Horse Antepost
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Some entries that are catching my eye at this stage:
Otago Trail
Decent come back from a long absence recently, and needs to be considered for a trainer who targets the race. Has won over the course which the trend boys will tell you is a pre-requisite and loves the mud! 25/1
Looksnowtlikebrian
A young progressive type who is climbing up the ratings so should get in if it's his target; has run well at the course and seems to be fine on any ground. I'm sure his Welsh based trainer would love to win the race. Only doubt is whether he is experienced enough, price is short enough this far out. 16/1
Final Nudge
3rd last year and was outstayed towards the end I think. This year he could turn up 7lb lower in the weights, but more importantly he could turn up fresh which I think is more of a benefit as he runs well after a long break so I am hoping he does not have a prep, decent price. 25/1
Bishops Road
This horse ran well behind Native River in this off 154, now rated 137 so has regressed somewhat. He did pull up in the last renewal, but he had been running well on ground that does not suit before an UR lto. Would not surprise to see him run well. 33/1
Impulsive Star
Was 4th in the NH Chase, so very easy to make the case that he is well handicapped off of 139. He has a bit of form at the coarse as he was 3rd behind the current favourite Ramses De Tellie. Will surely stay the trip but he is a bit inexperienced with only 4 chases, no idea if this is the plan. 25/1 available in a place.
Another Venture
This race seems to be the target and he had a prep race over the course yesterday, only 4th but entitled to come on from that. Not overly convinced with him as a stayer last season but trainer is very keen as he is a year older and just his type of horse, big price. 40/1
Pobbles
Was 7th (long way back) in the last renewal when running off a mark of 144, and for some reason seems to have dropped to 131, so nearly a stone less. Had a prep over hurdles so not to waste this mark I guess. He has a lot to make up, but another year stronger, needs a few to come out but interesting. 25/1
Final Nudge I guess is the one interesting me at this stage.
Otago Trail
Decent come back from a long absence recently, and needs to be considered for a trainer who targets the race. Has won over the course which the trend boys will tell you is a pre-requisite and loves the mud! 25/1
Looksnowtlikebrian
A young progressive type who is climbing up the ratings so should get in if it's his target; has run well at the course and seems to be fine on any ground. I'm sure his Welsh based trainer would love to win the race. Only doubt is whether he is experienced enough, price is short enough this far out. 16/1
Final Nudge
3rd last year and was outstayed towards the end I think. This year he could turn up 7lb lower in the weights, but more importantly he could turn up fresh which I think is more of a benefit as he runs well after a long break so I am hoping he does not have a prep, decent price. 25/1
Bishops Road
This horse ran well behind Native River in this off 154, now rated 137 so has regressed somewhat. He did pull up in the last renewal, but he had been running well on ground that does not suit before an UR lto. Would not surprise to see him run well. 33/1
Impulsive Star
Was 4th in the NH Chase, so very easy to make the case that he is well handicapped off of 139. He has a bit of form at the coarse as he was 3rd behind the current favourite Ramses De Tellie. Will surely stay the trip but he is a bit inexperienced with only 4 chases, no idea if this is the plan. 25/1 available in a place.
Another Venture
This race seems to be the target and he had a prep race over the course yesterday, only 4th but entitled to come on from that. Not overly convinced with him as a stayer last season but trainer is very keen as he is a year older and just his type of horse, big price. 40/1
Pobbles
Was 7th (long way back) in the last renewal when running off a mark of 144, and for some reason seems to have dropped to 131, so nearly a stone less. Had a prep over hurdles so not to waste this mark I guess. He has a lot to make up, but another year stronger, needs a few to come out but interesting. 25/1
Final Nudge I guess is the one interesting me at this stage.
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seems Sizing Tenessee will not run.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/dec/09/favourite-sizing-tennessee-likely-miss-welsh-grand-national-horse-racing-tips |
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I have to admit I like the look of Looksnowtlikebrian, and will have a few quid on Dawson City at 50/1 and 70+ on here. Given that Houblon des Obeaux ran in the trial on Saturday I would guess that he's an intended runner and must be worth a speculative bet at 66/1 with sky, given the likely soft ground and his current mark
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Can,t find anything more recent than 2017 stats,PRIOR to last years re-scheduled renewal.
A combined age of 26 for the first two home jan 2018,had many stat followers reaching for the medicine cabinet well after festivities had ended. One of my favourite races in the whole calendar,always a tough nut to crack. 15/15 1-5 chase wins 15/15 ran within 49 days 15/15 chase win at 3m or above 14/15 9yr old or younger 13/15 1st 4 lto 12/15 11-0 or below 10/15 max 3 chase wins 9/15 Irish bred 5/15 French bred 6/15 won lto 8/15 won chase at chepstow 10/15 10/1 or lower in market 2/15 winning favs Portrayed in some quarters as a staying chase for battle hardened warriors, who revel in the mud,the recent stats suggest otherwise. The younger brigade generally have had the edge until 12 months ago,the age stat did surprise me. Course form a huge positive,the last 15 winners had also run within 49 days,suggesting fitness is vital. N River bucked the weight trend in 2016,just 2 horses have carried more than 11-0 st to victory this century,Raz De Maree with the claim did carry less than that magical figure. Back To The Thatch 127........unlikely to get a run off that mark as things stand,although Emperors Choice got in off 124 last year. Should the miracle happen,I can see this fella sat in the horses lounge drinking fresh carrot juice,long before the rest are finnished  |
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good work as always, noc - I have n't checked but presumably the combined age of the first two home in the latest renewal would only have been 24 if the race had been run as scheduled (and the result had been the same, obvs)?
 Would be a unique achievement if Raz De Maree could win the race twice at the same age of 13! |
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Correct Rease....... any early thoughts?
It is a strange one,you could follow those stats blindly on a 9 yr old in december,who would then fail as a 10yr old in january, if the race was delayed. I think they are useful when trying to profile the type of horse that wins a particular race,but they would not put me off one I liked,all stats will change periodically. Age is interesting,is it connected to all weather gallops, inprovements in feed regimes,veterinary care,or possibly general horse welfare as equine science moves forward.Results like the Hennessy may be telling us something,especially in the staying divisions, where stamina may improve with age and training tecniques. Slight boo boo with the weight stats,Synchronised in 2010 carried 11-06 to victory,making that 3 this century.Two of those three went on to lift the blue riband in march,is there a contender lurking in this years renewal. RDM was superb last year,getting from A to B in his own way,hindsight is a wonderful thing in racing,his proximity to NR in 20016 was a standout performance,not lost on Rease if memory correct. Come back to this nearer 5 day decs,too many to wade through this far out. |
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Yes, I find the stats useful too - they will help me compile a short list nearer the time, agree it does n't pay to be too dogmatic
Anyway, I've had a quick scan through the entries, Duel At Dawn would be the one interesting me most at this stage I suppose - trouble is he's best price 20/1 and I reckon he could be at least that on race day! Yep, will come back nearer the time and nail my colours to a mast (or two!) |
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^ just noted Duel At Dawn entered at Doncaster on Sat, not sure what to make of that 12 days out...
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my simple approach would be back a horse carrying less than 11st, and make an exception if a potential Gold Cup horse is entered. I would say Elegant Escape is the only one that fits the bill of potential GC horse, so back EE or stick to those carrying less than 11st and aged in single digits
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Interesting trend on the less experienced runners in this doing well, might make me think more positively about Looksnowtlikebrian
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5 day decs out, decided to have a bet on Pobbles Bay & Final Nudge as I think they will shorten over the next few days. A little disappointed Impulsive Star has been taken out, thought this would be right up his street.
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FINAL NUDGE 25-1 e.w
RONS DREAM 20-1 e.w. Final Nudge 3rd last year, jumped and travelled well, reasonable to think connections would target this again. 7lb lower now, finished ahead of Vintage Clouds and now 13lb better off. Rons Dream successful over hurdles round this mark and could be better chaser. Won't mind ground and trip could see improvement. Backed both these a while back and can't believe same price now. Ramses De Teillee looks a big danger, been backed and well in against Rons Dream on form over 3 miles |
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Vintage Cloud 10/1
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I think Elegant Escape will take a lot of beating 6/1 seems short but I think he's still well handicapped, I also like Pobbles Bay and I'm baffled why they would hold an entry in the hurdle race on the same card, surely it runs in the big race? I like the 25/1 but I'm tempted to wait just in case
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There's a chance Pobbles Bay won't make the cut bloob, maximum of 20, so needs 5 to come out. this could be the reason for the other entry. I would certainly hang fire with your bet.
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good point, but it would have to be balloted out so money back, think I will take some 25s before it goes
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Pobbles didn't stay last year, but better going and a big drop in weight should help him. Final Nudge is best fresh so I'm glad this will be fto for him. Glad they realise Vieux Lion Rouge doesn't stay the National trip but does stay this type of trip and is on same mark as his staying on 2nd lto. Ramses De Tielle possibly a bit too short for me, but I think he's a stone better than his mark, so prices on these, along with Fulsom Blue key to the selections.
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Pobbles bay never made the cut, disappointing.
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I have taken a chance with Holly Bush Henry . He is nicely weighted if he gets the trip .
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Dawson City for me, e/w more on the place side
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not convinced it's a vintage renewal - have backed Vintage Clouds 9/1 and Final Nudge 16/1 each way.
Good luck, all... |
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added Looksnowtlikebrian to my Final Nudge bet, good luck all.
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No time waffle
Stats Jennys Surprise Dawson City Form Ballyoptic.......closely matched with jolly on form,ground not as testing as normal for the top weights. GL ALL |
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wd bloob
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Well done bloob,
Elegant Escape travelled well, one heart stopping mistake, deserved to win. Glad Ramses didn't win 14-1 on the day looked value, 8-1 midweek. Tempted but didn't bet it. Rons Dream managed 4th without threatening, Final Nudge must have needed the run he was so disappointing. |
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thanks, fingers crossed they go for the Gold Cup, the last 2 winners carrying over 11st were Syncronized and Native River, so hopefully that's an omen
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Well Done The Bloob.......All Winners.
Need to watch it back,very few appeared to get involved,great battle between the first 2,hard lines those on the runner-up,he ran a cracker. |
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The Enquiry
Elegant Escape,the well supported 3/1 favourite,ran out a game winner over the extended 3m 5f. The race looked to be run at a frenetic pace,the jury is out on the pipe trained VLR,if he was there to try and bring his stablemates stamina in to play,fair enough.However it could be argued it played right into the hands of the winner,whichever way that looked suicidal from scudamore in those conditions. The first two fought it out over the last,switching to the inside on RDT looked the killer move,getting the worst of the ground,had he stuck to the outer the outcome may have been different,both had given all at that point. Back in 3rd YE ran with credit.Quite what he was doing going for home that far out is anyones guess,under that weight it may have been prudent to conserve a little energy.It was noticeable he was gaining on the front two as the line approached,those small things can be the difference,grand horse who likes those conditions. Rons dream flattered on the home turn,the first one home of those held up,that will give them options further down the line. Raz De Maree deserves a mention,fine effort at his age,he has left his mark on this race,be nice to see him head to the paddocks in one piece,wonderful servant. That visual impression is reflected in the time.......gone back 7 runnings,Elegant Escape beat them all. 2018 7m 49 secs 2017 8m 14 2016 7m 52 2015 8m 26 2014 8m 6 2013 7m 55 2012 7m 56 secs. Native River carried 11-12 in 2016,on ground described as soft (gd/sft in places),recording a time 3 secs slower than yesterdays renewal. Not an exact science comparing different races,to me it suggests this could be very strong form on the time alone. The 2 youngest horses finnishing 1st/2nd confirmed the age stat,the trend certainly supports the younger brigade having the upper hand in recent renewals,worth noting as these big staying handicaps continue through the season. Neither of the front two have captured my attention before,that may change after today,both look to have very bright futures on this evidence. Very interesting to see where both go,neither would look out of place at Aintree at some point in their careers. |
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The eagle has landed.
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thanks for putting that up noc ,it did look like they went a good clip and the time confirms it.
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