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impossible123
06 Aug 18 16:31
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 11,992 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Poets Word have been confirmed for this; the other two main protagonists are Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior. If all three show up it has the ingredients of a great race in the making. If Without Parole or Cracksman shows up too, we could have the best 10f horses on show.

Best Prices: Poets Word - 3/1 (skybet/matchbook), 'paddies' only 13/8.
                  Roaring Lion - 3/1
                  Saxon Warrior - 5/1
                  Cracksman - 8/1
                  Without Parole - 25/1
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Report impossible123 August 7, 2018 5:06 PM BST
I think this is Poets Word for the taking unless Saxon Warrior makes an almighty improvement to beat Roaring Lion convincingly, but given the well-being of AOB's horses and their performances lately this looks an extremely tall order indeed; 5/2 best price is ok too, I think, all things being equal.
Report impossible123 August 8, 2018 5:50 PM BST
AOB on Saxon Warrior: "At the moment, we're looking at the Juddmonte International for him next and then we'll have a better idea of which route to take afterwards. He has entries in both the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (8f) and the Champion Stakes (10f) and could go for either race."

From the above one could safely and confidently infer if Saxon Warrior does not win this race (on merit) he'll be dropped in trip to 8f, and possibly meet Alpha Centauri in the QE II Stakes at Ascot on 20th October.
Report Millerracing67 August 11, 2018 1:00 PM BST
Had a couple of small interests on here, Cracksman 11.0 & Enable 10.0. Both want rain, doesn't sound like Ensble is going to York?? Some ease in the ground might change their view on that?
Report impossible123 August 11, 2018 2:58 PM BST
I think this would be too tough an intro for Enable given her injury, and the Arc her ultimate target; Cracksman is all about the weather which could turn in his favour - a bit of precipitation expected; the latest comments by AOB about Saxon warrior did not inspire confidence.

If no rain this can go to Poets Word as I believe he's improved this season, but Roaring Lion will be no pushover though.
Report duffy August 13, 2018 3:57 PM BST
Is "rain" the only issue regarding Cracksman's participation? if so then the 8's is big....similar scenario to the KG...hopefully with his participation this time....the long straight will make all the difference to him.
Report unclepuncle August 13, 2018 4:52 PM BST
^ Barely any rain in the forecast after today - and dry, warm and quite sunny for the 5-6 days leading up to the race, so if Gosden is true to his word Cracksman won't be running.

Only way he might run is if Poets Word swerves the race, unlikely but Stoute may possibly feel he needs more time to recover.
Report impossible123 August 13, 2018 5:28 PM BST
The intention is to run Cracksman but underfoot condition is a prerequisite, I understand, similar scenario to the King George. I agree, 10 here represents value given he'd be nearer 5/2 or 3/1; some rain is expected now and then.
Report Andrew in Sweden August 13, 2018 9:19 PM BST
Anyone want to lay Roaring Lion at better odds than the general 3/1 bookmakers price ?

I would back it tomorrow if so (you then have the NR advantage).
Report deepingfox August 15, 2018 4:06 PM BST
I am going to row in with the 3 year-olds in this race, looking forward to going up to York, to see the race.

I'm a big fan of Saxon Warrior, and Roaring Lion, but having seen how LATROBE strode to the front in the Irish Derby, I am very interested in the step back in trip, chosen by connections.

He is a tall imposing frame of a horse, and much the most inexperienced, so a classic win LTO was commendable.

He showed a lot of speed, to join the leaders, and to my eyes, has the ability to go from the front if needed, up Yorks long flat straight.

He isn't an obvious selection, but at 25/1 in a place,in the bettin market, I think he could go off at less than half that price and run well, and maybe manage to stay out front.

He is much the best chance of the long-shot prices.
Report impossible123 August 15, 2018 4:54 PM BST
York had 33mm of rain on monday and the going is presently good, good to soft in places. The Met 5 day forecast is a front of rain to pass through early thursday morning and then largely dry and cloudy.

33mm that fell was not predicted, and it looks like going to the wire again whether Cracksman runs or not, I think.
Report EastLower Gooner August 16, 2018 12:34 PM BST
At completely silly prices I would be happy to have Latrobe on my side.
Report the bloob August 16, 2018 1:02 PM BST
is the price of Latrobe based on likely participation? I agree it looks a massive price, but I fear that is due to the probability of being entered
Report impossible123 August 16, 2018 1:57 PM BST
I think Latrobe has two options for York eg Juddmonte or Great Voltigeur, but connections are leaning towards the former, the last I read.

Cracksman's been backed into as short as 5/1 with 'billes' but 9 available here. Maybe it's because Gosden has left him in at today's Confirmation Stage. No significant precipitation forecast though.
Report deepingfox August 16, 2018 7:09 PM BST
Impossible, you're right, they prefer to run Latrobe in the Juddmonte, the last message given by the trainer.

I can see that being the likely outcome, with 5 or 6x the prize money, and the class 10F group one race in the country. He also has a 5lb penalty if running in the group two, Great Voltigeur.

That's why I took the 25/1 on him, before the 5-day decs. Now hoping that plan carries through, and he lines up in the bigger race.
Report impossible123 August 18, 2018 5:18 PM BST
Still money for Cracksman who's not a confirmed runner yet. He's into 5/1, or is it a red herring engineered by the bookies to part money from the naive punters? It's good ground at present at York from good/good to soft in places previously, with little precipitation expected between now and next wednesday.
Report the bloob August 18, 2018 5:34 PM BST
Latrobe a big price now on here, possible NR?
Report impossible123 August 18, 2018 10:59 PM BST
The prices here are commonly subject to manipulation eg Saxon Warrior and Latrobe (presently); Roaring Lion (just recently). Only Poets Word has been consistently solid throughout. Unless the heavens open (soon) contrary to weather forecast the support for Cracksman would be another example (by bookies perhaps).
Report Paterson92 August 18, 2018 11:51 PM BST
Not usually a race I bother too much about but I remember looking forward to the race last year as it was a very strong renewal (Ulysses, Churchill, Barney Roy and Cliffs Of Moher).

Thought I would have a closer look at how the 3 year olds fared against their elders in the last few years in this race:

2017 (7 ran) - Churchill (2nd at 5/2f), Barney Roy (3rd at 11/4), Cliffs Of Moher (4th at 9/2), Shutter Speed (6th at 9/1)
2016 (12 ran) - Hawkbill (8th at 6/1), Wings Of Desire (9th at 8/1)
2015 (7 ran) - Arabian Queen (1st at 50/1), Golden Horn (2nd at 4/9f), Time Test (4th at 4/1)
2014 (6 ran) - Australia (1st at 8/13f), The Grey Gatsby (2nd at 12/1), Arod (5th at 20/1), Kingfisher (6th at 100/1)
2013 (6 ran) - Trading Leather (2nd at 5/1), Hillstar (4th at 12/1), Toronado (6th at 9/4)
2012 (9 ran) - N/A (no 3yo runners)
2011 (5 ran) - N/A (no 3yo runners)
2010 (9 ran) - Dick Turpin (5th at 5/1)
Report Millerracing67 August 19, 2018 12:43 PM BST
Laid off the bet on Cracksman (@ 7.0) weather looks fair at York, some light showers 2day, ground Gd g/f in places atm.
I'd doubt he'll run?? Had a few ££ on Roaring Lion @ 3.9, if the ground is g/f I'd fancy him to win it.
Report Trusty August 20, 2018 10:52 AM BST
Cracksman not even declared, Addeyyb and Magical out as well. Nice 8 runner race!
Report unclepuncle August 20, 2018 12:59 PM BST
Just watched the BBC weather forecast on the News Channel and it says rain on Wednesday - surprised Gosden didn’t declare and wait and see.
Report Figgis August 20, 2018 1:00 PM BST
Backed Poet's Word in the KG and if I thought he could show his POW form here he'd be a good thing. On watching the KG live I assumed that Poet's Word had run pretty much near his best and Crystal Ocean was better than I thought, but on analysing the times afterwards the only conclusion I could draw was that PW still won despite running significantly worse than he had in the POW. The extra distance wasn't the excuse as he was already being ridden hard before that became a factor. It may just have been a temporary regression from which he'll recover, but as he'd had a decent break since the POW I wonder if he's already peaked for the year. Even if you take the view that he ran right to form in the KG then there still has to be a big doubt him, that he'll decline after a couple of hard races. Win or not, I'll pass at a similar price to last time where he had much better prospects in my view.

I know that the fancied horses fought out the Eclipse but for me, in spite of a decent pace on the day, the actual form/time of the race is garbage compared to the usual standard, one of the worst I've seen. The Irish Derby was another crap Gp1. Without Parole's best form gives him a good chance and I said at the time of the Sussex that he might have peaked going into the race. It's anybody's guess though if he can recover so quickly, so not one I could back. Of the Godolphin runners I thought Thunder Snow was a better 3yo than Benbatl, at least over distances shorter than 12f. It's difficult to know how good his latest dirt win is, but it appeared he'd improved from 3 to 4 and he's had a good rest since. I see Suroor says he may need the run and they're gearing him for a late season American campaign, but in a race where I don't think any of the more obvious runners go into it primed I'll probably chuck a few quid his way on the day.
Report unclepuncle August 20, 2018 1:15 PM BST
I know you are ‘time’ man but surely Without Parole’s form, even before Goodwood is dire - beat Gabr 3/4l at Sandown and Gustav Klimt 1/2l at Ascot and look what they have done since.Shocked

PW should piss it if he is near 100%.
There is obviously very little between RL and SW so under normal circumstances the 5/1 on SW might be an e/w bet to nothing but given the stable form you would have to be brave (or stupid).Crazy
Report Figgis August 20, 2018 1:31 PM BST
Uncle, I have Without Parole's SJP win equal to SW's substandard Guineas win (SW's Eclipse second was only marginally better than his poor Derby effort). The Sandown win over Gabr was a slowly run affair and concealed WP's real superiority over the field that day. I know Gustav Klimt hasn't done anything for the SJP form since but he ran a career peak that day while running on from the rear off a fast pace. The form book is littered with such performances over the years, which is why I'm reluctant to let one horse hold the form of a race down.
Report Millerracing67 August 20, 2018 8:06 PM BST
Poets does bring the best form into the race, so he's entitled to be fav.
Roaring Lion will need to step up again to beat him, "if" he's still at his very best, after a tough KG win.
Couldn't really back an AOB horse in G1s atm?? So even though Saxon look the biz in the 2000gns, he doesn't seem to be progressing since? his Eclipse effort was much better, but I thought Lion beat him a shade comfy.
Without Parole is interesting, esp on fast ground, but I prefer 10f form for this race.
Don't think Benbatl is a G1 horse over here?
& Latrobe looked a Leger horse to win when winning the Ire Derby, I'll be shocked if he's quick enough to win a 10f G1 ??
Roaring Lion did me a turn winning the Eclipse, he looks a 3yo on the up, & looks like he's going to get his fast ground, so I've sided with him.
Report gpz6316 August 20, 2018 8:48 PM BST
i think the fact cracksman didnt declare tells you something about the wellbeing of roaring lion . vibes his work was exceptionally good
Report gpz6316 August 20, 2018 9:14 PM BST
you could  view cracksmans absence as a sign hes been let down and primed to win the champion stakes . or is he even still at the top level ? form figures this season look great ,but, hes been under performing . i went to the pictures in 1999  and watched a film called  ronin . robert de niro played a ex special agent . how did you know it was a sting ? when there is doubt there is no doubt ! he replied , maybe theirs a opportunity to find a nice price in the champion .
Report dunlaying August 20, 2018 9:18 PM BST
Poets Word for me . Benbatl looks e/w value since Ballydoyle is under a cloud and the Goodwood form of Without Parole has taken some knocks . I have no doubt Without Parole is good but is he as good as some of us thought?
Report gpz6316 August 20, 2018 9:29 PM BST
maybe recoletos
Report impossible123 August 20, 2018 9:40 PM BST
Whether Cracksman has underperformed or not the jury is still out as he's not been campaigned accordingly so far. For instance, in his 1st race this season on a course he'd not excelled in the past he was also given a harder race by Dettori eg the jockey had Cracksman further back than he ought to thus given a harder race to win against Salouen; the Prince Of Wales Stakes over 10f was 2f shorter than his optimum distance of 12f, and on good to firm ground Cracksman was on a hiding to nothing.

Cracksman might also have met an improved Poets Word who'd won every race this season. The weather had not been kind to him either. Maybe a long overdue compensation in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, but 1st a small race like The Arc (weather permitting) to get out of the way prior.
Report gpz6316 August 20, 2018 9:52 PM BST
well i,m gonna be on study of man or enable
Report gpz6316 August 20, 2018 10:06 PM BST
anyhow expect the lion to roar imo best of luck
Report gpz6316 August 21, 2018 9:19 PM BST
ladbrokes with their ear to the ground are very short on poets word 6/4 . so he has plenty of positivity about him and should run his race .is he good enough to fend off top class 3yo s . i dont think so . each to their own lets go lion !
Report gpz6316 August 21, 2018 9:23 PM BST
interestingly ladbrokes dont like aob runners and they should know . i reckon bad luck in running is all that can deny the lion
Report twonky August 21, 2018 9:52 PM BST
Be bat at 12/1 for me
Report deepingfox August 21, 2018 11:14 PM BST
I think that LATROBE is under-rated, it's a really deep race, fantastic to be watching it live, and hope for Latrobe to shock the favs.
Of the favs, I would prefer ROARING LION, and may back him too, as a saver.
Report Figgis August 22, 2018 8:31 AM BST
Had a rethink on this race. Rather than take a shot in the dark about the worth of Thunder Snow's Meydan win, I would rather side with Without Prejudice. I have no idea if he'll return to form but I do know that if he does he's sure to be involved in the finish if Poet's Word is below his best like I think he may be.
Report Figgis August 22, 2018 8:32 AM BST
Duh, I mean Without Parole Crazy
Report twonky August 22, 2018 9:07 AM BST
Every chance that poets will bounce. The kg has a knack of finishing horses over the years and I can see the same thing happening again, plus I get the nagging feeling that he is more effective going right handed.
Report jed.davison August 22, 2018 10:31 AM BST
Every time I watch Saxon Warrior's run in the Guineas, he looks more like a sprinter than a middle-distance performer. He travels like a bull, quickens decisively between the three- and two poles, and is being closed down by Tip Two Win as the post looms.

For me, every yard he goes beyond a mile makes him an inferior horse and every yard he goes back from a mile will make him a better horse.

You couldn't look at the Guineas and how and where he quickened and think - if you weren't looking at his genes - that he could be better for a further test of his stamina.
Report Millerracing67 August 22, 2018 10:36 AM BST
A bit more ££ interest on Lion at 4.2 for me, little bit surprised he's going out the way?
Gd luck with your plays lads. Cracking race, just hope they don't make it a crawl??
Report impossible123 August 22, 2018 11:02 AM BST
An intriguing race in prospect nevertheless, unless Saxon Warrior has not  been inconvenienced by the bug in his yard, and the run in The Eclipse was a fraction too soon after his exertion in the Irish Derby just a week prior, I think, this will rest between Poets Word and Roaring Lion - both 10f specialists to me. But the deciding factor could be that 7lbs wfa to the younger runner; Latrobe looks the most likely to pace-set, I think or I hope.
Report twonky August 22, 2018 12:20 PM BST
Nice to see the money coming for Benbatl, 12s into 8s now
Report unclepuncle August 22, 2018 1:11 PM BST
I’ll be very disappointed if the winner doesn’t come from the first three in the market.
RL has had the perfect prep and is becoming tempting e/w at 3/1+.
Report impossible123 August 22, 2018 3:45 PM BST
An emphatic win for Roaring Lion - a champion 10f horse no doubt. Saxon Warrior had every chance; Poets Word was a little unlucky being boxed in, but the result was never in doubt once Roaring Lion had taken it up even if Poets Word had had a clear run.
Report Millerracing67 August 22, 2018 4:00 PM BST
I enjoyed that :-) Back pain!!! What back pain :-) lol.
Report Andrew in Sweden August 22, 2018 4:23 PM BST
Andrew in Sweden    13 Aug 18 21:19
 
Anyone want to lay Roaring Lion at better odds than the general 3/1 bookmakers price ?

I would back it tomorrow if so (you then have the NR advantage).


Grin
Report Millerracing67 August 22, 2018 4:27 PM BST
Have they overdone the watering at York?? Looks very loose on top? Everyone charging to the stands side ??
Report Andrew in Sweden August 22, 2018 4:39 PM BST
Did the same when Frankel won it
Report unclepuncle August 22, 2018 5:14 PM BST
Ever since they relaid the track about 10 years ago they have come centre to stands side - always used to stay on the rails before that and it was a huge advantage to be drawn low on the round course.
Report impossible123 August 22, 2018 5:17 PM BST
The winning times for this race and The Great Voltigeur were below standard despite no prisoner was taken at the off.

Roaring Lion, if running in the Irish and/or Ascot Champion Stakes, and on good/good to firm ground will take a lot of beating regardless of opposition. Gosden has indicated the horse will run even on good to soft ground, but not soft.
Report Figgis August 22, 2018 8:02 PM BST
Well done RL backers. Backed him for the Derby but haven't touched him since Sad. Looks a below standard winning performance to me, but with the way he won and the shortage of good horses this season it would be no surprise to see him go in again.
Report gpz6316 August 22, 2018 8:15 PM BST
ya shame he didnt quite stay in the derby as i fancied him myself and highlighted his chance . anyhow keep looking the next winner is just around the corner .
Report the bloob August 22, 2018 8:35 PM BST
the way the track is riding is a little odd, it seemed to be recently that the golden highway was about 3/4 of the way across from the stands side, and in the sprints that favoured horses drawn low. But recently this seems to have changed back to what it was 5 or 6 years ago when the stands side was the place to be
Report twonky August 22, 2018 9:25 PM BST
I think it had more to do with soumillion where the horses went. But as an aside, today's daily mirror indicated that horses drawn low on the starlight course held sway...be interesting to see if a jockey goes up the rail on the turn tomorrow. My memory fades, but when Ascot was transferred to York, which year I don't know, but didn't we get some strange results for the Royal meeting?
Report impossible123 August 22, 2018 10:16 PM BST
I think you have a valid point for the winning time above standard despite a decent pace set from the off; a longer and unconventional taken by Soumillon on Thunder Snow looked the likeliest reason.
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