Saxon Warrior: The Sussex or the Juddmonte

saxons no good won't win again desperate attempt sat they knew last chance with the horse

2 hard races will leave a massive scare

Sax will not run in the Arc, that is almost a certainty; a bit flat in the Eclipse at the business end, I'd accept, despite going swimmingly well 2f out but, Donnacha was correct to look after him since the hard race in the Irish Derby just a few ago. Nevertheless, I do not think he'll beat Roaring Lion (taken/pushed wide) in the Juddmonte should they meet again.

I hope running in saturday's Eclipse was to fact find his effectiveness definitively over 10f than waited for the Juddmonte in 4 weeks' time; money on The Sussex against Without Parole over The Juddmonte in my book given the defeat of Gustav Klimt in France yesterday.

It may be almost a certainty in your mind as you try to convince yourself that he doesn't stay when the evidence suggest otherwise in my view, but I don't think that is the actual reality. Coolmore don't have any major Arc contenders at this stage, should Saxon Warrior win the Irish Champion impressively there is every chance he could be aimed at the Arc as it's the most prestigious race of the year and as the odds on favourite to win the Derby, it's a race he should be running in.

i stated on the derby thread, i thought the horse got a perfect trip in the guineas, he got another perfect trip in the eclipse as he did in the irish derby...basically even if we are saying his guineas performance was his best, his subsequent runs have just backed up his level of ability. i thought he ran just fine saturday but that is probably just his level. it will be interesting how he comes back after a break and on some ground with some cut in it but he clearly has his limitations class wise

Out of Sussex.

York or Leopardstown was always the aim. You are aware the Arc is 3 weeks after the Irish Champion?

The Irish Champion is a good prep for the Arc - Dylan Thomas, Sea The Stars, Golden Horn and Found in recent years.

I can't remember him targeting the St Leger with any of his horses that only won the Guineas either but that didn't stop you suggesting that as a possible target last week.

Initially I thought Sax had the potential to stay The Leger distance on breeding and so did his connections who are extremely horse pedigree knowledgeable. However, once Sax could/did not win the Epsom Derby that bubble was busted (for me); his defeat in the Irish equivalent was confirmation for me. Similarly, The Eclipse which he ran extremely well all things considered.

I do not think Sax will gain revenge on Roaring Lion in The Juddmonte, but glad to be proven wrong as I do hold an antepost bet on him placed prior to The Eclipse. But he'll not run in The Arc given the history of his connections (usually 4yr old plus eg Highland Reel, OoSG, Found, Winter, Seventh Heaven) except Capri (he won the Leger) given his sex, and disappointments over 12f; he is also a 2000G winner thus risking his breeding value.

I cannot remember I ever did,...could be a typo error, but certainly not The Leger post his disappointing run against 2nd/3rd Gp 1 raters in Ireland. However, I'd have expected him to line up against Without Parole in The Sussex rather than faced a (possible) defeat by Roaring Lion in The Juddmonte should both turn up for the race.

"The Sussex would be his next target, not Juddmonte, I believe, or possibly the St Leger. Have we been here before? Oh yes, US Army Ranger!"

That was a typo error, and apology for that; I meant Capri, and Capri did not win the 2000G Guineas. Sax will not run in the Arc = connections would be humiliated, if so, and neither The Leger as AOB has more than a handful of potential proven stayers for the latter race, I firmly believe.

Saxon Warrior was trained for the Guineas. He won it with the perfect trip and lack of obstruction. He is overrated now.

As far as I could see the Guineas was a totally fair race where they all had every chance and the best horse on the day won.

Apparent support for the QE2 (8f) at Ascot in October. He's into 7/2 fav with a few bookies with Alpha Centauri out to 4/1 possibly America bound perhaps and ground dependent too.

Personally, regarding Saxon Warrior, the sooner I see him back over a mile or 7f, if not less, the better. Already been tried over further and failed every time..

AOB on Saxon Warrior: "It's probably my fault, I probably should have kept him at a mile."

Such a shame Saxon Warrior did not have the chance to redeem himself back at the trip of his Gp 1 2000G triumph. But, big of AOB to admit the above though; a weak person will never admit their fault, big or small.

Sad ending to the careers of Alpha Centauri and Saxon Warrior, two very good horses who promised so much immediately post their respective Guineas win. Happy retirement to both!

figgis, you called this horse spot on mate. after the guineas, you said he would become regressive, and he did. how you called it I will never know.

Sorry * LR.

O'Brien's statement is a perfect example of the nonsense he sometimes talks purely for breeding purposes. After the Guineas they were talking about the triple crown, now they are trying to spin it that he was a miler really. He now expects us to believe that a horse they considered capable of winning a St Leger was actually a miler despite the fact he has proven he stays at least 10 furlongs in top company.

Pure milers don't get beaten half a length in an Irish Derby. He probably now wishes they had kept him at a mile because the mile division is very weak with the exception of Alpha Centauri, and they would have avoided Roaring Lion who has progressed throughout the season in the way they expected Saxon Warrior to progress but disappointingly hasn't.

Figgis has been proven correct that the horse was quite likely to not show further progression after the Guineas, but if they had stayed at a mile he would probably have still won the Gp1 races for colts and they would have tried to spin him as another Coolmore superstar. I think he would have held on yesterday had he not suffered an injury. I don't believe Roaring Lion would have made up that much ground off a slow pace if Saxon Warrior had been able to gallop all the way to the line unhindered.