Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessey) 1st December 2018

Studied the form and videos, and I am happy to take 28/1 JANIKA for this one, boosted by ladies. The Henderson/Munir/Jacobs team, with horse that tore into his first two fence victories in Auteuil before transferringocer here. Two of his victims have gone on to show  improved form since, so if he is given a weight of 145 or lower next week, I can see him being very competitive off that Mark. Fingers crossed Hendo thinks the same.

Followed you in, thanks for the heads up. I never had much time for sniveling Nicky but I think he's going to have a great year. For all his faults, there are few better at having them right on the day.

Good work Shockster.........I like that Gold Cup angle up the top.

A few stats from another site looking at last 12 runnings

11/12  Aged 6-8
6/12   LTO winners
7/12  Ran within 55 days
7/12  Top 3 betting
4/12  Winning favourites
9/12  Ran at Newbury
8/12  Won at Newbury
11/12  Minimum 3 runs at 3m or beyond
11/12  Minimum 4 chase runs
9/12  Rated 150 or above
7/12  One run or more current season.

Lowest winning rating 145 (State of play)

Highest rating 174 (The Tank)

Only Denman has carried more than 11-06 to victory in those 12 runnings.

Bobs Worth / Many Clouds both carried 11-06 as 7 yr olds.

Native River carried 11-01 back in 2016 as a 6 yr old.

Some fantastic horses have taken this on the way to much better things.

Looking at the entry this far out,using the age stats,a rating above 150,weight limit 11-06,leaves a very select few.

Al Boum Photo
Snow Falcon
Black Corton
Clan Des Obeaux
Kemboy
American
Mister Whitaker
Invitation Only
Monbeg Notorious
Willoughby Court
Elegant Escape
Yala Enki

Not in anyway a definitive guide to finding the winner,jeez if it was that easy we would not be on here discussing it.

Plenty will change prior to final decs,weights,jockey bookings and any headgear to name just a few.

The one I do like is in there,guesswork at this stage if he runs here.

The domination of the Irish horses last season,not withstanding the GC,cannot be overlooked,especially in staying chases.Long thought of this as a good guide for those English / Irish trainers that want an early indicator just where their horses may stand in handicap terms,in effect a scouting trip.

Come back to this much nearer the time,to try and narrow down that shortlist,be interesting to see how many of those stand their ground,and of course how they run.

With Thistlecrack likely to run in the Betfair Chase, it looks like Kemboy will now carry top weight.  It also looks like rain will be around from the middle of next week.

Big ask for Kemboy to win, but I think he has a real chance. I'll add Thomas Patrick and Ms Parfois for my 3 against the field.

If I'm being honest I don't think there is that much depth to this race. Quite a lot of exposed horses who won't be good enough.

yes, rose tinted spectacles from me thinking Thistlecrack would run here - it makes sense for him to run at Haydock and give Team Tizzard two chances at the £1m bonus - if he were to win on Saturday, I'd imagine he'll run in the King George and they'll send Native River elsewhere.Quite a big if though...

I like Thomas Patrick and Ms Parfois too - maybe American (if it rains)

Rock The Kasbah is starting to build a decent body of work over fences - I think the better ground is key to himin the sense that it helps his jumping.It would be a quick turnaround but technically 2lb well in for his Cheltenham win last w/e.

I have to wait before striking a bet, personally - would like to have a better idea about the likely ground

thanks, shockster - I remember the RTK comments now, short term memory is shocking these days...

Promising for the likes of Thomas Patrick and American on the ground front then - and for the meeting generally given there are still plenty of horses awaiting proper winter ground for a run

If the horse I fancy goes, once I have got my wedge on it I will post my sound advice. My a..e in bits after many consecutive weekends of fine wines, Guinness and champagne from horsey profits...

ahh thomas patrick would have a chance at dee weights like. i wouldnt be putting off ye him now

Plenty of rain now in the Newbury forecast. Can't wait to be getting on the train at 5.58am on Friday morning.

yes, I noticed that - it kinda puts me off American for this a little bit, less so Ms Parfois (based on what I've read I'd be pretty sure Ms Parfois will run at Newbury but less so American).

I think this race declares Thursday and the Rehearsal Chase Friday. Is that right?

Enjoy, Shockster - never been to Newbury, I was at Haydock on Saturday - thoroughly enjoyable but the rain surely means bigger fields this w/e which will be more of a spectacle (both the novices chases at the Newbury meeting look interesting as well even though some are double entered).

I think Flying Angel is an interesting possible . Go back to his early form and he looks like a Class 2 horse . Good hurdle form and he beat Cloudy Dream and Top Notch at levels . He goes on any ground and is in form . The trip is the problem . But he had a wind op after one failure at three miles and he ran well enough behind Definitly Red to suggest that he could stay . Only 7 and with no weight I will back him if declared .

Newbury is a long way from Yorkshire but myself and a few lads have been going to this meeting since 2005. Smashing little town as well. Funnily enough I missed Saturday as usually get to Haydock and Aintree as not far at all.

Not sure if you noticed but as it stands Kemboy only has a 3lb penalty not 4lb as this would take him to 11st 13lb and 11st 12lb is the max weight.  We were discussing previously on another thread about a similar scenario regarding Terrefort.

Big price Flying Angel if he did come back but distance has to be a worry.  Doesn't cost a lot to find out though at the price.

Noel Fehily is Jocked up on American at NEWCASTLE on the Racing Post site.  It looks as if Fehily will be there for Summerville Boy, so it could have a bearing on where American runs?????

Thomas Patrick I have been steadily backing.  I have him on my handicap four pound better then his mark. Should be a good race. Best of luck to one and all.

Kemboy has escaped his penalty and actually runs off 157.  No penalties to increase a weight above 11st12lb. He and Black Corton are Joint top weights.

unfortunately no kemboy due to ferry issues

just becoming another 3 mile Saturday handicap these days,declining year by year imo,very uninspiring

remember backing silent valley in this against bright highway, don't think silent valley could win Saturday,s race

mind you he is about 50,

Bregawn belting the last in 1982 ,giving Captain John a 3 length start and then flying past him .....he was some horse.