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impossible123
05 Oct 18 12:47
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 12,301 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
The two main protagonists are Cracksman and Roaring Lion both trained by Gosden. Gosden: "Cracksman and possibly Roaring Lion could go for the Champion Stakes, while the latter has the option of the QEII, where we could run Without Parole.
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Report impossible123 October 5, 2018 1:48 PM BST
It seems Gosden is more sure about where Cracksman is going next than Roaring Lion; $64k question is will he run both?
Report impossible123 October 6, 2018 8:20 PM BST
It's two weeks to Ascot Champions Day and the going is soft after a deluge today. The forecast next week is for settled weather however, not so the following with significant rain forecast. If so, Roaring Lion could be diverted to The QEII Stakes and Cracksman could ultimately get the condition he thrives on.
Report Figgis October 8, 2018 12:09 PM BST
Could Cracksman have beaten Cloth Of Stars by more than a length? Silly. We'll never know but the market would've expected him to.

As for the Champion Stakes, even though I think 12f would've seen him in a better light he's still the one to beat for me. Roaring Lion, if running, will only receive 4lbs and so will need a career peak in my view. If it can be trusted that Cracksman is in good health then I do see it as 'his to lose', whatever the ground. Not a race to get involved in right now though unless you have an inside line to Clarehaven Wink
Report woodmanchester October 8, 2018 12:19 PM BST
Previously lumped up Roaring Lion for Chamption Stakes. Everything crossed now!
Report roadrunner46 October 8, 2018 1:27 PM BST
should be another good battle in this race hopefully if the two market leaders turn up, roaring lion what
a revelation that has been this season, although its clear as day the horse has had some tough races this
season
Report impossible123 October 8, 2018 5:58 PM BST
Connections of Roaring Lion had indicated he'd run in The QEII should the ground come up soft (good to soft would be ok) as 10f would be stamina testing (against Cracksman). If missing this and QEII Roaring Lion could be America bound or retired (early).
Report Millerracing67 October 8, 2018 9:36 PM BST
The ground will be key. If it's very soft, like last yr, then I wouldn't expect Lion to line up?  On Gd ground, I'd expect him to have Cracksman's measure over 10f.
Report impossible123 October 9, 2018 11:26 AM BST
Will Gosden run Roaring Lion against Cracksman on softish ground eg good to soft, let alone soft or worse? Personally, I'd not think so, why? The former has done more that enough to justify a no-show at Ascot on non-ideal ground definitely and/or against Cracksman; not even The QEII, maybe America given ownership, but not both, I believe.

Cracksman needs to win his finale Gp 1 race to bolster his breeding value, I firmly believe.
Report woodmanchester October 10, 2018 11:45 AM BST
Got 4 doubles rolling up on Roaring Lion for Champion Stks too. Would be laying but not at 4.8 and that's only to £58. If it wasn't for the eventual going conditions and QEII entry, i'd be backing again

Bright and sunny here past two days so where there's life...
Report woodmanchester October 10, 2018 11:48 AM BST
Just looked at the advanced forecast: Some light rain with occasional sunny spell
Report impossible123 October 10, 2018 5:12 PM BST
The weather next week is a bit dodgy for Roaring Lion, and not easy to call. I backed him early (3/1) but laid off most, and backed Cracksman too at 3/1 and 5/2 in singles, doubles and trebles with Kew Gardens, (Enable or Sea Of Class) and Might Bite for The King George at Kempton. I believe the price of Cracksman will drop significantly if Roaring Lion is rerouted or the ground becomes soft.
Report Millerracing67 October 10, 2018 9:39 PM BST
My worry with the Ascot ground, would be it didn't take a lot of rain a week past last Sat to change the ground to soft??? & why hold a meeting their so close to Champions Day??? That's a strange 1 Imo???
Report impossible123 October 10, 2018 9:49 PM BST
I agree, October is usually easy ground at Ascot. I think Ascot cannot hold Champions Day earlier eg Sept as it would clash with the Irish equivalent and also not conducive for any fancy runners in The Arc.
Report impossible123 October 12, 2018 4:33 PM BST
Inclement weather forecast for next week; soft ground specialist order of the day perhaps.
Report Millerracing67 October 13, 2018 11:28 AM BST
Cheek-ps for Cracksman? Prob needs them after his last 2 runs?
Though I think rain is more important for him.
& it will prob get rid of the main danger RL ?
He looks sure to go QEII if it's soft.
Report impossible123 October 14, 2018 1:44 PM BST
The ground at Ascot is good to soft at the moment, and it is still lashing down since last night; rain is also expected on Monday with about 30mm between now and race day. But mid thursday onward is fine weather till race day, according to weather forecast.

Will Roaring Lion run here or at all? Could he be rerouted to America in November instead?
Report Millerracing67 October 14, 2018 7:27 PM BST
They do sponsor the meeting, so would expect they won't their best horse to run RL :-)
Am sure already said if it's very soft it's going to be the QEII, on g/s it's the Champion.
Report impossible123 October 14, 2018 7:54 PM BST
The going has changed to soft after 11mm Sunday morning to 10am with 4mm yesterday, and it is still raining. With more forecast tomorrow plus the occasional ones on tuesday and wednesday the going could only head south. But thursday onward it is forecast to be dry.
Report impossible123 October 15, 2018 10:10 AM BST
Straight Course: Soft, Heavy in patches. Round Course: Heavy, Soft in places; 40mm fell on sunday alone to 8am today; occasional showers are forecast for today with dry weather forecast for tomorrow through to saturday.

Will Roaring Lion show up? If so, very, very unlikely this race (surely); QEII perhaps or Breeders Cup turf.
Report impossible123 October 15, 2018 5:33 PM BST
Even if the weather forecast is correct and the ground dries up a little the Round Course (Champion race) would only be on the easy side of soft from the present heavy. However, the Straight Course (QEII race) would be soft (possibly good to soft) thus making the QEII race a more likely option for him. Even then, if connections fear he might have a hard race at Ascot the Breeders Cup Turf would turn out to be a better proposition especially if Enable is absent, I think.
Report Millerracing67 October 17, 2018 5:16 PM BST
Yes, the str course of Ascot tends to dry quicker than the round.
"If" it stays dry? with a nice drying wind? It could well be soft/g/s for the QEII come Sat?
Which looks now the likely race for RL. He did handle g/s as a 2yo well enough.
We shall see, hopefully no heavy in the going (str or round) come Sat :-)
Report impossible123 October 17, 2018 5:33 PM BST
The markets here are indicating he'll swerve this race and run in the QEII Stakes instead thus providing Cracksman with an excellent chance of winning his swansong race - here's hoping.
Report impossible123 October 17, 2018 5:34 PM BST
3mm today, but dry till race day forecast.
Report gpz6316 October 17, 2018 9:21 PM BST
i think it makes sense to run rl over a mile and let his finale be at the breeders cup . i think he will prove to be a exceptional sire
Report gpz6316 October 17, 2018 9:27 PM BST
very similar to northern dancer and saddlers wells in physique and demeanour
Report the bloob October 17, 2018 10:07 PM BST
I think with the way the straight dries it could be Good to Soft in the straight on Saturday, I would worry that 1m is a bit on the short side, especially given a strong pace. I think Roaring Lion may be vulnerable to Receletos, a miler with form on soft
Report impossible123 October 17, 2018 11:02 PM BST
Roaring Lion: 10f on heavy or soft (in the straight) not only will sap his stamina to breaking point it will also blunt his ability to quicken two negatives that will be too insurmountable against Cracksman who'll have his ideal ground for once; the QEII would be a better proposition, and the markets are alluding to that too.

If America bound his target race seems to be the Breeders Cup Turf, and his potent adversary is Enable which makes me believe if he wins on saturday that will be it for him - he'd be retired. He'd have won most, if not all, the races he could or should have; winning on saturday is the perfect finale for him.
Report impossible123 October 18, 2018 10:10 AM BST
Finally, it's out - Roaring Lion is running in the QEII Stakes NOT Champion. The market was correct once again; still a shame though, but a sensible decision by connections in the end.
Report lewisham ranger October 18, 2018 11:54 AM BST
feels like a cynical attempt to put roaring lion in the qe2 as they know he's quite likely to outstay the opposition.
Report gpz6316 October 18, 2018 9:11 PM BST
i will say this,  gosden is looking for a happy ending with cracksman . given rl would be in trouble no doubt over 1m2f with plenty of give at ascot a stiff course . it makes sense he runs in the qe11 . if you think hes gonna duck bc turf cos enable runs from the yard , no way . only if he loses his mojo .hes perfect horse for that race
Report lewisham ranger October 19, 2018 9:03 AM BST
I see cracksman as being massively vulnerable here and you can almost smell an upset. cracksman hasn't been keen on his racing all year

quite like the chances of capri, given could turn into a gruelling test given the ground, and this horse already won over the leger trip.
Report twonky October 19, 2018 10:13 AM BST
Cracksman is the most likely and logical winner, though the 17 week break, wide draw and application of headgear are a worry.
Crystal Ocean is laughably rated better than Cracksman, despite not winning a group 1. I said after the KG that he was gone and would not win another race. His run against an unfit Enable reinforced my opinion.
Capri is in here as an afterthought, very difficult to see a stayer winning this whatever the ground.
Monarch Glen..12/1..couldn't have him at 120/1. A 17 week break and his best run was placed in a group 3..joke of a price.
Subway Dancer..no chance
Maverick Wave...as above and been off for a year.
Verbal Dexterity..group 1 win and placed at 2 but shown nothing in 2 runs over 10f at 3. Looks a miler but would be folly to write off anything that Bolger sends over.
Rhododendron, won 3 group 1s and placed in 4. Figures look uninspiring this season, but has been tenderly ridden last 2 runs and soft ground looks a plus..prob pacesetter for Capri, but as she stays further, it's possible that she won't be stopping.

In conclusion, Cracksman according to my way of thinking, can run 8lbs below his best and still beat Crystal Ocean, is the logical winner, but at the prices I prefer Rhododendrum 33/1 ew. It's quite possible that she has fallen out of love with the game, but a multiple group 1 winning and placed horse cannot go unbacked at that price.
Report impossible123 October 19, 2018 12:23 PM BST
Cracksman is all the rage with his stablemate out despite not been out for a long while, but his trainer's ability is proven vis-a-vis Enable at Kempton; Rhododendron was a sick horse post her French Oaks (burst blood vessel) then a bug in the stable; Capri had had a hard race in The Arc and the Long Distance race over 2m deemed to taxing on heavy ground hence here instead.

Crystal Ocean has achieved more in this season than the others put together courtesy of the absence of Enable and Cracksman and early retirement of Minding, etc; Poets World was the only credible and comparable competitor, the rest non-entities.

The present 5/6 is not a punting proposition for most no doubt the pro will see it differently on race day if the horse is focused. I think he is Gosden's best chance at Ascot despite the accessory.
Report ReaseHeath October 19, 2018 2:33 PM BST
Not sure what Rhododendron's burst blood vessel in the French Oaks has to do with the price of fish - given it was all of 16 months ago and she's won two Group 1s since then...

I accept her form since the Lockinge suggests she might have fallen out of love with the game.
Report woodmanchester October 19, 2018 3:58 PM BST
Fuming. Led to believe ages ago it was the English Champion Stakes for Roaring Lion after the Irish equivalent. Huge bets therefore but to be scratched to run over a mile makes me very angry! Angry
Report impossible123 October 19, 2018 4:47 PM BST
Same here after The Juddmonte however, laid off most at 4.5 after The Irish equivalent given the hard race he'd had there, Gosden's lack of conviction compared to Cracksman and the likelihood of easier ground at Ascot this time of the year - hope you did the same. I think, all things considered, this is the correct position as America could be beckoning post The QEII Stakes.
Report woodmanchester October 19, 2018 4:56 PM BST
...but Roaring Lion is a 10 furlong horse - end of

No point laying at the big prices. Rather do my dosh in style!
Report woodmanchester October 19, 2018 4:57 PM BST
PS When it didn't look good, backed Cracksman at 9/4 though
Report impossible123 October 19, 2018 5:05 PM BST
Got some Cracksman at 5/2 but generous 'sportsbook' offered 40% above stake money in a cashout. Are they for real? Similarly Too Darn Hot (4/1) too. But they suspended cashout on The Arc two weeks prior to event; amazing business strategy only executed by the so called 'sportsbook' traders and not others.
Report woodmanchester October 19, 2018 5:10 PM BST
Wouldn't bother me if Cracksman flops (every chance) and Roaring finds 1 mile too sharp. Could lay my Cracksman bet

Serve Gosden right!
Report impossible123 October 19, 2018 5:27 PM BST
Roaring Lion ran a credible 2000G, and he's improved and matured since. He was going the best until the 2f marker in The Derby; I think a mile tomorrow will be ok, even the ground.

Cracksman needs to win to bolster his stud value and connections know that otherwise he'd have been packed off to stud duties before now. And I think he'll do it with aplomb tomorrow (with headgear).
Report woodmanchester October 19, 2018 7:41 PM BST
Wouldn't have thought stud value a benefit with a horse needing headgear?
Report charwell. October 19, 2018 8:13 PM BST
Serve Gosden right!

silly thing to say. RL would not be as effective over 10f in this going and 10f ideal for Cracksman. He did what most would have done and the market expected.
Report impossible123 October 20, 2018 3:59 PM BST
Cracksman, what a winner? Silenced all his doubters, big time. Well done!
Report woodmanchester October 20, 2018 5:46 PM BST
Lion always better over 10 furlongs, imo

...but yes, don't think Roaring would have beaten Cracksman today

Won me enough to rest on my laurels this season anyway but don't know what to make of a stud horse needing headgear?
Report metro john October 20, 2018 7:20 PM BST
Cracksman ran to around 135/136  today which  my opinion  makes this the worlds number1, Brilliant performance on desirable ground.
Report impossible123 October 20, 2018 8:30 PM BST
Shame the Arc was not run on softish ground otherwise Cracksman would have been the winner for sure, I firmly believe; 5/2 and more, tasty indeed for backers...if only I'd had him with Too Darn Hot (Dewhurst) and Enable (at big prices).
Report Figgis October 20, 2018 9:17 PM BST
MJ, steady on there, you'll be accused of being a mindless media hype follower Wink
Report roadrunner46 October 20, 2018 11:59 PM BST
good to see crystal ocean scramble home for 2nd, with the money coming for capri, wasnt a viable f/c bet, considering it was so far behind in the ratings. great to see cracksman murder them again in his favourite
race. WD cracksman backers and john gosden for excellent placing of his horses this season to win as many
top races as possible.
Report metro john October 21, 2018 11:01 AM BST
Figgis, The ground was just perfect for Cracksman, not many Group1 races are  won in that style on that ground, I suppose we should question the ability of those behind to handle that ground and to question  that form, admittedly non would have encountered quite such testing conditions, but Crystal Ocean, Capri and  Subway Dancer had in the past  performed to a similar level in slightly less testing  good to soft, but it must be said  Crystal Ocean and Capri both better on a firmer surface. My own opinion is that not many make it above 130 a figure I am happy to work back through, for most Top Group1 races, and in this instance I am happy enough with the final figure on that ground.
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 11:08 AM BST
MJ, I agree it was a very good performance and was good enough to win any of the last 5 renewals. Actually I think you're allowing the others too much of an excuse on the ground. Couldn't have been any worse than good to soft looking at those times.
Report metro john October 21, 2018 11:30 AM BST
Hi Figgis,The rp standard was 4 seconds +  above the norm, that is testing enough, and  those behind better on better ground.  The best fit looks ok, but can be disputed, Similar to Harbinger but not quite the same class: of contenders, I always argued that Workforce had won the Derby on  a pretty quick surface: 2m 31.33s (fast by 3.17s)  and yet  his fans were confident that Workforce was ground reliant and better on softer, this point is arguable but alas his 129rp rating achieved in the Derby was only bettered by his 130 rp achieved in the Arc just 1 lb difference? on different ground?

Harbinger was better than was given credit.
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 11:37 AM BST
MJ, well on the clock, after allowing for softer the ground, Workforce put up a slower performance in the Arc than the Derby. Don't think he needed to be right at his best to win that Arc. The way these form ratings work though they will nearly always give higher ratings if possible for what they consider the more prestigious race. I agree Workforce was at least as good on fast ground. Don't know how anyone can argue to the contrary after the Derby.
Report metro john October 21, 2018 11:51 AM BST
Yes Figgis, If Workforce unperformed at Ascot it was not the ground to blame. Subjective stuff handicapping!Laugh
Report metro john October 21, 2018 11:56 AM BST
Watch the one of the outlier races of fall time https://youtu.be/mo7pEsp2WKc-
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 12:03 PM BST
MJ, backed him big that day, posted on here Happy
Report metro john October 21, 2018 12:07 PM BST
AwesomeCool  A late developer never stopped improving, well not the Frankel record at 2yrs, this talent was never bottled it just was, and boy would it have won the Arc? Oh Yes, but we will never know!
Report metro john October 21, 2018 12:39 PM BST
Cracksman winning the 2018 Champion Stakes - https://youtu.be/TqiV30g5ljw

1st Cracksman (135)
2nd Crystal Ocean (122)
3rd Subway Dancer (121)
4th Capri (120)
5th Rhododendron (115)

Superb performance!
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 12:39 PM BST
MJ, that's a disadvantage many of these much improved older horses are faced with when it comes to rating them. They will be unfairly pegged down because they weren't superstars at 2 or 3, or even 4. Then when they get to 4 they probably aren't going to keep giving career peaks at that age. They will run one or two great efforts which will be viewed with suspicion because they weren't carrying all before them earlier in their career. Only in horse racing!

I would take very short odds that had Poet's Word not been in the POW not one person in the media or any of the rating services would've said Cracksman ran below form or was disappointing that day.
Report metro john October 21, 2018 12:59 PM BST
Good point Figgis!
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 1:11 PM BST
Cracksman (135)

ShockedWink

Metro, i appreciate the 235 is only your opinion, but you're suggesting that ignoring the filly allowance, Cracksman would beat Enable by over 4.5L in an Arc ?
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 1:12 PM BST
135 Laugh
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 1:26 PM BST
I'd say last year Enable would've edged it. This year, however, is a different matter. I think Cloth Of Stars would've finished close to Crystal Ocean yesterday, so MJ's rating isn't far from my own view.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 1:35 PM BST
OK, it's all about opinions anyway, let's continue the conversation late afternoon on October 6th 2019 Wink
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 1:47 PM BST
Andrew, occasionally I've seen a horse not really progress from 3 to 4 but then make belated improvement at the age of 5. Who's to say Enable can't do that? Particularly as she only ran twice this year. My mind isn't closed to what she might do as a 5yo but at the moment I'm viewing her on what I've seen this year, especially as we're concerned with a filly that's unlikely to be undervalued in the market.
Report brigust1 October 21, 2018 3:55 PM BST
Hi Metro, how are you?

You say we don't know about Cracksman winning the Arc well we do actually. JG is one of the most respected trainers and although I wish he had run I have to believe he would have been well beaten.
I don't know if you remember Bristol de Mai last season winning by miles in heavy ground at Haydock and being given a rating of 180. He was last seasons best chaser in the world even though Mite Bite beat him miles at Kempton on soft ground and easily at Aintree. He was rated way above both Mite Bite and the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Native River simply by winning an early season rubbish race easily. These joke ratings on bad ground are just that. A joke. Cracksman is rated the best horse in Europe without winning a single top class race in the heat of the season. He was too slow to win at best an average Derby, too slow to win the Irish Derby, too slow to win the Prince of Wales, and according to his trainer too slow to win the King George and 2 Arcs.
Personally I would give him the same rating as was given Poets Word in the POW, that is flat racing at it's best. Both horses trained for the race and neither inconvenienced by the ground. Don't forget JG took Cracksman out of the Dante because of the soft ground. He just found out by experience that although he acted perfectly on top of the ground he was slow and the soft ground inconvenienced the opposition more.
Report brigust1 October 21, 2018 4:00 PM BST
Cracksman won 4 Group 1 races all of which no trainer in Europe would have in their top ten by status. He beat 4 horses into second place and their 40 combined previous runs none had won a Group 1 race. That is how bad the ground affects these races.
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 4:04 PM BST
Have to remember these posts when O'Brien is being criticised for badly campaigning his horses. Maybe he's not so 'respected' Wink
Report brigust1 October 21, 2018 4:18 PM BST
AOB is constantly badly campaigning his horses. Saxon Warrior outstayed in the Derby then goes for the Irish Derby then the Eclipse. JG saw Roaring Lion outstayed in the Derby then went straight for the Eclipse. NO comparison.
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 4:21 PM BST
There's this very high profile horse right. He's overrated and therefore overvalued in the market. But I'm going to back him ante post for every Gp1 he could be aimed at. Even though he needs soft ground and is unlikely to get it most of the time. And best of all he's slow Wink
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 4:32 PM BST
If you handicap Cracksman by the 3rd placed horse yesterday, you get a mark of 120.

Handicap him on his Epsom run and it drops to 111 at best through the runner-up.

Wink
Report brigust1 October 21, 2018 4:41 PM BST
You have to know your horses Figgis. Three wins and a 2nd this year, 4 wins a 2nd and a 3rd last year and a single win from 1 run as a two year old. I made a nice bit out of Cracksman thank you very much but that doesn't conceal the facts.
Report brigust1 October 21, 2018 4:43 PM BST
Plus when I backed him for both Arcs I had Enable running for me in both races as a profitable saver.
Report Figgis October 21, 2018 4:49 PM BST
Well this year Cracksman was 3/5 for the Ganay, wouldn't have been much ante post action on that. 2/7 for the Coronation Cup, doubt he was ever a great deal bigger on the market for that race. Beaten at odds of 2/5 in the POW. Then a non runner in the KG, International and Arc. Seemingly these are each way bets too with reference to placed efforts. Each to their own Wink
Report brigust1 October 21, 2018 5:23 PM BST
No they were not all great prices but I made a tidy profit from him boosted by his last win. I wish all were the same.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 21, 2018 6:44 PM BST
Brig you were dead right in your judgement and very unlucky in the Derby a truly superior oss. Hope you are keeping very well. I had a jolly good day yesterday backed the third each way as well.
Report metro john October 21, 2018 9:51 PM BST
Hi Brigust, hope you are in good health Sir!

your input is noted, and yes it is easy enough to crab the Champion Stakes, but the rating on the ground is ok, Like I say I feel the race was on the 130 range, take 5lb off all my ratings and it just looks possible.

Do I think Cracksman would have won the Arc on softish ground, well yes I do indeed, not everyone would agree , just my opinion.

AndrewInSweden, Crystal Ocean was giving Enable 8 lb at Kempton, Off levels against Cracksman and destroyed on that ground, nowmany other factors to consider also, most definitely, but Crystal Ocean was a Group3 winner on G/s and was in good form going into the Champion and 122 for Crystal does not look over inflated? Some will disagree.
Report dunlaying October 21, 2018 10:15 PM BST
One should not hold the race back for Subway Dancer since that horse was gelded in the summer and had the Champion in mind . A very good performance from Cracksman and I think DGH might up him 2 on last year's Champion rating .
Report twonky October 21, 2018 10:22 PM BST
Like I said, cracksman did as t says on the tin, but crystal maths ran exactly to his hardwicke form. People seem to think he is a Harbinger or Pilsudski horse..he is not. Just a bottom end group 1 horse.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 10:26 PM BST
Metro John,

My rating figures above for Cracksman are only 'tongue in cheek' Wink
Report metro john October 21, 2018 10:38 PM BST
No worries Andrew In Sweden, Mine likewiseLoveWink
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