Horse Antepost

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19 Aug 18 08:59
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,436 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Market headed by two O’Brien horses but I’m assuming only one will run

As such I was surprised to see Angels Hideaway as big as 7/1 (Hills) for this - actually with the ‘boost’ feature I got nearly 15/2. Super impressive in the Princess Margaret last time and looks a bombproof e/w bet to me.
Pause Switch to Standard View Lowther Stakes - York 23rd Aug
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Report unclepuncle August 21, 2018 2:14 PM BST
Now a best price of 2/1 - you are all welcome.
Report Charlton2005 August 22, 2018 9:51 PM BST
Report Charlton2005 August 22, 2018 9:52 PM BST
just getting the keys warmed up for you uncle Grin
Report Figgis August 22, 2018 11:38 PM BST
Well done uncle. Win or lose I think Angels Hideaway should be clear fav ahead of Fairyland, and that's nothing to do with the supposed poor form of the O'Brien yard. I don't think the Albany form is that great but the race has been made to look better by the likes of Pretty Pollyana, Angels Hideaway and even the winner, to a lesser degree, showing improved form since. I reckon AH's form last time was far ahead of what she showed in the Albany. Of course Fairyland, or any of the others, could improve too, but AH has the best form.
Report unclepuncle August 23, 2018 8:45 AM BST
There is obviously little between them and I was amazed AH was so big antepost.
If I were only looking at the race today I would probably leave the front pair alone at 2/1jf and have a little e/w bet on Queen Jo Jo at 16/1.
Report Figgis August 23, 2018 9:53 AM BST
I actually have AH 8lbs (a couple of lengths on my scale) ahead of Fairyland now, even though she was behind her at Ascot. Although after only 3 runs the O'Brien filly may improve again I'd still much rather be a layer of her at this price.
Report Howellsy August 23, 2018 10:27 AM BST
I have Fairyland's 2nd start speed figure the same as AH achieved last time out and would be very keen on Fairyland, who beat AH fair and square at Ascot, were it not for the 9 week break and the possible problems in the yard. AH clearly has a tendency to hang markedly under pressure and this was not exposed in a fairly weak renewal of the PM last time. Those who took 7-1 have no doubt got a great bet but it's a watching brief for me.
Report Figgis August 23, 2018 10:37 AM BST
Howellsy, so you think Fairyland underperformed last time compared to her Curragh win?
Report Howellsy August 23, 2018 10:42 AM BST
Figgis, I certainly couldn't give the Albany much of a figure but I put that down to the race being run at an uneven pace. It was a less impressive speed figure but a much better performance under pressure, staying on at a stiff track.
Report Figgis August 23, 2018 10:52 AM BST
I have her improving 2lbs at Ascot. I see the RP and Raceform speed figures have Fairyland clear on her Curragh win. Where I differ is rightly or wrongly I have more than one allowance for the straight on KG day leading to AH being an improved filly. In my view there is no way all the straight races were run under the exact same conditions that day but we shall see.
Report Figgis August 23, 2018 10:59 AM BST
That said, I'm still not getting how they both have Fairyland running faster at the Curragh than Ascot. The moderate earlier handicap at the Curragh was run faster. Allowing for the weight difference that still puts Fairyland only a few pounds ahead of the winner, and comparing with the later Gp2 race still leaves Fairyland nothing special. That win looks to have been overrated to me.
Report Figgis August 23, 2018 11:18 AM BST
On the perceived problems with the O'Brien yard, I caught a bit of Johnny Murtagh's comments yesterday regarding it being probably more to do with the fact that a lot of the Coolmore runners just aren't that good this season and I agree with that. Saxon Warrior went backwards after the Guineas but so have a few of their other past Guineas winners when the rest of the yard had been going well. The only recent runner of theirs that I would say definitely underperformed unexpectedly was Magic Wand, but something showed up after the race there.
Report Howellsy August 23, 2018 11:18 AM BST
I don't say my speed figures are 100% reliable or anywhere close - but you'd have to say their proximity at R Ascot suggests there's not a lot between them but Fairyland would be my confident pick if both come under pressure at the same time.
Report unclepuncle August 23, 2018 2:01 PM BST
Back down to earth.
Report Howellsy August 23, 2018 2:02 PM BST
A race that proved very little: AH didn't run her race, and Fairyland, given a very canny ride by Moore, and having the run of it, scraped home.
Report Figgis August 23, 2018 2:02 PM BST
You were spot on Howellsy, well done. Very poor run from Gosden's. Sometimes feels almost impossible to oppose the late Coolmore informed late money.
Report the bloob August 23, 2018 2:06 PM BST
strange ride from Frankie, he was given a couple of chances to take a gap but chose not to. Ryan Moore did everything right there

I don't think it changed the result, AH seemed beat regardless
Report unclepuncle August 23, 2018 2:10 PM BST
I think having the rail was the difference between AH winning rather than TMB.
Report unclepuncle August 23, 2018 2:10 PM BST
^Fairyland, not AH.
Report impossible123 August 23, 2018 3:31 PM BST
I laid the winner,..that's why it won when looking "dead" in the water when the eventual runner-up horse raced alongside to challenge. That's AOB's 2nd win since sunday (I think), and 1st at York. Will Magic Wand run her race - she's her ground - or will she be given a Kew Garden ride by Moore for a race in the near future instead?
Report unclepuncle September 29, 2018 12:59 PM BST
After the complete non event at York I have to give AH another chance given she is 28 on here.
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