then though i was impressed with GS last time,and his trainer is quiet bullish it seems. So at 12's i decided to add GS,and i really feel they will be pretty close to each other on the day,and want both on my side. Also got Itchy feet as i dont think he should be the price he is compared to these two,although lack of a run this year would be a concern . |
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just a note on fd for 123 he ran 4m 6 secs on very similar ground to the 14 th when aldancer recored 3m 58 and edn 4m 2 secs so . roughly speaking i think its about 0.2 seconds a length which puts him a long way off the pace . like 5 x 8 = 40 lengths
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budd regarding itchy feet form he beat grand sancy then was beat by edn . another marker suggesting a partition in my book . hes 114 days since a run and given the liquidity in the market i reckon you could have all you like on him . did you ever stop for a long period ? you lose core strength and its a slog to get back strength to where you were let alone winning a supreme
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