& now a little more at 8.6 :-)

I'm concerned about any more rain that could linger this evening. I know its been raining heavy enough Essex way so could possibly reach HQ. I like Qabala and I'm not surprised Roger Varian has been quietly downplaying her chances (before the Nell Gwyn as well) as that says to me they really like this one enough to  keep schtum. Heavily punted as well for that race, a few in the know got their $$$ on.
Of course it is actually just another race where improvement can come from absolutely anywhere but I gotta put my faith in something.

Now dry in Newmarket so expect today`s "good" ground to be replicated tomorrow.

Now dry and sunny this morning and set fair after a bit more rain last night, still puddles about. Can`t imagine the ground being any better than "good" and the winner will need to get the mile well as with yesterday`s 2000G.

I am not a fan of backing fillies from  2 to 3 years old but will have a small each way interest in Skitter Scatter and Just Wonderful.

Still no strong opinion on this apart from thinking the fav is too short. Just Wonderful and Fairyland have the best pieces of form but I'm not keen to back them. Just sticking with the small bet on Lady Kaya.

ahem! get in !

well done uncle !

James, yes she ran as well as I'd hoped and got the place money. Just found one too good as feared, although I wouldn't have expected it to be Hermosa. I backed her in the Fillies Mile last year when beaten by O'Brien Jr's horse. It's like betting against the mafia . I have the race a moderate level, as suspected beforehand, and I can see these fillies taking turns to beat each other in future.

that was my thinking uncle  "the lads are rich but as with all wealthy people its never enough  they want more and more " yesterday chapman saying tabor must have gone in on ten sovs ,today o,brien comes out with yeah we knew ten sovs wouldnt stay or words to that effect . hermosa backed off the boards today .

sintonian 30 Apr 19 10:39 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 27,777 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
There is a strange situation with Hermosa. Despite being placed in multiple Group 1s, including at Newmarket, there is only 1 bookmaker quoting her for the Guineas and it's been the same for the last week. Why would this be?


Can't recall a situation like this ever before.

Surprised Hermosa is 7/1 for the Oaks too.

Uncle, I would agree with you about Qab and JW. Both come out of the race in a positive light. But would just about them in a stongly run mile at at track like the Curragh so Ascot's bend would seemingly be a good fit.

Latest from AOB is that Hermosa may not even run in the Oaks; she could be doubling-up in the Irish 1000G.

Hermosa was beaten on all four occasions she competed at Gr.1 and Gr.2 level last season, including twice by Skitter Scatter (as alluded to by FELTFAIR) and also by Iridessa (in the Fillies' Mile). She was a solid and consistent performer at just below Guineas class last season (she was given a Racing Post Rating of 110 for each of her last three starts, including when runner-up in two Gr.1 races), but it was hard to pick her out as a likely Guineas winner on the basis of her two-year-old form, and her Guineas participation looked like a bit of an afterthought (hence her 25/1 price on the morning of the race). But we should take a close look at her breeding and pedigree: she's by Galileo (and therefore likely to progress and improve from two to three), her dam trained on from two to three (winning a Gr.2 sprint at three), her full sister Hydrangea (who had a similar juvenile campaign to Hermosa, finishing runner-up in a couple of autumn Gr.1 races) trained on really well from two to three (winning a couple of Gr.1 races, RPR 118 and 119), her full brother The United States had training problems but O'Brien still managed to get a Gr.3 win out of him at three (he later won Gr.1 and Gr.2 races in Australia), and her half-sister Fire Lily (who finished runner-up in a couple of Gr.1 races at two) likewise trained on well (finishing a close second to subsequent Guineas winner on reappearance and later won a couple of Gr.3 races). If we lost sight of Hermosa, concluding that she had had her limitations exposed by better fillies last season, it's because we took insufficient notice of her pedigree and the likelihood that she would train on well and improve from two to three.

To be honest I'd expected Hermosa to capitulate when she was joined, but she powered on again. If she goes to the Oaks (Pink Dogwood is the obstacle), and wins she'd draw a comparison with Minding, I believe; they shared something similar at Ballydoyle at the outset ie pecking order. For instance, both fillies were only 3rd best eg Hermosa behind Just Wonderful and Fairyland; Minding behind Ballydoyle and Alice Springs.

Hermosa is 13/8 fav with Lady Kaya and Just Wonderful at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively; Skitter Scatter is 8/1, but I thought the filly sustained an injury during the English 1000G, and will be out for a while.

Qabala has been supplemented, but Lady Kaya and Skitter Scatter scratched - the last mentioned rightly so given her injury sustained at Newmarket; Hermosa (5/2), Qabala (11/4) and Just Wonderful (6/1).

Incredibly sad and tragic for the horse and connections. A promising horse losing her life on the gallops.

I'd like to see Hermosa exert her superiority in the Coronation Stakes one more time before taking on the boys later in the season perhaps; Hermosa and Japan (if he shows up for the King Edward VII) are two bankers at Royal Ascot for me.