Irish Champions Day (Leopardstown/sat 15th Sept)

Are these two races on 'betfair' video? Not a sub to atr or ruk either.

If you bet £2 or more on them you can watch them

That`s a bit much for Bungle.

Pmsl

After Alpha Centauri's latest impressive win I was looking forward to her running again, but with the view to opposing her as I think there's an odds on chance she'll be below her peak next time out. That anticipation vanished though when I saw the (lack of) quality of this Matron field. In America they talk of predicting a horse will 'bounce to the moon', meaning it will run massively below form. It happens but I don't think it's possible to predict that with real confidence.

I regard a below par run as anything more than about 5 or 6 pounds worse but the trouble for me today is I have AC 12lbs in hand of the second favourite, Magical. She could run around 10lbs below her best and still win nicely. A back to form Clemmie wouldn't have as much to find but so far her 3yo form has gone backwards from what she showed as a 2yo. Will just have to watch and hope AC doesn't 'bounce to the moon'

Good call Figgis but this is one of the toughest things to predict with any real confidence. I thought Magical might be the one to benefit from any weakness in the fav. Can you see any reason to lay Roaring Lion? Long season. Study of Man fresh horse but doesn't seem quite good enough. I couldn't have Saxon Warrior has hung under pressure virtually every time.

Baastaaard! . The plan was to lay her rather than find one to back so that result would've been just fine.

Howellsy, I couldn't back Roaring Lion at any kind of odds on here. I read somewhere that RL has surpassed SW but the way I read it it's SW who has gone backwards. Strange as it may sound I don't have RL's York win any higher than his Guineas fifth from a time perspective. I thought it turned into a very weak race and RL didn't need to do any more than he did in the Eclipse. The older horses look up against it unless both the front two underperform.

The question is whether SW can return to something closer to his Guineas form. I thought he'd probably go backwards after that but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd stay poor the rest of the season. The Ballydoyle horses are, on the whole, running well and I'd have to say he's the only one I'd be interested in at these prices. Would only be a small bet though as you'd be backing him aware that he could just as well be hammered as win.

Coolmore getting congratulated for their tactics but I thought it was an odd plan. While it's usually good to get first run in a moderately run race their main rival had absolutely slaughtered his rivals twice at York off a slowish pace. That said, the best horse won and probably would've won anyway.

Cracking race to watch though - impressive turn of foot after a very long and unconventional campaign.

Yes was a good watch. Apart from the fact RL was my Derby bet and I haven't touched him since

Thread is probably dead now so shouldn't matter to sidetrack it. Just wondering Howellsy, what is your take on Too Darn Hot?

Good point about his campaign - he ran in the Guineas and Derby, had a prep for both and has won three Group 1s on the spin since - and it's only the middle of September.

SW has danced every dance as well in fairness...

I thought TDH put up a very encouraging performance at Sandown in the group 3. Hard to get a reliable figure but it's possible to make it pretty quick if you believe Dubai Horizon might be improving. Today's race was a strange one to watch but the bare time looks pretty decent although I haven't done the figures yet. I was surprised they ran him just 2 weeks after Sandown, but he looks a worthy Guineas favourite at this stage. I look forward to the National Stakes tomorrow where I can see Quorto being too quick for A van Dyck unless the ground gets very soft. Then I would hope to see the winner take on TDH in the Dewhurst for the bragging rights. What's your view?

I don't have him as anything better than a Gp2 performer as a miler.

But who are the group 1 colts from this season then?

In the possible miler department I've only seen one who I'd say is already Gp1 winning class and that's Calyx.