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impossible123
25 Jun 18 16:25
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 30,419 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Crystal Ocean is 5/2 fav, can it be serious? Or is he fav because of the lacklustre performances of Cracksman (7/2) at Epsom (unsuited course) and Royal Ascot (fillies induced)?

I expect Gosden to do the oracle, and the real Cracksman will show at Ascot to stamp his authority over these oppositions.
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Report Andrew in Sweden June 25, 2018 5:53 PM BST
It's 5/2 favourite for a reason.

You appear to be confident Cracksman is a good thing, so would you be prepared to lay me a price on Crystal Ocean ?
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 5:24 AM BST
Fozzy,

I totally understand the logic behind the CoM yardstick, but he's unreliable these days and Cracksman is not 5L better than Crystal Ocean. On latest BHA ratings, they would actually dead heat and you couldn't rule out Poets Word.

I think there's something amiss with Cracksman and he may not even run, although that's simply opinion on course.

If Saxon Warrior wins the Irish Derby he's another one that would shake up the market (8/1 on here, albeit for buttons).

I like Crystal Ocean, a much improved colt, travels well, stays 12f easily, acts on any going and is a worthy favourite on what we know today. Having said that i would want to see the field before having a decent bet, even if i do. Good luck.
Report unclepuncle June 26, 2018 7:40 AM BST
She’s not entered and I’m not sure if there is a supplementary stage but if it stays hot and dry then I’d love to see Magic Wand run in it - recorded a near identical time to Cyrstal Ocean, and 3 year old fillies have a decent record in the big 12f races in recent years.
Report unclepuncle June 26, 2018 7:43 AM BST
Certainly couldn’t touch Cracksman at any price.
Report impossible123 June 26, 2018 2:56 PM BST
Apart from the distraction Cracksman had from the fillies at Royal Ascot the good to firm ground plus 10f were not conducive to his potential. I'm all over Cracksman, potential wise...my only concern is his showing up for unforeseen circumstance. And Gosden has never been a rewarding trainer for me eg So Mi Dar (Oaks), Golden Horn (Arc) and Cracksman (Derby), but hoping for a change of fortune.

Crystal Ocean beat nothing of significance eg Red Verdon (only won in AW since Chester) and 2nd Step; Poet's Word (more suited to 10f > Laraaib). 

Cracksman at 7/2 is tremendous value, in my opinion - his true value is nearer 5/4, I firmly believe.
Report unclepuncle June 26, 2018 5:02 PM BST
impossible123
26 Jun 18 14:56
I'm all over Cracksman, potential wise...


Well done spottting his potential - he has gone under the radar to everyone else.LaughLaughLaugh
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 5:11 PM BST
Fozzy,

Crystal Ocean won off a mark of 122 and been raised 3 lb now rated 125, same as Cracksman.

The BHA use a figure of 1.5lbs per length over 10f-12f on good going.

Impossible123,

The BHA and bookmakers do not agree with you, but what do they know. If you would really put hard earned on Cracksman at 5/4, then i know you are not a good punter, but as i always say, it's all about opinions.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 6:47 PM BST
fozzy,

Look at the KG race
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 6:49 PM BST
Opps sorry fozzy, you're correct
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 6:51 PM BST
Both on 122, so i was correct with the dead heat Wink
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 7:10 PM BST
Entries for KG and Eclipse according to SL

Cracksman
4 9-7 OR: 122
T: J H M GosdenJ:
Form: 2111-112

Same entries in RP shows 130 this can't be correct
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 7:27 PM BST
BHA website

Last updated; 26 Jun 18, 07:00am

Cracksman 125
Crystal Ocean 122

No dead heat !

Finally Grin
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 8:24 PM BST
Agreed

Latest BHA updates

Poets Word up 7 lb to 126
Magic Wand up 11 lb to 115
Report impossible123 June 26, 2018 8:30 PM BST
I think it's prudent not to give too much credence to ratings in non-handicap races; Gosden could be engineering a decrease so that he and connections could lump on heavy in the future eg Epsom (unsuited course) and Royal Ascot (firm going/inadequate trip). If I was the owner I'd have run him in only one, at best.

The KG & QE will see the Cracksman of last season, I'm more than hopeful.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 26, 2018 8:35 PM BST
Cracksman at 7/2 is tremendous value, in my opinion - his true value is nearer 5/4, I firmly believe.

I've just put up £120 at 4.6 if you want it
Report unclepuncle June 26, 2018 8:47 PM BST
His max bet is £5 unless he can arb.
Report unclepuncle June 26, 2018 8:49 PM BST
impossible123
26 Jun 18 20:30
I think it's prudent not to give too much credence to ratings in non-handicap races; Gosden could be engineering a decrease so that he and connections could lump on heavy in the future eg Epsom


Just when you think he can’t spout anything more stupid than his last post.Laugh
Report Figgis June 26, 2018 9:50 PM BST
The KG & QE will see the Cracksman of last season, I'm more than hopeful.

This year I think we pretty much already have seen the Cracksman of last season, that has been the problem. In real terms horses need to improve from 3 to 4 just to match their best 3yo rating, he hasn't as yet. Disregarding wfa I have his POW run only 2lbs behind his Champion Stakes demolition job. Dettori eased him slightly at the finish so I reckon it was very close to his previous best.
Report A_T June 27, 2018 10:25 AM BST
Gosden could be engineering a decrease so that he and connections could lump on heavy in the future

what?
Report impossible123 June 27, 2018 6:55 PM BST
Could be disturbing news for backers of Cracksman in the King George & QE Stakes. His owner Mr Oppenheimer said: "We have absolutely no future plans until we are confident he's up to his top ability. He's very well and in about two weeks' time we'' have a pretty good idea. I'll just have to see what Mr Gosden feels."

My nemesis with Gosden runners for big races could haunt me (again).
Report impossible123 July 10, 2018 12:59 PM BST
News just out about Cracksman.

Gosden: "Cracksman is more likely to miss the King George & QE Stakes...we'll keep an eye on the King George & QE Stakes but he's more likely coming back in the late summer/autumn campaigns."

What a shame? His ideal race could be taken away after running in the PoW on the wrong ground (good to firm), and distance (10f). Another Jack Hobbs scenario could be repeating itself again a year later (sadly).
Report impossible123 July 13, 2018 2:59 PM BST
Could be disturbing news for Crystal Ocean the fav too; friendless and drifting, but his stable companion Poets World has been well backed into fav with some bookies yesterday.

Perils of antepost could strike again after Cracksman (possibly an unlikely runner).
Report impossible123 July 14, 2018 2:58 PM BST
Both Crystal Ocean and Poets Word are down to run; the latter's been backed, the former on the drift (here). And Cracksman worked very well earlier today.
Report sintonian July 16, 2018 2:56 PM BST
So you're saying Cracksman was run on the wrong ground in the POW, but what makes you think it is going to be any different in 2 weeks time?
Report duffy July 16, 2018 4:51 PM BST
Ascot wouldn't be Cracksman's track on quick ground, he needs a long straight to get that stride going, although it sacrifices a couple of furlongs I'd run him in the Juddmonte as York would allow him to show his real strength.
Report woodmanchester July 20, 2018 7:29 PM BST
Kew Gardens and go on to win the Leger?
Report impossible123 July 20, 2018 9:37 PM BST
This could turn out to be a substandard renewal if Cracksman does not show. The fav Crystal Ocean has never won a Gp 1 race; 2nd fav Poets World from the same stable is best over 10f.

Kew Gardens has improved with each race since Epsom when held up, and stays the trip well; Walgeist and Coronet were closely matched in France; Rostropovich might have a chance, the rest running for a place at best, I believe.

Will Gosden chance it with Cracksman given the horse is thriving at home, and opposition poor? The distance will suit, the ground (probable good/good to firm) with weather pretty settled for next week.
Report woodmanchester July 21, 2018 3:44 PM BST
Well done, Impossible. Informative as always. Don't understand why you get negative press sometimes
Report Figgis July 21, 2018 4:02 PM BST
Where is the proof that Poet's Word is best over 10f?
Report unclepuncle July 22, 2018 9:00 AM BST
woodmanchester = impossible 123 (NAP)
Report woodmanchester July 22, 2018 11:01 PM BST
Done your dough again, Puncle! Laugh
Report impossible123 July 23, 2018 10:38 AM BST
'woodmanchester', criticism does bother me at all especially non-constructive ones but purely personal, and not conducive to opinions or view points. I believe if one puts one's head above the parapet without an opposite and/or ulterior motive but honesty one "should" expect not to be wholly agreed with especially on a forum like this one as there are ego mongers aplenty...'ces't la vie'; not a deterrent or detrimental to my line of thoughts and/or betting methodology.

If the views of ego mongers are worth listening to I'd refrain from using the 'ignore' button otherwise, I'd bin them without a moment's hesitation. Life is too short, and horse racing is only a game,...not the be all or end all; opinions are in abundance, and polarised sometimes.

No Cracksman = a well below par renewal.
Report unclepuncle July 23, 2018 11:05 AM BST
^Talking to yourself is meant to be the first sign of madness but in your case your posts over the last 3 years have forewarned us.Laugh

Cracksman isn’t running because his connections don’t think he can win, so how would his participation make it any better?
Report dunlaying July 23, 2018 11:23 AM BST
Crystal Ocean has a lot on his plate for a 6/4 shot even without Cracksman . I much prefer Kew Gardens .
Report duffy July 23, 2018 2:18 PM BST
Remember when there was an abundance of top class older horses in training contesting the likes of this race.
Report impossible123 July 25, 2018 11:57 AM BST
Given the probable good weather forecast Cracksman is a very unlikely runner unless the weathermen have got it spectacularly wrong. Should Gosden have a change of heart and Cracksman does run he'd be a short price fav given the inferior field; stablemates Crystal Ocean and Poets Word are hotties, but a surprise cannot be totally discounted, I think.
Report EastLower Gooner July 25, 2018 12:17 PM BST
There’s a chance of thunderstorms
Report impossible123 July 25, 2018 1:50 PM BST
A thunder storm or a massive deluge would be a godsend (to me, antepost wise) and those who'd like to see the best horses competing this being the King George, but I'd doubt that very much as the precipitation forecast for the course is next to negligible.

This year's renewal is poor!
Report Figgis July 25, 2018 2:15 PM BST
Well there's at least one horse still in the race that has run faster than Cracksman ever has (disregarding wfa). Would've still liked to see Cracksman run though just to take a slice of the mug money Wink
Report blackbarn July 26, 2018 12:57 PM BST
Cracksman declared. No Kew Gardens, and no Walgeist as expected.
Report impossible123 July 26, 2018 3:00 PM BST
I think even on good ground I'd expect an on-song Cracksman to walk away with the race, and nrnb is the valuable insurance every punter relishes. As for Kew Gardens it is a shame, but the reason for his absence has gone some way to explain why Magic Wand ran below her form in the Irish Oaks.

Let's hope the thunderstorms materialise and Cracksman makes this gig.
Report twonky July 26, 2018 4:04 PM BST
If the going is gf, then my ratings say
1/ poets world 102
2/ crystal ocean 100
3/ Rostropovich 100
4/ cracksman 98

Poets likes fast ground and will get away with gd, doesn't want soft in the description.
Crystal ocean, group 3 win rated better than his latest group 2 second, needs to improve
Rostropovich, win and place from 2 runs over 12f gives ew backers hope..looks more of a leger type to me.
Cracksman, not enough evidence for a big figure on gf, many would say that the going beat him lto, imo it was more to do with it being his 3rd group 1 in 7 weeks.

If the going is good.

1/ cracksman 104
2/ poets world 100
3/ hydrangea 100

Hydrangea, gf ground is just no good to her is would be the case with pivotal being in the breeding..Yorkshire oaks with give is hers.

If going is gs

1/ cracksman 103
2/ hydrangea 100
3/ coronet 100

Coronet..2 very nice runs this season with the Haydock 2nd franking the form in a group 2 nto. Can still only rate her top at group2 level

If going is soft...

1/ cracksman 107
2/ hydrangea 102
3/ salouen 100

Salouen, frequently runs very well races without winning, latest 2nd to cracksman reads well but Epsom is not his course. Worsening of the ground will suit him more than most.
Report EastLower Gooner July 27, 2018 12:53 PM BST
Probably odds on for no rain...currently blue sky’s and baking hot.
Report A_T July 27, 2018 3:29 PM BST
Heavy rain south of Ascot and heading north.
Report impossible123 July 27, 2018 3:49 PM BST
Last chance (saloon) for Cracksman this evening/night and tomorrow morning for a deluge; long odds it will not materialise sufficiently to facilitate his running, but glad to be proven wrong.

Over $700k prize money is a mighty persuader even for his connections, I believe.
Report WhiteHatJon July 27, 2018 11:48 PM BST
I may be a little daft here, but would it be fair to say that :

a) Poets has never won over so far ?
b) Cracksman has never won on such ground ?

So by deduction isn't Crystal Ocean @ 11/4 a fair bet ?

That's where my £2 will be wagered.

GL all.
Report twonky July 28, 2018 7:31 AM BST
Poets word has won over 11 and 12f, both at goodwood
Report woodmanchester July 28, 2018 7:32 AM BST
Cracksman cant beat Poets Word on their last run, so surprised bigger price available the latter

I like the horse, but think Crystal Ocean slightly over-estimated

Played 11/4, plus boost, Poets anyway
Report impossible123 July 28, 2018 8:19 AM BST
Only 2mm of rain fell on course and going remained good to firm with little to no rain forecast prior to racing. Cracksman would travel, and Gosden would walk course prior racing.

This is a lousy renewal considering over £700k to the winner; Poets Word is best over 10f (ground in his favour, and he could be improving); the fav Crystal Ocean has never won a Gp 1; the rest really not up to it unless Hydrangea (attempting 12f for the 1st time) excels.

I think Cracksman would have a favourite's chance over this distance, if running, despite good to firm ground given the sub-standard opposition.
Report twonky July 28, 2018 8:30 AM BST
Hydrangea is a cd winner imp
Report woodmanchester July 28, 2018 8:36 AM BST
Coronet could be the over-priced dark horse too, Impossible
Report Murgutpura July 28, 2018 9:04 AM BST
if cracksman runs
can Robert havlin win a group 1
I don't think so
Report impossible123 July 28, 2018 9:46 AM BST
'twonky', sorry,...was probably thinking about another horse that was withdrawn (late) as I was typing. Coronet is a big price, similarly Hydrangea, but I cannot back either Crystal Ocean or Poets Word with confidence despite their short prices.

I hope Cracksman runs. If Gosden ran him in the PoW over 10f (which was absurd, in my opinion) on good to firm ground then over his best distance Gosden would be more likely to run despite the official ground description.
Report unclepuncle July 28, 2018 11:11 AM BST
No bet for me at the available odds  but have a sneaky feeling that Crystal Ocean May put up a Harbinger’esque performance.
Report 1st time poster July 28, 2018 11:17 AM BST
when was the last king George clash of the generations,derby winner etc,run,instead of the 700 grand for 2nd raters weve had for the last 10 years or so, seems the race is only kept in the calender to cater for stoutes older horses
Report woodmanchester July 28, 2018 11:39 AM BST
Harbinger was the wrong Stoute winner. Crystal nothing Harbinger'esque about it
Report blackbarn July 28, 2018 1:13 PM BST
Cracksman N/R
Report Figgis July 28, 2018 1:59 PM BST
Finally Gosden has announced what seemed almost inevitable. There has been a lot of talk about Cracksman not being the horse he was but for me the problem is he hasn't improved from 3 to 4 like horses need to in order to stay at the top. Nevertheless, as laboured as his POW may have looked it was still a very fast performance and only a couple of pounds short of his Champion Stakes demolition job. Meaning that Poet's Word but up a top drawer performance to beat him and I have it easily the best performance this season by any horse over any trip. Crystal Ocean is on a winning streak and further improvement can't be ruled out. Although in my view he will need to improve significantly on what he's shown as I have him fully a stone behind Poet's Word. His Hardwicke win was not in the class of Harbinger's win in the same race that's for sure.

The question with Poet's Word is if he will maintain that form. As a 5yo it can only be a matter of time before he starts to deteriorate. However, I have his latest win 11lbs better than his previous best so there is a strong chance he'll be good for at least one more run. There have been doubts raised about his stamina over this trip even though he has won over it. Personally I've never seen anything to doubt him but it has to be accepted that he's never shown his POW form over this trip and might not be quite as good over it. Given his past form over 12f I can't see him completely bombing out over the extra 2f but he may drop a few pounds. However I have him with plenty to spare here and make his real chances odds on so I've backed him.
Report Sandown July 28, 2018 2:27 PM BST
Figgis

I'm not playing in the race as I am unable to make a clear case at the prices for one of the Stoute pair who must be considered to be the most probable winners but I can see how you how you have got to Poets Word although I have little between them. From an odds compiling standpoint, its difficult for BM's to go longer on either as they can probably get both backed at around 7/4 each of 2. I can't Dutch them because I have to give some kind of chance to the rest.Good luck.
Report woodmanchester July 28, 2018 2:39 PM BST
Well, I wouldn't be laying Poets even at evens
Report Figgis July 28, 2018 2:42 PM BST
Hi Sandown. Which of Crystal Ocean's runs do you have close to Poet's Word, the Hardwicke?
Report Sandown July 28, 2018 2:55 PM BST
Figgis

Yes, although I agree with you that on overall times PW was faster probably to the degree that you have. The reason why I have them closer is the old one of how the splits pan out.CO finished in 23.78 against PW in 24.79  and when using my conversion formula they are virtually the same. Of course, CO was over 12f whilst PW was over 10f. For what its worth, I don't have a problem with him delivering over 12f - I think that ground is much more important to him and he has the fast ground he is best on. I suppose I should look at the DFCool
Report Figgis July 28, 2018 3:07 PM BST
I actually have Desert Encounter next best in, but I have to go all the way back to his Eclipse run for that and as he's a 6yo now I wouldn't put much faith in him repeating that level.
Report Sandown July 28, 2018 3:17 PM BST
Figgis

DE is a consistent animal, and this is his ground, and at the prices he does represent value at 80.0 each way, or at least for a place.
Report Sandown July 28, 2018 3:47 PM BST
Phew! WD Figgis
Report Figgis July 28, 2018 3:51 PM BST
Never in doubt Wink. No it was very close like you thought Sandown.
Report woodmanchester July 28, 2018 3:55 PM BST
Delighted with Poets Word, kerrrching!

Behind, had to come wide and obviously stays to get the better of a Leger horse setting the pace Cool
Report twonky July 28, 2018 5:04 PM BST
Wonderful finish to the race with a full 9 lengths back to the 3rd.

A couple of notable points about the race...this race is no longer deemed glamorous in the racing calendar proberley because it has bottomed and  finished off so many horses over the years and more prestigious races later in the season..regarding the first The first point, I can see both poets word and crystal ocean not winning another race between them. The time was by far the best over the 2 days and for future reference, the beaten horses only will be noted. Of which I'd take Rostoprovich but only against his own age group. Obviously ran below his best but if the stable had been in better form, he'd have finished closer. Still believe him to be a leger horse.
Report roadrunner46 July 28, 2018 5:14 PM BST
group 1 races being so difficult to win, an easy choice to pick the winner over crystal ocean, plus a victory
against cracksman reads very well. was a very good run from crystal ocean to get so close and nearly win,
f/c didnt pay much, looked nailed on. WD winners
Report impossible123 July 28, 2018 5:16 PM BST
It was a wonderful race to watch. The winner Poets Word is 3/1 best with bookies, but a generous 5/1 with 'Matchb**k for The Juddmonte.
Report twonky July 28, 2018 5:24 PM BST
Would be absolute suicide to even think about running in a race just 4 weeks or so away.
Report impossible123 July 28, 2018 5:44 PM BST
The 5/1 with Matchb**k for The Juddmonte is long gone. I think 4 weeks is more than adequate time between races in horse racing; AOB's done it with her fillies and colts eg Saxon Warrior and Delano Roosevelt; Elarqam had the same race as his next target prior to his defeat today, and possibly still do given he ran a bit free earlier on 1st time over 10f on soft ground.
Report unclepuncle July 28, 2018 6:16 PM BST
Ulysses ran very well in the POW, Eclipse, King George and Juddmonte last season with no apparent deteriotion in form - if anything he got better with each run.
If it's fast ground at ork I see no reason to think Poets Word won't run his race and be a warm favourite.
Report woodmanchester July 29, 2018 6:52 AM BST
All over Poets Word yesterday but Roaring Lion wins the Juddmonte! Wink
Report impossible123 July 29, 2018 9:46 AM BST
'woodmanchester', well done with Poets Word. I

I hope you're right about Roaring Lion in the Juddmonte, but for AOB to forego a probable win in The Sussex with Saxon Warrior - a penalty kick to me - and try and avenge his defeat in the Eclipse I'd exercise utmost caution given The Eclipse was only just 7 days after the defeat of Saxon Warrior in the Irish Derby.
Report sixtwosix July 29, 2018 6:06 PM BST
Great finish by two typical quality improving horses from the stable but........how far back where the hapless also rans ?
Report unclepuncle July 29, 2018 7:20 PM BST
Have to wonder why Coolmore bothered running their two.
They have campaigned Hydraenga absolutely terribly this year.
Report woodmanchester July 30, 2018 6:54 AM BST
With respect Impossible, think it's going to be more like the distance between them in the Derby this time Wink
Report impossible123 July 30, 2018 4:37 PM BST
Out of respect for AOB I've not lost faith with Saxon Warrior despite my strong belief he truly is a miler thus The Sussex would be his for the taking if he'd ran, i firmly believe, as I do not believe Gustav Klimt is likely to be able to avenge his defeat by Without Parole who is still improving.

I've Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion anteposts, and since the King George and QE Stakes Poets Word too at 5/1. And I hope any of these three will win.
Report woodmanchester July 30, 2018 8:17 PM BST
Spread your net wide, Impossible! LaughWink
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