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unclepuncle
01 Aug 18 08:15
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,436 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Hardly a vintage renewal but with the dead 8 runners and a shortie there has to be a value bet in there somewhere.Mischief

It has to be said that the mile division, other than Alpha Centauri anyway, looks terribly weak so Without Parole won't have to be anything special which I guess explains his price given his unbetaen record and trainer - might even look value afterwards?.

But for all Without Parole is unbeaten and is trained by the best his actual form is hardly earth shattering. Beating Gabr 3/4l at Sandown (been well beaten 3 times since includng when odds on in a weak race at Pontefract) and then beating the seemingly exposed Gustav Klimt (who reopposes today) by 1/2L at Ascot with Tip Two Win in fourth (who finished last here yesterday). I know they say neither of those races saw him in the best light but does he deserve to be 7/4?

Expert Eye was very impressive last time in the Jersey over 7f, but again the form hasn't worked out at all with the 3rd,4th,5th and 6th all beaten in their subsequent runs. Plus there is the question of the extra furlong which on breeding is very suspect.
Again you have to respect his connections but are they just throwing a dart hoping to win a weak Group 1 to enhance his paddock value . He'd have been hot favourite for the Lennox but that wouldn't have made any real difference to his profile and it's not like his owner needs the prize money.

That then leaves a French horse who is surely just a social runner for the race sponsor and the group of older horses who are basically top class handicappers / Group 3 horses, and finish in a heap every time they run.
Lightning Spear has surely had too many chances to win a Group 1 now and I guess Beat The Bank looks the 'professional'  each way bet given he won at the meeting last year, but at the prices I have to stick with Lord Glitters at 20 on here.

Would prefer softer going (wish the race had been yesterday) and the track is an unknown but being a hold up horse who enjoys weaving through horses he may actually relish it -  just hope they go a good pace which they usually do given the downhill nature of the track.

GL All
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Report the bloob August 1, 2018 10:09 AM BST
I have to agree with you, no rock solid form of the market leaders and Lord Glitters beat Lightning Spear at Ascot so 20 seams value. I'm waiting to see if 8 runners and I may have an e/w
Report Figgis August 1, 2018 2:43 PM BST
I agree that With Parole is skinny at 7/4. It was a below standard winning performance for the SJP. I've read that he's an improving 3yo but for me he'd already shown he could run to that SJP form when he won the Yarmouth maiden in a fast time so I don't see the SJP win as real improvement, and even though he was a decisive winner at Ascot I thought it was quite hard fought. So even though that form gives him a winning chance I wouldn't be interested in him at this price. The trouble is finding one to beat him. Last time Expert Eye put up the type of performance I was hoping for when I backed him for the Guineas, but by my reckoning it still would've only seen him finishing second. A repeat of that would see him at least go close here and I still believe he'll stay a mile, but in my view he hasn't improved from his Vintage win and I wonder if he'll remain an in and out performer so couldn't back him with confidence. In my view the only 3yo to really improve last time was Gustav Klimt but he really had to be driven and was staying on past beaten runners in a fast run race so I'm not sure it's an effort he'll build on.

I've always thought 7lbs is too much for the older milers to concede, I'd have it 5lbs, and with no really top class older milers this year they ought to be up against it, but in a race like this with so many question marks there is no result that would surprise me so good luck with the Lord Glitters bet uncle.
Report Figgis August 1, 2018 2:44 PM BST
*Without Parole
Report Howellsy August 1, 2018 3:25 PM BST
Without Parole is a standout bet for me at 7-4. Unbeaten and won the SJP with no right to be winning it at that stage in his career. I must be the only one who saw nothing in his Yarmouth figure. I think he's progressed tremendously well and will reach a peak today.
Report Howellsy August 1, 2018 3:41 PM BST
Wow that was incredibly disappointing for WP. No excuses whatsoever. Frankel dealt another blow.
Report unclepuncle August 1, 2018 3:44 PM BST
Chose the wrong older horse - having backed Ligtning Spear in the Lockinge and Queen Anne.Cry
Lord Glitters ran well but the lack of pace meant he wasted too much ground switching around horses to the outside.
Report Figgis August 1, 2018 3:49 PM BST
Nice each way though uncle. Without Parole looks to have peaked, at least temporarily. Nice to see Lightning Spear win, no idea what Chapman's on about, lack of pace didn't change the winning result one little bit.
Report the bloob August 1, 2018 3:53 PM BST
a clear run and Lord Glitters could have won that
Report unclepuncle August 1, 2018 4:34 PM BST
Maybe - not a great ride by Tudhope.
He got checked about 4f out and had to snatch up and lost a length and then he was going well but behind So Beloved (who weas never going to take him to the leaders) but boxed in by Gustav Klimt and so at the furlong pole he had to tug him back and move him to the wide outisde to get past them which must have cost speed and distance.

It was always likely to be messy though, but on easier going in the QEII I know which one I'd want to be on. Hopefully get some decent prices antepost between now and then.
Report roadrunner46 August 1, 2018 5:51 PM BST
read your write up this morning, thought you made some strong points, lord glitters only got up to beat
lightening spear in the last strides into 2nd, so form was saying nothing between those two, understand why
you picked LG because of the price, WD liked the winner myself.two top finishes in group 1 company this
season. havent seen the race yet, thought it my come down which horse had the best position in the race
on the run to the line, lightening spear he dont half finish with a rattling run in his races.
Report unclepuncle August 1, 2018 8:01 PM BST
WD RR.
Lightning Spear travelled like a dream and had a perfect passage - quickened when asked and the race was over.
Report roadrunner46 August 1, 2018 8:19 PM BST
didnt back it, im on a break from gambling. watch the race it was beat by rhodendron, jockey waited way too
long before he made his move that day, very unlucky in that race.
Report impossible123 August 5, 2018 7:43 PM BST
I think Expert Eye forewent a victory in the Lennox by running here. Will he run again over 8f after this defeat despite having every chance and main rival Without Parole did not perform? I hope not; he's a very good 7f horse.
Report unclepuncle August 5, 2018 9:54 PM BST
You just don’t understand how things work n the real world do you.Cry

The Lennox is a Group 2 so was of no value to his stallion CV - he needs a Group 1.
He should probably have run in today’s Prix Maurice de Gheest.

The only 7f Group 1 is the Foret on Arc weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go for the Breeders Cup mile.
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 5, 2018 10:45 PM BST
The trip would have been perfect in France today. I don't know why Stoute persists with him over a mile, I think he is always going to be just outstayed by top milers.
Report impossible123 August 6, 2018 5:18 PM BST
8f is more sexy than 7f; it also enhances the stud value of the beast.
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