Industry Starting Prices

Ladbrokes Trophy on course percentage was 120%,not the 128% stated above,apologies.

Half an hour before the race 20/1 Sizing Tennesse was available on Betfair and a margin of around 102%. Can`t remember the last time I bet with a bookmaker.

Beecher Chase 8/12/2018

1 Walk In The Mill 14/1 > 10/1
2 Vieux Lion Rouge 11/1 >11/1
3 Ultragold 12/1 > 12/1
4 Call It Majic 16/1 > 14/1

OCP 127 %

Grand Sefton 8/12/2018

1 Warriors Tale 15/2 > 15/2
2 Brandon Hill  12/1 >11/1
3 Kilcrea Vale 5/1 > 9/2

OCP 118 %


Another big day for well backed horses,still waiting for our fist drifter to win / place.

Makes sense to nominate the races in advance,to avoid any confusion,next weeks will be the Caspian Caviar from Cheltenham,another big saturday handicap.

Caspian Caviar  15/12/2018

1 Frodon 15/2 > 7/1
2 Cepage 11/1 > 12/1 **
3 Guitar Pete 9/1 > 13/2

OCP  123%

** First drifter strikes...Cepage a whole point,fromm 11/1 out to 12/1 **

Thats 1/17 of the winners / placed horses,the other 16 have either remained the same or shortened from opening show.

Two big handicaps at ascot next week,Garrard Silver Cup and Betfair Exchange Trophy.

Can the remarkable run of well backed horses continue ?

Garrard Silver Cup  22/12/2018

1 Valtor 40/1 > 33/1
2 Jammin Masters 6/1 > 7/1  ***
3 Benatar 15/2 > 8/1   ***

OCP 118%

Betfair Exchange Trophy

1 Mohaayed 20/1 > 16/1
2 Lisp 17/2 > 13/2
3 Western Ryder 8/1 > 7/1
4 Grand Sancy 20/1 > 14/1

OCP 141%     Repeat  OCP 141%


GARRARD.....Even the totally Ignored Valtor appears to have been supported..... amazing.

**** Two drifters in 2nd/3rd, very surprising,doubling our tally so far.


BETFAIR......Very Ironic Name

Punters across the land shown the xmas spirit with a whopping 141% book to finnish proceedings.

Things returned to normal at the business end.

All 4 placed horses returned lower than opening show......another amazing performance from backers.

The 7 races highlighted have yet to see one winner returned higher than opening show.

The odds of this happening would appear large,I am beginning to wonder.....

Next heat will be the Welsh National.

Merry Xmas Noc.

Excuse my ignorance but what time is the opening show taken.

Is it day of race market or first show on course, or when?

And does the whole field shorten?

Often wondered how ante-post first show does compared to day of race.

I often bet at 10 a.m with b365 day of race when they are biggest prices.

My brain's woken up now.

Realised this is first show on course, so 15 mins before race.

You'd need to have what percentage of runners shorten per race to get an angle on it.

Morning Souldancer....... seasons greetings to you.

Not Ignorance at all,I,m sure there are many like us that would like a few more details.

The prices quoted above,freely available on skysports site,are the on course bookmaker prices.Unless I am mistaken,not a rarity I must add,they are the on course opening show followed by the SP returned.

That SP return would be what we see in the result section next day,what firms would pay out punters as a starting price.

Even allowing for the built in bookmaker fractions,the OCP,there should be some price difference in horses,highlighted at SP stage,as money on horses A and B may cause horse C to drift.

In these big betting heats,it would be safe to assume the markets can be volatile,gambled horses are flagged up daily,as are drifters,we even have a site dedicated to quoting all these prices.

Your 2nd point,regarding the whole field is the interesting part.If we used the most recent race on saturday,the Betfair Exchange Hurdle,it may gives a clue.

5 horses were quoted as drifters post race,via SP,........None were placed.

6 horses were quoted as being backed,via SP,........4 of those 6 filled the 1st 4 places

We are early days here,the evidence so far suggests a huge percentage of the horses winning or placed,in these very competitive heats,are being returned below their opening on course price.

Purely on winners alone,of the 7 races quoted,not one winner yet has returned higher than opening show.

Probably just co-incidence..........It,s almost like someone knows the result BEFORE the race.

Hopefully things will change as we progress,and the layers can start to get a little back.

Not sure how I forgot the big boxing day betting heat,lets take a quick look.

King George  26/12/2018

1 Clan Des Obeaux 20/1 > 12/1
2 Thistlecrack  8/1 > 15/2
3 Native River 11/2 > 9/2

OCP 119%

Another 100% result,all three placed horses return lower than opening show.

The betting Industry must be on their knees.......Every winner/placer is backed off the boards

Welsh National  27/12/2018

1 Elegant Escape 4/1 > 3/1
2 Ramses De Teille 10/1 > 10/1
3 Yala Enki  16/1 > 12/1
4 Rons Dream 14/1 > 16/1 ***

OCP 133%

9 races so far,the 100% record of every winning horse not returning above opening show is maintained.

Our 4th drifter Rons Dream,goes out a mammoth 2pts,very suspicious from what we have seen so far.

I will sit down and work out just how much prices have contracted,or extended,in our races so far.

That will give us a figure to take into 2019..........can this run continue?

I'm gonna nitpick here, you didn,t nominate the King George in advance. See Might Bite shortened in that too, so I'll suggest they don't know everything.

Worth pursuing tho.

Because you get this information just before or once race started, you prob need to use in-running to get bets on.

Nitpick away Soul........your view is always respected.

Touched on this subject of SP returns on a couple threads last year.

Rather than bleat about the odd huge On Course Percentage,the continual shortening of horses shown AFTER the result,must affect a high percentage of punters who use firms that settle at SP.

Small sample size yes,but the early signs from these races are worrying,extremely worrying.

The next question......Is this limited to handicaps only ?

204 views since well before Xmas,same thing for some of the other threads on the Ante-Post site,it would appear someone has misplaced their Abacus,why have these threads been stopped from updating ?

Very Odd.

I'm expecting some serious outrage later today noc.. 

Morning GI

You are correct ....... they will be careful to try and keep below 150 %,looks better.

I will go for 147 %,but would not be surprised if its above that.

First race yesterday Aintree

1 Three Musketeers 16/1 > 8/1

2 Point Of Principle 33/1 > 25/1

3 Canardier 7/1 > 6/1

4 Sternrubin 20/1 >16/1

On Course Percentage 135 %


As usual, all 4 horses placed, returned below opening show,SUGGESTING they were supported.

A 135 % book to start friday was very useful for the layers.

Given up on the thread ...... I know BEFORE the race whats going to happen.

Until someone in the Industry takes this to task,it will continue.

FOBT may be the headline maker.

This practice would not be far behind in terms of revenue,it is rife.

Next time you see BOG,5/6/7 places,etc etc etc  just ask yourself WHY.

The above would be a good starting point.

162.6% overound yesterday.