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impossible123
20 Jun 18 16:54
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 1,708 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Kew Gardens has been catapulted into 7/1 2nd fav behind the Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee 6/1 after a polished performance in the Queen Vase over the Leger distance. But there could be another AOB lively candidate in the King Edward VII Stakes on friday in Delano Roosevelt 14/1 who finished 6th at Epsom.
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Report FELTFAIR June 20, 2018 6:40 PM BST
So insightful Bungle.
Report impossible123 June 22, 2018 12:11 PM BST
No significant support for Delano Roosevelt (yet) but I believe she's a shoo-in for the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot today. If winning well he'd be better supported than here than Kew Gardens given their respective positions at Epsom.
Report impossible123 June 30, 2018 11:08 PM BST
A much better run from Delano Roosevelt (4th), and The Pentagon who was finishing the best (from last) to be 5th in the Irish Derby to confound his critics who thought he'd not stay 12f after Epsom; Latrobe winner of the Irish Derby has been matched at 21 (here) and only quoted by some bookies at 6/1 - doubtful runner perhaps.

Dee Ex Bee has drifted to 13 (here) and 10 (from 11/2) with bookies, but Kew Gardens firmed along with Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2018 5:41 PM BST
Giuseppi Garibaldi one of the fancies from AOB's stable has just been beaten by his stablemate Flag Of Honour over The Leger trip in Ireland; AOB could have a stranglehold on this Classic come raceday.
Report Lance in France July 3, 2018 9:24 AM BST
I have nailed my colours to the mask of Dee Ex Bee at 10/1 EW with Lads. Trainer has outright stated that this race is his target and will plan backwards from it with a race schedule. The Irish Derby appeared disappointing at first viewing but watching it again the horse was just getting going inside the furlong (no hope of winning at that stage) on the rails and had to check in his run otherwise would have finished closer. MJ said DEB wasn't keen on the firm ground and all in all it was a satisfactory trial for a horse who hopefully will relish the extra 2 furlongs and has the race as his target. 10/1 seems very fair to me and this is an attempt to get my September dough back!
Report unclepuncle July 3, 2018 9:39 AM BST
I’m on The Pentagon from pre season at 25/1 so was nice to see him run so well in the Irish Derby - though I wish he’d been ridden to win it.
I also took the 12/1 on Hunting Horn straight after his Ascot win but purely with a view to lay off for a freebie.

I’ve also backed Wells Farhh Go @ 33/1 - reminds me of Bollin Eric.

The Great Voltigeur is usually the key trial race, though winning it isn’t essential. Young Rascal might be one for that but the Leger trip may stretch him.
Report impossible123 July 10, 2018 1:01 PM BST
The fav Kew Gardens has been matched at 7.8, a full point longer - nothing amiss I hope.
Report unclepuncle July 12, 2018 1:58 PM BST
A pleasing result in the Bahrain Trophy.Grin
Report sintonian July 13, 2018 11:02 AM BST
Was really surprised you could still get 14/1 about WFG after his impressive win yesterday. The change in tactics look to have suited him perfectly and it's worth noting he was only 6 lengths off Roaring Lion in the Dante, seasonal debut and 10f. Looks a big player to me.
Report impossible123 July 26, 2018 3:36 PM BST
Kew Gardens has been withdrawn from the King George & QE Stakes scheduked this saturday - dirty scope - but I hope he makes this race come September.
Report Millerracing67 July 28, 2018 2:54 PM BST
Had a small interest ££ on Young Rascal (20/1 gen) & 25.0 on here.
This heatwave surely can't last till Sept??
Think he could be a smart Colt with some ease in the ground.
Think he's overprice as it stands.
Report impossible123 August 14, 2018 9:50 PM BST
AOB has today stated Kew Gardens will run in the Great Voltigeur. Similarly, Forever Together and Magic Wand in the Yorkshire Oaks. Hope Sea Of Class shows up too.
Report unclepuncle August 22, 2018 3:04 PM BST
All things considered that was a huge run from Kew Gardens.
Report impossible123 August 22, 2018 5:09 PM BST
A good rehearsal from Kew Gardens for this race considering the below par performance of his stablemates; he came from some distance back to take 3rd. A 2lb pull with the winner plus another 2f extra ought to be sufficient to turn the table on the winner Old Persian especially on good/good to firm ground, I firmly believe.
Report impossible123 August 26, 2018 8:20 PM BST
Lah Ti Dar has crept into the picture post her annihilation of her opponents in the Galtres Stakes on her 1st race back from injury; she's 2nd fav at 10/3.

The $64k question is...will she be risked here over 14f on her 2nd race back from an injury? She's also entered in The Arc (12f) 3 weeks later and Fillies and Mares at Ascot a month later.
Report Charlton2005 August 27, 2018 12:29 AM BST
FELTFAIR
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20 Jun 18 18:40 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 5,548 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog
So insightful Bungle.


just like every comment he makes. either pointless or so devoid of logic as to be laughable. yet he thinks he's helping us out
Report impossible123 August 28, 2018 8:20 PM BST
A doubt about Lah Ti Dar as connections are leaning towards The Vermeille a day later. Then The Arc (if successful), but will be left in here too. That would make more sense given the fillies wfa allowance and prestige of The Arc; 14f for a 3yr old filly on her 2nd race back from injury...the risks outweigh the reward, I believe.
Report montgomery brewster September 8, 2018 9:32 AM BST
Is loxley now a runner
Report impossible123 September 8, 2018 2:51 PM BST
The price of Lah Ti Dar has contracted alarmingly here - she into 8 here, half the price yesterday. But still no update from connections definitively when she goes yet; bookies induced perhaps with Confirmation Day being 12pm monday 10th Sept.
Report can but dream September 8, 2018 2:58 PM BST
Lah Ti Dar will run at Doncaster I've been informed due to it being a weak st leger, only kew gardens to beat
Report impossible123 September 8, 2018 3:05 PM BST
Or it could be the victory of Enable that has prompted this support for Lah Ti Dar for this race. Nevertheless, I'm still in The Vermeille camp.
Report can but dream September 8, 2018 3:11 PM BST
Good luck but don't say I didn't tell you ;)
Report Graeme83 September 8, 2018 3:15 PM BST
^ ^ ^ ^ topics/replies 7
Report kevinglass September 9, 2018 1:42 PM BST
A lot's going to depend on the going. The forecast seems there is little rain, but it's fairly cool in temperature.

Anybody in Doncaster around to check the going in their back garden???!!
Report Andrew in Sweden September 9, 2018 5:01 PM BST
Lah Ti Dar hasn't even been declared for the Prix Vermeille, but could be supplemented of course (as she needs to be the for Arc).

She could also run in the Moyglare Blandford a week today (already entered) that would be a perfect fit (G2 - fillies 10f) and a race she can win on ratings. It wouldn't surprise me if this was her next race.

The St Leger is an option of course and several fillies have won it, Simple Verse, User Friendly and Dunfermline to name a few and the latter two also ran in the Arc.

I have my doubts she will run in the Arc.
Report unclepuncle September 9, 2018 6:46 PM BST
With Enable looking so good yesterday I would think the Fillies and Mare race at Ascot may be her target rather than the Arc.
Whether she goes via the Leger or, as Andrew suggests, the Blandford I don’t know.
Report Joe Mac September 9, 2018 8:50 PM BST
Id be holding fire until we see an updated weather forecast.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 10, 2018 7:50 PM BST
Kevinglass there used to be a dog walker think he was called town moor regularly posted he might be around still.
Report foxy September 11, 2018 1:33 PM BST
Tut tut Andrew how could you not mention oh so Sharpe the last horse to win the fillies triple crown.
Report impossible123 September 11, 2018 3:19 PM BST
Looks like Kew Gardens might get his ground eventually. It is good to soft at the moment with negligible rain forecast tomorrow but none after.

Lah Ti Dar is still 11/10 for The Vermeille, but her price continues to contract here. It could be "easy" money for those who are prepared to bet against her running here; 3/1 could be a value bet (against) given the possible good ground on saturday plus an extra 2f further than she's gone before.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 11, 2018 4:53 PM BST
Foxy,

Good observation and i have mentioned her on similar threads but i guess i was thinking of the Arc at the time although i did say 'latter two'.

I saw Oh So Sharp at Ascot, a wonderful filly, so good a group race was named after her.

Maybe the Enable stakes in years to come ? Wink.

Lah Ti Dar not declared for the Blanford in Ireland so Doncaster or ParisLongchamp it is.
Report Hibore September 11, 2018 10:54 PM BST
Lah Ti Dar going St Leger 80/20 now
Report impossible123 September 11, 2018 11:36 PM BST
I think unless an aspiring Arc runner has contested at least a Group 1 race prior connection of a 3yr old would normally choose a race in France eg The Niel or The Vermeille (both 12f) as prep, and very unlikely this race over 14f. Thus, I still believe The Vermeille is the more likely destination for Lah Ti Dar despite the contraction in her price here; the going at Longchamp is presently good to soft similar to Doncaster.

If she runs here she'd probably be about 6/4 (stamina not assured) with Kew Gardens about 2/1, I think, given good ground.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 12, 2018 6:56 AM BST
a 3yr old would normally choose a race in France eg The Niel or The Vermeille (both 12f) as prep, and very unlikely this race over 14f.

There's been 6 since turn of the century alone and more prior to it

Kingston Hill
Leading Light
Masked Marvel
Sixties Icon
Scorpion
Milan
Report impossible123 September 12, 2018 6:25 PM BST
Hibore, you're correct. Lah Ti Dar has just been confirmed for this race; she's 15/8 clear fav.
Report harry callaghan September 12, 2018 7:38 PM BST
i have to say i quite like the filly lah ti dar, however 7/4 general on the back of winning a listed race, of which non of the other fillies ran any sort of race or did any running i find quite odd

maybe the field isn't that deep but it is just a sickening price if you buy the race she won. she looks a nice filly and has a chance but it isn't a 7/4 shot it should be 3/1 along with kew gardens
Report willie the milk September 12, 2018 8:44 PM BST
I have heard that Kew Gardens may stay in Ireland for the race on Sunday now that OOSG has been retired.
Don't shot the messenger if its incorrect
Report Try My Best September 13, 2018 4:11 PM BST
Think front 2 in the betting are short enough and will take a chance with Southern France. lightly raced imposing individual who is getting better with each run and looks an out an out stayer to me. Ridden quietly out the back coming through strongly last 2 runs and think he will relish this. draw 11 not ideal but if he can get a good position think he can outstay these. 18 on here and will have a few quid on this one to give the Ballydoyle team another winner in this classic. Think he represents a bit of value
Report impossible123 September 13, 2018 5:32 PM BST
Southern France had a tender intro the last time, and ran accordingly; he also probably will have his ground. Without a doubt Nelson will be doing the donkey work for Kew Gardens (KG); the pace will be frantic to try and expose any stamina limitation of Lah Ti Dar (LTD), I believe. Hopefully, negligible precipitation between now and race, and KG gets his ideal ground to thwart any (successful) late gatecrashing by LTD.
Report twonky September 15, 2018 9:17 AM BST
It's something that I've not really looked into, but I'd be surprised if you didn't show a profit by backing horses that have been supplemented into group races.

With that in mind, Maid Up 28/1 at bullies is the bet. Being a master craftsman, faster ground would have been preferable, but the stable is flying and the price is too big to ignore.
Report lewisham ranger September 15, 2018 1:56 PM BST
but I'd be surprised if you didn't show a profit by backing horses that have been supplemented into group races.

why? most systems fail.
Report Millerracing67 September 15, 2018 1:56 PM BST
Small ew interest on DXB for me this morn @ 16/1
Gd luck all.
Report ReaseHeath September 15, 2018 2:34 PM BST
I've backed Kew Gardens 7/2 win and Southern France 14/1 ew.

A function of the prices really - Kew Gardens was as short as 5/1 for this after winning the Queens Vase and has won a Group One since then, his trial in Great Voltigeur with a penalty was perfectly acceptable in my eyes too - and they were going to run him in the King George before he scoped dirty. He's Coolmore's best 3yo middle distance colt (arguably by default I suppose) and we know he stays the trip.

Lah Ti Dar could be a superstar and absolutely hose up but a bit too much guess work involved for me at the prices
Report Figgis September 15, 2018 2:38 PM BST
In my view if Dee Ex Bee returns to his Derby form he'd win. It was a career peak for him that day and, looking at how he's run since, took a lot out of him. Maybe he'll never repeat that level again, but you couldn't be surprised if one from this yard returned to form after a string of absolute rubbish performances. Won't be backing him and will just have to take it on the chin if he wins. Going further back, The Pentagon's RPT run would give him a winning chance but he seems to have lost the plot since.

Last time I have Old Persian improving 10lbs with form that would also see him in the mix. It was quite a grinding win though and wouldn't be too sure of him repeating that. I have Kew Gardens very slightly behind him and he's a horse who has surprised me a bit with his consistency as I don't have him improving a jot since his Zetland win. If he can maintain that consistency he obviously won't be far away.

After all that I'm backing the fav. For me if she'd been able to run in the Oaks and produced that York form she'd have been a comfortable winner. I have her a couple of pounds ahead of Sea Of Class, whose Arc chances I reckon have been overrated. That still wouldn't make Lah Ti Dar an exceptional Oaks winner. She's certainly no Enable and so far I don't believe she's even as good as Gosden's Taghrooda, but with her sex allowance I have her above these (excepting Dee Ex Bee). Only a few pounds ahead and horses can't be expected to run right to the pound every time so on that alone she wouldn't be an outstanding bet, but taking into account she's a relatively fresh horse she's also the runner I'd most expect to run close to her best. 7/4 was a price I would just about have begrudgingly taken, but the 5/2 on here now makes her decent value so I've backed her.
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