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muzza88
18 Nov 18 17:37
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Date Joined: 31 Dec 08
| Topic/replies: 364 | Blogger: muzza88's blog
Making my yearly trip to Haydock next week and looking forward too it.  Should be an interesting race if all stand their ground and potentially different conditions to the usual bottomless ground if the forecast is correct.

Might bite for me will be primed for this and I’m also tempted to have a dabble on the triple crown. BDM is always dangerous to ignore but last years race was for me , a weak renewal.

Any thoughts?

NB just had a look at the prices and MB is in to best price 6/4 after being available at 5/2 yesterday morning..

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Replies: 42
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 18 Nov 18 18:06
Took the 5/2 Might bite chancing that the long range forecast was right leading up to next saturday, question of whether de boing boing will be fit to ride, downside would be jerry mcgrath Cry
By:
shlotter
When: 19 Nov 18 01:06
Bristol de mai looks a real good thing around Haydock Park. Yala Enki franked the form at Bangor, so I think it merits a decent bet on him
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Nov 18 11:04
I think unless the weather forecasters have got it massively wrong and the heavens open the chances of Bristol De Mai (BDM) and Native River (NR) would be significantly compromised - one might not even run; the shorter distance than The Gold Cup, and sharper track could play into the hand of Might Bite (MB). But 6/4 is very short (4/1 is long gone); a bet on the day probably in doubles and trebles. If successful MB could be just odds against for The King George on Boxing Day, all being well, I believe.
By:
Hibore
When: 19 Nov 18 17:34
Not to sound like a broken record from earlier this year Native River is as effective on goodish ground as Might Bite if previous form is anything to go on. You can argue that Might Bite improves for soft or heavy as his best ever run was 2nd in the Gold Cup.

NR wins at Aintree and Newbury were on similar ground that he will face Saturday. The ground will not be an excuse.

Native won the GC because he stays better and jumped better.....maybe he is just a better horse. The question on Saturday is whether MB can go past the gamest horse in training. NR at 100/30 is a gift.
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Nov 18 20:42
I think the Gold Cup distance and heavy going cost Might Bite (MB) the race at Cheltenham; Might Bite and Native River (NR) both jumped well. MB cruised up to NR 2 fences out, took it up after jumping the last but ran out of it at the business end.

NR will not have ground advantage at Haydock over MB. Let's hope another epic battle between these two gladiators (again).
By:
Hibore
When: 19 Nov 18 23:33
Native River was half a length up at the last and drew away for a near 5 length win. I should know I’ve watched it 100 times Cool

It should be a great race Saturday but the odds should be more like 13/8 Might Bite and 15/8 Native River.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 20 Nov 18 07:55
I'll have some of your 13/8 Bite, Hibore! Wink

Imo, Bite is more speed and Native more stamina, that's why he won the Gold Cup

The pair had it between them throughout. Nothing else got it in, class duo!
By:
sixtwosix
When: 20 Nov 18 18:10
Native River was launched at his fences in the Gold Cup and hit none of them before outstaying Might Bite.

He will never beat Might Bite again imo , over this flatter track on decent ground they are miles apart in ability .......Might Bite to hack up.
By:
Hibore
When: 20 Nov 18 20:24
You would be incredibly stupid to dismiss either one. Neither horse has run at the track and have completely different run styles that could be compromised as the race develops.

The value was and still is Native @ 100/30.

If your faith in MB’s is due to his run at Aintree on good to soft there is some interesting corresponding form over the same track, trip, ground and distance. Native ran 11secs quicker carrying 3lbs less but was a Novice 2 years younger. Not overly scientific but shows he’s not that slow.
By:
shlotter
When: 20 Nov 18 22:27
I am going to suggest both the principles will set it up for someone to swoop. Partly being due to the fact that they both will be first time out and not quite battle hardened just yet. There has been the odd upset in the race in years gone by and around Haydock Park with give in the ground, can prove the undoing of many a champion.
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Nov 18 13:04
Both Might Bite and Native River had won 1st time out; they were also the front two throughout the Gold Cup at Cheltenham on soft going over 1f further; they were also the front two approaching the last there.

I think they are going to be the front two (NR will probably lead with MB just behind) again unless something untoward intervenes; these two are at least 7lbs superior in rating over the others. Here's hoping.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 21 Nov 18 15:33
I'd normally subscribe to the theory about them being not quite battle hardened but there's potentially a £1m bonus in the offing - Native River will be ready I'm sure - been in since July/August I think I read somewhere so likely better prepared than he was last February.

There's always a bit more doubt about the Henderson horses fto in my experience - but he has them ready first up when it really matters
By:
shlotter
When: 21 Nov 18 18:57
I am disappointed of some of the withdrawals ie Politilogue as wanted to see him over an extended trip, should be a good race. MB is plenty short enough first time out at that price!
By:
twonky
When: 22 Nov 18 09:00
If Might Bite is reminiscent of practically ever other top class 3rd season Henderson chaser, then his best days are behind him. The record of gold cup winners fto the following season is poor so he's off the list which leaves BDM, who's 3/3 at Haydock by a total of 111 lengths. He put up the best form figure last season of any horse over 3m and will be primed for this as all his best form is before Xmas. Admittedly softer ground would be better, but he has some decent form on gs.
By:
nocturnal
When: 22 Nov 18 11:29
Insightful Twonky

Just the 5 remain at 48 hr stage.

Fascinating race,any number of angles to cover,all of them with positives / negatives.

Just on the betting alone.......

Some of the sharpest minds on the planet sit across the table from every punter.Just how much work goes into those SP forecasts we see in every racing tabloid ?

Add in the over-round and the odds are stacked against us,unless of course we think they can make the odd mistake.

Struggling to see why MB is so short here,I would have them much closer,if not the other way round slightly.

Native River sits at the top,looking down,the reigning champ.If there is any true cut he surely will take his chance,but I don,t think at all costs.

Yes there is a carrot being dangled,the flip side is he could be the horse of a lifetime.

Too many questions at this stage,interested to see how that markets shapes up raceday,and the early race-times,some of these going reports can be a little misleading.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Nov 18 11:56
Wow, 'twonky', you are correct...only 5 go to post. Interesting race tactic, no doubt.
By:
Hibore
When: 22 Nov 18 16:23
Just watched the Racing UK Jumps preview... Nevison thinks Native River could be 6/1 or 7/1 on the day. What a N*pty
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 22 Nov 18 18:02
It's quite staggering how that guy's is able to offer a view on anything, or more to the point, is even still on tv. absolute ****
By:
The Dragon
When: 23 Nov 18 13:54
will have a dip on bdm based on haydock form and first time outers
By:
dunlaying
When: 23 Nov 18 18:33
Native River won first time up last season but he had been to Larkhill . Has he had the same preparation?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 23 Nov 18 19:36
he went to Exeter for a racecourse gallop (more of a canter visually admittedly) with Thistlecrack.

I re-read the stable tour - he's been back in since August 1.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 23 Nov 18 19:50
Native River is an amazing price, nearly 3/1. Still open to improvement as an 8yo and the gold cup winner, that will do for me.
By:
dunlaying
When: 23 Nov 18 20:02
I thought so too but he seems easy to back .
By:
Millerracing67
When: 24 Nov 18 11:13
On this ground I'd stick with Might bite (11/10) the flat track suits as well.
He'll carry my £££.
By:
shlotter
When: 24 Nov 18 14:34
cough cough pmsl...that's a help towards my snipers birthday party....no after timing ever from me!
By:
Ahoy 1982
When: 25 Nov 18 07:56
Very interesting as regards Hendersons 3rd season chasers Teonky! Can you give many examples? Obviously sprinter bucked the trend.
By:
Autocue
When: 25 Nov 18 08:14
Not convinced by Henderson using jumping as an excuse as this horse used to get well ahead of rivals with exuberant jumping e.g. Feltham and RSA. They're holding him up now and not playing to his strengths. I can imagine Nicky will be rummaging in his cupboard to find something to improve the horse before Kempton.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 25 Nov 18 15:48
No idea what you take from that race.

All the runners had some difficulty with the fences , after each one it was all change as to who was travelling and who was not.

Compared to Sprinter Sacre before the race, Might Bite jumping was very poor and he emptied badly in the straight.

Native River ran a fine race  , he will expect to beat all these at Cheltenham and will no doubt skip the King George now.

Thistlecrack was really struggling with the fences but stayed on well , no idea if he will progress.

Clan Des Obeaux kept going to the line , doubt he will get a good handicap after that .

Bristol De Mai jumped them silly in the straight to win cosily , can they get him to peak form in December and March , some achivement if they can.

Conclusion

Back in his stable Presenting Percy will have lost no sleep over this race.
By:
twonky
When: 26 Nov 18 09:23
Ahoy1982

I can't take credit for the Henderson post as it was in a book I read a few years ago, proberley prior to Sacre Sprinter..the book was basically about the traits of certain trainers, saying mainly they were creatures of habit. A few that I remember were to back Geoff Wragg 2yos 2nd time out over 5 or 6f, Roger Charlton maidens having their 2nd run at York and the Henderson one.

Regarding Sprinter Sacre, you are correct, but in all honesty, his comeback year was not a stellar one for 2 milers which is proofed by his rpr's to his best days. Now regarding Might Bite, to me his run was not surprising. What was disappointing was the comments by connections and blaming the fences, when in reality on the whole his jumping was no worse than the other 4 in the race, until push came to shove and he was taken out of his comfort zone and he reverted back to his novice days, which should be alarming for anyone thinking of betting him at Kempton.

I have no idea as to why his chasers act in this way, when his hurdlers can maintain their form for longer. Ims, the cut off point for his top class chasers was 4/5 grade 1 wins. Next up is Altior, who is a 3rd season chaser and has 5 grade 1s to his name and if the Henderson theory runs true, then he must be taken on this season.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 26 Nov 18 17:59
Good point re-Native and King George now bonus has gone, Six
By:
twonky
When: 27 Dec 18 08:48
Think we can say Might Bite has gone..

Altior up today, should really be upto winning this blindfolded, but Henderson ruled him out of the King George stating he'd had a hard race at sandown..is this sprinter Sacre all over again?
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 06 Nov 19 13:17
2019 11 ENTRIES incl BDeM and LIT.....3pm.Sat.23rd.Nov.2019 in Haydock.

2018 Bristol De Mai 7 11-7 D A Jacob 13/2 (Nigel Twiston-Davies) (5 Ran)
2017 Bristol De Mai 6 11-7 D A Jacob 11/10Fav (Nigel Twiston-Davies) (6 Ran)
2016 Cue Card 10 11-7 P J Brennan 15/8Fav (C L Tizzard) (6 Ran)
2015 Cue Card 9 11-7 P J Brennan 7/4 (C L Tizzard) (5 Ran)
2014 Silviniaco Conti 8 11-7 N D Fehily 10/3 (Paul Nicholls) (9 Ran)
2013 Cue Card 7 11-7 J Tizzard 9/1 (C L Tizzard) (8 Ran)
2012 Silviniaco Conti 6 11-7 R Walsh 7/4 (Paul Nicholls) (5 Ran)
2011 Kauto Star 11 11-7 R Walsh 6/1 (Paul Nicholls) (6 Ran)
2010 Imperial Commander 9 11-7 P J Brennan 10/11Fav (Nigel Twiston-Davies) (7 Ran)
2009 Kauto Star 9 11-7 R Walsh 4/6Fav (Paul Nicholls)
2008 Snoopy Loopy 10 11-7 S E Durack 33/1 (Peter Bowen)


BETTING...
Bristol De Mai 7/4
Lostintranslation 9/4
Clan Des Obeaux SP
Native River SP
Frodon 6/1
Altior 9
Ballyoptic 12/1
Le Bague Au Roi SP
Santini SP
Al Boum Photo SP
Might Biteout 14/1
Balko des Flos 20
Black Corton 20
Elegant Escape 16/1
Kemboy SP Devil
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Nov 19 18:37
If Hendo pitches Altior here instead of the Christy at Ascot over 2m 4f then he'd well be confident stamina would not be an issue for Altior. It's looking like a tasty renewal esp if BDM, Altior and Lostintranslation turn up.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 08 Nov 19 20:32
The Betfair is the race where Kauto Star proved his stamina  , running away from the field up the straight , his jockey looking rather pleased.....think he knew good days awaited aplenty.
By:
muzza88
When: 10 Nov 19 18:39
Any early fancies anyone?

Looks like it could be the usual bottomless ground which may mean a small field.

I have Unsuccessfully opposed BDM the last couple of years and am determined to do so this year, what with I’m not sure!
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Nov 19 19:09
BDM seems to be a specialist for this race, but he's taking on a younger and promising pretender in Lostintranslation, and of course Altior who's unbeaten for 19 consecutive races, but trying the trip for the 1st time.

No Altior, Lostintranslation for me.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 18 Nov 19 17:19
Bristol De Mai
Lostintranslation
Frodon
Elegant Escape
Ballyoptic
Altior

Looks a penalty kick for BDM to me.
Soft ground at Haydock is his ideal scenario.
I think Lostintranslation will be in for a big shock ,even if he handles the ground  , this won't be anything like his win at Carlisle.
By:
kavvie
When: 19 Nov 19 20:16
lost in translation is a good thing.
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Nov 19 20:45
I think BDM's claim to fame was beating Cue Card on heavy ground several seasons ago; beat a half-baked regressing Native River on unsuitable ground last season; not done much since then, if my recollection is correct.

So, the young promising pretender Lostintranslation for me on fitness and potential; 7/4 is good price too if Altior is absent.
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