Horse Antepost
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Melbourne Cup
Melbourne Cup
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SO WHO WINS ?
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Four of the 35 top-ranked horses in the Melbourne Cup entries will be re-examined before acceptance time to determine their fitness.
Racing Victoria veterinarians on Friday completed their inspection of the 35 horses with acceptances for the 24-horse field taken at 4.30pm on Saturday. The horse to be re-tested on Saturday morning are Prize Money (trainer Saeed Bin Suroor), Red Verdon (Ed Dunlop), Lord Fandango (Archie Alexander) and Nakeeta (Iain Jardine). Red Verdon, who was found to have a bruised heel on Thursday, worked on Friday and passed inspection but will be re-examined as a precaution. Lord Fandango, who contested Wednesday's Bendigo Cup, presented with lameness in his right hind leg and needs a further examination. The RV vets will consider the results of precautionary X-rays on the front fetlocks of both Prize Money and Nakeeta as part of their re-inspections. The Cup entrants who run in Saturday's Lexus Stakes (2500m) at Flemington will be re-examined after the race to re-confirm their suitability as acceptors, as will Thinkin' Big following the Victoria Derby (2500m). Trainer Darren Weir has also confirmed Tosen Basil will not run in the Melbourne Cup. |
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Well done Mystic , if you have backed the Prince for both races. He ran a great race this morning - great for Charlie Fellows - he was jumping up and down in the stands.
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Thanks RozelKid. I had a small bet on him on here for the Lexus (poor price - got Rule 4'd), I would have been kicking myself if he'd gone unbacked & won! It's not ideal running 3 days before the big one but at least he's in (as long as the vet lets him run!) and today's win should improve his prospects for HK further down the line.
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Nakeeta gets in after two more runners come out -unluckily for me one of those two was Tosen Brasil who was my 3rd choice , the other being Ed Dunlop's Red Vardon.
Final Field 1 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor) 57.5 2 AVILIUS (GB) (James Cummings) 54.5 3 ACE HIGH (David Payne) 55.0 4 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien) 56.5 5 MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) (Ian Williams) 56.0 6 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) (Chris Waller) 55.5 7 MUNTAHAA (IRE) (John Gosden) 55.5 8 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) (Yoshito Yahagi) 55.5 9 SOUND CHECK (GER) (Michael Moroney) 55.5 10 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien) 51.0 11 MARMELO (GB) (Hughie Morrison) 55.0 12 CROSS COUNTER (GB) (Charlie Appleby) 51.0 13 YOUNGSTAR (Chris Waller) 51.5 14 YUCATAN (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien) 54.5 15 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) (Michael Moroney) 54.0 16 VENTURA STORM (IRE) (Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig) 54.0 17 RED CARDINAL (IRE) (Darren Weir) 54.0 18 AUVRAY (FR) (Richard Freedman) 54.0 19 FINCHE (GB) (Chris Waller) 54.0 20 RUNAWAY (Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott) 52.0 (inc 1.5kg pen) 21 SIR CHARLES ROAD (O’Sullivan and Scott) 53.0 22 ZACADA (NZ) (Baker and Forsman) 53.0 23 NAKEETA (GB) (Iain Jardine) 53.0 24 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) (Charlie Fellowes) 53.0 |
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Looks as though PoA would've missed out by 2 places if he'd not won the Hotham, so it was the right thing to do. The good news is that he escapes a penalty and stays on 53kg, so has a decent weight pull with the favourite.
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Yeah, its looking good for POA - did you hear Fellows talk about the horse after the win ?- interesting comments about them only just sorting out the horses psychological problems after he turned 5yo.
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Im still siding with this Magic Circle - 9/1 is still on offer which i think is a couple of points too big.
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Hi RozelKid, no I didn't see that - interesting.
Good luck with Magic Circle. |
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The weather looks bad for the next 24s in Melbourne- Meteoearth's satellite images show that in approx 3 hours from now its going to start raining and will be getting steadily worse into Tuesday Morning their time - heavy rain and thunderstorms forcast for the entire day at the track
I cant see how its not going to be soft , it could even be worse as the more accurate meteoearth images show no hold up in the rain. |
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My Final Selections
Magic Circle, Sound Check, Marmello , Venger Masque - FC and tri combos Ive already backed Chestnut Coat - but the rain will most likely scupper any chance he had . I've put Marmello in because i think the rain will be in his favour. Ive added these two Michael Moroney horses- just have a feeling that they could outrun their odds. |
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I can see where you're coming from with Sound Check, he should go on the ground if it gets soft and has a nice weight pull with Best Solution on their Grosser Preis Von Berlin form.
Soft ground might not be in Prince Of Arran's favour. It might not suit Cliffs Of Moher either, who I fear most and have had a saver (earlier) on him. Couldn't resist also chucking a few quid at Youngstar who is a potential improver at the trip (although McEvoy has desrted her in favour of Cross Counter). |
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Track will be watered....
“Victoria Racing Club’s Executive General Manager Racing, Leigh Jordon and Track Manager, Liam O’Keeffe spoke with the Head Forecaster at the Weather Bureau at 5pm today (Monday) and were informed there had been a change to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. “No rain is forecast tonight, so the Track Manager will now apply 5mm of irrigation overnight. “The rail has been moved out two metres from its true position.” The Bureau of Meteorology forecast for Melbourne Cup day at Flemington is; Possible rainfall - Five to 15mm Chance of any rain – 95% Melbourne area forecast - Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain, easing to showers during the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon. Light winds tending cooler south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon then becoming light in the evening. The Flemington track was rated a good (4) racing surface at 9am on Monday. |
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going to hold on my bets until I know what’s what...
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Its one of them , they will be damned if they do water and it turns up soft with the forecast storms , and damned if they dont and the rain passes.
I think there is a very good chance that we will see umbrellas from the first race onwards past the feature race , just cant see how they will escape it. |
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nakeeta 4/1 to be in 1st 10 on here ......5th last year looks big to me
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funny how things workout ....last years ebor... nakeeta beat magic circle over 5l and hes now better off at weights
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Marmelo won't mind a softer surface, worth a go at 14/1, also Who Shot Thebarman is worth a try at 66/1
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Not a race i'm overly interested in (probably due to the time difference) but i've had a W/4TBP bet on the ex-Andre Fabre trained Finche @ 25.0 and 6.0.
Good luck all. |
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Probably wiser to have left it alone but ended up with Magic Circle and Finche. Finche is the one of the two most likely to be inconvenienced by showers but most of these won't want anything like soft ground.
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For the past hour they have been getting heavy rain and thunderstorms, Its 8.25 am there right now i am watching cars drive through what i would describe as streams of water on the roads nearby the course
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Flemington track manager Liam O'Keeffe has stated he expects heavy ground by RACE 2
 - they have already had 10mm between 8am and 10am their time.... and dont expect any break in the rain all day. He said on radio that they could be getting at least another 20-30mm + as there seems no hold up in the rain and with the forecast thunderstorms there could be arguments of the track being unraceable.Official going is SOFT , what they call a grade 5. |
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he has just said they expect 10mm per hour for the next 4 hours -
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Official - now a Grade 6 , its just changed again.
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now officially HEAVY - grade 8.
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I'll be backing the horse in gumboots
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and they watered
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Yeah because if it didnt rain all the overseas people would crack the sh1ts
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first race report
Source: Racenet.com.au Winning jockey Mark Zahra said the conditions were “pretty hard going”, partnering the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained Bella Rosa to victory in the Group III Bumble Stakes (1000m). Straight after the race stewards downgraded the track to a heavy (8) but the surface is expected to to deteriorate further as rain continues to fall. “It’s pretty hard going out there, my goggles are full of water and so are my boots,” Zahra said. “A lot of surface water, easily a heavy (8) now and you’d think it will be a heavy (10) by the time the Cup comes around. You’d usually call them off but not today.” Other jockeys that rode in the race reported. Brett Prebble - They won’t be whinging it’s too hard. It’s genuine slow and heavy’s not too far away. Subzeroish. Beau Mertens – It’s a bit crazy. They were the craziest conditions I’ve ridden in. Couldn’t see two metres in front of myself but lucky I’m done for the day and can go home now. Damien Oliver – There’s a fair bit of surface water out there. I had trouble seeing. I’ve ridden in some pretty horrendous conditions and it’s pretty ordinary out there but I think once the water has a chance to get away it shouldn’t be too bad. |
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Damian Oliver
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He is right though, Flemington has very good drainage
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track upgraded from 8 to 7 i.e HEAVY to SOFT
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Huge runs from PoA and Marmelo, but what a finish from Cross Counter - and what a year for Godolphin & Appleby! Congrats to connections & any backers.
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Sad news about Cliffs Of Moher.
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Yep pretty sad for the team.
Thought POA was tremendous backing up so soon. Winner could’ve carried top weight and still run a place imo Feel for Marmello...no chance vs CC at those weights. As for Finche...Champion Hurdle dream lives on lol |
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Don't know quite what to make of Finche. For more than 3/4 the of race I thought he was going to win but at the business end he hasn't picked up as well as the other three. Too prominent a trip, ground or maybe just not good enough. Would like to see him back on a quicker surface. That should answer some of those questions.
Absolutely dire effort from Magic Circle. Looked very slow and never competitive. Bookmakers no doubt delighted that he was never going to make even the extended places. I don't think he really wants soft but it was less of an excuse for him than many of the others. At least it saved Koukash making a fool of himself. |
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Just read that Magic Circle broke a blood vessel. That might explain things although I am never too sure with this excuse. For instance if he broke a blood vessel after the line would that have affected his performance throughout the race? Jock was clearly unaware of anything when making his post race comment.
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I still cant work out if they have gone too slow or what condition the ground was
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