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jamesp
30 Jul 18 16:57
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
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Having taken a two-year break from ante-post betting on the 1,000 Guineas, during which time the race has been won by a couple of fillies that no one could have seriously fancied on their two-year-old form (Winter and Billesdon Brook), I've decided to dip a toe in the water for next year's race.

The Prix de Lisieux, a 6f maiden for unraced fillies at Deauville, has been won by some smart fillies over the years, notably the great Miesque (1986), Ravinella (1987) and Miesque's multiple Gr.1-winning daughter East Of The Moon (1993). Since the race was re-established in the racing programme in 2007, after a gap of a few years, it hasn't produced any further Gr.1 winners, though several fillies have been Gr.1-placed: Conference Call (2007) and Polydream (2017) were both placed 2nd in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, and What A Name (3rd in 2012) was runner-up in the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. It has also produced a number of dual- and multiple-Gr.3 winners in recent years such as Top Toss, Soneva, Mashoora, What A Name, Sasparella and Polydream.

I've no doubt that this year's winner Tasleya, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget for Sheikh Hamdan, will be well up to winning in pattern company and could well turn out to be a Gr.1 performer. Her dam Mashoora, who won this very maiden race for the same connections in 2011, later won the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence and was sent off 13-2 for the 1000 Guineas but didn't run her race and finished down the field (later won the Gr.3 Prix de la Porte Maillot and finished 3rd in the Gr.1 Prix Rothschild).

Tasleya was not well drawn (on the outside) for her debut but she made a big impression, coming from last place, smoothly making up ground, accelerating into the lead and quickly taking a few lengths out of the field to win easily by 3½ lengths. The trainer said afterwards (my translation): 'She won really nicely. It would appear she's a filly with a future. I was hoping she would win on her debut, but I didn't think she would win so easily.'

This nice scopey daughter of Frankel will surely make her mark in pattern company before too long. If she were trained by Aidan O'Brien she would probably be around 14-1 for the Guineas, but 33-1 seemed a reasonable price and that's my initial bet for next year's race.

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Replies: 111
By:
blackbarn
When: 30 Jul 18 17:21
James - There were good words about this filly from connections. It was a nice performance, despite the draw and being a bit green. I was very surprised to get 4/1 on hereHappyHappy

To pre-empt the aftertiming accusations - here's my post from last Thursday on the Frankel breeding thread.

blackbarn 26 Jul 18 15:46 - Tasleya - a very nice (apparently) Hamdan/Rouget 2yo filly.  Due to run on Sunday at Deauville in a race for unraced fillies.  Nice pedigree, out of Mashoora - a Group winner and G1/2 placed.  The dam won THIS race in a canter in 2011.
By:
blackbarn
When: 30 Jul 18 17:27
Here is a link to the race for those who did not see it.

https://www.racingandsports.tv/prix-de-lisieux-tasleya-deauville-29-07-18-v-28QJ
By:
unclepuncle
When: 30 Jul 18 20:52
Definitely a nice prospect but being trained by Rouget it is probably at best 50/50 to come over to Newmarket so effectively you are getting 16/1 imho.
By:
blackbarn
When: 30 Jul 18 21:18
Uncle - Hamdan makes the decisions, and if the horse is anything like good enough, he won't satisfied with the Pouliches. Mind you he still has a couple of nice fillies trained here to come out yet.
By:
bosra shame
When: 02 Aug 18 19:22
Where did you get the 33's James - did you have to phone around as she is not quoted on Oddschecker?
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Aug 18 16:51
Where did you get the 33's James - did you have to phone around as she is not quoted on Oddschecker?
I've more or less given up with telephone and online betting (because of the limits placed on my accounts), so made enquiries in the High Street and got 33s from the first shop I tried (the one with the red livery). Might have got 40s by shopping around, but it wasn't worth the hassle.
Tasleya has been given an entry for the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados later this month. That would seem to be the logical next step. Possible opponents include previous Deauville Gr.3 winners Comedy and Beyond Reason.
By:
blackbarn
When: 03 Aug 18 18:21
James - agree re Calvados for probable next run.  Shadwell sponsored isn't it?
By:
blackbarn
When: 03 Aug 18 18:25
Mean't to add, re the Calvados that the Brits seem keen to win this too, given the entries. Not sure who will turn up but might be some good parallel form guides
By:
bosra shame
When: 03 Aug 18 22:50
I have managed to get Tasleya introduced by 365 at 40/1 opening show if anyone’s fancies availing themselves
By:
deepingfox
When: 03 Aug 18 23:13
Well done Bosra, I've taken the odds.
Well done Blackbarm for the video link too, and
Well done Jamesp for spotting this one.
I love the breeding, I can recall Mashoora's 1000 Guineas trial win in the Prix Imprudence, very impressive.
This filly (as are many others, of course) is bred to be a mile classic contender, and her debut win was extremely taking.
Defo step up to a group race next, and if all goes well should be in the mix for Arc weekends Group 1's,
By:
blackbarn
When: 04 Aug 18 07:23
Thanks deeping.   I'd rather have a well done for spotting it before it ranCool
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Aug 18 13:28
Had a pony on at 40/1.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 04 Aug 18 14:19
She looks a very nice filly, you can certainly tell she's a Frankel offspring.
By:
jamesp
When: 05 Aug 18 15:12
Since the [Prix de Lisieux] was re-established in the racing programme in 2007, after a gap of a few years, it hasn't produced any further Gr.1 winners [...]
Update: last year's Prix de Lisieux winner Polydream has just won the Gr.1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville this afternoon. Another top-class filly to have won that maiden race as a juvenile.
By:
blackbarn
When: 14 Aug 18 10:20
Tasleya declared for the Shadwell Calvados at Deauville on Saturday. English entries are Comedy (Karl Burke) and Beyond Reason (Charlie Appleby).  Should be a decent contest.
By:
deepingfox
When: 15 Aug 18 00:00
TASLEYA running in the Prix Calvados means she is following in her mother's footsteps (Mashoora) in both her first 2 starts.

Mashoora found Elusive Kate too good in the Calvados, which was no disgrace as that filly won the Gp 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on her next start.

Here's hoping TASLEYA goes one better than her mother at the weekend, then she may take the Boussac route herself.
By:
deepingfox
When: 18 Aug 18 04:51
Prix Calvados at Deauville today has an overnight market with Paddy Power/Betfair of TASLEYA 5/4 fav, Beyond Reason 7/4, Byron Bay 9/2, 11/1 bar. 7 runners.
By:
blackbarn
When: 18 Aug 18 08:06
Thanks deeping.  Her task has been made easier by the absence of Comedy, but Beyond Reason will provide a decent test.
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Aug 18 09:07
Tasleya obviously has to win today if she's going to develop into a Guineas filly: defeat would put a severe dent in her ambitions. I'm slightly worried about the soft ground (it was good ground when she won impressively on debut, though the official description was 'good to soft'), but her dam handled good to soft so hopefully she'll be OK. I have plenty of respect for both Beyond Reason (whom Charlie Appleby considers is still weak and is potentially a lot better than her narrow win last time might suggest) and Sicilia (who won her maiden nicely and seems well regarded).
By:
blackbarn
When: 18 Aug 18 09:31
Good post James.   Sicilia overpriced with PP at 18/1 can be backed at that price on here (for a fiver!) currently.
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Aug 18 10:49
Sicilia does seem to be massively overpriced at 18/1: surely an error by the odds compilers! Just watched her maiden win again, she won quite impressively and the step up to 7f should suit her.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Aug 18 14:25
Followed the race via the in-play market and as soon as it was clear Tasleya wasn’t winning I cashed out my B365 bet.
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Aug 18 14:28
That wasn't the plan. The performance looked too bad to be true. Back to the drawing board.
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Aug 18 14:43
An easy 3 lengths win for Beyond Reason. English domination of the top juvenile events in France continues. The runner-up was a big outsider (fourth in a Vichy 5f listed event last time), which casts some doubt on the quality of the form. Tasleya was beaten about 6 lengths in sixth and never got into the race, looking as though she was either unwilling or unable to show the same acceleration she showed on debut. Winning time was 4.57s slower than standard (drying ground, probably quite tacky).
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Aug 18 15:00
Just watched the race again. Strange performance by Tasleya: past half way she was cruising towards the back of the field, having raced keenly through the early stages, carrying her head slightly high, but when the tempo picked up 2f out she found nothing, wandering all over the place under pressure, then ran on again once the jockey eased the pressure and the race was all over. Very disappointing. Nothing like the performance she produced on her debut.
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Aug 18 14:31
There's no doubt that Pretty Pollyana has shown the best form so far. Her Newmarket win gave her a clear favourite's chance of taking the Morny, which she did. I have today's win just 1lb lower than Newmarket so she didn't improve again. This form is just about good enough to win a moderate Guineas. If next year's Guineas is as poor as this year she'd win. If it's similar to when Miss France or Blue Bunting won she'd be fighting out the finish. However she'd be no better than placed if it's of the standard won by Winter, Minding or Sky Lantern (who was better than the bare result). Then there's the question of if she'll stay a mile. To me it's not obvious she will. So not for me ante post.
By:
jamesp
When: 25 Aug 18 01:40
An intriguing renewal of the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. Aidan O'Brien runs three fillies (all by Galileo), the pick of which appears to be Zagitova (Ryan Moore), an impressive maiden winner at Cork (the same race that Magical took narrowly before winning last year's Debutante Stakes), following a debut second at Newmarket behind Antonia De Vega (a leading fancy in today's Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood); the placed fillies at Cork (including Bandiuc Eile, who re-opposes) hold Gr.1 entries and the form is probably well above average for the track; she finished full of running and took an age to pull up after the race (was reportedly lame on her right fore afterwards, but has evidently recovered quickly); she's a half-sister to the smart 6-7f performer and freshman sire Garswood but should stay a lot further than him (though speedily bred on the dam's side, she's a full sister to a 10-12f performer); she could be smart. Aidan's two other runners Hermosa, a full sister to Hydrangea (dual Gr.1 winner over 8-12f), and Peach Tree, full sister to 10-12f winner Flattering and half-sister to smart 6f filly Lucky Kristale, both got off the mark at the second attempt, the former having run promisingly behind Peach Tree on debut before winning in workmanlike fashion at Galway; both fillies have shown promise, but a lot more is needed here.

Another O'Brien runner Iridessa (trained by Joseph, ridden by Donnacha) sprang a surprise at Killarney first time out, scoring by 4 lengths from odds-on Cardini (beaten a similar distance in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot) and a couple of previous winners; she's well regarded at home and she should stay middle distances next season. The form of Chocolate Music's Curragh 6f maiden win has worked out nicely, with the placed fillies having both gone on to score by wide margins; she's speedily bred (closely related to useful 6f filly Kassia) but shapes as if she will stay 7f; she's held by Vallambrosa on earlier Fairyhouse form but may be able to reverse placings with that filly (provided she gets the trip). Skitter Scatter, winner of the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes, is a tough and progressive filly and arguably the form pick. Viadera, runner-up in the Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes on just her second start behind Marie's Diamond (ran well in the Gr.2 Richmond Stakes next time), should get 7f (dam won over 10f) and is a very promising filly. Perhaps the most interesting runner is Sheila Lavery's filly Lady Kaya, who put up a remarkable performance in the Loder Fillies Race (over C&D), making all and 10 lengths clear at halfway, with the other runners unable to make any inroads in the final quarter mile - it looked like she got a soft lead and the other jockeys completely misjudged the pace; if that performance can be taken literally she has the makings of a smart filly; she holds Gr.1 entries and is the only filly among the 79 entries for the Dewhurst.

A fascinating and unpredictable race, especially in view of the heavy rain which is forecast to hit the track for several hours on Sunday morning (with lighter rain and a stiff breeze in the afternoon) - conditions could become very testing.
By:
jamesp
When: 25 Aug 18 14:11
A nice performance from the well backed Antonia De Vega in this afternoon's Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, outpaced and under pressure quite a long way out, slightly unbalanced for a couple of strides, but finishing well to win cosily. I think the visual impression flatters her somewhat, as the pair who had made the running (Accordance and Aim Power) seemed to be running out of gas in the final 100 yards and failed to get home. The proximity of 50/1 shot Chynna (OR 78, but unexposed at the trip) in third suggests that the form is quite weak, nowhere near Guineas-winning standard. The winner should have no trouble getting a mile this season and probably 10f next year, and she's clearly a promising filly. The Gr.2 May Hill Stakes and Gr.1 Fillies Mile (or Prix Marcel Boussac) look the obvious next targets. Aidan O'Brien will have been pleased by the result, as his filly Zagitova, who runs tomorrow at the Curragh, was a very promising second to Antonia De Vega at Newmarket before impressively winning her maiden at Cork.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 17 Sep 18 18:55
Well the May Hill and Moyglare have come and gone and not much has changed in the market, with Skitter Scatter, perhaps surprisingly, still available at 16/1 despite winning a Group 3, 2 and 1 in clear cut fashion on her last three starts.

One horse I will keep in my notebook in the hope of winning a good race at a big price is Magnetic Charm who was 4th in the May Hill.
Obviously on that form she hasn’t got hope in hell of winning a Guineas but to my eyes she needs lightning quick ground to be at her best so it wasn’t too bad an effort - she has a very quick action.  Doubt she will get her conditions for the rest of this season so I’ll probably try scalping a few quid on her here and there over the winter at 3 figure prices in the hope we get a dry spring.Crazy

If she were mine I’d look at the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf  but being owned by the Queen I doubt that will happen.
By:
jamesp
When: 17 Sep 18 22:16
With Aidan O'Brien not appearing to have a star juvenile filly this season, it seems a great opportunity to get some value in the Guineas market, but I must admit I'm struggling to find a filly worth backing for the race.

It's hard to know what to make of the Moyglare Stud Stakes form. The winner Skitter Scatter can do no more than beat the fillies that she races against, but I'm not sure that she's really progressing that much: both Lady Kaya and Hermosa finished closer to her this time than they had managed to do in the Debutante Stakes previously, and several of the runners (notably Beyond Reason and Just Wonderful) ran well below expectations. The winning time (0.79s slower than the National Stakes) suggests that the form is solid but nothing special for the grade and the winner will need to improve a few more pounds to win a Guineas. On the plus side, trainer Patrick Prendergast said that his filly has just started growing and is optimistic that she can progress and develop into a Guineas filly. If she were trained by Aidan O'Brien she would be considerably shorter than the 16/1 still on offer for the Guineas (was 20/1 straight after the Moyglare). If nothing else emerges in the next few weeks, maybe she'll be the one.

The May Hill Stakes winner Fleeting looks a nice staying type for next season (the dam won over 14f and is a grand-daughter of smart 12f winner Animatrice), but she holds no big-race entries and the form of the Doncaster race looks very shaky (the runner-up came from winning a nursery off a mark of 83, the third had won a weak novice event at Kempton).

The Prestige Stakes form of Antonia De Vega took a few knocks at the Doncaster St Leger meeting where runner-up Accordance finished unplaced in the May Hill (beaten 6½ lengths), the third Chynna finished unplaced in a Listed race and the fourth Aim Power was unplaced in a sales race (receiving weight, finished behind horses officially rated 87, 85 and 83). Antonia De Vega looks a nice filly in the making, but the Goodwood form looks decidedly weak.

Rocques maintained her unbeaten record when smoothly taking the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp (a traditional prep race for the Prix Marcel Boussac). The form, with only a couple of lengths covering the first five, probably doesn't amount to much. The winner should stay middle distances next season (the dam won over 11f and is from the family of Park Hill winner Casey).
By:
deepingfox
When: 18 Sep 18 14:00
FLEETING I would say is a very good price at 33/1 gave her breeding.

The 1000 Guineas, is so tricky, no standout for me at the moment, so maybe If AOB doesn't find a super filly, he may let FLEETING take her chance in the 1000 as well, as he often preps Oaks fillies in the 1000 Guineas.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 20 Sep 18 16:12
impressive debut from hidden message today at yarmouth, showed a tidy turn of foot. entered in the rockfel i believe.
By:
deepingfox
When: 20 Sep 18 21:49
I have to agree Lewisham, HIDDEN MESSAGE looked extremely useful on debut, and Haggas doesnt have them hardened for debut.
Having viewed the dam's races she was a similar quality and won the Radley Stakes (her granddam won the race too) at Newbury next, before running well in Attraction's 1000 Guineas.
It would be no surprise to seen her run  in the Radley next, and if she won that well could vault up the 1000 Guineas betting.
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Sep 18 09:47
The forgotten filly Goddess who'd not been seen since flopping against Skitter Scatter when odds-on on 26th July at the beginning of the bug crisis at Ballydoyle; Pretty Pollyanna in the Cheveley Park next saturday could be another useful pointer for next year's 1000G Classic.
By:
deepingfox
When: 21 Sep 18 19:41
Agreed Imp, I really hope we see a fit and firing GODDESS in the next month.
By:
Figgis
When: 29 Sep 18 13:05
Pretty Pollyanna was a good bet last time and she's the one to beat again today in the Cheveley Park. If I had confidence in her running to form she'd be a great price. But in France she only repeated her Newmarket effort so the improvement looks to have plateaued, and she was pushed all the way to the line so that couldn't have been an easy race. So even though I reckon her form would see her win I will have to leave her because of doubts about her running her race. It looks wide open if she's not on song.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 Sep 18 13:10
probably one of the o'brien fillies will win, they seem to win everything else Crazy
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 Sep 18 13:11
I'm on pollyanna though. which is drifting
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 Sep 18 15:33
surprising noone ever, o'brien won

kodiac filly as well who has been the completely dominant sire this year for two year olds in terms of number of winners.
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