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jamesp
30 Jul 18 16:57
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 3,197 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Having taken a two-year break from ante-post betting on the 1,000 Guineas, during which time the race has been won by a couple of fillies that no one could have seriously fancied on their two-year-old form (Winter and Billesdon Brook), I've decided to dip a toe in the water for next year's race.

The Prix de Lisieux, a 6f maiden for unraced fillies at Deauville, has been won by some smart fillies over the years, notably the great Miesque (1986), Ravinella (1987) and Miesque's multiple Gr.1-winning daughter East Of The Moon (1993). Since the race was re-established in the racing programme in 2007, after a gap of a few years, it hasn't produced any further Gr.1 winners, though several fillies have been Gr.1-placed: Conference Call (2007) and Polydream (2017) were both placed 2nd in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, and What A Name (3rd in 2012) was runner-up in the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. It has also produced a number of dual- and multiple-Gr.3 winners in recent years such as Top Toss, Soneva, Mashoora, What A Name, Sasparella and Polydream.

I've no doubt that this year's winner Tasleya, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget for Sheikh Hamdan, will be well up to winning in pattern company and could well turn out to be a Gr.1 performer. Her dam Mashoora, who won this very maiden race for the same connections in 2011, later won the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence and was sent off 13-2 for the 1000 Guineas but didn't run her race and finished down the field (later won the Gr.3 Prix de la Porte Maillot and finished 3rd in the Gr.1 Prix Rothschild).

Tasleya was not well drawn (on the outside) for her debut but she made a big impression, coming from last place, smoothly making up ground, accelerating into the lead and quickly taking a few lengths out of the field to win easily by 3½ lengths. The trainer said afterwards (my translation): 'She won really nicely. It would appear she's a filly with a future. I was hoping she would win on her debut, but I didn't think she would win so easily.'

This nice scopey daughter of Frankel will surely make her mark in pattern company before too long. If she were trained by Aidan O'Brien she would probably be around 14-1 for the Guineas, but 33-1 seemed a reasonable price and that's my initial bet for next year's race.
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Report unclepuncle August 4, 2018 2:28 PM BST
Had a pony on at 40/1.
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 4, 2018 3:19 PM BST
She looks a very nice filly, you can certainly tell she's a Frankel offspring.
Report jamesp August 5, 2018 4:12 PM BST
Since the [Prix de Lisieux] was re-established in the racing programme in 2007, after a gap of a few years, it hasn't produced any further Gr.1 winners [...]
Update: last year's Prix de Lisieux winner Polydream has just won the Gr.1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville this afternoon. Another top-class filly to have won that maiden race as a juvenile.
Report blackbarn August 14, 2018 11:20 AM BST
Tasleya declared for the Shadwell Calvados at Deauville on Saturday. English entries are Comedy (Karl Burke) and Beyond Reason (Charlie Appleby).  Should be a decent contest.
Report deepingfox August 15, 2018 1:00 AM BST
TASLEYA running in the Prix Calvados means she is following in her mother's footsteps (Mashoora) in both her first 2 starts.

Mashoora found Elusive Kate too good in the Calvados, which was no disgrace as that filly won the Gp 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on her next start.

Here's hoping TASLEYA goes one better than her mother at the weekend, then she may take the Boussac route herself.
Report deepingfox August 18, 2018 5:51 AM BST
Prix Calvados at Deauville today has an overnight market with Paddy Power/Betfair of TASLEYA 5/4 fav, Beyond Reason 7/4, Byron Bay 9/2, 11/1 bar. 7 runners.
Report blackbarn August 18, 2018 9:06 AM BST
Thanks deeping.  Her task has been made easier by the absence of Comedy, but Beyond Reason will provide a decent test.
Report jamesp August 18, 2018 10:07 AM BST
Tasleya obviously has to win today if she's going to develop into a Guineas filly: defeat would put a severe dent in her ambitions. I'm slightly worried about the soft ground (it was good ground when she won impressively on debut, though the official description was 'good to soft'), but her dam handled good to soft so hopefully she'll be OK. I have plenty of respect for both Beyond Reason (whom Charlie Appleby considers is still weak and is potentially a lot better than her narrow win last time might suggest) and Sicilia (who won her maiden nicely and seems well regarded).
Report blackbarn August 18, 2018 10:31 AM BST
Good post James.   Sicilia overpriced with PP at 18/1 can be backed at that price on here (for a fiver!) currently.
Report jamesp August 18, 2018 11:49 AM BST
Sicilia does seem to be massively overpriced at 18/1: surely an error by the odds compilers! Just watched her maiden win again, she won quite impressively and the step up to 7f should suit her.
Report unclepuncle August 18, 2018 3:25 PM BST
Followed the race via the in-play market and as soon as it was clear Tasleya wasn’t winning I cashed out my B365 bet.
Report jamesp August 18, 2018 3:28 PM BST
That wasn't the plan. The performance looked too bad to be true. Back to the drawing board.
Report jamesp August 18, 2018 3:43 PM BST
An easy 3 lengths win for Beyond Reason. English domination of the top juvenile events in France continues. The runner-up was a big outsider (fourth in a Vichy 5f listed event last time), which casts some doubt on the quality of the form. Tasleya was beaten about 6 lengths in sixth and never got into the race, looking as though she was either unwilling or unable to show the same acceleration she showed on debut. Winning time was 4.57s slower than standard (drying ground, probably quite tacky).
Report jamesp August 18, 2018 4:00 PM BST
Just watched the race again. Strange performance by Tasleya: past half way she was cruising towards the back of the field, having raced keenly through the early stages, carrying her head slightly high, but when the tempo picked up 2f out she found nothing, wandering all over the place under pressure, then ran on again once the jockey eased the pressure and the race was all over. Very disappointing. Nothing like the performance she produced on her debut.
Report Figgis August 19, 2018 3:31 PM BST
There's no doubt that Pretty Pollyana has shown the best form so far. Her Newmarket win gave her a clear favourite's chance of taking the Morny, which she did. I have today's win just 1lb lower than Newmarket so she didn't improve again. This form is just about good enough to win a moderate Guineas. If next year's Guineas is as poor as this year she'd win. If it's similar to when Miss France or Blue Bunting won she'd be fighting out the finish. However she'd be no better than placed if it's of the standard won by Winter, Minding or Sky Lantern (who was better than the bare result). Then there's the question of if she'll stay a mile. To me it's not obvious she will. So not for me ante post.
Report jamesp August 25, 2018 2:40 AM BST
An intriguing renewal of the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. Aidan O'Brien runs three fillies (all by Galileo), the pick of which appears to be Zagitova (Ryan Moore), an impressive maiden winner at Cork (the same race that Magical took narrowly before winning last year's Debutante Stakes), following a debut second at Newmarket behind Antonia De Vega (a leading fancy in today's Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood); the placed fillies at Cork (including Bandiuc Eile, who re-opposes) hold Gr.1 entries and the form is probably well above average for the track; she finished full of running and took an age to pull up after the race (was reportedly lame on her right fore afterwards, but has evidently recovered quickly); she's a half-sister to the smart 6-7f performer and freshman sire Garswood but should stay a lot further than him (though speedily bred on the dam's side, she's a full sister to a 10-12f performer); she could be smart. Aidan's two other runners Hermosa, a full sister to Hydrangea (dual Gr.1 winner over 8-12f), and Peach Tree, full sister to 10-12f winner Flattering and half-sister to smart 6f filly Lucky Kristale, both got off the mark at the second attempt, the former having run promisingly behind Peach Tree on debut before winning in workmanlike fashion at Galway; both fillies have shown promise, but a lot more is needed here.

Another O'Brien runner Iridessa (trained by Joseph, ridden by Donnacha) sprang a surprise at Killarney first time out, scoring by 4 lengths from odds-on Cardini (beaten a similar distance in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot) and a couple of previous winners; she's well regarded at home and she should stay middle distances next season. The form of Chocolate Music's Curragh 6f maiden win has worked out nicely, with the placed fillies having both gone on to score by wide margins; she's speedily bred (closely related to useful 6f filly Kassia) but shapes as if she will stay 7f; she's held by Vallambrosa on earlier Fairyhouse form but may be able to reverse placings with that filly (provided she gets the trip). Skitter Scatter, winner of the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes, is a tough and progressive filly and arguably the form pick. Viadera, runner-up in the Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes on just her second start behind Marie's Diamond (ran well in the Gr.2 Richmond Stakes next time), should get 7f (dam won over 10f) and is a very promising filly. Perhaps the most interesting runner is Sheila Lavery's filly Lady Kaya, who put up a remarkable performance in the Loder Fillies Race (over C&D), making all and 10 lengths clear at halfway, with the other runners unable to make any inroads in the final quarter mile - it looked like she got a soft lead and the other jockeys completely misjudged the pace; if that performance can be taken literally she has the makings of a smart filly; she holds Gr.1 entries and is the only filly among the 79 entries for the Dewhurst.

A fascinating and unpredictable race, especially in view of the heavy rain which is forecast to hit the track for several hours on Sunday morning (with lighter rain and a stiff breeze in the afternoon) - conditions could become very testing.
Report jamesp August 25, 2018 3:11 PM BST
A nice performance from the well backed Antonia De Vega in this afternoon's Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, outpaced and under pressure quite a long way out, slightly unbalanced for a couple of strides, but finishing well to win cosily. I think the visual impression flatters her somewhat, as the pair who had made the running (Accordance and Aim Power) seemed to be running out of gas in the final 100 yards and failed to get home. The proximity of 50/1 shot Chynna (OR 78, but unexposed at the trip) in third suggests that the form is quite weak, nowhere near Guineas-winning standard. The winner should have no trouble getting a mile this season and probably 10f next year, and she's clearly a promising filly. The Gr.2 May Hill Stakes and Gr.1 Fillies Mile (or Prix Marcel Boussac) look the obvious next targets. Aidan O'Brien will have been pleased by the result, as his filly Zagitova, who runs tomorrow at the Curragh, was a very promising second to Antonia De Vega at Newmarket before impressively winning her maiden at Cork.
Report unclepuncle September 17, 2018 7:55 PM BST
Well the May Hill and Moyglare have come and gone and not much has changed in the market, with Skitter Scatter, perhaps surprisingly, still available at 16/1 despite winning a Group 3, 2 and 1 in clear cut fashion on her last three starts.

One horse I will keep in my notebook in the hope of winning a good race at a big price is Magnetic Charm who was 4th in the May Hill.
Obviously on that form she hasn’t got hope in hell of winning a Guineas but to my eyes she needs lightning quick ground to be at her best so it wasn’t too bad an effort - she has a very quick action.  Doubt she will get her conditions for the rest of this season so I’ll probably try scalping a few quid on her here and there over the winter at 3 figure prices in the hope we get a dry spring.Crazy

If she were mine I’d look at the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf  but being owned by the Queen I doubt that will happen.
Report jamesp September 17, 2018 11:16 PM BST
With Aidan O'Brien not appearing to have a star juvenile filly this season, it seems a great opportunity to get some value in the Guineas market, but I must admit I'm struggling to find a filly worth backing for the race.

It's hard to know what to make of the Moyglare Stud Stakes form. The winner Skitter Scatter can do no more than beat the fillies that she races against, but I'm not sure that she's really progressing that much: both Lady Kaya and Hermosa finished closer to her this time than they had managed to do in the Debutante Stakes previously, and several of the runners (notably Beyond Reason and Just Wonderful) ran well below expectations. The winning time (0.79s slower than the National Stakes) suggests that the form is solid but nothing special for the grade and the winner will need to improve a few more pounds to win a Guineas. On the plus side, trainer Patrick Prendergast said that his filly has just started growing and is optimistic that she can progress and develop into a Guineas filly. If she were trained by Aidan O'Brien she would be considerably shorter than the 16/1 still on offer for the Guineas (was 20/1 straight after the Moyglare). If nothing else emerges in the next few weeks, maybe she'll be the one.

The May Hill Stakes winner Fleeting looks a nice staying type for next season (the dam won over 14f and is a grand-daughter of smart 12f winner Animatrice), but she holds no big-race entries and the form of the Doncaster race looks very shaky (the runner-up came from winning a nursery off a mark of 83, the third had won a weak novice event at Kempton).

The Prestige Stakes form of Antonia De Vega took a few knocks at the Doncaster St Leger meeting where runner-up Accordance finished unplaced in the May Hill (beaten 6½ lengths), the third Chynna finished unplaced in a Listed race and the fourth Aim Power was unplaced in a sales race (receiving weight, finished behind horses officially rated 87, 85 and 83). Antonia De Vega looks a nice filly in the making, but the Goodwood form looks decidedly weak.

Rocques maintained her unbeaten record when smoothly taking the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp (a traditional prep race for the Prix Marcel Boussac). The form, with only a couple of lengths covering the first five, probably doesn't amount to much. The winner should stay middle distances next season (the dam won over 11f and is from the family of Park Hill winner Casey).
Report deepingfox September 18, 2018 3:00 PM BST
FLEETING I would say is a very good price at 33/1 gave her breeding.

The 1000 Guineas, is so tricky, no standout for me at the moment, so maybe If AOB doesn't find a super filly, he may let FLEETING take her chance in the 1000 as well, as he often preps Oaks fillies in the 1000 Guineas.
Report lewisham ranger September 20, 2018 5:12 PM BST
impressive debut from hidden message today at yarmouth, showed a tidy turn of foot. entered in the rockfel i believe.
Report deepingfox September 20, 2018 10:49 PM BST
I have to agree Lewisham, HIDDEN MESSAGE looked extremely useful on debut, and Haggas doesnt have them hardened for debut.
Having viewed the dam's races she was a similar quality and won the Radley Stakes (her granddam won the race too) at Newbury next, before running well in Attraction's 1000 Guineas.
It would be no surprise to seen her run  in the Radley next, and if she won that well could vault up the 1000 Guineas betting.
Report impossible123 September 21, 2018 10:47 AM BST
The forgotten filly Goddess who'd not been seen since flopping against Skitter Scatter when odds-on on 26th July at the beginning of the bug crisis at Ballydoyle; Pretty Pollyanna in the Cheveley Park next saturday could be another useful pointer for next year's 1000G Classic.
Report deepingfox September 21, 2018 8:41 PM BST
Agreed Imp, I really hope we see a fit and firing GODDESS in the next month.
Report Figgis September 29, 2018 2:05 PM BST
Pretty Pollyanna was a good bet last time and she's the one to beat again today in the Cheveley Park. If I had confidence in her running to form she'd be a great price. But in France she only repeated her Newmarket effort so the improvement looks to have plateaued, and she was pushed all the way to the line so that couldn't have been an easy race. So even though I reckon her form would see her win I will have to leave her because of doubts about her running her race. It looks wide open if she's not on song.
Report lewisham ranger September 29, 2018 2:10 PM BST
probably one of the o'brien fillies will win, they seem to win everything else Crazy
Report lewisham ranger September 29, 2018 2:11 PM BST
I'm on pollyanna though. which is drifting
Report lewisham ranger September 29, 2018 4:33 PM BST
surprising noone ever, o'brien won

kodiac filly as well who has been the completely dominant sire this year for two year olds in terms of number of winners.
Report unclepuncle September 29, 2018 4:35 PM BST
16/1 the field for the Guineas. Complete minefield,
Report deepingfox September 30, 2018 12:40 AM BST
Agreed on it being a minefield Uncle, and certainly nothing to be scared of, at the top of the market.

I have had a couple of bets on 50/1 outsiders who are extremely well-bred for 8f classics, and have recently shown a lot of promise when winning their maidens on debut.

HIDDEN MESSAGE (W Haggas)
FROSTY (A O'Brien)

Both finished their races off really well, and could run in black-type races this next month, which would tell me whether I'm blown out with the bets, or have something to follow into a trial race next season.

HIDDEN MESSAGE could well run in the Radley Stakes as Newbury at the end of October. It's over 7f, and her dam Secret Charm won it, beating Hathrah at the end of her juvenile season.
Both fillies went on to run close up in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas the following spring (5th and 3rd respectively behind Attraction).

FROSTY already on debut has a RPR above that which her sibling WINTER had on her 3 juvenile starts. She has a Fillies Mile entry, but could more likely take in a Listed or Group 3 race, and leave AOBs hardened group-raced fillies to tackle that Group 1 race.
Report lewisham ranger September 30, 2018 9:00 AM BST
couple of very promising fillies made their debuts in the backend maidens at newmarket last night, I was impressed with the way Maqsab travelled through the race, and roger varian also had a nice filly in qabala.
Report Mystic Wind September 30, 2018 1:57 PM BST
14/1 (16/1 in a place) about an APOB-trained filly who has won the Lowther & Cheveley Park seems too big to me. OK, she's got plenty of speed and on breeding you wouldn't be certain of her getting a mile, but she toughed it out well yesterday and post-race comments by the trainer suggest she'll be given the chance to prove her stamina in the Guineas. She certainly has the size & scope to progress and is a lovely looking filly - I seem to remember something about her being twice as expensive as any other off-spring of the sire.

They did finish in a bit of a heap yesterday, which slightly tempers enthusiasm, but on the flip side the time compared pretty well with the Middle Park. At the price, I'll take a chance.

0.5pt Fairyland @ 14/1
Report jamesp October 3, 2018 4:36 PM BST
12 fillies remain in Sunday's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. Final declarations are on Friday.
Pink Dogwood (AP O'Brien); Nova Sol (M Delcher Sanchez); Lily's Candle (F Vermeulen); Rocques (F Chappet); Lagrandecatherine (A Marcialis); Beyond Reason (C Appleby); Ceratonia (C Appleby); Dubai Beauty (S Bin Suroor); Magnetic Charm (WJ Haggas); Hermosa (AP O'Brien); Zagitova (AP O'Brien); Matematica (C Laffon-Parias)

It's a fairly uninspiring bunch: a number of these have been beaten in Group races. The unbeaten Rocques gets the nod, but she's unlikely to develop into a Guineas filly and should do better over middle distances next year.
Report jamesp October 5, 2018 1:53 PM BST
Just eight runners in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday. Richard Hannon has supplemented his May Hill Stakes runner-up Star Terms and Aidan O'Brien has declared only one of his entries, the Gowran maiden winner Pink Dogwood (sister to Irish Derby winner Latrobe). The other six runners are Lily's Candle (F Vermeulen); Rocques (F Chappet); Lagrandecatherine (A Marcialis); Ceratonia (C Appleby); Dubai Beauty (S Bin Suroor); Matematica (C Laffon-Parias).
Report impossible123 October 5, 2018 2:13 PM BST
I must admit Pink Dogwood an unknown to me; I'd be surprised if Pink Dogwood is more highly regarded than either Hermosa or Just Wonderful.

Hermosa is being saved for The Fillies Mile at Newmarket on Champion Day.
Report bosra shame October 10, 2018 9:38 PM BST
Hermosa is favourite for the Fillies Mile on Friday yet not one bookmaker is quoting her in the lists for the Guineas ante post!
Report deepingfox October 11, 2018 4:12 AM BST
I have backed both FROSTY and HIDDEN MESSAGE at 50/1 after their respective debut wins, and they clash on Friday in the Group 3 7F Oh So Sharp Stakes.
Hopefully both Ante Post betting slips won't get too burned, but it may be too much to ask for an impressive 1-2 from them and both shortening for the classic next May!
Report impossible123 October 11, 2018 10:44 AM BST
If one thought the market for The 1000G is mindbogg ling that Hermosa, the fav for The Fillies Mile, was not even quoted The Oaks just as baffling. Maybe the traders at the bookies are either still in bed or totally perplexed or just too young or sufficiently knowledgeable to price up at this juncture.
Report johnnyrant October 11, 2018 7:02 PM BST
Hidden Message wearing a hood on her 2nd start I find disconcerting. Thought she was very impressive at Yarmouth so don't understand why Haggas is already reaching for headgear.
Report deepingfox October 12, 2018 10:00 AM BST
Agreed on HIDDEN RESERVE moving to a hood, Johnny. Couldn’t see why from her debut, but the trainer has seen enough at home, to think that on a big race day, so early in her career, leads to the need of a hood.
Report deepingfox October 12, 2018 10:17 PM BST
Complete blowout from once rac3d Maiden winners HIDDEN MESSAGE and FROSY, the latter looking extremely green.
Managed to use the right firm for my 50/1 1000 Guineas bets, so exited them on Cash Out without losing any money.
The classic market for fillies over a mile is very cloudy, could still be worth considering maiden winners (like a Winter) that go well in trial race in the spring.
Report impossible123 October 13, 2018 12:23 PM BST
Hermosa is still not quoted for this race despite entered for the Irish equivalent, and trainer stated she'd be trained for the Classics; bookies with privileged info?
Report impossible123 October 28, 2018 4:23 PM GMT
Hermosa is 2nd again in the Criterium International against the colts over 7f at Chantilly today. My question is why a drop in distance from 8f in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket earlier when the filly clearly needed further than 8f?
Report Howellsy October 28, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
Weak race and chance to win a group 1.
Report Mystic Wind March 16, 2019 9:32 AM GMT
Of the favourites I much prefer Fairyland for this and have backed her accordingly.

However, another filly I followed closely as a 2yo is David Elsworth's Dandhu. Pretty sure I read Elsie was training her very much with her 3yo career in mind and taking things gently as a 2yo. After fluffing the start on her debut, she wound up winning a conditions race at Kempton before running on nicely behind Just Wonderful in the Rockfel. She looks progressive.

0.5 pt Fairyland @ 14/1
0.5 pt Dandhu @ 50/1
Report impossible123 March 19, 2019 8:42 PM GMT
The bush telegraph is indicating Goddess could be doubtful.
Report impossible123 March 22, 2019 7:28 PM GMT
Good soundbite from O'Brien regards Fairyland: Fairyland could go here with or without a prep race. But, no news for Just Wonderful though. The question is will she be sufficiently forward for this? She'd had a long season last time - she ran in American in November.
Report li April 6, 2019 9:27 PM BST
Couldn't fail to be impressed by Lady Kaya at Leopardstown today and have thrown a few sheckels in her direction
Report penzance April 10, 2019 5:02 PM BST
Pretty Pollyanna,after saying she'll run in
a trial,she is now bypassing them and might
not run in the Guineas.
Thought they might see if she was a miler,at least.
Report Mystic Wind April 13, 2019 4:52 PM BST
That was an encouraging run from Dandhu today, I thought Mosse gave her quite a considerate ride and didn't want to throw everything at her. Sure, she'll need to improve on that to be competitive in the Guineas but there's every chance she will, she's certainly progressive.
Report impossible123 April 14, 2019 9:12 PM BST
The win of Dandhu paid a huge compliment to Just Wonderful who beat her in the Rockfel; Just Wonderful is going straight to the 1000G, according to AOB.
Report Figgis April 16, 2019 3:36 PM BST
Of all the fillies that showed form over further than 6f last year Main Edition was narrowly my top rated. No opinion on if she'll train on or not but just interested to see how she performs today.
Report Charlton2005 April 16, 2019 4:18 PM BST
lewisham ranger
30 Sep 18 09:00
Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 4,742 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
couple of very promising fillies made their debuts in the backend maidens at newmarket last night, I was impressed with the way Maqsab travelled through the race, and roger varian also had a nice filly in qabala.


good shout LR
Report Figgis April 16, 2019 4:43 PM BST
Decent performance from the winner. I'd say the form is definitely good enough to be Guineas placed but would be a bit disappointing if that was good enough to win. I suppose there will be arguments that it was first time up this year and only her second lifetime start so she's bound to improve, etc, but she looked very ready today. Judging by the money down connections were in no doubt she was fit, so personally I won't be expecting immediate improvement.
Report impossible123 April 16, 2019 5:02 PM BST
It was an E=eye-catching performance by Qabala,...the question is what did she beat? 5/1 for this? The majority of the heavyweights are not out yet.
Report jamesp April 16, 2019 9:01 PM BST
Great shout LR (to mention Qabala on this thread straight after her maiden win in September)!
Yes, it was a striking performance today. Clearly a smart filly, and (as Figgis says) definitely good enough to be placed in a Guineas, as the placed fillies today are solid Group 3 performers on last season's form and she beat them comfortably. The winning trainer was concerned beforehand that the filly hadn't quite come in her coat and reckons that she will improve a fair bit for today's outing. I have no doubt she will get a mile and she did well to come from a little way back off a moderate pace (winning time was quite slow). Further improvement is clearly needed, and I'm a little surprised to see she's now 5/1 favourite for the Guineas. Skitter Scatter (now with John Oxx, with whom Patrick Prendergast has gone into partnership) has the best overall form, has been consistently underrated, and would surely be favourite if trained by AOB. Kevin Ryan's East would be an interesting contender at a bigger price, but it's not known at this stage whether she will go to Newmarket or to the French Guineas.
Report frankie-says-go April 26, 2019 10:16 PM BST
east will run in france
Report frankie-says-go April 28, 2019 1:10 AM BST
keep taking 20/1 chaps
Report jamesp April 29, 2019 3:40 PM BST
East was a notable absentee at today's forfeit stage. 16 fillies remain: Angel's Hideaway (John Gosden), Antonia De Vega (Ralph Beckett), Dandhu (David Elsworth), Fairyland (A P O'Brien), Fleeting (A P O'Brien), Garrel Glen (Mark Tompkins), Hermosa (A P O'Brien), Iconic Choice (Tom Dascombe), Iridessa (Joseph O'Brien), Just Wonderful (A P O'Brien), Lady Kaya (Sheila Lavery), Look Around (Andrew Balding), Mot Juste (Roger Varian), Qabala (Roger Varian), Skitter Scatter (John Oxx), Star Terms (Richard Hannon)

John Oxx is reportedly very happy with Skitter Scatter, who should get her favoured fast ground. I should have backed her over the winter at 14/1 but didn't, and won't get involved now. I'm not terribly excited about the Newbury form of Dandhu, Iconic Choice and Star Terms, with just a length covering them at the line. Iridessa would have a chance if reproducing her Fillies' Mile form, but is well held on earlier running behind Skitter Scatter. Qabala looks a smart prospect and is respected, she should have no trouble getting the mile. I'm not convinced that any of Aidan O'Brien's entries are really top class and none has had a prep run (which has been a negative for Aidan's runners in this race over the years): I have my doubts about Fairyland getting a mile, while Just Wonderful (who looked very good in the Rockfel but ran poorly in the Moyglare behind Skitter Scatter) may want further. Lady Kaya was twice beaten by Skitter Scatter last season and there's no particular reason to think she can reverse the form.
Report FELTFAIR April 29, 2019 4:14 PM BST
I would definitely get involved with Skitter Scatter.
Report FELTFAIR April 29, 2019 4:14 PM BST
I would definitely get involved with Skitter Scatter.
Report FELTFAIR April 29, 2019 4:15 PM BST
Involved twice even.
Report Figgis April 29, 2019 4:29 PM BST
Lady Kaya was twice beaten by Skitter Scatter last season and there's no particular reason to think she can reverse the form

James, don't you think her latest win was an improvement on what she showed last year?
Report jamesp April 29, 2019 9:34 PM BST
Well, the official handicapper seems to have decided to leave her rating unchanged on 110 following that Leopardstown reappearance win. It's hard to say. Zagitova, whose form last year ties in with Lady Kaya and Skitter Scatter, may not be a terribly good guide to the level of that Leopardstown form: she failed to progress last season, would not have been fully wound up for her first run of the season, and may not have been ideally suited by the soft ground. Similarly, it's hard to imagine that Iridessa, who goes so well on good or faster ground, was suited by the soft ground or the drop back from a mile to 7f. It's possible that all the O'Brien fillies were quite tenderly handled and may have needed the run more than the well-backed winner. The trainer reports that her filly came out that race really well and she's very pleased with her. She's clearly a speedy filly and last season she travelled really well through her races but sometimes struggled to last home over 7f. I'm not sure that the extra furlong of the Guineas will necessarily be to her advantage. We'll find out on Sunday. I certainly wouldn't want to rule her out.
Report Figgis April 29, 2019 9:45 PM BST
I have her improving 8lbs from last year and make her level with Qabala. Purely on figures I have Just Wonderful slight top but apart from that Rockfel win the rest of her form looks moderate. I have Fairyland next but as you have mentioned it's debatable if she'll stay and her well being has to be taken on trust. Qabal and Lady Kaya next and to my eyes LK had the easier race. It's not a race where I can be confident about anything but I'm having a few quid each way about her. Can't say for sure if she'll repeat that last effort but I think the form has been very underrated and it's good enough for at least a place in what could be a moderate renewal.
Report sintonian April 30, 2019 10:39 AM BST
There is a strange situation with Hermosa. Despite being placed in multiple Group 1s, including at Newmarket, there is only 1 bookmaker quoting her for the Guineas and it's been the same for the last week. Why would this be?

Qabala looked very good in the Nell Gwyn but it's easy to see her bouncing after that win. It's not like it's uncommon in these trials. Kingman was similarly impressive.

Just Wonderful seems a bit of an enigma. On a going day she is probably very good but is only rated 107. What strikes me about her most is her breeding tbh. Her dam Wading hacked up in the Rockfell too and went single figures for the Guineas after but we never saw her again. The dame side is very speedy so i'd not be surprised to Just Wonderful be 100% for this race as they probably feel they have unfinished business with the Wading story. Interestingly, AOB said in his stable tour back in March that she is nicely forward, hence indicating she might not need a prep.

At the prices I have backed Mot Juste. She needs to improve a fair chunk off 103 but she stuck at it nicely in the Nell Gwyn and was beginning to pull away from the rest again at the line. The market suggested strongly before the race she would improve plenty, but also she is bred to improve for the extra furlong too, dam was a Group 2 winner over 1m4f. The sire has produced some good horse but his best ones have been when crossed with a Saddlers Wells mare like Mot Juste is. Also, Roger Varian must be a fan of the sire as he trained Cursory Glance who we all know was a recent favourite for the Guineas after winning the Moyglare, but injury struck.

Mot Juste eachway at 16/1, win saver on Just Wonderful 8/1.
Report penzance April 30, 2019 3:48 PM BST
personally think Iridessa will go very close
in this and the Oaks.Her form with Hermosa and
Pretty Pollyanna is the best on offer,showed
she's trained on with her reappearance run.
   GL ALL
Report impossible123 April 30, 2019 10:54 PM BST
Qabala was visually impressive in the Nell Gwyn, but 11/4 fav after beating Mot Juste? Her winning time was over 3s above standard on good to firm ground.

I think this will concern Just Wonderful, Skitter Scatter and Qabala, but in what order?
Report Millerracing67 May 1, 2019 12:54 PM BST
Had a small interest on Skitter Scatter 8.0
The vibes are Gd, she looked classy at 2yo, & the weather looks set for g/f.
Report Millerracing67 May 1, 2019 3:08 PM BST
& now a little more at 8.6 :-)
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2019 6:49 PM BST
have had a few quid on fleeting and hermosa at around 20s and 33s on here both have decent form  well bred and the trip should be no problem ,both need to find  a bit  but  not a lot and could  have progressed  over the winter, the stable mob handed so they may not be sure of the pecking order and a few of the yards more fancied ones not guaranteed to stay !  and the prices seem a bit big to me . good luck
Report Schraderbrau May 4, 2019 7:39 PM BST
I'm concerned about any more rain that could linger this evening. I know its been raining heavy enough Essex way so could possibly reach HQ. I like Qabala and I'm not surprised Roger Varian has been quietly downplaying her chances (before the Nell Gwyn as well) as that says to me they really like this one enough to  keep schtum. Heavily punted as well for that race, a few in the know got their $$$ on.
Of course it is actually just another race where improvement can come from absolutely anywhere but I gotta put my faith in something.
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2019 7:46 PM BST
good luck schrader, had plenty of showers on the south coast where i am at the moment ,just showers for 5 mins or so , may be a poster  in suffolk could update as to  the weather situation  in newmarket area
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2019 8:52 PM BST
Now dry in Newmarket so expect today`s "good" ground to be replicated tomorrow.
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2019 9:00 PM BST
cheers felt keep us updated if it changes thanks again
Report FELTFAIR May 5, 2019 9:28 AM BST
Now dry and sunny this morning and set fair after a bit more rain last night, still puddles about. Can`t imagine the ground being any better than "good" and the winner will need to get the mile well as with yesterday`s 2000G.

I am not a fan of backing fillies from  2 to 3 years old but will have a small each way interest in Skitter Scatter and Just Wonderful.
Report unclepuncle May 5, 2019 9:39 AM BST
Probably best to keep it simple and just back Coolmore.Plain

Think Just Wonderful is a really good bet here at 6/1. While inconsistent last season when she was good she was very impressive to my eyes. Course form to boot and distance should be no problem. Only the jockey is a possible negative.Wink
Think Fleeting and Hermosa are the main dangers so have had savers at juicy prices on them.

They will probably win it with Fairyland now but she has to be a doubtful stayer doesn't she?
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 3:22 PM BST
Still no strong opinion on this apart from thinking the fav is too short. Just Wonderful and Fairyland have the best pieces of form but I'm not keen to back them. Just sticking with the small bet on Lady Kaya.
Report Charlton2005 May 5, 2019 3:30 PM BST
Backed Just Wonderful. Unlikely that even moore cannot c@ck this one up. Draw counts for 5 lengths. Should be 2/1 at best. gl all
Report FOYLESWAR May 5, 2019 3:43 PM BST
ahem! get in !
Report Charlton2005 May 5, 2019 3:44 PM BST
guess that's why these guys are jockeys and not scientists
Report FOYLESWAR May 5, 2019 4:00 PM BST
well done uncle !
Report jamesp May 5, 2019 4:05 PM BST
Well done FOYLESWAR and other backers of the winner. Figgis, you were absolutely right about Lady Kaya having improved significantly: once again she travelled very well through the race but weakened in the closing stages (stayed the mile reasonably well, but beaten by a filly with stronger stamina). Skitter Scatter very disappointing on her seasonal debut and possibly hasn't trained on. Qabala took a bump at a crucial stage of the race and is clearly a smart filly. It looked a good renewal, solid form but not outstanding.
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 4:19 PM BST
James, yes she ran as well as I'd hoped and got the place money. Just found one too good as feared, although I wouldn't have expected it to be Hermosa. I backed her in the Fillies Mile last year when beaten by O'Brien Jr's horse. It's like betting against the mafia Wink. I have the race a moderate level, as suspected beforehand, and I can see these fillies taking turns to beat each other in future.
Report unclepuncle May 5, 2019 5:26 PM BST
Another funny old race with the front two never seeing another horse. Clearly the winner will be well suited by a step up in trip, while the second probably wants to drop back.

I think Qabala and Just Wonderful are the two to take out of it for the forthcoming mile events. 13/2 and 12/1 for the Coronation looks a decent dutch to me.
As it turned out Moore wasn't well drawn in 15 but as usual these days he was far too late to realise.

I wonder if they are deliberately putting Moore on the wrong one just to get a better price on the one they do fancy? Hermosa was well backed this morning - I got 29 early this morning and she was in to around 15 at lunchtime when I last looked.
Report FOYLESWAR May 5, 2019 5:33 PM BST
that was my thinking uncle  "the lads are rich but as with all wealthy people its never enough  they want more and more " yesterday chapman saying tabor must have gone in on ten sovs ,today o,brien comes out with yeah we knew ten sovs wouldnt stay or words to that effect . hermosa backed off the boards today .
Report impossible123 May 5, 2019 5:42 PM BST
Well done backers of Hermosa. I could not back her for this race, only the Oaks at 25/1 here. And, I'm hoping she goes to Epsom.

Hermosa set the fractions, and won well. Had she improved significantly from last season? She was put in her place on several occasions over 7f and over a mile; AOB in his post race interview commented Hermosa grew a lot over the winter; Murtagh indicated Hermosa looked the fittest of the Coolmore contingent pre-race.
Report sintonian May 5, 2019 8:35 PM BST
sintonian 30 Apr 19 10:39 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 27,777 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
There is a strange situation with Hermosa. Despite being placed in multiple Group 1s, including at Newmarket, there is only 1 bookmaker quoting her for the Guineas and it's been the same for the last week. Why would this be?


Can't recall a situation like this ever before.

Surprised Hermosa is 7/1 for the Oaks too.

Uncle, I would agree with you about Qab and JW. Both come out of the race in a positive light. But would just about them in a stongly run mile at at track like the Curragh so Ascot's bend would seemingly be a good fit.
Report jamesp May 6, 2019 10:53 AM BST
Hermosa was also entered in yesterday's Pretty Polly Stakes, so I guess bookmakers were thinking she was more likely to turn up in that race (until she was taken out at the 48 hour decs). Or perhaps connections wanted to give that impression... Mischief
Report impossible123 May 6, 2019 10:08 PM BST
Latest from AOB is that Hermosa may not even run in the Oaks; she could be doubling-up in the Irish 1000G.
Report FELTFAIR May 7, 2019 11:11 AM BST
Hermosa beaten 3 1/2L by Skitter Scatter last year. Reversed by about 24L on Saturday and that `s why I don`t trust fillies from 2 to 3 years old. Must be the hormones.
Report jamesp May 10, 2019 1:04 PM BST
Hermosa was beaten on all four occasions she competed at Gr.1 and Gr.2 level last season, including twice by Skitter Scatter (as alluded to by FELTFAIR) and also by Iridessa (in the Fillies' Mile). She was a solid and consistent performer at just below Guineas class last season (she was given a Racing Post Rating of 110 for each of her last three starts, including when runner-up in two Gr.1 races), but it was hard to pick her out as a likely Guineas winner on the basis of her two-year-old form, and her Guineas participation looked like a bit of an afterthought (hence her 25/1 price on the morning of the race). But we should take a close look at her breeding and pedigree: she's by Galileo (and therefore likely to progress and improve from two to three), her dam trained on from two to three (winning a Gr.2 sprint at three), her full sister Hydrangea (who had a similar juvenile campaign to Hermosa, finishing runner-up in a couple of autumn Gr.1 races) trained on really well from two to three (winning a couple of Gr.1 races, RPR 118 and 119), her full brother The United States had training problems but O'Brien still managed to get a Gr.3 win out of him at three (he later won Gr.1 and Gr.2 races in Australia), and her half-sister Fire Lily (who finished runner-up in a couple of Gr.1 races at two) likewise trained on well (finishing a close second to subsequent Guineas winner on reappearance and later won a couple of Gr.3 races). If we lost sight of Hermosa, concluding that she had had her limitations exposed by better fillies last season, it's because we took insufficient notice of her pedigree and the likelihood that she would train on well and improve from two to three.
Report jamesp May 10, 2019 1:08 PM BST
PS: We can ignore Skitter Scatter's performance in the Guineas, as she suffered a muscle tear at Newmarket and will be out of action for a while.
Report impossible123 May 10, 2019 4:33 PM BST
To be honest I'd expected Hermosa to capitulate when she was joined, but she powered on again. If she goes to the Oaks (Pink Dogwood is the obstacle), and wins she'd draw a comparison with Minding, I believe; they shared something similar at Ballydoyle at the outset ie pecking order. For instance, both fillies were only 3rd best eg Hermosa behind Just Wonderful and Fairyland; Minding behind Ballydoyle and Alice Springs.
Report unclepuncle May 17, 2019 7:47 PM BST
unclepuncle
17 Sep 18 19:55

One horse I will keep in my notebook in the hope of winning a good race at a big price is Magnetic Charm who was 4th in the May Hill.
Obviously on that form she hasn’t got hope in hell of winning a Guineas but to my eyes she needs lightning quick ground to be at her best so it wasn’t too bad an effort - she has a very quick action.


Good things come to those who wait. GrinGrin

Even had a little on at 55/1 for the Coronation Stakes last night.Excited
Report impossible123 May 19, 2019 7:14 PM BST
Hermosa is 13/8 fav with Lady Kaya and Just Wonderful at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively; Skitter Scatter is 8/1, but I thought the filly sustained an injury during the English 1000G, and will be out for a while.
Report unclepuncle May 20, 2019 9:15 AM BST
Just Wonderful looks an e/w bet to nothing - if she runs.
Report impossible123 May 21, 2019 6:19 PM BST
Qabala has been supplemented, but Lady Kaya and Skitter Scatter scratched - the last mentioned rightly so given her injury sustained at Newmarket; Hermosa (5/2), Qabala (11/4) and Just Wonderful (6/1).
Report li June 12, 2019 11:34 AM BST
Shame about the sudden demise of Lady Kaya who ran a stormer. She had a touch of class for her smaller stable and I was looking forward to seeing how she would fare at Ascot and beyond. Commiserations to her connections.
Report impossible123 June 12, 2019 5:46 PM BST
Incredibly sad and tragic for the horse and connections. A promising horse losing her life on the gallops.

I'd like to see Hermosa exert her superiority in the Coronation Stakes one more time before taking on the boys later in the season perhaps; Hermosa and Japan (if he shows up for the King Edward VII) are two bankers at Royal Ascot for me.
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