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impossible123
08 Jul 18 17:10
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
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Gustav Klimt (GK) was no matched in France this afternoon over 8f and was also beaten by Without Parole (WP) at Royal Ascot thus will again be beaten by WP. The Juddmonte (10f) looks more competitive than the Sussex (8f) eg Roaring Lion (RL), probably Masar (M) and Enable (E) in contention too.  As such, Saxon Warrior (SW), narrowly beaten by RL already could have more than a battle on his hands from these other protagonists if they run.

With the above in mind which race will Saxon Warrior more likely to go for? Which race will more likely to produce another Gp 1 winner for AOB? In addition AOB already has Rhododendron, Happily, Hydrangea, etc, to battle over 10f too.

If this is a decision for me to make, it is a no brainer which race I'd run SW in - QED.

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Replies: 42
By:
A_T
When: 08 Jul 18 18:36
let's hope it's Goodwood then so at least you get a run for your money
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 09 Jul 18 00:30
saxons no good won't win again desperate attempt sat they knew last chance with the horse

2 hard races will leave a massive scare
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 00:48
He has run a little flat again in my view. That extra gear that won him the Guineas is lacking. Give the horse a nice break and bring him back for the Irish Champion and the Arc and hope the sparkle returns.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jul 18 10:17
Sax will not run in the Arc, that is almost a certainty; a bit flat in the Eclipse at the business end, I'd accept, despite going swimmingly well 2f out but, Donnacha was correct to look after him since the hard race in the Irish Derby just a few ago. Nevertheless, I do not think he'll beat Roaring Lion (taken/pushed wide) in the Juddmonte should they meet again.

I hope running in saturday's Eclipse was to fact find his effectiveness definitively over 10f than waited for the Juddmonte in 4 weeks' time; money on The Sussex against Without Parole over The Juddmonte in my book given the defeat of Gustav Klimt in France yesterday.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 09 Jul 18 13:16
i thought you fancied saxon for the leger 123?
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 14:41
It may be almost a certainty in your mind as you try to convince yourself that he doesn't stay when the evidence suggest otherwise in my view, but I don't think that is the actual reality. Coolmore don't have any major Arc contenders at this stage, should Saxon Warrior win the Irish Champion impressively there is every chance he could be aimed at the Arc as it's the most prestigious race of the year and as the odds on favourite to win the Derby, it's a race he should be running in.
By:
Sandown
When: 09 Jul 18 15:10
Uttered more than once by AOB earlier in the season "SW actually looks like he is a miler.." are now ringing in my brain. After the Eclipse AOB said "I'd say he could go back (to a mile) anytime he wants but he didn't surrender today - Aidan O'Brien, trainer.".

The alternative theory is that he has been over-rated and is not the superstar he was thought to be.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 09 Jul 18 15:36
i stated on the derby thread, i thought the horse got a perfect trip in the guineas, he got another perfect trip in the eclipse as he did in the irish derby...basically even if we are saying his guineas performance was his best, his subsequent runs have just backed up his level of ability. i thought he ran just fine saturday but that is probably just his level. it will be interesting how he comes back after a break and on some ground with some cut in it but he clearly has his limitations class wise
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 15:37
I don't think he's a miler, although he could win top mile races on his best form. He is at least a 10 furlong horse who gets 12 for me. I don't think he has shown the same form since winning the Guineas. Roaring Lion won with more in hand than the winning margin suggests which should not have been the case if Saxon Warrior was in the same form as when winning at Newmarket and Doncaster.

The horse deserves a break to freshen up and then come back and show us if that's as good as he is or if he can progress as hoped earlier in the season.
By:
geoff m
When: 09 Jul 18 20:06
Out of Sussex.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jul 18 20:38
Connections have confounded the general consensus: Sax has been scratched from The Sussex (8f) and King George VI & QE Stakes (12f); he'll be trained for The Juddmonte (10f) and Irish Champions Stakes (10f). Bye, bye the Arc (12f).

A brave decision given he'd have an excellent chance in The Sussex against Without Parole.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 21:16
York or Leopardstown was always the aim. You are aware the Arc is 3 weeks after the Irish Champion?
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jul 18 21:29
I think Sax will never be good enough to win any Arc or win a truly run 12f Gp 1 race with Masar, Forever Together and Magic Wand present with/without Enable or Cracksman. Also, I cannot remember AOB ever targeting The Arc with one of his 3 yr old colts who's won the 2000G only.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 09 Jul 18 21:34
The Irish Champion is a good prep for the Arc - Dylan Thomas, Sea The Stars, Golden Horn and Found in recent years.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 09 Jul 18 21:36
I hope SW, RL and Masar turn up at York - means I’ll get a better price on the winner.Cool
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 21:41
I can't remember him targeting the St Leger with any of his horses that only won the Guineas either but that didn't stop you suggesting that as a possible target last week.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 21:50
Whether or not he runs in the Arc will depend upon how he performs in his next races and what other contenders Coolmore have for the race at the time. You seem to think there is no chance, I think it's quite possible.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jul 18 22:10
Initially I thought Sax had the potential to stay The Leger distance on breeding and so did his connections who are extremely horse pedigree knowledgeable. However, once Sax could/did not win the Epsom Derby that bubble was busted (for me); his defeat in the Irish equivalent was confirmation for me. Similarly, The Eclipse which he ran extremely well all things considered.

I do not think Sax will gain revenge on Roaring Lion in The Juddmonte, but glad to be proven wrong as I do hold an antepost bet on him placed prior to The Eclipse. But he'll not run in The Arc given the history of his connections (usually 4yr old plus eg Highland Reel, OoSG, Found, Winter, Seventh Heaven) except Capri (he won the Leger) given his sex, and disappointments over 12f; he is also a 2000G winner thus risking his breeding value.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 09 Jul 18 22:43
Initially I thought Sax had the potential to stay The Leger distance on breeding and so did his connections who are extremely horse pedigree knowledgeable. However, once Sax could/did not win the Epsom Derby that bubble was busted (for me); his defeat in the Irish equivalent was confirmation for me

Why did you suggest the St Leger as a possible target after the Irish Derby run then?
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jul 18 12:43
I cannot remember I ever did,...could be a typo error, but certainly not The Leger post his disappointing run against 2nd/3rd Gp 1 raters in Ireland. However, I'd have expected him to line up against Without Parole in The Sussex rather than faced a (possible) defeat by Roaring Lion in The Juddmonte should both turn up for the race.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 10 Jul 18 14:52
04 Jul 18 19:27

If Sax does show up this weekend, and not runs well then The Sussex would be his next target, not Juddmonte, I believe, or possibly the St Leger. Have we been here before? Oh yes, US Army Ranger!
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jul 18 16:22
"The Sussex would be his next target, not Juddmonte, I believe, or possibly the St Leger. Have we been here before? Oh yes, US Army Ranger!"

That was a typo error, and apology for that; I meant Capri, and Capri did not win the 2000G Guineas. Sax will not run in the Arc = connections would be humiliated, if so, and neither The Leger as AOB has more than a handful of potential proven stayers for the latter race, I firmly believe.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 11 Jul 18 16:29
I've no idea what you're talking about now. What does Capri have to do with this debate?

One minute you're saying Saxon Warrior doesn't stay 12 furlongs and the next you're suggesting the Leger as a possible target.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Jul 18 21:24
Saxon Warrior was trained for the Guineas. He won it with the perfect trip and lack of obstruction. He is overrated now.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 11 Jul 18 22:29
I don't think he was trained for the Guineas. Newmarket was a stepping stone to the Derby and apparently he wasn't 100% fit for that race. He was trained to peak at Epsom and that may be one reason why he hasn't progressed as hoped.

Having a hard race first time out when not fully fit in the Guineas can leave a mark and is the reason why I prefer my Derby horses to run in a trial at gentler pace rather than a strongly run mile at Group 1 pace in the Guineas.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 11 Jul 18 22:46
As far as I could see the Guineas was a totally fair race where they all had every chance and the best horse on the day won.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Aug 18 22:27
If I remember correctly AOB did state some time ago that post The Juddmonte connections would have a better idea as to the next path for Saxon Warrior. As such, I think after today it would be unlikely he'll be running in any Champion Stakes (10f) but instead probably in the QE2 (8f) possibly against Alpha Centauri (if she's not America bound). Otherwise more drubbing for him is assured.
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Aug 18 11:56
Apparent support for the QE2 (8f) at Ascot in October. He's into 7/2 fav with a few bookies with Alpha Centauri out to 4/1 possibly America bound perhaps and ground dependent too.
By:
deepingfox
When: 05 Sep 18 17:44
Loving the move for SAXON WARRIOR to take in the QEII on Campions Day at Ascot, hopefully a time, trip and ground  to return to form, before the season end, and look forward to seeing him again next season.
By:
twonky
When: 05 Sep 18 19:35
Personally, regarding Saxon Warrior, the sooner I see him back over a mile or 7f, if not less, the better. Already been tried over further and failed every time..
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Sep 18 19:56
I think The QE2 Stakes is the one for him at Ascot otherwise another drubbing by Roaring Lion, Poets Word and possibly Cracksman could be result again. If Alpha Centauri is America bound or adverse ground condition prevails Saxon Warrior will start fav on the day.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Sep 18 19:46
AOB on Saxon Warrior: "It's probably my fault, I probably should have kept him at a mile."

Such a shame Saxon Warrior did not have the chance to redeem himself back at the trip of his Gp 1 2000G triumph. But, big of AOB to admit the above though; a weak person will never admit their fault, big or small.

Sad ending to the careers of Alpha Centauri and Saxon Warrior, two very good horses who promised so much immediately post their respective Guineas win. Happy retirement to both!
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 18 20:39
Don't know about it being big of AOB, it's just good for business. Better that the trainer cocked up than admit the horse wasn't good enough. I'm sure his employers appreciate him taking one for the team.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 16 Sep 18 21:05
figgis, you called this horse spot on mate. after the guineas, you said he would become regressive, and he did. how you called it I will never know.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 18 21:17
RR, stopped clock and all that, ha. I had it is a poor Guineas anyway so there was room for manoeuvre even if he hadn't gone backwards. Just didn't have his Guineas win as real improvement on his RPT win so it was just a percentage call that he'd peaked. Doesn't always work but they're worth opposing when they're priced short. Trouble was I backed Roaring Lion in the Derby rather than lay SW. I was confident RL would've had enough stamina against that opposition but unfortunately he didn't.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 18 21:18
Sorry * LR.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 16 Sep 18 22:12
yes his sire stayed 1 mile four but maybe was more of a ten furlong type himself...
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 16 Sep 18 23:11
O'Brien's statement is a perfect example of the nonsense he sometimes talks purely for breeding purposes. After the Guineas they were talking about the triple crown, now they are trying to spin it that he was a miler really. He now expects us to believe that a horse they considered capable of winning a St Leger was actually a miler despite the fact he has proven he stays at least 10 furlongs in top company.

Pure milers don't get beaten half a length in an Irish Derby. He probably now wishes they had kept him at a mile because the mile division is very weak with the exception of Alpha Centauri, and they would have avoided Roaring Lion who has progressed throughout the season in the way they expected Saxon Warrior to progress but disappointingly hasn't.

Figgis has been proven correct that the horse was quite likely to not show further progression after the Guineas, but if they had stayed at a mile he would probably have still won the Gp1 races for colts and they would have tried to spin him as another Coolmore superstar. I think he would have held on yesterday had he not suffered an injury. I don't believe Roaring Lion would have made up that much ground off a slow pace if Saxon Warrior had been able to gallop all the way to the line unhindered.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 16 Sep 18 23:11
O'Brien's statement is a perfect example of the nonsense he sometimes talks purely for breeding purposes. After the Guineas they were talking about the triple crown, now they are trying to spin it that he was a miler really. He now expects us to believe that a horse they considered capable of winning a St Leger was actually a miler despite the fact he has proven he stays at least 10 furlongs in top company.

Pure milers don't get beaten half a length in an Irish Derby. He probably now wishes they had kept him at a mile because the mile division is very weak with the exception of Alpha Centauri, and they would have avoided Roaring Lion who has progressed throughout the season in the way they expected Saxon Warrior to progress but disappointingly hasn't.

Figgis has been proven correct that the horse was quite likely to not show further progression after the Guineas, but if they had stayed at a mile he would probably have still won the Gp1 races for colts and they would have tried to spin him as another Coolmore superstar. I think he would have held on yesterday had he not suffered an injury. I don't believe Roaring Lion would have made up that much ground off a slow pace if Saxon Warrior had been able to gallop all the way to the line unhindered.
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