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unclepuncle
24 Jun 18 10:05
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 5,280 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With Royal Ascot over I thought it might be time to start a thread on next years first Classic.

Calyx is now a best price 6/1 following his very impressive Coventry Stakes win, but for all I respect his connections such flashy types rarely train on, and if they do they tend to be sprinters.
Think of Carravagio, Three Valleys, Dilum etc. Having said that the breeding on the dams side suggest a mile+ would be his trip next year so maybe he is just a freak. 
The two horses he beat at Ascot, Advertise and Sergei Prokofiev deserve respect but both are speedily bred and unlikely to want a mile next year.

Not sure anything else at Ascot looked a future Guineas winner for all that it was heartwarming when Arthur Kitt won the Chesham. To my eyes the horse to take out of that race for the near future (July meeting, Goodword, York etc) was the 4th horse Beyond Reason.

One horse that did leave a lasting impression on me last week ran at Newmarket on Friday evening.
Quorto, trained by Charlie Appleby, was well backed through the day against a well touted Stoute horse who had run very promisingly on it's debut, and he ran out a very impressive winner.

By Dubawi he is the first foal of Volume who was placed in both the English and Irish Oaks (beaten just half a length in the latter) so on breeding one would think 10-12f would be his trip but he looked very sharp on Friday and I'd expect some of the better 7f races would be on the agenda this season (maybe the Superlative Stakes at the July meeting next, or the Salario at sandwon which they won with Masar last year?).
My only note of caution is that I have been impressed with a few Godolphin first time out winners, especially on the Newmarket July course, down the years and they have never gone on to do much.

He's 33/1 with BetVic.
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Report Figgis May 3, 2019 3:54 PM BST
*where would you
Report FOYLESWAR May 3, 2019 4:09 PM BST
ah lewisham you saw it too ! was begining to think it was just me and was i imagining things.  on the replays of his debut mg impressed me  with that turn of foot  to me it looked electric at the time and inspired me to put him up on the other thread . no one else seemed to notice it and i thought maybe i wasnt reading it right ,it looked to me like he went from 4th or 5th to lead in about 20-30 strides .is that how you saw it ,may be he went past trees  but i was impressed by what i saw . i will have another look .
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 4:19 PM BST
Figgis, I don't think he would win it on probability but you can say that about most of the runners in here.
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 4:24 PM BST
foyles yes I was very impressed at the time, although I regard the guineas as a very open race. unlike some on here Wink
Report Figgis May 3, 2019 4:28 PM BST
I'd have him 4th, with Roaring Lion being below form and Masar as well, to a lesser degree. Obviously I don't expect everything to run to the pound and I certainly didn't expect Tip Two Win figure in the finish, so there will probably be one or two surprises this year. MG might well improve but he needs to just to win even a poor renewal.

you can say that about most of the runners in here

I'd say TS would've won it by 3 lengths, if he stays of course Wink
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 4:54 PM BST
I might follow you in figs mate. your enthusiasm is infectious.

not worried about the rain?
Report Figgis May 3, 2019 5:08 PM BST
I wouldn't bother about a few showers, it usually takes more than that to turn the ground here. Wouldn't like to see it soft though. From memory I think the last time was Camelot's Guineas, so it doesn't happen too often. I know the general thinking is that if his stamina is suspect then soft ground won't help. I'm not too sure about that as I think he will either stay or he won't and I'd just be concerned as I don't know how well he acts on soft. He was ok on slowish ground in his Gp3 but proper soft would be an unknown.
Report kincsem May 3, 2019 5:11 PM BST
Forecast breeze from the left of 18 knots (20.7 mph) will probably be a hindrance to those drawn high.
Report FELTFAIR May 3, 2019 5:33 PM BST
Been raining the last two hours in Newmarket.
Report harry callaghan May 3, 2019 5:52 PM BST
from a handicapping point of view for me i have ten sovereigns a mile in front, his second win at the curragh was even better than his his newmarket run imo...its a desperately disappointing affair for me with the 3 good horses from last year not running and i've got it very tight handicapping wise, so have sat on the fence really as the ante post market has been loopy on here tbh

anyway the only 2 that interested me class wise were advertise and ten sovereigns and i have ten sovereigns clear best in fact i have him as the only legitimate group 1 horse in the race...i have to say i'm in camp that thinks he is very good but still think quorto was a monster and we've been denied, in all fairness when a top class juvenile doesn't turn out in the dewhurst you have be worried something is wrong and it clearly was with him

am desperately worried about stamina for ten sovereigns but really he is racing against group 3/2 at best 3 year olds here and he has a great chance, however it will only be a saver for me

advertise has wrangled me for weeks as he actually was big on here a few weeks ago but he also concerned me stamina wise, he has a cracking attitude, so has his chance but i cannot get excited about the price so have passed him over and not lightly but i'm a tad with figgis in regards him training on...who knows but i just cannot take the odds on him so so many doubts...the trainer continues to be in desperate form

i have to say i really liked persian king if he'd ran, not because i believed he was a superstar more that i thought he'd make a decent 3 year old and he had a way about him that i just liked and imo he won cosy against magna grecia for me and the rider was at pains to not take him deep in the red in that race but it was only group 3/2 form, anyway i'll be interested to see him this season as a decent 3 year old milers look thin on the ground...

i don't buy this magna grecia here at 5/1 in fact i think it is a horrible price, however with a lot of doubts he has to have his chance and i have to respect him i just don't want to bow to it and if ten sovereigns bombs which is very possible from a handicapping point of view i suppose yes he has a decent chance

a few horses are interesting obviously al hillali who i thought could be anything, had a little check for the derby thinking i'd be interested at 33 and find him at the deplorable price of 14/1...thanks but no thanks, keep the nonsense

anyway it's wrangled me for days in fact i feel ill backing the horse that i've backed from a barn i don't trust betting wise and on a class front he basically i think is a group 2/3 horse who would need to go to germany to win a guineas but i'm afraid i just feel he hasn't got as much to find if the 2 horses bomb

i have him down as a massive improver in his grade and do see more progress, also in my decision making is the tad of rain that is arriving, anyway i've backed great scot and yes he can't win can he?? but i just think he is a classy individual here, in with these horses and i just can't pass him over

please don't argue the magna grecia thing on his doncaster running, he basically pulled like a pig with a wide trip in that doncaster race in fact he's pulled like a pig in most of his races, which is clearly a problem and he will have to drop the bit here if he is going to give his running but is at least progressive.

i got the impression at newbury that they have clearly worked on his keeness and he looked in desperate need of the run in the greenham which i thought was an ok race for the grade and he rode the horse like it was a trail, he hit the line strong and basically he has just wanted a well run race in order to drop the bit, now i will argue he isn't good enough but he improved a huge amount last year and i think he is even better this year, he will need to step forward and ten sovereigns to flop in order to win but the way i've handicapped them id dismissing ten sovereigns and advertise because of reasons i've said, then this becomes a tight knit handicap and i like a tight knit handicap, i've got him 4/5th best...anyway i've wagered him and am hoping he can progress but i certainly don't rate him a mug horse in this company but he may just not be good enough...if he can settle off of a good gallop i'm hoping he can run well, however class will in all probability be his undoing

a desperate guineas
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 6:09 PM BST
rain is putting me off ten sovereigns... all in royal marine! topical winner with the rain Wink
Report Figgis May 3, 2019 6:19 PM BST
Forecast looks ok, if it can be trusted.
Report morpteh mackem May 3, 2019 8:04 PM BST
newmarket drains well too ( chalk based )
Report penzance May 3, 2019 8:24 PM BST
people are talking as though Magna Grecia can't
improve on what he's achieved.
Horse has had only 3 runs,winning a GP1 within
a month of his debut.
Report impossible123 May 3, 2019 8:28 PM BST
I'm not overly concerned about the opposition if the Magna Grecia of last season turns up fit...the draw could be problemo, to coin a phrase from Arnold.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 3, 2019 8:56 PM BST
The big day tomorrow, so here is my take on Ten Sovereigns in the 2000 Guineas.

I've been a massive fan even since his debut at the Curragh in late August. I didn't back him that day (I actually laid the 4/1 fav for a few drinks) but watched LV with interest as he had been mentioned positively by AOB earlier in the season, in fact he was considered a Royal Ascot possible. What i saw was very impressive to say the least and i knew instantly he was well above average even at that stage.

I didn't have long to wait for his next run (7 days later) when he was thrust into Group 3 company over the same CD. I posted a summary on my last lay thread why i thought he was a good thing that day and backed him to win a nice few bob at odds around 4/9 and 2/5 (sorry to aftertime but it's all on the thread pre-race). I never had a moments worry in the race, as soon as Donnacha pressed the button the race was over.

A few weeks later i backed him again, ante-post to win the Middle park and decided to go over to UK for the race. I met a couple of forum posters there including Ed Thompson (flash bookie on here) and he kindly gave me a good price to another decent bet. He wasn't so impressive (Ten Sovereigns, not Ed) in winning as he had been, but in my eyes never looked like losing.

His form reads well, winning by 7L in a maiden on debut over 6f and his last two furlong sectionals and overall time 1min 11.41 sec (slow by 0.01 sec) were impressive, there wasn't anything that day that got close to the standard time, in fact the next race (a nursery over the same 6f) was won in a time that was 1.54 slow and the horse was carrying 4lb less than Ten Sovereigns. It was a group class performance without question, one which gave him a RPR of 103 (if i remember correctly Timeform gave him 105). 

It was a case of deja vu in his next race over the same CD, this time in the 6f Round Tower Stakes (Group 3) winning by 3.75L and yet again his sectionals and overall time were good, even on the softer ground, 1 min 12.02 sec (slow by 0.62 sec). This was just 7 days after his previous race and he was given a RPR of 113.

On both occasions he stayed on very strongly.

He was understandably given a break and aimed for the Middle Park. It looked a two horse race on paper and it proved to be just that in the end, but it's worth pointing out that winners of the Molecomb, Gimcrack, Anglesey and Cornwallis stakes (all Group races) finished well behind the front two.

The runner up Jash is a good horse rated 119 (won his previous race by 9L) but Ten Sovereigns was always holding him and the pair drew right away from the field.

Ten Sovereigns had won by 7L and 3.75L previously and this was the first time he had to really 'race', it was a new experience for him and he was green when challenged. Also the first time he had run on good/firm. Yet again the time was good and comparing standards, almost on a par with the year older Wissahickon who won the Cambridgeshire 40 minutes later (abeit the latter carried 5 lb more).

The breeding is obviously a quandry, we all know that, and being sired by No Nay Never, sprinting immediately jumps off the page, but there is a silver lining. The dam Seeking Solace never raced under a mile, won over 10f and was runner up over 11f. The dam-sire Exceed And Excel also provides a little comfort, even though he was a sprinter himself, but has sired decent milers Excelebration, James Garfield and Heavy Metal to name a few.

Of course he could turn out to be a sprinter, no more, albeit a good one and even Donnacha stated after the Newmarket race "He’s fast and a natural sprinter". His class may be enough to win even if he doesn't stay 8f well, only time will tell.

The good/firm ground will be in his favour. 

He's the best horse in the race (BHA 120/RPR 134) and has the best form by far. He's won on the course. His main challenger (in my opinion) is staying in France. He travels well, has a high crusing speed and a turn of foot (watch his first two races).

I would have backed him to beat Too Darned Hot and Calyx.

Sorry Figgis, i don't think he has a stone in hand as you suggest Wink

As stated before several times on several threads, i think he's good, and could be very good.

Good luck.
Report penzance May 3, 2019 9:01 PM BST
excellent post.
   GL
Report Figgis May 3, 2019 9:13 PM BST
Sorry Figgis, i don't think he has a stone in hand as you suggest

Jesus, this stone in hand thing again Laugh. I said he had a stone in hand of his stablemate on last season's form, actually I said he had 16lbs in hand Wink, about 5 lengths over this distance on the likely ground.

He does NOT have a stone in hand of Advertise. If the Advertise of the Coventry Stakes turns up he'd only have about a length in hand. It's just that I'm not sure if Advertise ran above himself that day, or whether he'll train on plus I think he's more of a sprinter.

I haven't got the rest running with a stone of TS. Most of the opposition are slow, slower than I usually see in an average Guineas. However there is bound to be one or two capable of showing some improvement on the day. Nevertheless, if TS stays then I'd be very surprised if anything apart from Advertise could get even close to him.
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 9:46 PM BST
have gone for al hilalee, admittedly without confidence. doesn't sound like a guineas winner does it Crazy

but just don't fancy the O'Brien horses, whatever confidence Figgis has. sometimes you have to go with your gut, and mine is pretty big Wink

still although you can't trust godolphin, think the dark horse element is quite powerful here, as the proven horses seem extremely ordinary.
Report Figgis May 3, 2019 9:56 PM BST
a desperate guineas

This

the proven horses seem extremely ordinary

And this. I concur Silly
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 10:27 PM BST
the more I think about this al hilalee, the more confident I feel

just looking at the race, I think a lot of these are potential non-stayers. not just ten sovereigns- a few from the craven etc also look dubious for stamina

feel with the guineas it's generally won by a stouter stayer- not just an out and out miler. often won by a horse that ultimately gets tried at ten furlongs or more

Churchill being a prime example of this, starts off as a miler and eventually aiden turns him into a 10 furlong horse

also you can rule out a lot of the exposed horses as simply not being good enough
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 10:29 PM BST
sorry should have added al hilalee a guaranteed stayer- by dubawi out of an authorized mare
Report lewisham ranger May 3, 2019 11:35 PM BST
my rough approximation of the leading contenders:

advertise- just don't fancy him at all

madhmoon- feel he'll fail for stamina... some of his runs last year looked like a bit of a short runner for me, but big chance if gets the trip. the sexy horse for many

skardu- half fancy this horse. v impressive first time up showing a brilliant turn of speed, and then won the craven. form being knocked but an inexperienced horse can do no more than win. a lot depends on what haggis has left to work on.

royal marine- solid and a battler. but seems a bit of a plodder. feel he may need further in time.

ten sovereigns/magna grecia- just don't fancy the O'Brien horses. just a feeling I have that he won't win this year- happy to be proved wrong but rarely bet against my instincts

great scot- a lot of those in the know are tipping him up but just don't fancy him

set piece- seemed to run out of steam at the end of the craven. hard to imagine him confirming the form with royal marine who was given a very tender ride.

kick on- surely fails on the class angle. this is a bad guineas but not that bad.

al hilalee- my idea of the winner. likely to make up into a top class three year old and in a race where they probably will only be a few lengths between some well-matched three year olds (even if figgis says different) his extra stamina might prove decisive. feel he may need further as well but as a guess I'm going to say he has more brilliance than royal marine.

the rest don't look good enough.

think might double dutch skardu- al hilalee, well in truth already backed both but might go in again
Report De_man May 4, 2019 3:00 AM BST
I want to back TS but putting Ryan up taking the value out and think they now put Donnacha up on the better fancied one so that worries me that the ladz think may not stay despite some solace on the dams side :)
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2019 1:12 PM BST
Been persisting down again this morning in Newmarket.
Report penzance May 4, 2019 3:41 PM BST
some plodder that.
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2019 3:42 PM BST
Not bad for a slow old boat.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 3:45 PM BST
false race. form will never hold up
Report harry callaghan May 4, 2019 3:46 PM BST
wd winners...a complete golden highway there but anyway the winner won well
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 4, 2019 3:47 PM BST
I got that one wrong, but a worthy win by his stablemate even though it was a strange race.

Well done winners.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 3:49 PM BST
not in a million years a worthy winner
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 3:49 PM BST
won a 3 horse race with a 250/1 shot in 2nd
Report unclepuncle May 4, 2019 3:50 PM BST
unclepuncle
02 May 19 12:22

Will we get another huge bias towards the stand rail as in most New'Mkt meetings over recent years.

Naturally my only bet Madhmoon is drawn in stall 1 furthest out. Might as well rip the virtual ticket up all ready.


All too obvious unfortunately.CryCryCry
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2019 3:52 PM BST
The clock rarely lies Harry.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 3:52 PM BST
ffs uncle, unlucky. a joke of a race
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 4, 2019 3:58 PM BST
not in a million years a worthy winner

Charlton in the context of sport yes, but i accept it was a messy race and those on the nearside rail had an advantage.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 4:06 PM BST
not the best horse in the race and hence not a worthy/deserving winner. The effect of the draw is 5 lengths minimum. would have been 6th to 10th.
Report harry callaghan May 4, 2019 4:11 PM BST
hopefully you had the clock running for the 2 groups felt
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2019 4:19 PM BST
Grin
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 4:27 PM BST
Well done winners. An unsatisfactory race but no excuse for TS. Yes I would've liked more cover and to be on the stand side but he was never staying anyway. I did say that if TS didn't stay then nothing would surprise me as the rest were all so far behind him, but in view of how well MG did it I was prepared to say I'd got him wrong or he's improved again. The 66/1 casts doubt on the form but I'm always willing to accept one like that ran above itself rather than bring down the whole race to suit. However, it's still quite early in the card but a quick time comparison definitely brings down the level of the form. It will probably seem like sour grapes but I think this Guineas could be right down there with the likes of the Island Sands race.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 4:30 PM BST
Figgis, the problem of any analysis using this race is that there were only 3 runners. but given the proximity of 3/4/5 to one another, this would be a very poor renewal.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 4:32 PM BST
Charlton, glad I'm at least not on my own in that view. We'll get another day to oppose this form. If he does it again however we'll just have to hold our hands up Wink
Report harry callaghan May 4, 2019 4:40 PM BST
felt quite funny
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 4:40 PM BST
he won't Grin
Report penzance May 4, 2019 4:41 PM BST
winner was going right away at the end.
Think he'd of won drawn over the otherside
myself,traveeled well throughout the race.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 4:42 PM BST
Particularly well done to Foyleswar though who called it at an early stage. Whatever the merit of the form he got the winner and the value and that's what counts.
Report penzance May 4, 2019 4:58 PM BST
the winners won 3/4 now,2 GP1s.Only horse
to beat him is Persian King who won easily
on his seasonal debut.Would'nt be too quick
to knock him,even with todays draw.
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2019 5:11 PM BST
thanks figgis  gracious  words .its nice when it pans out ,good  debate and input on the thread which is what its all about .
Report impossible123 May 4, 2019 5:28 PM BST
Magna Grecia is 4/7 to repeat her English 2000G triumph in the Irish version on 25th May. The question is will he run again in the Epsom Derby on 1st June just a week later? He was as low as 5 but just matched at 26 (here).
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 5:32 PM BST
Guineas only .8 faster than the 3yo handicap supports earlier thoughts.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 5:58 PM BST
Think he'd of won drawn over the otherside
myself,traveeled well throughout the race


Watching it again I'd agree with that. I had MG a few pounds ahead of Skardu and Madhmoon and even with their positional disadvantage I didn't see enough there to say they would've beaten him. I'm sure they would've finished closer than they did though and still feel at this stage that it's very poor form indeed for a Guineas. So wouldn't disagree that the best horse over the trip on the day won, I'll just be surprised if that level of form stands up in future Gp1s.
Report penzance May 4, 2019 6:38 PM BST
Maybe Skurdu is the one to take out of this.
Put alot more daylight between himself and
Momkin from the Craven run.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 6:51 PM BST
What I'll take out of this is if a horse has only ran as far as 6f then not to start guessing if it'll stay a mile judged on its appearance and style of running, as I'm obviously rubbish at it Crazy
Report penzance May 4, 2019 7:03 PM BST
9/4 jolly,not the only one.
   GL
Report impossible123 May 4, 2019 7:18 PM BST
Haggas reckoned Skardu has had a hard race, and the plan would be to go straight to Ascot; Madhmoon is in the Derby thus unlikely for a renewal with Magna Grecia either; Ten Sovereigns will be dropped in trip, and back to sprinting next.
Report penzance May 4, 2019 7:36 PM BST
3 Godolphin owned runners were shocking.
Report Howellsy May 4, 2019 7:42 PM BST
Best thing about this forum is when knowledgeable punters put their necks on the line. The worst thing is certain prolific posters' platitudes. Anyway, I've watched the race and done my figures and I look forward to seeing how bravely MG is layed in Ireland. Charlton, I presume you'll be going 2-1 on the day? Best time for several years. I have him 1lb below Dawn Approach. Cracking performance. The mid-track runners were clearly nothing special. I look forward to Ten Sovs beating Calyx in the commonwealth.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 7:55 PM BST
Best time for several years

Howellsy, how have you arrived at that given the times of the 5f, 6f and other 8f race on the card?

I look forward to Ten Sovs beating Calyx in the commonwealth


You're more confident than me, I have them dead level. Where I would possibly give the edge to Calyx is his comeback left little doubt that he was capable of running as well as he did last year. I have it just a few pounds short of his best and would expect him to reach that level when pushed more next time. There's no doubt TS didn't stay today but we still don't know for sure if he's as good as he was.
Report Howellsy May 4, 2019 8:34 PM BST
Pogo should be perfectly capable of a decent time in a handicap - was highly tried last year and had a class edge. Of course he wouldn't have run that quick had he been in the Guineas under that sort of pressure from such a long way out. The other two races look fine to me - Moyassar must be pretty good to win that off top weight. We have different methodologies, Figgis, that's for sure.
Report harry callaghan May 4, 2019 8:41 PM BST
figgis do you think ten sovereigns would of won at any trip?? i thought he gave no real running myself considering his believed ability. everyone will have there own view of course
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 8:44 PM BST
We have different methodologies, Figgis, that's for sure

Yes that's true and fair enough. I haven't done anything unusual with the going allowance this time though. I agree with you that Dawn Approach ran the fastest Guineas since Frankel. I think we both allowed for the later rain whereas most didn't. But if MG is only 1lb below him that means you would have Pogo running a time only around 13lbs behind Dawn Approach, who as we agree put up a great Guineas time. Different pace in the Guineas or not that just doesn't seem credible.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 8:57 PM BST
figgis do you think ten sovereigns would of won at any trip?

The honest answer is I just don't know Harry. It's easier to know with a front runner like Mozart was, as you can see what he had earlier on in the race. However when a horse is restrained somewhat and not allowed to use its natural pace in the part of the race when it's at its strongest I think it can be deceptive. I think it was Stravinsky where I wasn't entirely sure until he was dropped back, and there have been others like that. So I wouldn't say he hasn't trained on but the jury is still out. I'd also bear in mind that O'Brien has probably been trying to train him for the mile, so that may have had an effect on what we saw.
Report Howellsy May 4, 2019 9:29 PM BST
It's become credible to me Figgis. I've found speed figures are class- and pace-sensitive to a huge extent. Handicappers routinely get in the 70s but I hardly ever give more than a 90 even in a group 1.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 9:42 PM BST
Ok. I have it as slightly the worst time Guineas since I've been doing my own figures, 1lb slower than Island Sands. I have him improving 2lbs on his efforts last season. It might seem like I'm stubbornly trying to do the horse down but I have no interest in trying to prove a previous opinion was right about a horse. I'm only interested in getting it right for the future. I've changed negative opinions about many in the past when I believe they've improved, such as The Fugue, Found and Cracksman. I can't rate the race any higher without coming up with too many implausible figures for the other races.

If his next race is the Irish version then even though I rate him low, the dilemma is he will probably face many of the same runners, or runners not considered good enough for Newmarket so it's whether to oppose him on those terms. I still think I would though at a short price, as there can only be so long he can get away with that sort of form in Gp1s.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 10:02 PM BST
Best time for several years

walofs
Report penzance May 4, 2019 10:09 PM BST
don't agree then? Laugh
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 10:13 PM BST
so much easier than having to go through the golden highway argument which invalidates all times, all form, all analysis etc, so I chose the lazy way out and in three weeks time we'll see that the form today is meaningless
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 10:25 PM BST
Charlton, I wouldn't say the form is meaningless, just very poor for the grade. Comparing the times doesn't suggest that those on the rail had their performance enhanced in any way. The time for the winner is comparatively moderate, whereas you'd expect it to be artificially fast. If anything it was that those on the other part of the track were hindered, or maybe a few just ran poorly on the day. Many of them are just no good anyway.
Report Charlton2005 May 4, 2019 10:30 PM BST
Figgis, you guys do times and I do trips. I can tell you that was a falsely run race and hence the form will not work out. I will lay 70% of my bank on that come 25 may
Report lewisham ranger May 4, 2019 11:09 PM BST
absolutely pathetic what I did there, ended up backing five horses in the end, and didn't have a penny on the horse I instinctively thought would win. I won't even blame Figgis for leading me astray with all his garbage talk of a stone in hand and magna grecia being a slowboat.

just go with your instincts. I knew when the horse won his maiden, that he was a serious tool. I have a worrying tendency to overthink it.
Report lewisham ranger May 4, 2019 11:10 PM BST
Figgis next job- user carpet salesman

the guy could sell ice to eskimos Wink
Report lewisham ranger May 4, 2019 11:11 PM BST
ten sovereigns is massively overrated, calyx is in a totally different ballpark to him and will rip him another **** at royal ascot

then again come race time I'll have probably overthought it and backed ten sovereigns Sad
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 11:20 PM BST
a stone in hand

He does have a stone in hand, just over 2f shorter, which is all I ever claimed Wink

magna grecia being a slowboat

I still say he is a slowboat. However he was still the third fastest horse going into the race behind TS and Advertise, who were both suspect stayers. It's just that the rest were even slower boats Wink

he was a serious tool

Good luck with that opinion in future. Personally he'll need to do more than beat King of Change 2.5 lengths to convince me Silly
Report lewisham ranger May 4, 2019 11:29 PM BST
just admit that you were wrong Figgis. it might help you mate.Wink

slowboats don't win guineas, however "bad" a renewal they supposedly are. (and that's according to some, not the majority.)

anyway it's not your fault, it's my decision. my mistake. people like howellsy big up the forum which is fair enough but I think it can also lead to overthinking, which in some ways can be harmful. like just make a decision and stick with it, but if you keep discussing everything back and forth a million times... anyway that's just my opinion. will stay off here for a bit.

if I've learned anything from the forum, is that it's about listening to your own voice. you don't need forums really, they just over complicate.
Report lewisham ranger May 4, 2019 11:31 PM BST
he was a serious tool

Good luck with that opinion in future. Personally he'll need to do more than beat King of Change 2.5 lengths to convince me


I wouldn't have needed the future, if I had just listened to it today.
Report Figgis May 4, 2019 11:38 PM BST
slowboats don't win guineas, however "bad" a renewal they supposedly are

Well it's obviously a comparative remark. Would I consider Guineas winners like Island Sands and Refuse To Bend slowboats in a Gp3? Of course not. Compared to the better Guineas winners or even average winners yes I consider them slowboats.
Report lewisham ranger May 4, 2019 11:41 PM BST
but I think what I was saying about stamina in this race is very relevant. sprinter types don't tend to win the guineas. or not that often.

you made the comparison with zafonic but he was already proven over longer trips.

anyway you made a judgement call and you were wrong (on ts, probably because of the trip) but yeah fair play, you put it up beforehand.
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 12:02 AM BST
anyway you made a judgement call and you were wrong

I thought he would stay the trip so yes I was totally wrong, hands up. I did only ever say I thought he would and always made it clear from the outset that I wasn't massively confident about his stamina at all. I said if he didn't stay then he might as well be 100/1 no matter how much faster he was. For me at the time, it seemed well worth the risk at the price which was more than double what he ended up. In hindsight, as I posted earlier, I might not do similar in future as unproven stamina becomes too much guesswork, at least for me it does when the horse has only been 6f, although that would again depend on the price I'm getting.

As I said once before on here, there are 2 types of punters. Ones who think everything has some kind of chance and the challenge is to beat the book. If they think a horse has an evens chance and back it at 2/1 then it doesn't automatically mean they failed when one gets beat. They're expecting 50% to lose anyway. Then there are those who feel all races are a puzzle with an inevitable outcome to be solved. When a result is known there was a route to the winner that should have been found. These 2 types of punters are on totally different paths.
Report lewisham ranger May 5, 2019 12:15 AM BST
yes but anyway he didn't stay so it's all immaterial now

or maybe he did stay and just didn't train on. who knows
Report lewisham ranger May 5, 2019 12:19 AM BST
personally I think ten sovereigns is slightly overrated. there was just nothing that really impressed me about that middle park run.

magna grecia impressed me more when he won his maiden. I tend to go on visual impression and my gut instinct and that's what I thought at the time. that he was a serious horse.

your thing about the punters only is really relevant to my subsequent losing the plot with my idea that "I just have a feeling that O'Brien won't win this one" which of course is totally ridiculous and relates to overthinking.

my intial impression was correct.
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 1:07 AM BST
or maybe he did stay and just didn't train on. who knows

I don't know that either. At the moment I'm on the side that he'll put up a big performance in a sprint this year.

I opposed Gleneagles when he won. My thinking was the horse had a big reputation and still hadn't been bottomed so potentially could still be anything, but had done nothing to prove he was up to winning a Guineas. However he did win the Guineas and on the day I rated him up with O'Brien's previous best winners of the race, which for me were Henrythenavigator and George Washington. O'Brien even thought he was the best miler he'd had. Things went pear shaped after the SJP but I don't think that should detract from the performance he gave in the Guineas. So I have no problem changing my opinion about one I got wrong in a Guineas.

Magna Grecia is different. There is no way I can rate this Guineas anything but mediocre. I sometimes kick myself for missing a winner but not here. If I'd known for sure that TS wouldn't stay, that Advertise wouldn't train on or get the trip (which I pretty much suspected anyway) and that none of the others in the field would improve whatsoever, apart from the Hannon horse, then yes I would've picked MG. I thought, wrongly, it was quite big odds on all those things happening. Particularly that none of the field would improve past the standard MG had set last year.

That's exactly what happened though, in my view. There are many times where I have a horse rated best of those most likely to run their race, but not up to the usual standard of winner. Sometimes they do win but more often something improves past them. This one won, but when a similar situation comes up in future I probably still wouldn't back it unless I thought the odds were too good to miss.

Anyway, we'll see in future how good MG is. If I'm wrong about him I'll own up, but not on this showing.
Report jedi sophie May 5, 2019 4:16 AM BST
Anyone mention what the fools who own train involved in Persian King were thinking?
Form there for all to see,was before and is more so now....
Report jedi sophie May 5, 2019 4:17 AM BST
Mg a worthy winner for me,never in any doubt from about 4f out.
Newmarket not a fair track...
Report lewisham ranger May 5, 2019 9:47 AM BST
I still don't get why you are so negative on this horse Figgis. what is he doing that's so wrong on the clock? the 2000 guineas was the fastest time on the clock yesterday at that meeting. is it his sectionals, his final times, or the way he looks at you? Crazy

what is it??? Cry
Report lewisham ranger May 5, 2019 9:49 AM BST
when Gleneagles won the guineas, he clocked a slower time than magna grecia.

maybe they didn't go so much pace in that race, but the ground was probably slower yesterday than in Gleneagles guineas...
Report FOYLESWAR May 5, 2019 9:56 AM BST
jedi i commented on the magna grcia thread that fabre said " he is in the english guineas but " we will wait to see if any of the better horses come out " well too darn hot came out but fabre still ducked the race ,think he may have been wary of taking on the winner again .
Report FOYLESWAR May 5, 2019 10:06 AM BST
what i saw in his maiden win was not a slow horse but one who quickened up like a good un! his next race was against a very smart more exp performer and he was just beaten ,the futerity was a bit less impressive on paper but after being behind he quickened well and won all this was achived in about a month .
Report FOYLESWAR May 5, 2019 10:07 AM BST
taking magna grecia on again ^^^^
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 12:55 PM BST
what is it?

His Futurity win was up to standard for the race. I am not saying he was a poor winner of that race. Just that the race doesn't usually throw up a Guineas winner unless it's a well above average winner of the race. Saxon Warrior was an above average winner, nothing special but better than MG, and he went on to win a poor Guineas. It was a poor Guineas but still better than the one MG has just won, in my view.

The best time on yesterday's card, relatively speaking, was the Palace House. Using this as a guide to the ground then the Guineas becomes a slow time compared to the norm. Ok, we could possibly excuse the Guineas as the ground may have been a bit slower further out than 5f, or the rain got more into the ground later on the card. However the time for the 6f handicap throws the latter excuse out of the window. Maybe we could talk up the 6f handicap winner as a much improved horse who won well and will go on to better things, so the Guineas time doesn't look so poor. However the most damning is the last race, a handicap run over the same trip. Unless Pogo is a Gp3 animal in a handicap and the rest are well above average for the grade the Guineas time is poor compared to the norm for the race.

Now even though I'm a time man I fully concede times aren't always a true barometer in every race. Unfortunately we have King Of Change in second which does nothing to suggest the form may be better than the time performance. We have Ten Sovereigns who either didn't stay or hasn't trained on or both. Who knows? Some people are suggesting he was just overrated so maybe they think King Of Change would've hammered the Middle Park runners. We also have the other runners who had never run a good time themselves and appeared to be disadvantaged on the track.

Last year I had people telling me that I was crazy to downgrade Saxon Warrior, an unbeaten future superstar who was a shoe in for the Derby. Well, until proven otherwise I'm saying this Guineas winner is worse than him Wink
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 5, 2019 2:43 PM BST
I see post race Aiden said
ts was NOT a hopeful for the race

Going Sprinting
What a surprise

NOT

Laugh
Report impossible123 May 5, 2019 5:23 PM BST
Calyx and TS in the Commonwealth Cup; betting is 6/4 and 5/1 respectively.
Report Deptford May 5, 2019 7:47 PM BST
Calyx too good for TS
Report lewisham ranger May 5, 2019 8:00 PM BST
yeah good call with saxon warrior figs

you said that horse would regress and he did, myself and others didn't see it at the time
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 9:06 PM BST
LR, on watching the Guineas, after the initial disappointment of TS not staying my next thoughts were that I'd also got MG wrong and he must be better than I thought. When trying to rate the card at first I put him on and a reasonable figure and tried to work from that but things just didn't add up. I was a bit shocked how low the winning figure ended up but that's how it fits. I suppose we've been a bit spoiled in recent years with some very good performances. I thought last year's below par race was a blip and still thought there was virtually no chance of a present day Guineas being won by an Island Sands level performance. I was wrong.

There is always a dilemma when you have a race where you rate the best horse (or in this case the best known stayer), let's say, 120, but the average past winning figure for the race is nearer 130 and there are some young unexposed runners in the race. Do you go with the 120 horse and take a chance on nothing else improving or leave it thinking something will progress past it? More often than not when I have backed such a horse it runs its race but just gets beat by an improver. I thought that even if TS didn't stay and even though MG was the best of the rest after the iffy Advertise something would probably progress past him. I was wrong.

I could be totally wrong here. The time of the Guineas may not be a true reflection of MG's ability. King Of Change might show that he really is a horse worthy of running second in a Guineas. However, until that is proven I have to take an opposing view with so many cracks in the form and MG undoubtedly going off short in future.
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 9:09 PM BST
*put him on a reasonable figure
Report lewisham ranger May 5, 2019 9:54 PM BST
figs, on a slightly different topic what do think of o'briens dominance of the classics and is it healthy for the game? and should we just be downgrading every other runner that isn't trained by him?
Report roadrunner46 May 5, 2019 10:32 PM BST
TBH honest thought it was blindling obvious that donkey wasn't going to stay, then you have the old chestnut about speed, so I guess was still possibility, just sitting in my aftertimesr armchair
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 10:36 PM BST
LR, I would prefer it if the best horses were evenly spread between a few trainers, like It was in the 80s. That said I just like to see good horses whoever trains them. It's a bit disappointing when I see what I would call moderate renewals and he's still dominating them. I start to think Christ why can't the other trainers even get some of their runners to back up their best performances, but then you have to say O'Brien has a big advantage there because he's mob handed. Look at today's 1000. Two of his more fancied runners failed to run to their best. Other trainers would be pinning all their hopes on just the one horse running to form.

should we just be downgrading every other runner that isn't trained by him

In my view, even though that yard are dominating the numbers I don't consider them to have had the very best horses in recent years. I'd say yes Minding was the best 1000 winner for years but the best other classic winners have been Frankel, Enable, Sea The Stars and Golden Horn.

As far as punting goes the good thing is that amongst the better winners he's had a few that get overrated, go off short in future and achieve little. Virginia Waters, Homecoming Queen, Saxon Warrior and, dare I say it, Magna Grecia so there's always a silver lining Wink
Report Figgis May 5, 2019 11:03 PM BST
The thing with O'Brien as well is no matter which horse wins he always makes it sound like it was pretty much expected. Today's winner "Really grew into a 3yo, very, very tough", etc, etc. If Just Wonderful had won he'd have said she was always their preferred and waxed lyrical. Yesterday the winner was "Very pacy, strong traveller, stronger at 3". With the beaten TS it is now that he's a 6f horse who they were only hopeful of staying. Which to be fair he always only said he was hopeful, but you can be sure if he had stayed his previous quotes would've come into play again, such as he never gave them any reason to doubt he wouldn't stay, long stride, relaxed, clear winded, good mind....
Report lewisham ranger May 6, 2019 12:32 AM BST
yeah. I think though to assume that o brien or any other trainer knows their exact pecking order based on what they do at home, isn't always accurate. some of them might just not work that well at home. or sometimes they might be very closely matched, plus he doesn't know for sure if TS will stay or not. and he has such a ridiculous wealth of blue blood talent that it must get quite confusing at times.
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