sea of class 5/1 arc

got about the same weight from coronet as she gets here

coronet would be 50s in this race

5/1 is ridiculous. no idea how the tote will see her but i wouldnt be surprised to see 10/1 + on the day whomever is running

Charlton,

I agree (at least in part).

Her from lines are good, but not fantastic. One thing in her favour is the probable going and a turn of foot. Frankie mentioned she was a live danger, but he's only won the Arc 5 times, what does he know.

I posted this on the 2018 Arc Thread

Over-rated to an extent in my opinion (at least until she shows more).

Won two Oaks but beat Coronet 2.25L receiving 9 lb at York, whereas Enable beat her 5L at levels in the same race 2017.

Of the two GB hyped 3 year old fillies, i much prefer Lah Ti Dar.

Could finish in the minor placings as the WFA/filly allowance is a big advantage.

There`s no need for that mucky talk Bungle.

Can she dethrone Enable, the reigning champion? With conditions (looking) in her favour plus the wfa allowance and preparation she'll have a chance 2nd to none, I believe, if granted a bit of luck in running.

LTD isnt running in the Arc though so how is that relevant to this race?

i would have thought her chance has gone now given stall 20 of 20 , shes good , but , no golden horn

when is the draw made ? this will have quite a bearing in a 20 runner race ?

'gpz6316', you got me worried for a moment. I do not want the fancy horses getting coffin boxes in such a prestigious race. I think the all important draw could be 3 days before the race.

Yes, Nelson could be doing the donkey work again just as he did in The Voltigeur and Leger.

i,ve spent quite a while soaking this race up . i think i,m a good judge , given the way its gonna be run . i think the draw isnt as important as i was saying .the best horse over a strongly run race will win unless its trapped 4 wide or very unlucky . i see the race between cloth of stars , kew gardens and WALDGEIST   whom i think has never been better . his time was a little disappointing in the foy . the race is set up for him though ,he just beat the breeders cup turf winner and last years arc second pretty easily .you couldnt say enable is never better they have to go with it hoping to make history . i dont think she will be as good as last year and that makes her vulnerable . i doubt the form with sea of class . there it is gpzs synopsis i,ll be getting on tomorrow now my minds made up . best of luck

Kew Gardens managed a quicker time and carried 1lb more than Waldgeist when winning the French Derby over course and distance in the trials; Waldgeist would also need to improve several lbs to win. On a line with Coronet who both Sea Of Class (SoC) and Waldgeist beat SoC would have the upper hand (weight wise), but the latter has track experience in his favour maybe not the ground, assuming it is good ground on the day.

I think if Enable runs to form even Sea Of Class will need to run to her best to beat her, and that goes for Cracksman too. It is "nrnb" after 10am tomorrow on The Exchange, and probably the draw be made some time in the afternoon, I think.

should be 14s imo

Charlton2005
04 Oct 18 21:15
Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 6,314 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
should be 14s imo




if she s 14's how are you pricing up the rest?

Why a big drift on Sea Of Class if going remains present (good) and not deteriorate? The draw is a negative similarly Waldgeist and Kew Gardens. Waldgeist seems to have improved this season, but beat little of note in a time slightly slower than Kew Gardens in The Prix Foy; did not accomplish much as a 3 yr old on good ground in The Irish Derby either.

If Sea Of Class holds a good position half-way into the race she could be significantly shorter than present, and if Enable is not too smartly away; she's the most dangerous to Enable repeating her triumph of last year; she's able to quicken off a fast pace too - her piece de resistance.

i can't read his posts figgis but agree she has never been in a fast run race

fair enough figgis i have my reservations about her form myself but do like her as an individual. Just on a couple of comments you make. in regards the curragh i liked what she did as they went no gallop and to pick up a strong stayer who had it all her own way in that race after getting a perfect trip, i personally marked sea of class up, agree she was no great english oaks winner but she is a strong stayer who had first run on her at the curragh after siting handy. i just thought she had no right to catch her, however she did so i gave her credit

in the yorkshire oaks they also went no great gallop but she picked up well again and as much as coronet is no great shakes she is a very solid filly who likes york and some other good fillies were in behind, so the way the winner won was very comfortable and likeable. i don't have her running any great ratings at all, you know i don't buy hype but i can't help but like her. i have found her difficult to say she has stopped improving and all her recent efforts have been done without the rider using the stick, she may well bomb out here and we will say we knew she was just an ok filly but with the weight concession here and with so many average horses running, this seems another very weak addition of the race, so i give her a decent chance to get involved on ground she likes.

i don't know about yourself but i haven't been able to put a ceiling on her and she has a touch of class, one thing is for sure we are seriously lacking it in this race and she has her ideal conditions again here(minus the draw), whereas horses like enable will not have there ideal, ground wise. anyway i'm not a knocker of her but will when i have all the facts, which we will have after sunday but how anyone would want to knock her with the horses running in this race defies belief, in fact apart from the tough leger winner what other improvers are we dealing with?

anyway i can see why people would want to oppose her at 4/1 but what price should she be against these horses, if she bombs fair enough people will lord it as being right and those people are 2/9 on to be right

Harry, yes there are surely worse runners in the race and she must have a better chance than some others. I just think she takes up too big a chunk of the market and that's why she's being picked on, by me at least. No question that without Cracksman in the race Enable is the most likely winner, but even money? With her still unproven this year I make her real chance more like 2/1. As I said SOC doesn't have the worst prospects but I'd have her chance at around 8/1. We often hear about 'value' horses with no mention of which horses are underpriced, but others have to be too short in order to create value on anything else. For me it's mainly Enable and SOC that are creating value elsewhere.

Harry, I don't price up every single horse, as I'm only interested in those with what I think have a reasonable chance of winning. The way I work I just lump 'the rest' as a price/chance. Obviously that wouldn't work for a proper layer of the whole field but that's not my game. Obviously I'm going to miss runners priced at 20/1 that have a 10/1 chance but I'm not interested in real 10/1 chances as a backer, as I don't bet a large number of runners in a race and I don't like long losing runs. I'd have Kew Gardens second favourite ahead of SOC and Waldgeist. I'd be more confident of Waldgeist running his race but I'm not confident that's going to be quite good enough. I'm less confident of Kew Gardens running his race but if he does I can see him running a big race.

thats fair comments figgis

i have wrangled with waldgiest for a while now but just have a feeling he will come up short also but the trainer might have held him back all season with this is mind, when you want to take the favourite on and you think he will come up short where do we go.

i'm with you and don't mind kew gardens the trouble i do have with kew gardens as he seems a relentless galloper to me and was under a full drive with 4 furlongs to run in the leger and grinded his way to the front before winning comfortable. do you feel he will travel well enough figgis because i think he is going to need a break down pace in order for this to become a slog and on this ground will he be quick enough. i personally thought the leger was a weak race on paper but he is a nice horse and is at least going the right way. i suppose it just shows how weak the field is to be considering him

i always find o'brien hard to gauge in regards regression especially with a tough horse like this, as once he gets them rolling and conditioned, they keep coming back for more, i'd say this horse would be different to say leading light as an example as i think he bounced from doncaster to longchamp but he hadn't prepped or been conditioned like this horse has and this horse came forward after a tender ride at york so was nicely conditioned for doncaster so i don't see why he won't be ok figgis if fast enough