Ebor - opening gambit

... and then there's Stratum

Mullins certainly seems to have a stranglehold on it. Stratum had to win yestersay to have any chance of making the cut.

Last years winner Nakeeta ran a much better race yesterday and could be a decent e/w shout @ 20/1

I have one in mind at a massive price  - going to be touch and go if it gets in though.

Still no market on the exchange on here - sort it out Betfair you useless cu*ts.

I did think Nakeeta's last run was a very nice primer for a repeat in this but having looked at the stats the last back to back winner was 1922/3! It may be because the winner often steps up in class and doesn't run again in h'caps and consequently not many try to win in consecutive years, but I need to check that idea.

I've recently backed Count Octave at 25/1. His OR has dropped to 105 from 111 when he's been running against horse like Stradivarius. IF they STILL think he's a very good horse as they thought in pre-season, then he should be running here next and not the Lonsdale Cup.. 105 would be very attractive for a supposed Group class stayer.

does anyone know what the bottom weight was for the last 5 years..

most recent first.
9-3, 9-1, 9-1, 9-1, 8-11.

not including jockeys claiming.

I also backed Count Octave @ 25/1 (though only after it was tipped up on the Sporting Life site )

Looking at previous runnings the top 5 could all come out and weights could go up 3lb.

Last 6 runnings top weight had an official rating of 108, 109, 108, 107, 107, 109.

thanks chaps. Would be a very interesting move if Balding put up this Jason Watson fella to take off a few lbs

Yard are bang in form at the moment

All his horses ran very well at Ascot yesterday. J.Watson is 2 from 3 in his last few rides for trainer. COULD claim 3lb. I hope they dont decide to take on the knackered Order of St George in the Group 3 Leger trial on the same day in IRe

Walton Street and Count Octave are the ones that catch the eye at this stage

I've just checked and no horse has carried more than 9st 4lb to victory since Sea Pigeon in 1979, if Weekender runs then Count Octave would be 1lb too high to match that stat, I will ignore that for now(!)

Any guesses as to what will get in? I would think that Stratum is no certainty to get in, a couple on 101 got in last year and Stratum is on 102

I like the fact that both Walton Street and Count Octave are on marks that are guaranteed to get in, and both have been kept off the track for a while, hopefully to protect their handicap mark for this race

With the stabkle in such red hot form I had another bet on Count Octave at the last of the 25/1 on offer with 365. Just hope he runs now.

They are trying to get it handicapped high enough to get in the Melbourne Cup and the Lonsdale Cup is another option, though surely playing for 2nd place behind Stradivaruius (and 3rd if Torcedor runs) at best there.

He's also entered in the Irish St Leger trial the same day as the Ebor.

if they weren't bothered by the Ebor they would surely have run it more this season, for the prizemoney on offer and the chance of winning surely they go Ebor and move onto the pattern races after that?

Pretty sure Stratum will make the cut.

Thinking ahead to next year, for reference.

no. 29. stratum 9-2 lbs. or 102
    35. cosmeli 9-1    101
    40. dance the dream  9-0   100
    46. restorer 8-13  99
    48. stars over the sea 8-12  98
    50. watersmeet 8-11   97
    53. melting dew 8-11 97

Chuck all your Ebor stats in the bin - the massive prize rise makes them redundant. Be lucky if the bottom weight is lower than 102. Its ruined the race as an handicap.

Count Octave is a dodgepot and in any case Murphy will ride given the owners. Massive Balding fan but they thought he was a Gold Cup winner, then a Queen Alexander winner and now, by default, an Ebor winner.

Thanks for the info on prize rise, yep, could make a difference now to who stays in at the top.
Next year their upping the field to 25 runners too, so all change for stats.

Only about 6 pulled out of top 30, so with Stratum needing 6 more to come out, are we all agreed, that would seem doubtful now?
   If so should there be value before day of race market? Although I wish I knew  who was riding what.

looking on RP site Stratum is 23rd now, should get in from there, a few above are possibilities in other races (eg. Hochfeld)

sorry, forgot to allow for balloting, there are 7 horses on 102, do they still ballot or is there a way to decide which gets in?

"......2.2.3 Horses with the same weights - where it is necessary to eliminate some but not all horses with the same weights, those that have incurred penalties will be eliminated first and those without penalties will be eliminated in the published ascending order, such order having been determined by random balloting. Penalised horses with the same weights will also be eliminated in the published ascending order determined by random balloting, unless the horses concerned have different penalties in which case the horse with the lower penalty will be given priority. Any horse previously omitted from a Handicap or given an incorrect weight as provided for under Rule 134 will be added randomly to any horses on the same weight and such horse will be subject to elimination, if necessary, in accordance with that revised random order......"


What criteria determines a ' random order '. ?

on that basis it looks like Stratum needs 3 to come out. Count Octave is now looking a likely runner in the Lonsdale which is a shame, so that would leave 2 more

Mullins can always withdraw Whiskey Sour.

the bloob    21 Aug 18 10:01 
Count Octave is now looking a likely runner in the Lonsdale which is a shame

I thought that might happen after Torcedor was taken out.
Thank God for cash out.

thanks for reminding me about cash out! totally forgot I can do that with 3 6 5

surely the owners would get the final say on Whiskey Sour?

Game Starter looks interesting, with the obvious caveat that the long absence is a bit of a concern, looks like Oisin Murphy will ride him

was expecting a bigger price to be available before I looked though, there might be come Saturday morning, of course...

Whiskey Sour is also entered in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh on Saturday

I read on sporting life site Stratum needs 6 to drop out. Although racing post have him at number 23 if you click on official ratings he is 27th in list.

Good spot - he is also listed at number 27 on the race card on the BHA site (which I assume is the official version) - not sure why the Racing Post would feel they need to change that order - unless their order reflects the random balloting and the BHA's does n't (which is unlikely given what you read on Sporting Life)

Read Sir Chauvelin trainer saying needs 7 to come out. He's one above Stratum clicking on OR but the 4lb penalty knocks him behind Stratum.
   Confusing enough, innit.

I've read that Stratum needs 3 to come out. It's probably 50/50 that 3 or more will come out.

All my fancies won't get in the race this year. Actually think it's a poor renewal.

If you google ebor handicap stratum there's  sporting life and racing post articles both saying Stratum needs 6 to come out.

Do they know the ballot out rules ?

Stratum has made the cut, gutted!

4 came out, so it was only 3 needed.

Racing journalists don't seem to know more than the average punter, never surprises me how pitiful they are.

RP site was right all along

Racing post card was right but article in racing post the other day saying 6 needed to come out.

Very pleased. All it's got to do now is win !!

I've lost a bit of interest in the race since Count Octave pulled out, but I have dabbled with the following 3:

Teodoro  14/1
Mountain Bell  33/1
Scotland  40/1

absolutely gutted about Count Octave, that was easily Ebor winning form there

Yep - daft decision to run in the Lonsdale.

it's 4, why not target the Group races next season?

Mountain Bell e.w. 33-1

Thought I'd try an outsider, bottom weight and claimer rides, neither are negatives.

Teodoro EW for me

I like the look of Fun Mac for an e/w flutter at 50/1 .

Antepost
Nakeeta 20/1
Blakeney Point 14/1

Today
Platitude @ 30

Just hope Mullins doesn’t win it.

backed Platitude (25/1) and Weekender (14/1) ew...

Good luck!

Small interest on Whiskey Sour @ 8.8 for me.
Gd luck all.

Top weights, top trainers, richest owners. Will be looking there first next year.

Is their a ratings ceiling for the Ebor?
Imagine next year if Stradivarius, or a horse like him, isn't in line for the £1m bonus for winning the Lonsdale - surely their connections would be better off aiming at the £1m Ebor off top weight?

Don't most Top Class Handicaps have ceilings ? Which is why Trainers state a succesful horse winning a prestigious Hcap has now ruled himself out of such races in the future ( I.e new rating means it's Group races from now on )

There isn't a Flat Handicap run in GB that is "Open" in the sense that we understand Jump Open Handicaps to be.  Most have a glass ceiling of 110.  You may run from a higher mark, but you'll carry the extra over whatever weight 110 is ascribed to.  In the Ebor it's 9-10, so Stradivarius would have carried 10-04.  This is different to Jump H'caps, which have no ceiling just the prescribed top-weight.  So Denman carries 11-12 and it flows downwards from there.

It will be interesting if the race does start attracting the very best stayers/1m 4f+ older geldings.  If a 120 ran off 10-06 but you had another 21 of the very best 1m 4f - 2m horses behind him, the weights might not even get down to the 9-10 "ceiling"....