Irish Derby (30th)

pipe down about Masar he already beat SW fair and square. it's years since a non-Ballydoyle Derby winner went to the Curragh

He’s a pocket talking ****.

Think most people would see the Eclipse as the tougher option for a 3yo. I certainly do this year and would take the chicken option of running him at the Curragh if it was my choice.

Surely a Classic more important than a bookie sponsored G1.
I'd gone Currant,spank AOB again if think he's the best colt...
Proven the point.

Curragh even.lol.

What a total fkin bellend the OP is

I'd not be interested in having a bet until the final decs - need to know which AOB horses line up, who rides what, form a view on possible tactics etc.

The post Queens Vase media questions focused on the St Leger for Kew Gardens but Mr O'Brien made unsolicited mention of the Irish Derby as a possible target for him on at least one occasion.

I've not given up on Knight To Behold either - I'd expect him to prove he's better than he showed at Epsom at some point.

I think Godolphin have more sense than money eg supplementing Old Persian - what for? I hope AOB runs at least two others than Saxon Warrior (SW) in case he does not stay 12f well eg The Pentagon and/or Kew Gardens, and possibly Delano Roosevelt (tenderly ridden at Royal Ascot) but present Curragh ground could be a negative though for him.

Masar has ample opportunities eg Champion Stakes for 10f contests; chicken behaviour or commercial value induced from Godolphin.

impossible123
26 Jun 18 15:06
I think Godolphin have more sense than money eg supplementing Old Persian - what for?

PMSL

He can’t even get his idiom right.

possibly Delano Roosevelt (tenderly ridden at Royal Ascot)

impossible123,

Have you seen the video ? If not, watch it and come back and tell me it was tenderly ridden. I don't wish to appear to be having a pop at you, but some of your posts are getting to be comical. Good luck.

but some of your posts are getting to be comical.

You`re too kind Andrew in Sweden, Bungle is a complete bowler hat.

Feltfair,

I'm Cornish and live in Sweden, a good combination that never gets worked up LOL

I don't have anything against imp123 personally, but his style of posting is strange to say the least. He changes his mind more than my ex-wife and that's why she is an ex. Any news that comes out of a top stable in the RP and he can't wait to post it.

I remember reading his Epsom Derby 2016 thread, if you are ever feeling down, just read it. I think he tips up just about every runner over the course of the thread, even including a couple of AOB fillies when the stable had decent colts running, but the funniest thing was he also mentioned Blue Vega ....... the same one that we all know as a 5f/6f sprinter

My issue is his constant criticism of Ryan Moore which is beyond ignorance.

This is the video of Delano Roosevelt .....

https://www.racinguk.com/results/170889-king-edward-vii-stakes-group-2-1

I certainly wouldn't call that tenderly handled but let's agree to disgree.

The horse had no chance of winning at the furlong pole but RM at least tried to make some headway (and did). It's too slow anyway.

SW is not a certainty for Saturday by any means, but my idea of the winner and i've already backed him at best price on here (4.9) albiet only for £56 (that's all there was up at the time). I guess someone thought he was going to be a NR. Good luck.

Check the clock Delano Roosevelt is just not good enough.

Sax was matched at 'evens' for a short period. I'll not back the two Godolphin horses but might back one of the AOB's eg Kew Gardens or Delano Roosevelt to cause an upset. But if 'evens' on raceday for Sax would be difficult to resist for most, I'd imagine.

Saxon Warrior matched between 1.5 and 5.0 for Irish Derby

1.5            £723
1.51            £400
1.56            £7
1.57            £60
1.58            £36
1.59            £46
1.6            £19
1.61            £189
1.62    £55        £198
1.63            £52
1.64    £240        £422
1.65            £309
1.66            £74
1.67    £116        £300
1.68    £57        £69
1.69    £1        £53
1.7            £324
1.71            £121
1.72            £405
1.73            £394
1.74            £190
1.75            £20
1.77            £3
1.78            £212
1.79            £461
1.8            £163
1.9            £218
1.91            £8
1.95        £16    £180
1.96        £18   
1.97        £100   
1.98        £100   
1.99        £100    £8
2        £45    £9
2.06            £34
2.1            £20
2.12            £31
2.2            £154
2.22            £35
2.3        £3    £40
2.32        £3   
2.34        £3   
2.36        £3   
2.38        £3   
2.4        £3    £35
2.42        £3    £23
2.44        £3   
2.46        £3   
2.48        £3   
2.5        £3    £268
2.52        £3    £93
2.54        £3    £2
2.56        £3    £6
2.58        £3   
2.6            £261
2.62            £452
2.64            £150
2.7            £50
2.72        £2    £3
2.76            £14
3.2            £40
3.25            £20
3.35            £20
3.4            £200
3.45            £12
3.85            £200
4.9            £200
5            £16

AOB is fielding 3 others along with Sax ie Delano Roosevelt (DR), Rostropovich and The Pentagon; Rostropovich or The Pentagon as pacesetters most likely because DR takes time to get going from what he's shown so far. This could be run to suit DR for a change.

is old persian running?

couldn't have saxon warrior with stolen money, especially after impossible described it as a "penalty kick"

that's the curse of death if ever there was one

isn't impossible just an o'brien worshipping donkey? never come across anyone more clueless (or annoying) in my life.

says he doesn't understand why godolphin would supplement old persian, maybe because they can afford to, unlike you who is probably existing in some bedsit somewhere living off a diet of baked beans and diet coke, with aiden posters plastered on the walls.

Could not possibly back Saxon Warrior at odds on, I can see why he is such a short price, not on form but on Aiden's record in the race but it's a race I can give a miss as nothing excites me in the market.

Expect the fav to win but with the going being on the firm side I’ve thrown a tenner away on The Pentagon @ 33/1.

Obviously if SW is back to his Guineas form he wins. If, however, he runs to his Derby form (and personally I think that's more likely) then he's very beatable. The trouble is, fav aside, this is another mediocre renewal of the race. By my reckoning there are only 2 horses that have run fast enough to beat SW's Derby form. One is O'Brien's The Pentagon, who appears to have completely lost it this year. The other is obviously Dee Ex Bee who finished ahead of SW at Epsom. The trouble with him, for me, is the yard. If there has ever been a yard whose horses fail more than Johnston's to back up a good effort I don't think I've seen it. Natalie's Joy being a recent example. So I wouldn't want to pin all my hopes on his runner. There's still a possibility that one of the others will show enough improvement on the day and there's even a chance that SW will slip further into decline. All considered I'd still rather be a layer of SW at odds on than a backer and that's the way I intend to play it.

old persian for me figs. feel the galloping track will be right up his street, the fact they are running him here so quickly after royal ascot is a pointer in itself.

godolphin already won one derby and this one is a similar price that masar was at epsom.

I expect him to win this very comfortably and then be trained for the Arc.

hope so, would be a further boost for the boys in blue

Continue posting your opinions impossible123. You never insult anyone in the face of infantile comments from people who know **** all about the game. Something I find hard not to.

I didn't make myself clear, I'm referring to Saxon Warrior in case there was any confusion.

Try My Best - Respect your opinion, but it takes a considerable leap of faith to assume that those who criticise Imp123 know f*** all about the game. Still you can always give way to temptation and insult those whose comments you find infantile. You could start a debate that you might want to take part in.

Glad you respect my opinion. Believe me no great leap of faith at all.

I know jack, just kidding mate

blockbrain, try my worst and impossiblydumb 123, the axis of stupidity

TMB - have you actually read this thread?  Why not pick out an "infantile" post re IMP123 and challenge it.  It's simple really, unless you don't want a debate.

Lewisham - there is an old saying. Keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer. You need this advice as you seem to get the two confused.

I'm still to be convinced 12f is the optimum trip for Saxon Warrior and don't completely buy the comments about him being all at sea on the track at Epsom - reading some of the comments from connections before the start of the season, they did n't sound wholly convinced that 12f would be his best trip either.

I assume the pace will be decent courtesy of Rostropovich and if he does n't set it, I expect SDS will send Dee Ex Bee forward (I've reservations about the ground for him)

So I've chanced Knight To Behold and Platinum Warrior against the field - I can see the case for The Pentagon too but he's had one poor run too many for me.

Good luck!

Saxon Warrior is the winner for me.

It's not a strong field by any means. He's the classiest, acts on the track, the only group I winner, 3lb ahead of the 2nd favourite Dee Ex Bee, 10 lb and more ahead of the rest, excuses for Epsom and AOB (a superb record in the race) has several runners to control the tactics/pace.

What I love about imp123 is the way he just keeps going regardless  of what anyone calls him
or says to him. He's well-mannered, oblivious, or having a laugh. I think he might be a wind-up.

Carlo Biraghi could be overpriced .

Horse racing is only a game at the end of the day,...insignificance to the majority whose lives are richer and multifaceted; opinions aplenty and are most welcome if not abusive and infantile. Old fashioned, cantankerous and infantile behaviour I do not tolerate and/or accept on a forum like this one, simple.

As such, the "ignore" facility (here) is 2nd best to the NHS for those who need it, I firmly believe. And I used that facility (here) regularly, and religiously with great satisfaction. Remember, it's only a game after all.

Tw*t

gawd help us he's turned philosopher now. what a complete and utter tool

well called on the lay figgis

Point proven. Not one of u even mentioned the winner pmsl. What a bunch of pricks u lot are

Did you!

As I have been saying for over a year The Pentagon has Leger written all over him.

Not one of u even mentioned the winner

I did on my lay thread, but didn't back it

Lost on SW, but layed Delano for 3TBP

Well done, Donnacha and Joseph O'Brien. What a win for the brothers so early in their respective careers.

Sax had every chance but just was not good enough, and outstayed, I firmly believe; Sax will no doubt be down in trip for his next race. But could he turn up for the Eclipse after this defeat? A bit too soon perhaps as the race is next weekend, but Masar could be the carrot though.

Godolphin will rue the day for fearing one horse ie Sax. Both their representatives finished out of the frame; 200k euro down the swanny.

I don't think he was outstayed, he has given them a lead in a slowly run race and was closing all the way to the line. I think Figgis is right that he has regressed since the Guineas. He should have easily gone past the front two even with the slow pace if he was as good as he looked like being after the Guineas but he was one-paced from a long way out.

Maybe he can find his Guineas form again after a break or something but that was a very disappointing run.

have to remember that these colts are not regarded as mature so it could be that like Churchill SW peaked early and just hasn't improved much

I will not make anymore excuses for Sax over 12f - just not good enough or stayed well enough. But, I'll back him over 8f against Without Parole on good ground (not fast) - shame he did not run in the St James'. I'll back him over Masar and/or Roaring Lion in the Juddmonte as the Eclipse next week is too soon after this defeat.

His connections only had his breeding potential and commercial value in their minds when they went for this race instead of The Eclipse next weekend, similarly Godolphin with Masar.

I wouldn't back him at a short price until he shows his best form again. He wouldn't have gone past them over 8 or 10 furlongs today.

I keep reading various posters talking about Saxon Warrior getting back to his "Guineas form" or regressing from his "Guineas form". 

Guineas form subsequently (at a mile, as the race was run over a mile after all)

Tip Two Win - stuffed at Ascot
Elarqam - stuffed at Curragh
Gustav Klimt - beaten twice

Add in a few horses that also got stuffed in the Jersey and it's only Expert Eye that has come out and done something over a similar trip- and the Ascot Expert Eye clearly wasn't the Newmarket one.

So what's this "Guineas form" then?  If it's beating Tip Two Win by a length and a half I'm still watching the same Saxon Warrior you all saw at Newmarket.

Never understand it when horses getting "stuffed" next time are put up as a reason why the original form was poor. Unless the argument being put forward is that the horses ran to the same form in both performances, which would seem a strange viewpoint.

And that's from someone who said after the Guineas that I thought it was just about the worst winning performance in the last 10 years. I still think it is but there's no doubt at all that SW hasn't run to anywhere near the same mark since.

I'd not dismiss 2000G form just yet given the performances of Masar and Roaring Lion in the Derby; Expert Eye was running over 1f shorter, and against much inferior opponents and faster ground. Similarly, Gustav Klimt appreciated the faster ground at Royal Ascot too more than Tip Two Win, and was also much fitter when running against Without Parole.

I'd be more inclined to infer Sax is more of an 8f (fast pace) and/or 10f horse than 12f, and the two Derbies went a long way to confirm that, I firmly believe.

Do you think he would have gone past them today over 10 furlongs? He didn't look the same horse today from a long way out, that extra gear seemed to be missing and I don't think the trip was to blame.

I very much believe so if over 10f; connections put commercial values before horse's staying ability. Donnacha has been proven correct with his comments immediately post Sax's 2000G victory ie 10f.

I think Sax is a better horse than Cliff Of Moher or US Army Ranger on Derby form and others. Also, a cooler environment would help too.

He was perfectly positioned in a slowly run race. He travelled well but when asked for his effort he didn't quicken in the way he has in the past, he just sort of stayed on at one pace all the way to the line gradually closing the gap. The spark seemed to be missing.

If you didn't know the horse's previous form and was watching him for the first time, you would not say that was the run of a top class 8/10 furlong horse that hasn't stayed. He just looked mediocre today.

WD layers, personally thought the bubble had burst at epsom for SW, couldnt really understand why he was
so popular for this race after epsom. everyone seemed to think the irish derby would be a "penalty kick"

I'd not say Sax is top class, and neither are Masar, Roaring Lion, etc, until they have done battles with their elders eg Cracksman, Enable or Poet's Word. I think they just another bunch of mediocre milers similar to last year's colts.

Sax could well be the best of his generation over 8f and possibly 10f (yet to be proven obviously), but over 12f he'll win no Group 1 races like the King George or Arc.

Considering Rostropovich was running a week after Royal Ascot I'd not conclude the winner Latrobe is anything special either; Dee Ex Bee, I've never considered to be top notch either - whose only claim to fame was finished behind Masar in the Derby and who himself had been beaten several times prior.

Another much of a muchness lot this season.

I wouldn't write him off just yet over any trip. A Epsom I think he had a valid excuse but today he should have beaten this lot from the position he was in but just didn't show the speed I would have expected to go past them. Hopefully he can show improved form after a rest as it's disappointing when a horse you believe could be top class fails to progress to that level.

Not so many Group 1 10f races in the UK/GB calendar in the near term (Eclipse apart) so Saxon will go the Juddmonte at York or wait for the Irish Champion.

I suspect it will be the Juddmonte.

I hope Sax shows up at the Juddmonte on 24th August. I'm annoyed connections ran him here rather than The Eclipse next weekend as I believe (after Epsom) 10f would be his trip; no Cracksman and possibly no Enable either could be a good opportunity to redeem himself (I hope).