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It's something that I've not really looked into, but I'd be surprised if you didn't show a profit by backing horses that have been supplemented into group races.
With that in mind, Maid Up 28/1 at bullies is the bet. Being a master craftsman, faster ground would have been preferable, but the stable is flying and the price is too big to ignore. |
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but I'd be surprised if you didn't show a profit by backing horses that have been supplemented into group races.
why? most systems fail. |
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Small ew interest on DXB for me this morn @ 16/1
Gd luck all. |
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I've backed Kew Gardens 7/2 win and Southern France 14/1 ew.
A function of the prices really - Kew Gardens was as short as 5/1 for this after winning the Queens Vase and has won a Group One since then, his trial in Great Voltigeur with a penalty was perfectly acceptable in my eyes too - and they were going to run him in the King George before he scoped dirty. He's Coolmore's best 3yo middle distance colt (arguably by default I suppose) and we know he stays the trip. Lah Ti Dar could be a superstar and absolutely hose up but a bit too much guess work involved for me at the prices |
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In my view if Dee Ex Bee returns to his Derby form he'd win. It was a career peak for him that day and, looking at how he's run since, took a lot out of him. Maybe he'll never repeat that level again, but you couldn't be surprised if one from this yard returned to form after a string of absolute rubbish performances. Won't be backing him and will just have to take it on the chin if he wins. Going further back, The Pentagon's RPT run would give him a winning chance but he seems to have lost the plot since.
Last time I have Old Persian improving 10lbs with form that would also see him in the mix. It was quite a grinding win though and wouldn't be too sure of him repeating that. I have Kew Gardens very slightly behind him and he's a horse who has surprised me a bit with his consistency as I don't have him improving a jot since his Zetland win. If he can maintain that consistency he obviously won't be far away. After all that I'm backing the fav. For me if she'd been able to run in the Oaks and produced that York form she'd have been a comfortable winner. I have her a couple of pounds ahead of Sea Of Class, whose Arc chances I reckon have been overrated. That still wouldn't make Lah Ti Dar an exceptional Oaks winner. She's certainly no Enable and so far I don't believe she's even as good as Gosden's Taghrooda, but with her sex allowance I have her above these (excepting Dee Ex Bee). Only a few pounds ahead and horses can't be expected to run right to the pound every time so on that alone she wouldn't be an outstanding bet, but taking into account she's a relatively fresh horse she's also the runner I'd most expect to run close to her best. 7/4 was a price I would just about have begrudgingly taken, but the 5/2 on here now makes her decent value so I've backed her. |