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nocturnal
02 Oct 18 13:57
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Date Joined: 14 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 2,918 | Blogger: nocturnal's blog
"Cesarewitch"     

The Anglicised version of Tsesarevich,the title of the heir to the throne in Imperial Russia.

The race was named in honour ofTsesarevich Alexander (later Tsar Alexander 11),after he donated £300 to the jockey club.

I was thinking there might be a  Roman connection with the Cesar bit,perhaps highlighting that Ben Hur was a ridiculous price going out on the second circuit,despite receiving plenty of assistance from the saddle.

Alas no,with the russian mafia involved from 1839,and an initial 300 sovs chucked in somewhere,the 4 winners since 2008 at 50/1 or above,highlight that all may not be as it seems.

Trends........plucked from another site

15/16  Age 4 or above
13/16  won min 1m 6f
13/16  9-01lb or below
11/16  3 runs or more current season
11/16  1st 4 lto
9/16    4 wins or more flat
7/16    won by NH trainer
9/16    drawn 12 or lower
12/16  double figure price
8/16     ran at ascot/chester/donny lto

Just the 60 odd to wade through this far out,keep coming back to 1 horse.

HERE AND NOW

4 Yr old rated 100,from th beckett yard.

12 lifetimes starts,3 wins,2 seconds,3 thirds.

A horse that does not scream out on current ratings,and looking at the recent trends,a little above the Ideal weight range.

However,there are bits and bobs of form that suggest he is a classy individual,on his day.

Started out over middle distances as a 3 yr old,he took the scalp of Stradivarius at chester,yes he received almost a stone that day,but the manner of the victory,doing his best work at the end,suggested stamina was his forte.

This season he has developed into a very decent stayer,the performance at york marked him out as a stayer on the up.One run since against the 114 rated Duretto,again he did not look out of place,looking like a more galloping track might see his stamina come to the fore.

The other factor might be the tongue tie.......all 3 runs since being applied have seen him run to the line,if this has helped his breathing there are reasons to believe he could have plenty more to come.

So thats the reasoning,improving 4 yr old who may not have reached his peak,decent ground holds no fears,the distance may well be in his favour,arguably in the form of his life.

Around 25/1 with a few books,one for the future whatever happens at HQ.

Dangers a plenty........thoughts encouraged.......goes without saying,Kudos to anyone who can unravel this beast of a handicap.

GL ALL
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Report Mystic Wind October 2, 2018 7:30 PM BST
Just In Time was a good winner of the Mallard, but I'm not sure that he wants to go much further than 14f. I'm quite intrigued by the horse that punctuated Just In Time's winning streak - Vis A Vis. He certainly looks to have plenty of stamina and might improve for the marathon trip, especially as this will only be his 3rd run in this country / for his trainer. He hasn't run since early August, which is a concern - I'm taking a chance on that being part of the 'plot'.

0.25pt Vis A Vis @ 20/1
Report deepingfox October 3, 2018 1:22 PM BST
Mystic, you are spot on with VIS A VIS, confirmation from trainer today that he stands his ground in the latest decs, that he makes the field now, as he is within the top 35 entries, and that SDS rides, and he has won the last two Cesarewitch's, and he would have had a lot of options in the race.

I put this horse up as my main selection, for the Radeon 27th August, in the Autumn Double topic, within a few hours of the decs being made, having looked at all the entries in the race, and a lot of video study.

Also put up JUST IN TIME at the same time, but with his Mallard Handicap win, having put him right up the weights, and a few pounds wrong for his defeat by VIS A ViS.

Took the 25/1 for both on the 27th August, and also some of the 20/1 on VIS A VIS this morning after the trainer/jockey info, would think the price will drop to 16s or 14s quickly.

Great race, tough nut to crack, but happy with my two selections.
Report the bloob October 8, 2018 3:01 PM BST
I'm with you on Vis a Vis, and have had a few quid myself

one that interests me at a big price is Cliffs of Dover, will get in with a light weight and is pretty unexposed on the flat. A decent, staying-on run last time over 1m 6f, and dropped a pound for that effort, also drying ground won't be a problem as well as the step up in trip. Rated 140 over hurdles and only 87 on the flat, anything over 50lb below it's hurdle mark would be attractive to me (I know the hurdles mark hasn't really been backed up and is based on form as a 3yo)
Report ReaseHeath October 8, 2018 4:47 PM BST
not looked at this race properly yet but just noticed Cliffs of Dover is also entered in the Grade 3 Silver Trophy handicap hurdle at Chepstow on Saturday, can't see anything which indicates which race he is more likely to run in...
Report the bloob October 8, 2018 6:11 PM BST
thanks, I hadn't spotted that, Megan Nicholls is shown as booked to ride in Ces on RP site which is a positive. It would seem the obvious choice given the prizemoney and the fact that there will be plenty of chances to come over jumps
Report ReaseHeath October 8, 2018 6:15 PM BST
yes I noticed that after I'd posted, the bloob - agree the ces looks favoured option on that basis...
Report willie the milk October 9, 2018 2:47 PM BST
I like Stargazer. Got injured in the Chester Cup and was off till a pipe opener start of Sept. 33s is fair but not jocked up yet. Hope he runs
Report morpteh mackem October 9, 2018 7:45 PM BST
vis a vis doesn't half fill a lot of positive stats. jockey good recent record in race too.
Report paulo47 October 10, 2018 8:10 PM BST
Have the 50s Precious Ramotswe , purely on the basis that he looked an Ebor horse and Gosden had the first two in that , went to France and ran okish , assume stable think he stays .
Report penzance October 11, 2018 11:19 AM BST
Speedo Boy on here,E/W on the book(5 plcs)

   GL ALL
Report conditor October 11, 2018 5:27 PM BST
Meri Devie Wink
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