Too Darn Hot - Derby 2019

there's already a thread for this

So there is...

This is the get on at 20/1 thread

staying on well at the end there, looks a Derby horse for sure, RP Trophy next?

That was mighty impressive and now 7/1 for the Derby. Think we have a live one at 20/1

Dewhurst or Racing Post next anyone know ?

Champagne Stakes at Doncaster on saturday week.

Today on RUK Verdict said the Guineas and Derby double was 50/1 (6/1 in both races WITH 356 ??). It's 20/1 now but doubt it was ever 50/1 after Saturday. Anyone get 50/1 ??

Can he win this race? If so, another contraction in prices for The 2000G and The Derby no doubt. I hope hope he puts in a credible performance.

Wow, that was visually impressive. I understand the 2nd fav did not perform nevertheless, he was still impressive; cemented favouritism in both The 2000G and The Derby at about 4/1.

Zero chance of even running in the Derby - looks a cert for the Guineas though.

Pundits reckoned TDH is too quick for The Derby, and unlikley to last the trip - another Roaring Lion perhaps. If so, Anthony Van Dyck could prove to be the more viable alternative instead.

If TDH wins The 2000G he'll most probably run in one of the Derby trials prior similar to Roaring Lion unlike Saxon Warrior who was found wanting in The Derby without a trial prior; a near certainty if winning The 2000G cosily with The Derby to follow, I believe.

When was the last time a Guineas winner then ran in a Derby trial?

mister bailey's perhaps?

That's the only one I can remember in recent times and that will be 25 years ago next year, and he was trained by Mark Johnston who is not averse to running his horses after very short breaks. I think it is very unlikely Gosden will run him in a Derby trial if he wins the Guineas.

although your point is valid- there would be no reason for him to turn in one- in fact it would be strange to do so, given his breeding. they would know he would get 10 furlongs anyway on breeding and while there would be doubt about him stretching out to a mile and a half, the whole exercise of running him in something like the dante might be somewhat pointless. roaring lion is different as he was always a more dubious case on breeding

My apology. I was trying to multi-task ie typing and speaking on the phone at the same time. I cannot remember either, to be perfectly honest.

lewisham ranger 15 Sep 18 20:59 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 3,773 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
and anyway, is there any reason why my ORIGINAL thread isn't enough to discuss this horse's chances in the derby?

i would say too darn hot is a miler . he may change over the winter . i wouldnt have a pound on him for the derby . its all about opinions though , put your hard earned on and reap the reward if your right !

He's all 2 year old for me. Won't see which way Quorto goes in the Guineas

I'm turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so.

Nice performance today, value for more than the winning margin imo and given I can't have the current market leaders TDH or AVD staying the Derby trip the 25/1 is OK with me.

Also done a treble with Too Darn Hot for the Guineas @ 7/2 and Ten Sovereigns for the Commonwealth @ 5/1

I too think Too Darn Hot is a miler, and at most a 10f horse; Japan, Mohawk and Anthony Van Dyck would be the 3 for me unless they emulate Saxon Warrior; Quorto and Godolphin 2 years in succession, I'd find that extremely hard to contemplate.

Gosden sees him more as a mile or mile-and-a-quarter horse for next year but beyond that he's not sure.

Let's win The 2000G1st, the rest is merely a bonus, I firmly believe.

11/4 now. Charge......

I see him as the perfect Derby horse going from 2 to 3. Settles well and explosive turn of foot.

I’ve had a saver on Japan at 8/1 ew. The 2000 gns will answer many questions !

^^
Not for a while longer as he's been scratched from the 2000G at Newmarket due to a setback. But, he'll take in either the Irish 2000G (3/1) or Dante Stakes about a week earlier, which? A fact finding run for the Epsom Derby in the Dante Stakes despite all the negative soundbites from Gosden about his possible stamina limitation over 12f? I'd not think so; 3/1 for the Irish version is a stonking price, if 2nd guessing correctly.

your guessing at logic 123 , i,m the lloyd webers , we dont keep colts , i,ve got one top class bred to stay , doesnt shape like he,ll stay , but , may just be brilliant . lets roll the dice .err johnny were going with the dante after the heat ok old boy , just looking through my progeny catalogue whom to send you next year . theres a good boy johnny

Let's hope Gosden can be more succinct and categoric about where TDH is going eg Derby or no Derby. No more fudge, please, Mr Gosden.

He returned to the working grounds last week and was noted doing two routine canters under regular partner Maisie Hainey on Warren Hill. And, Gosden stated "the plan would be to take him to the Dante, but we haven't worked him yet and we'll know more when we've stepped him up next week."

The above comment from Gosden despite he had been none too supportive about his stamina ability to stay the Derby trip. The Dante is only is two weeks away; if misses the Irish 2000G cannot be discounted (I believe) given what Grimthorpe (no connection to TDH) said about the possible participation of Calyx in the 2000G this saturday ie a hard decision to make not running in the 2000G something you want on the CV on every horse.

The connections of TDH are no different, I'd guess,...unless Sheikh Mo gets his hands on TDH prior.

tadaah ! think on a human level

Can he do it or will he bomb on thursday, and revert to Irish 2000G? I hope not. I hope he'd achieved at least what Minding did or Roaring Lion; a bonus if he matches the achievement of Almanzor.

Yet another winter fav for the Guineas and Derby bites the dust.

No wonder the bookies love them.

Cant help thinking if telecaster hadnt run yesterday hed be 2/1 fav and a certain runner in The Derby.

That's a good point and he'd probably start even shorter.

I think you are right Geoff M .

An unsuccessful attempt in the Dante he'd gatecrash the Irish 2000G, according to connections, as he's so well. Not the least surprise if he does, and I hope he does. He's the highest rated 2 yr old by a wide margin; the St James's Palace in on 18th June so 3 weeks, and plenty of time to recover post 26th May Ireland exertion, if so,

when jonny g says the horse came out of the dante incredibly fresh , i believe him at his word . even so irish 2000 it comes pretty quick  in my mind , i,m thinking jg knows the horse lacks scope and needs to strike now . he would be perfect for the bc mile if you put him away after winning the irish and a perhaps less successful run at royal ascot . thats how i see his calendar

If he turns up in Ireland I think he'll beat Magna Grecia and Skardu doing handstand. Post that stick to a mile - do not be greedy Gosden. For instance, AOB screwed-up with Saxon Warrior--->Guineas--->Epsom Derby--->Irish Derby--->Eclipse--->Juddemonte--->Irish Champion.

personally i dont think he,ll win the irish guineas or the st . james  , i think his game is gonna be breeders cup mile

I think he'll walk away with it, if he runs; he's miles ahead of Magna Grecia and Skardu. I believe he'd be as prolific over 8f as Roaring Lion over 10f. Sadly, I cashout at 5/1 on doubles/trebles when Gosden indicated SJP post the Dante. But, no 10f Mr Gosden,

he has just had a hard race over 1.2 miles last week ,i would be keen to take him on !

The market could be indicating that too eg 2nd fav to Magna Grecia (would have been odds-on but for injury prior to Newmarket). But, I'll be guided by Gosden; TDH was too fresh in the Dante, and was looked after by Dettori too.

well 123 i think your just counting chickens regarding last years form and have the head in the clouds regarding his lack of scope . we,ll see . for me mg wins the irish guineas . best of luck though , if we all had the same opinion it wouldnt be much fun .

I just like to see him run to last season's form/rating; 1st race of the season in the Dante after missing Newmarket was unfortunate and misplaced (in my opinion) and prioritising Epsom not St James's Palace. As such, only 9 days prior to Irish 2000G, but I'm guided by Gosden and Dettori. No immediate reward even if he wins, but SJP is different.

Let's hope TDH, MG and Skardu make the race on saturday.

Can see no possibility of Too Darn Hot running in a Derby. He might have put the SJP in doubt after today's effort. They might give him a break and come back for something like the Sussex Stakes.

That's not what Gosden has alluded to. He's saying the SJP will be his next race, and TDH has run a solid race considering the Dante was only 9 days ag. As for the winner Pheonix Of Spain (PoS) he seemed to have improved from last season. Also, he did not go to Newmarket and the freshest horse. We'll see at Ascot; 4/1 (from 6/4) for TDH, value?