Horse Antepost
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25 Jun 18
17:25
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
Crystal Ocean is 5/2 fav, can it be serious? Or is he fav because of the lacklustre performances of Cracksman (7/2) at Epsom (unsuited course) and Royal Ascot (fillies induced)?
I expect Gosden to do the oracle, and the real Cracksman will show at Ascot to stamp his authority over these oppositions.
I expect Gosden to do the oracle, and the real Cracksman will show at Ascot to stamp his authority over these oppositions.
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It's 5/2 favourite for a reason.
You appear to be confident Cracksman is a good thing, so would you be prepared to lay me a price on Crystal Ocean ? |
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Fozzy,
I totally understand the logic behind the CoM yardstick, but he's unreliable these days and Cracksman is not 5L better than Crystal Ocean. On latest BHA ratings, they would actually dead heat and you couldn't rule out Poets Word. I think there's something amiss with Cracksman and he may not even run, although that's simply opinion on course. If Saxon Warrior wins the Irish Derby he's another one that would shake up the market (8/1 on here, albeit for buttons). I like Crystal Ocean, a much improved colt, travels well, stays 12f easily, acts on any going and is a worthy favourite on what we know today. Having said that i would want to see the field before having a decent bet, even if i do. Good luck. |
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She’s not entered and I’m not sure if there is a supplementary stage but if it stays hot and dry then I’d love to see Magic Wand run in it - recorded a near identical time to Cyrstal Ocean, and 3 year old fillies have a decent record in the big 12f races in recent years.
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Certainly couldn’t touch Cracksman at any price.
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Apart from the distraction Cracksman had from the fillies at Royal Ascot the good to firm ground plus 10f were not conducive to his potential. I'm all over Cracksman, potential wise...my only concern is his showing up for unforeseen circumstance. And Gosden has never been a rewarding trainer for me eg So Mi Dar (Oaks), Golden Horn (Arc) and Cracksman (Derby), but hoping for a change of fortune.
Crystal Ocean beat nothing of significance eg Red Verdon (only won in AW since Chester) and 2nd Step; Poet's Word (more suited to 10f > Laraaib). Cracksman at 7/2 is tremendous value, in my opinion - his true value is nearer 5/4, I firmly believe. |
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impossible123
26 Jun 18 14:56 I'm all over Cracksman, potential wise... Well done spottting his potential - he has gone under the radar to everyone else.  |
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Fozzy,
Crystal Ocean won off a mark of 122 and been raised 3 lb now rated 125, same as Cracksman. The BHA use a figure of 1.5lbs per length over 10f-12f on good going. Impossible123, The BHA and bookmakers do not agree with you, but what do they know. If you would really put hard earned on Cracksman at 5/4, then i know you are not a good punter, but as i always say, it's all about opinions. |
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fozzy,
Look at the KG race |
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Opps sorry fozzy, you're correct
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Both on 122, so i was correct with the dead heat
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Entries for KG and Eclipse according to SL
Cracksman 4 9-7 OR: 122 T: J H M GosdenJ: Form: 2111-112 Same entries in RP shows 130 this can't be correct |
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BHA website
Last updated; 26 Jun 18, 07:00am Cracksman 125 Crystal Ocean 122 No dead heat ! Finally  |
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Agreed
Latest BHA updates Poets Word up 7 lb to 126 Magic Wand up 11 lb to 115 |
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I think it's prudent not to give too much credence to ratings in non-handicap races; Gosden could be engineering a decrease so that he and connections could lump on heavy in the future eg Epsom (unsuited course) and Royal Ascot (firm going/inadequate trip). If I was the owner I'd have run him in only one, at best.
The KG & QE will see the Cracksman of last season, I'm more than hopeful. |
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Cracksman at 7/2 is tremendous value, in my opinion - his true value is nearer 5/4, I firmly believe.
I've just put up £120 at 4.6 if you want it |
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His max bet is £5 unless he can arb.
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impossible123
26 Jun 18 20:30 I think it's prudent not to give too much credence to ratings in non-handicap races; Gosden could be engineering a decrease so that he and connections could lump on heavy in the future eg Epsom Just when you think he can’t spout anything more stupid than his last post. |
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The KG & QE will see the Cracksman of last season, I'm more than hopeful.
This year I think we pretty much already have seen the Cracksman of last season, that has been the problem. In real terms horses need to improve from 3 to 4 just to match their best 3yo rating, he hasn't as yet. Disregarding wfa I have his POW run only 2lbs behind his Champion Stakes demolition job. Dettori eased him slightly at the finish so I reckon it was very close to his previous best. |
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Gosden could be engineering a decrease so that he and connections could lump on heavy in the future
what? |
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Could be disturbing news for backers of Cracksman in the King George & QE Stakes. His owner Mr Oppenheimer said: "We have absolutely no future plans until we are confident he's up to his top ability. He's very well and in about two weeks' time we'' have a pretty good idea. I'll just have to see what Mr Gosden feels."
My nemesis with Gosden runners for big races could haunt me (again). |
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News just out about Cracksman.
Gosden: "Cracksman is more likely to miss the King George & QE Stakes...we'll keep an eye on the King George & QE Stakes but he's more likely coming back in the late summer/autumn campaigns." What a shame? His ideal race could be taken away after running in the PoW on the wrong ground (good to firm), and distance (10f). Another Jack Hobbs scenario could be repeating itself again a year later (sadly). |
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Could be disturbing news for Crystal Ocean the fav too; friendless and drifting, but his stable companion Poets World has been well backed into fav with some bookies yesterday.
Perils of antepost could strike again after Cracksman (possibly an unlikely runner). |
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Both Crystal Ocean and Poets Word are down to run; the latter's been backed, the former on the drift (here). And Cracksman worked very well earlier today.
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So you're saying Cracksman was run on the wrong ground in the POW, but what makes you think it is going to be any different in 2 weeks time?
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Ascot wouldn't be Cracksman's track on quick ground, he needs a long straight to get that stride going, although it sacrifices a couple of furlongs I'd run him in the Juddmonte as York would allow him to show his real strength.
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Kew Gardens and go on to win the Leger?
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This could turn out to be a substandard renewal if Cracksman does not show. The fav Crystal Ocean has never won a Gp 1 race; 2nd fav Poets World from the same stable is best over 10f.
Kew Gardens has improved with each race since Epsom when held up, and stays the trip well; Walgeist and Coronet were closely matched in France; Rostropovich might have a chance, the rest running for a place at best, I believe. Will Gosden chance it with Cracksman given the horse is thriving at home, and opposition poor? The distance will suit, the ground (probable good/good to firm) with weather pretty settled for next week. |
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Well done, Impossible. Informative as always. Don't understand why you get negative press sometimes
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Where is the proof that Poet's Word is best over 10f?
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woodmanchester = impossible 123 (NAP)
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Done your dough again, Puncle!
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'woodmanchester', criticism does bother me at all especially non-constructive ones but purely personal, and not conducive to opinions or view points. I believe if one puts one's head above the parapet without an opposite and/or ulterior motive but honesty one "should" expect not to be wholly agreed with especially on a forum like this one as there are ego mongers aplenty...'ces't la vie'; not a deterrent or detrimental to my line of thoughts and/or betting methodology.
If the views of ego mongers are worth listening to I'd refrain from using the 'ignore' button otherwise, I'd bin them without a moment's hesitation. Life is too short, and horse racing is only a game,...not the be all or end all; opinions are in abundance, and polarised sometimes. No Cracksman = a well below par renewal. |
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^Talking to yourself is meant to be the first sign of madness but in your case your posts over the last 3 years have forewarned us.
Cracksman isn’t running because his connections don’t think he can win, so how would his participation make it any better? |
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Crystal Ocean has a lot on his plate for a 6/4 shot even without Cracksman . I much prefer Kew Gardens .
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Remember when there was an abundance of top class older horses in training contesting the likes of this race.
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Given the probable good weather forecast Cracksman is a very unlikely runner unless the weathermen have got it spectacularly wrong. Should Gosden have a change of heart and Cracksman does run he'd be a short price fav given the inferior field; stablemates Crystal Ocean and Poets Word are hotties, but a surprise cannot be totally discounted, I think.
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There’s a chance of thunderstorms
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A thunder storm or a massive deluge would be a godsend (to me, antepost wise) and those who'd like to see the best horses competing this being the King George, but I'd doubt that very much as the precipitation forecast for the course is next to negligible.
This year's renewal is poor! |
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Well there's at least one horse still in the race that has run faster than Cracksman ever has (disregarding wfa). Would've still liked to see Cracksman run though just to take a slice of the mug money
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