2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Possible Contenders

Bellshill  - carried a massive weight in the Irish National in heavy ground ,looked like a  superstar until the last fence and then won at Punchestown.
Waiting Patiently - What if he hacks up next Tuesday ?
Kemboy - A run in the Ladbrokes would have told us more of his staying potential.
Shattered Love - Running over shorter trips so far this season , eye catching pursuit of Min last time.
Monbeg Notorious - Good novice last season
Al Boum Photo - remembered for one race now , but looked very good in others.

If the 1st 2 last year turn up and is as good as they were in the last renewal it will be between them again, I'm fairly certain; Presenting Percy needs to improve as beating a non-stayer over 3m is not good enough form to win; Bellshill (rating 164) still a bit novicey; Waiting Patiently 1st time over 3.25m and needs improve too - the King George (if running) will shed more light on his chance here. The others a place at best, I firmly believe.

Last year’s race was run on heavy ground and it must have taken a hell of a lot out of the first two. I couldn’t back Might Bite with counterfeit after his last run. Native River ran well in defeat last time out but you don’t get many horses who win consecutive gold cups.

Waiting Patiently is a very good horse over two and a half but it remains to be seen what he’ll do at 3m on a flat track never mind 3m2f at Cheltenham - a course his connections have been reluctant to run at.

I won’t be getting involved in this market at the moment. There are far too many questions hanging over the main protagonists. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if a horse currently at 33/1 wins it.

There is one forgotten horse. I have punted it already. Once I am satisfied with the amount I have on it, which needs to be a whole lot more to quench my thirst for a six figure gold cup win, I shall release the name.

shlotter,

  This horse certainly isn't forgotten, we've all been backing it for months at 5 times the price it is now to win a 10 figure sum.

Surprised you arrived at the party so late.

when you consider native river and mite bite duelled it out head to head virtually from the start to the line  of the gold cup in heavy ground will both be the same horses this year  after that ? must be a huge doubt ,native river tough as teak but its a big ask imo.the 2 i have gone for elegant escape and shattered love are big prices atm and elegant escape looks a bit of a plodder but that is not too much of a negative given some of the recent gold cup results ,shattered love put in a decent run last time hunting up min and the step up in trip may suit .all to play for .

If anyone wants a horse to go into battle with it will be Native River any time, any day eg 7 races in his 1st novice chasing season; 5 the next; only 2, one winning the Gold Cup in 2018. This season 2 so far in quite close proximity (money induced). Hopefully, one more race or none at all prior to defending his crown at the Festival.

Native River and Clan Des Obeaux are 6/1 and 10/1 respectively for the Blue Riband, reasonable for a defending champion and young pretender, I reckon.

Do we see Clan Des Obeaux coming up the hill at Cheltenham ?
I cannot see him beating Native River at that course and distance.....even though I do have him at 34's in my antepost portfolio.
Native River finished off very strongly after finding the race and course far too sharp for his talents yesterday.
Thistlecrack looked the winner 4 furlongs out , a mighty performance .
Waiting Patiently , they will have to wait patiently again.
I can't see him running in the Gold Cup now with no evidence of the necessary stamina.
Might Bite did as I expected failed to run anywhere close to a full race , no expert but would it be a shock if he needed a breathing op?

Summary........when are we going to see Presenting Percy?

Some performance from Kenboy (55's in my portfolio) .
Road To Respect did well to finish 3rd after stumble.
Bellshill looks like he needs more of a stamina test.
Monalee ran well always close to the front.

The other interesting one for me is The Storyteller , jumped left all the way around yet stayed competitive.
If they can sort that out he is an interesting outsider.

Davy loves that horse

a taking performance by kenboy and he looks to have improved plenty on last season on that showing . jockey said he could be a serious horse . by his own admission he said they went very very slow for 2 circuits and nothing took him on after he took it up !. .......i think he will be taken on in the gold cup he may still be good enough and it will be a fast run stamina test .well done for getting the big price 626 and good luck

bit of a move on the storytellers price on here.

Presenting Percy stands out with so many doubts about the others but will he get his ground? That`s why we haven`t seen him yet this season. Needs soft. 4/1 looks rather skimpy given that.

Whichever race and discipline Presenting Percy (PP) makes his debut this season he'd need a good showing otherwise, his unwarranted skinny price will implode rightfully; PP had not run and/or beaten anything that was a serious contender of the Gold Cup; beat a non-stayer in Monalee who'll be contesting the Ryanair Chase over 20f in March.

I think the skinny price of PP is mainly hope and expectation than actual achievement so far.

i think a Irish 1-2-3 is on the cards

good luck with getting Native River out the first three!!

And Clan Des Obeaux.

What price for an Irish 1-2-3? 666/1; Irish no 1-2-3? 5/4, in my book; PP not placed? 'Evens'; PP and Laurina unplaced? 4/6 in my book.

I

Can i back both of those options please ?

my combination tricast...
Presenting Percy, Kemboy, Road to Respect, Balko des Flos, Tout est Permis.

A massive payout if materialises.

Look no further than Bellshill. Today he showed he had the pace to beat a Gold cup 4th over a distance too short. Cheltenham will play to his strengths. Supreme jumping ability and stamina.

Bellshill chelt record is poor, did not get up the hill behind Might Bite and his two other runs were pretty woeful.

Looks a different horse now though.
Since the RSA hes been much improved.Gone from rated 148 to 168.
Races since include a close 2nd in the Irish National,so stamina no issue.

Apologies was not 2nd ,was disqualified and placed 5th.
But still proved stamina should be fine for the Gold Cup.

He's improved for sure bud. I always find it hard to forgive a horse when he hasn't performed at the course especially a few times, horses for courses and all that.

Yeh,i can see that Mac.

When Ruby was interviewed after the race last weekend,he said he thought he would beat Might Bite at the top of the hill, or words to that affect,so i thought to myself he must have been happy with how he was running that day,and put the finish down to not being strong enough at that stage of his career.
Now hes won some good races at senior level and ran well in an Irish National,i feel he could enjoy the Gold Cup conditions.

i reckon clan des obeaux myself . i like the sudden improvement over a further trip and i like his agility , hes not got a stiff chasis , hes fluid and is proven at chelts . reminding me of imperial call

its a shame the forum lacks a richness and diversity . i feel like those that comment are walking into a empty pub .

Indeed, the debate has become a bit polarised eg either PP or not PP, apart from CDO (buoyed by the King George and Denman victories), and a smaller extent Native River (the forgotten reigning champion) by the value seekers and form students, but nothing about Kemboy, the winner of the Savills Chase.

PP is like Marmite ie lauded by his fellow countrymen or admirers despite lacking the obvious criteria, or ridiculed/unloved by those who are value conscious and followers of established formlines.

PP non runner tomorrow...again!!
Goes into the Gold Cup without a race over fences this season.

Have we ever had a winner of a Gold Cup that aint raced over fences that season??
Have we had a runner for that matter??

PP Could be making history........doubt it though.

Not the least surprised no show for PP this weekend. But will 'houdini' show-up for the Blue Riband next month or will there be a twist and he decamps to the Stayers instead? That's what I'd like to know.

A couple of plays for me: Percy @ 5.4 (win) & Anibale fly for a place (5pls, 3.7)
Gd luck all. :-)