Horse Antepost
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05 Oct 18
13:47
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
The two main protagonists are Cracksman and Roaring Lion both trained by Gosden. Gosden: "Cracksman and possibly Roaring Lion could go for the Champion Stakes, while the latter has the option of the QEII, where we could run Without Parole.
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It seems Gosden is more sure about where Cracksman is going next than Roaring Lion; $64k question is will he run both?
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It's two weeks to Ascot Champions Day and the going is soft after a deluge today. The forecast next week is for settled weather however, not so the following with significant rain forecast. If so, Roaring Lion could be diverted to The QEII Stakes and Cracksman could ultimately get the condition he thrives on.
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Could Cracksman have beaten Cloth Of Stars by more than a length?
 . We'll never know but the market would've expected him to. As for the Champion Stakes, even though I think 12f would've seen him in a better light he's still the one to beat for me. Roaring Lion, if running, will only receive 4lbs and so will need a career peak in my view. If it can be trusted that Cracksman is in good health then I do see it as 'his to lose', whatever the ground. Not a race to get involved in right now though unless you have an inside line to Clarehaven  |
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Previously lumped up Roaring Lion for Chamption Stakes. Everything crossed now!
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should be another good battle in this race hopefully if the two market leaders turn up, roaring lion what
a revelation that has been this season, although its clear as day the horse has had some tough races this season |
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Connections of Roaring Lion had indicated he'd run in The QEII should the ground come up soft (good to soft would be ok) as 10f would be stamina testing (against Cracksman). If missing this and QEII Roaring Lion could be America bound or retired (early).
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The ground will be key. If it's very soft, like last yr, then I wouldn't expect Lion to line up? On Gd ground, I'd expect him to have Cracksman's measure over 10f.
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Will Gosden run Roaring Lion against Cracksman on softish ground eg good to soft, let alone soft or worse? Personally, I'd not think so, why? The former has done more that enough to justify a no-show at Ascot on non-ideal ground definitely and/or against Cracksman; not even The QEII, maybe America given ownership, but not both, I believe.
Cracksman needs to win his finale Gp 1 race to bolster his breeding value, I firmly believe. |
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Got 4 doubles rolling up on Roaring Lion for Champion Stks too. Would be laying but not at 4.8 and that's only to £58. If it wasn't for the eventual going conditions and QEII entry, i'd be backing again
Bright and sunny here past two days so where there's life... |
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Just looked at the advanced forecast: Some light rain with occasional sunny spell
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The weather next week is a bit dodgy for Roaring Lion, and not easy to call. I backed him early (3/1) but laid off most, and backed Cracksman too at 3/1 and 5/2 in singles, doubles and trebles with Kew Gardens, (Enable or Sea Of Class) and Might Bite for The King George at Kempton. I believe the price of Cracksman will drop significantly if Roaring Lion is rerouted or the ground becomes soft.
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My worry with the Ascot ground, would be it didn't take a lot of rain a week past last Sat to change the ground to soft??? & why hold a meeting their so close to Champions Day??? That's a strange 1 Imo???
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I agree, October is usually easy ground at Ascot. I think Ascot cannot hold Champions Day earlier eg Sept as it would clash with the Irish equivalent and also not conducive for any fancy runners in The Arc.
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Inclement weather forecast for next week; soft ground specialist order of the day perhaps.
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Cheek-ps for Cracksman? Prob needs them after his last 2 runs?
Though I think rain is more important for him. & it will prob get rid of the main danger RL ? He looks sure to go QEII if it's soft. |
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The ground at Ascot is good to soft at the moment, and it is still lashing down since last night; rain is also expected on Monday with about 30mm between now and race day. But mid thursday onward is fine weather till race day, according to weather forecast.
Will Roaring Lion run here or at all? Could he be rerouted to America in November instead? |
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They do sponsor the meeting, so would expect they won't their best horse to run RL :-)
Am sure already said if it's very soft it's going to be the QEII, on g/s it's the Champion. |
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The going has changed to soft after 11mm Sunday morning to 10am with 4mm yesterday, and it is still raining. With more forecast tomorrow plus the occasional ones on tuesday and wednesday the going could only head south. But thursday onward it is forecast to be dry.
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Straight Course: Soft, Heavy in patches. Round Course: Heavy, Soft in places; 40mm fell on sunday alone to 8am today; occasional showers are forecast for today with dry weather forecast for tomorrow through to saturday.
Will Roaring Lion show up? If so, very, very unlikely this race (surely); QEII perhaps or Breeders Cup turf. |
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Even if the weather forecast is correct and the ground dries up a little the Round Course (Champion race) would only be on the easy side of soft from the present heavy. However, the Straight Course (QEII race) would be soft (possibly good to soft) thus making the QEII race a more likely option for him. Even then, if connections fear he might have a hard race at Ascot the Breeders Cup Turf would turn out to be a better proposition especially if Enable is absent, I think.
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Yes, the str course of Ascot tends to dry quicker than the round.
"If" it stays dry? with a nice drying wind? It could well be soft/g/s for the QEII come Sat? Which looks now the likely race for RL. He did handle g/s as a 2yo well enough. We shall see, hopefully no heavy in the going (str or round) come Sat :-) |
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The markets here are indicating he'll swerve this race and run in the QEII Stakes instead thus providing Cracksman with an excellent chance of winning his swansong race - here's hoping.
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3mm today, but dry till race day forecast.
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i think it makes sense to run rl over a mile and let his finale be at the breeders cup . i think he will prove to be a exceptional sire
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very similar to northern dancer and saddlers wells in physique and demeanour
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I think with the way the straight dries it could be Good to Soft in the straight on Saturday, I would worry that 1m is a bit on the short side, especially given a strong pace. I think Roaring Lion may be vulnerable to Receletos, a miler with form on soft
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Roaring Lion: 10f on heavy or soft (in the straight) not only will sap his stamina to breaking point it will also blunt his ability to quicken two negatives that will be too insurmountable against Cracksman who'll have his ideal ground for once; the QEII would be a better proposition, and the markets are alluding to that too.
If America bound his target race seems to be the Breeders Cup Turf, and his potent adversary is Enable which makes me believe if he wins on saturday that will be it for him - he'd be retired. He'd have won most, if not all, the races he could or should have; winning on saturday is the perfect finale for him. |
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Finally, it's out - Roaring Lion is running in the QEII Stakes NOT Champion. The market was correct once again; still a shame though, but a sensible decision by connections in the end.
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feels like a cynical attempt to put roaring lion in the qe2 as they know he's quite likely to outstay the opposition.
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i will say this, gosden is looking for a happy ending with cracksman . given rl would be in trouble no doubt over 1m2f with plenty of give at ascot a stiff course . it makes sense he runs in the qe11 . if you think hes gonna duck bc turf cos enable runs from the yard , no way . only if he loses his mojo .hes perfect horse for that race
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I see cracksman as being massively vulnerable here and you can almost smell an upset. cracksman hasn't been keen on his racing all year
quite like the chances of capri, given could turn into a gruelling test given the ground, and this horse already won over the leger trip. |
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Cracksman is the most likely and logical winner, though the 17 week break, wide draw and application of headgear are a worry.
Crystal Ocean is laughably rated better than Cracksman, despite not winning a group 1. I said after the KG that he was gone and would not win another race. His run against an unfit Enable reinforced my opinion. Capri is in here as an afterthought, very difficult to see a stayer winning this whatever the ground. Monarch Glen..12/1..couldn't have him at 120/1. A 17 week break and his best run was placed in a group 3..joke of a price. Subway Dancer..no chance Maverick Wave...as above and been off for a year. Verbal Dexterity..group 1 win and placed at 2 but shown nothing in 2 runs over 10f at 3. Looks a miler but would be folly to write off anything that Bolger sends over. Rhododendron, won 3 group 1s and placed in 4. Figures look uninspiring this season, but has been tenderly ridden last 2 runs and soft ground looks a plus..prob pacesetter for Capri, but as she stays further, it's possible that she won't be stopping. In conclusion, Cracksman according to my way of thinking, can run 8lbs below his best and still beat Crystal Ocean, is the logical winner, but at the prices I prefer Rhododendrum 33/1 ew. It's quite possible that she has fallen out of love with the game, but a multiple group 1 winning and placed horse cannot go unbacked at that price. |
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Cracksman is all the rage with his stablemate out despite not been out for a long while, but his trainer's ability is proven vis-a-vis Enable at Kempton; Rhododendron was a sick horse post her French Oaks (burst blood vessel) then a bug in the stable; Capri had had a hard race in The Arc and the Long Distance race over 2m deemed to taxing on heavy ground hence here instead.
Crystal Ocean has achieved more in this season than the others put together courtesy of the absence of Enable and Cracksman and early retirement of Minding, etc; Poets World was the only credible and comparable competitor, the rest non-entities. The present 5/6 is not a punting proposition for most no doubt the pro will see it differently on race day if the horse is focused. I think he is Gosden's best chance at Ascot despite the accessory. |
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Not sure what Rhododendron's burst blood vessel in the French Oaks has to do with the price of fish - given it was all of 16 months ago and she's won two Group 1s since then...
I accept her form since the Lockinge suggests she might have fallen out of love with the game. |
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Fuming. Led to believe ages ago it was the English Champion Stakes for Roaring Lion after the Irish equivalent. Huge bets therefore but to be scratched to run over a mile makes me very angry!
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Same here after The Juddmonte however, laid off most at 4.5 after The Irish equivalent given the hard race he'd had there, Gosden's lack of conviction compared to Cracksman and the likelihood of easier ground at Ascot this time of the year - hope you did the same. I think, all things considered, this is the correct position as America could be beckoning post The QEII Stakes.
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...but Roaring Lion is a 10 furlong horse - end of
No point laying at the big prices. Rather do my dosh in style! |
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PS When it didn't look good, backed Cracksman at 9/4 though
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Got some Cracksman at 5/2 but generous 'sportsbook' offered 40% above stake money in a cashout. Are they for real? Similarly Too Darn Hot (4/1) too. But they suspended cashout on The Arc two weeks prior to event; amazing business strategy only executed by the so called 'sportsbook' traders and not others.
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