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Charlton2005
29 Sep 18 20:13
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not normally a price i would lay at but if this wins i'll give up the game
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Report Lion King September 29, 2018 9:27 PM BST
Wow you could go bankrupt very quickly. She gets a lot of weight and has a good turn of foot. Won't be 5/1 on the day imho if no Cracksman.
Report Charlton2005 September 29, 2018 9:35 PM BST
got about the same weight from coronet as she gets here

coronet would be 50s in this race

5/1 is ridiculous. no idea how the tote will see her but i wouldnt be surprised to see 10/1 + on the day whomever is running
Report Lion King September 30, 2018 9:04 AM BST
That would be very tasty given the potential lack of depth and the question marks around Enable. Fast ground a big plus for Sea of Class.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 30, 2018 10:22 AM BST
Charlton,

I agree (at least in part).

Her from lines are good, but not fantastic. One thing in her favour is the probable going and a turn of foot. Frankie mentioned she was a live danger, but he's only won the Arc 5 times, what does he know. Wink

I posted this on the 2018 Arc Thread

Over-rated to an extent in my opinion (at least until she shows more).

Won two Oaks but beat Coronet 2.25L receiving 9 lb at York, whereas Enable beat her 5L at levels in the same race 2017.

Of the two GB hyped 3 year old fillies, i much prefer Lah Ti Dar.

Could finish in the minor placings as the WFA/filly allowance is a big advantage.
Report impossible123 September 30, 2018 3:08 PM BST
Enable vs Sea of Class; Reigning Champion vs Young Pretender; 11/10 vs 5/1; Dettori vs Doyle. Who will be victorious?

Let's hope the forecast is correct, and the groundsmen do not open their hoses unexpectedly.
Report FELTFAIR September 30, 2018 3:57 PM BST
There`s no need for that mucky talk Bungle.
Report harry callaghan September 30, 2018 4:22 PM BST
this could be an interesting thread for the long term
Report impossible123 October 2, 2018 1:07 PM BST
Can she dethrone Enable, the reigning champion? With conditions (looking) in her favour plus the wfa allowance and preparation she'll have a chance 2nd to none, I believe, if granted a bit of luck in running.
Report lewisham ranger October 3, 2018 8:27 AM BST
Won two Oaks but beat Coronet 2.25L receiving 9 lb at York, whereas Enable beat her 5L at levels in the same race 2017.

Of the two GB hyped 3 year old fillies, i much prefer Lah Ti Dar.



must admit, I reckon if you took lah ti dar and the way she performed at york, and put her in the yorkshire oaks won by sea of class, I reckon she would have won.
Report Can't Catch Me October 3, 2018 2:03 PM BST
LTD isnt running in the Arc though so how is that relevant to this race?
Report lewisham ranger October 3, 2018 6:53 PM BST
true, she isn't. but the angle is maybe her yorkshire oaks win while excellent, might not mark her out as arc winning material.
Report gpz6316 October 3, 2018 8:44 PM BST
i would have thought her chance has gone now given stall 20 of 20 , shes good , but , no golden horn
Report gpz6316 October 3, 2018 8:49 PM BST
a little perplexed i mistook the no. 20 as her draw . it looks like its just that she carries the least weight , sorry to confuse
Report gpz6316 October 3, 2018 8:50 PM BST
when is the draw made ? this will have quite a bearing in a 20 runner race ?
Report gpz6316 October 3, 2018 8:56 PM BST
i see aidens rags going great guns looking to set it up for their only hope kew gardens as he must have a fast run race or he,ll be outsprinted
Report impossible123 October 3, 2018 8:59 PM BST
'gpz6316', you got me worried for a moment. I do not want the fancy horses getting coffin boxes in such a prestigious race. I think the all important draw could be 3 days before the race.

Yes, Nelson could be doing the donkey work again just as he did in The Voltigeur and Leger.
Report jedi sophie October 3, 2018 9:21 PM BST
Fast pace suit Frankie perfectly well thanks...
Report gpz6316 October 3, 2018 10:15 PM BST
i,ve spent quite a while soaking this race up . i think i,m a good judge , given the way its gonna be run . i think the draw isnt as important as i was saying .the best horse over a strongly run race will win unless its trapped 4 wide or very unlucky . i see the race between cloth of stars , kew gardens and WALDGEIST   whom i think has never been better . his time was a little disappointing in the foy . the race is set up for him though ,he just beat the breeders cup turf winner and last years arc second pretty easily .you couldnt say enable is never better they have to go with it hoping to make history . i dont think she will be as good as last year and that makes her vulnerable . i doubt the form with sea of class . there it is gpzs synopsis i,ll be getting on tomorrow now my minds made up . best of luck
Report Charlton2005 October 3, 2018 10:42 PM BST
lewisham ranger
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03 Oct 18 18:53 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 3,988 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
true, she isn't. but the angle is maybe her yorkshire oaks win while excellent, might not mark her out as arc winning material.


100% agree with that
Report impossible123 October 3, 2018 11:28 PM BST
Kew Gardens managed a quicker time and carried 1lb more than Waldgeist when winning the French Derby over course and distance in the trials; Waldgeist would also need to improve several lbs to win. On a line with Coronet who both Sea Of Class (SoC) and Waldgeist beat SoC would have the upper hand (weight wise), but the latter has track experience in his favour maybe not the ground, assuming it is good ground on the day.

I think if Enable runs to form even Sea Of Class will need to run to her best to beat her, and that goes for Cracksman too. It is "nrnb" after 10am tomorrow on The Exchange, and probably the draw be made some time in the afternoon, I think.
Report impossible123 October 4, 2018 11:16 AM BST
Sea Of Class is drawn 15, far from ideal; Enable in (6) with Waldgeist (13) and Kew Gardens (14). Plum draw for Enable, but difficult ones for her main protagonists, I believe.
Report Charlton2005 October 4, 2018 9:15 PM BST
should be 14s imo
Report jedi sophie October 4, 2018 9:20 PM BST
Sea of class should be much bigger in my view,very tough task from there..
Enable could get run of it again, AOB pace right there for her.
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2018 10:08 PM BST
Charlton2005
04 Oct 18 21:15
Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 6,314 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
should be 14s imo




if she s 14's how are you pricing up the rest?
Report Lion King October 5, 2018 1:47 PM BST
Can see a big drift coming now on Sea of Class after getting such a wide draw with Enable getting a plum in 6.
Report impossible123 October 5, 2018 2:01 PM BST
Why a big drift on Sea Of Class if going remains present (good) and not deteriorate? The draw is a negative similarly Waldgeist and Kew Gardens. Waldgeist seems to have improved this season, but beat little of note in a time slightly slower than Kew Gardens in The Prix Foy; did not accomplish much as a 3 yr old on good ground in The Irish Derby either.

If Sea Of Class holds a good position half-way into the race she could be significantly shorter than present, and if Enable is not too smartly away; she's the most dangerous to Enable repeating her triumph of last year; she's able to quicken off a fast pace too - her piece de resistance.
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 3:09 PM BST
Sea Of Class has never quickened off a fast pace.
Report harry callaghan October 5, 2018 3:20 PM BST
i can't read his posts figgis but agree she has never been in a fast run race
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 3:38 PM BST
Harry, she could be capable of doing so but hasn't proved it yet. The way Doyle rode her at the Curragh made it look very impressive, but for me the narrow margin of victory was a true reflection, and the O'Brien filly was a substandard Oaks winner anyway. The conditions of the Yorkshire Oaks greatly favours the younger fillies in my view, plus the older fillies were nothing special. They went slow early and Sea Of Class beat them in style. It looked good on the eye but in terms of form I reckon she did no more than she did at the Curragh. She hasn't been completely bottomed and could improve again but I think even a weak looking Arc requires a big step up on what she's done so far.
Report harry callaghan October 5, 2018 4:13 PM BST
fair enough figgis i have my reservations about her form myself but do like her as an individual. Just on a couple of comments you make. in regards the curragh i liked what she did as they went no gallop and to pick up a strong stayer who had it all her own way in that race after getting a perfect trip, i personally marked sea of class up, agree she was no great english oaks winner but she is a strong stayer who had first run on her at the curragh after siting handy. i just thought she had no right to catch her, however she did so i gave her credit

in the yorkshire oaks they also went no great gallop but she picked up well again and as much as coronet is no great shakes she is a very solid filly who likes york and some other good fillies were in behind, so the way the winner won was very comfortable and likeable. i don't have her running any great ratings at all, you know i don't buy hype but i can't help but like her. i have found her difficult to say she has stopped improving and all her recent efforts have been done without the rider using the stick, she may well bomb out here and we will say we knew she was just an ok filly but with the weight concession here and with so many average horses running, this seems another very weak addition of the race, so i give her a decent chance to get involved on ground she likes.

i don't know about yourself but i haven't been able to put a ceiling on her and she has a touch of class, one thing is for sure we are seriously lacking it in this race and she has her ideal conditions again here(minus the draw), whereas horses like enable will not have there ideal, ground wise. anyway i'm not a knocker of her but will when i have all the facts, which we will have after sunday but how anyone would want to knock her with the horses running in this race defies belief, in fact apart from the tough leger winner what other improvers are we dealing with?

anyway i can see why people would want to oppose her at 4/1 but what price should she be against these horses, if she bombs fair enough people will lord it as being right and those people are 2/9 on to be right
Report roadrunner46 October 5, 2018 4:30 PM BST
the way seas of class finished that race at the curragh, was amazing the way it dipped its head on the line,
manner of that win was something you dont see very often in top class races like that, with the WFA allowance
entitled to run a very big race, just hope it can battle enable all the way to the line.the horse has a good
chance its still improving. will findout on sunday
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 4:32 PM BST
Harry, yes there are surely worse runners in the race and she must have a better chance than some others. I just think she takes up too big a chunk of the market and that's why she's being picked on, by me at least. No question that without Cracksman in the race Enable is the most likely winner, but even money? With her still unproven this year I make her real chance more like 2/1. As I said SOC doesn't have the worst prospects but I'd have her chance at around 8/1. We often hear about 'value' horses with no mention of which horses are underpriced, but others have to be too short in order to create value on anything else. For me it's mainly Enable and SOC that are creating value elsewhere.
Report harry callaghan October 5, 2018 4:58 PM BST
figgis i want nothing to do with enable and posted on the other thread as such but what is running for us here as a layer and believe me when i say i want to lay her i do, however there is no horses with any ability in this race, it's very difficult with the runners running

so if enable is 2/1 and sea of class is 8/1 what prices are wrong here? because on 100% book i am struggling, i never mind when people say a horse should be this price or that price as do it myself, i have no problem as people are taking the market to task but give me your tissue so i can understand your reasoning? because at those prices you must rate some of the long shots far better than the current prices available
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 5:09 PM BST
Harry, I don't price up every single horse, as I'm only interested in those with what I think have a reasonable chance of winning. The way I work I just lump 'the rest' as a price/chance. Obviously that wouldn't work for a proper layer of the whole field but that's not my game. Obviously I'm going to miss runners priced at 20/1 that have a 10/1 chance but I'm not interested in real 10/1 chances as a backer, as I don't bet a large number of runners in a race and I don't like long losing runs. I'd have Kew Gardens second favourite ahead of SOC and Waldgeist. I'd be more confident of Waldgeist running his race but I'm not confident that's going to be quite good enough. I'm less confident of Kew Gardens running his race but if he does I can see him running a big race.
Report impossible123 October 5, 2018 5:33 PM BST
A massive admirer of Enable nevertheless, if there was a duel in the last furlong between Enable and Sea Of Class to the line I'd tend to side with the latter given her proven ability to quicken. I hope so given they are the two highest rated horses in the race.
Report harry callaghan October 5, 2018 5:37 PM BST
thats fair comments figgis

i have wrangled with waldgiest for a while now but just have a feeling he will come up short also but the trainer might have held him back all season with this is mind, when you want to take the favourite on and you think he will come up short where do we go.

i'm with you and don't mind kew gardens the trouble i do have with kew gardens as he seems a relentless galloper to me and was under a full drive with 4 furlongs to run in the leger and grinded his way to the front before winning comfortable. do you feel he will travel well enough figgis because i think he is going to need a break down pace in order for this to become a slog and on this ground will he be quick enough. i personally thought the leger was a weak race on paper but he is a nice horse and is at least going the right way. i suppose it just shows how weak the field is to be considering him
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 5:49 PM BST
Harry, I think he'll travel ok. I backed Lah Ti Dar in the Leger and was fairly confident beforehand. On watching the race I thought maybe she was a bit below her York comeback form but on analysing the times, etc, I have her pretty much running her race and KG improving again. In a normal year I'd be looking for something a bit better than this form, but if Enable isn't as hot as the market reckons then I think it could be good enough in a below par year. The big question is can he go again so soon after the Leger? But I think the price allows for that.
Report harry callaghan October 5, 2018 6:23 PM BST
i always find o'brien hard to gauge in regards regression especially with a tough horse like this, as once he gets them rolling and conditioned, they keep coming back for more, i'd say this horse would be different to say leading light as an example as i think he bounced from doncaster to longchamp but he hadn't prepped or been conditioned like this horse has and this horse came forward after a tender ride at york so was nicely conditioned for doncaster so i don't see why he won't be ok figgis if fast enough
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 5:01 PM BST
no cracksman and still 6/1

mug price still
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 6:21 PM BST
now 7s and tomorrow maybe 10s as predicted

4/1 ffs, what a joke
Report Can't Catch Me October 6, 2018 8:24 PM BST
I must admit to being confused with this one. I must be the only person who thinks the horse will actually be better off on soft ground. The dam hasn’t had many top class horses but the other couple rated above 100 have excellent form on soft.

STS wasn’t ground dependant and some of his best progeny have absolutely excelled on soft ground. Harzand being a prime example.

The extra emphasis on stamina will surely help too? Of course she may well not be good enough, but I just can’t understand why she was backed in as low as 3/1, but now some rain is forecast, she’s out to 13/2? Unless of course it’s something else and she just hasn’t travelled over particularly well?
Report impossible123 October 6, 2018 8:46 PM BST
Now, she's available at 7/1 probably due to her adverse draw, persistent support for Waldgeist and possibly the forecast of 8mm of rain tonight into tomorrow; 7/1 a price worth chancing given her proven ability and potential?
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 9:17 PM BST
Can't Catch Me
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06 Oct 18 20:24 Joined: 02 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 27,310 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
I must admit to being confused with this one. I must be the only person who thinks the horse will actually be better off on soft ground. The dam hasn’t had many top class horses but the other couple rated above 100 have excellent form on soft.

STS wasn’t ground dependant and some of his best progeny have absolutely excelled on soft ground. Harzand being a prime example.

The extra emphasis on stamina will surely help too? Of course she may well not be good enough, but I just can’t understand why she was backed in as low as 3/1, but now some rain is forecast, she’s out to 13/2? Unless of course it’s something else and she just hasn’t travelled over particularly well?


should never have been 4/1. nothing to do with travelling.
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 9:25 PM BST
Lion King 29 Sep 18 21:27 Joined: 21 May 05 | Topic/replies: 163 | Blogger: Lion King's blog
Wow you could go bankrupt very quickly. She gets a lot of weight and has a good turn of foot. Won't be 5/1 on the day imho if no Cracksman.


no she won't
Report Can't Catch Me October 6, 2018 9:28 PM BST
That’s not really the point though Charlton.
Report Can't Catch Me October 6, 2018 9:29 PM BST
Paddy obviously know something. Can’t get her price out fast enough.
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 9:32 PM BST
ccm, isnt the point the "drift"?

the price was just wrong. thats why i made the thread, to point that out. why a few mugs are happy to take way under the odds, well this won't be the first time that's happened surely. Grin
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 9:33 PM BST
if cracksman was in the race, she would have ended 20/1 on the french pari
Report Can't Catch Me October 6, 2018 9:55 PM BST
Personally, I don’t think the drift is merely a ‘correction’.
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 10:29 PM BST
well i can tell you i don't have any knowledge of whats going on yet i predicted exactly this move, so for me it is a correction
Report ReaseHeath October 6, 2018 10:54 PM BST

Oct 6, 2018 -- 2:24PM, Can't Catch Me wrote:


I must admit to being confused with this one. I must be the only person who thinks the horse will actually be better off on soft ground. The dam hasn’t had many top class horses but the other couple rated above 100 have excellent form on soft. STS wasn’t ground dependant and some of his best progeny have absolutely excelled on soft ground. Harzand being a prime example. The extra emphasis on stamina will surely help too? Of course she may well not be good enough, but I just can’t understand why she was backed in as low as 3/1, but now some rain is forecast, she’s out to 13/2? Unless of course it’s something else and she just hasn’t travelled over particularly well?


You're not the only one- would add that the damsire Hernando's stats are at least as good with soft and heavy in the description as they are on good and good to firm - his progeny include the likes of Cape Tribulation and Taws so on that basis Sea of Class should n't be found wanting on softer ground or for the stronger test of stamina which ensues due to a more testing surface.

The idea that she does n't want soft ground is a function of her trainer's comments and the fact that he withdrew her before The Oaks due to soft ground (though I think there may have been an element of expediency involved in that because of his reservations about her lack of experience).

However, it's a bit like when you disagree with the manager about the selection of players for the football team you support - he is usually privy to information you don't have because he's sees them in training every day. Haggas ran Reverend Jacobs in the Mallard recently and expressed reservations about whether he would stay beforehand - my pedigree analysis led me to believe that he probably would stay and I backed him - he finished 9th and shaped like a non stayer Sad

Would n't knock you for having the courage of your convictions and ignoring the rhetoric about the ground though - won't be backing her myself as I think there is better value elsewhere at the prices.

Report lewisham ranger October 7, 2018 3:11 PM BST
better draw and it would have won! Shocked
Report roadrunner46 October 7, 2018 3:14 PM BST

Oct 5, 2018 -- 10:30AM, roadrunner46 wrote:


the way seas of class finished that race at the curragh, was amazing the way it dipped its head on the line,manner of that win was something you dont see very often in top class races like that, with the WFA allowanceentitled to run a very big race, just hope it can battle enable all the way to the line.the horse has a goodchance its still improving. will findout on sunday


like i said that win at the curragh was something very special, that you dont see very often in top class races

Report Jack Bauer '24' October 7, 2018 3:23 PM BST
Lovely filly with a high cruising speed and turn of foot, unfortunately for connections she was beaten by the draw.
Report Lion King October 7, 2018 3:27 PM BST
All about the draw.
Report Can't Catch Me October 7, 2018 8:26 PM BST
Hope you will be reassessing your opinion of her now Charlton. Mighty run.
Report Charlton2005 October 7, 2018 9:39 PM BST
indeed. i was totally wrong and lucky to still be in the game.
Report lewisham ranger October 8, 2018 10:10 AM BST
takes a big man to step up and admit he was wrong. wd.
Report Can't Catch Me October 8, 2018 10:49 AM BST
Yes fair play Charlton. Thought she was definitely going to get there with a couple of hundred yards to go Sad Miraculous performance where you see where she was off the final bend.
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