2018 Arc De Triomphe

If Enable and Sea Of Class (SoC) were to clash in one of their preps for this race next season my money would be on the latter, all things being equal. I think SoC ran her heart out....

Hi Guys,

Back in my adopted homeland after 4 days in Paris (stayed an extra night).

I gave the Saturday card a miss (poor card) but Sunday was superb, specially the Arc and Abbeye.

With respect to the Arc, Enable is an exceptional, resolute filly, albeit many of us knew that before Sunday and in my humble opinion better than Treve and up there with Zakarva. To win as she did after only one AW warm up race since her previous Arc win, coping with lameness and an unexplained high temperature illness only weeks ago was nothing short of remarkable. After going 3L up in the last 200 metres it was only in the last 100 she began to tire (quite badly) giving 7lb to the younger and fitter runner-up who had a much better preparation.

Although i was ecstatic after the race, i give full credit to Sea Of Class who ran better than i expected (may have won with a better draw) and also to Cloth of Stars who was placed again. Sea of Class backers must have been pulling their hair out, athough it's the way she runs.

Enable has made history that is unlikely to be broken and next year maybe she can make it 3 Arcs. I know which one i will be on if Enable and Sea of Class meet (anywhere) next year.

A good day for me, 5 bets (excluding ante-post on Enable) with 2 winners including Mabs Cross who i highlighted on here (lay thread Friday).

The racing was superb as it often is, but the new grandstand (much smaller than the old one) is so gaudy, i didn't like it at all. Everything is coloured Gold to presumably represent luxury, but it fails miserably, instead it's a tacky, plastic look with 'patio' style timber decking everywhere. $145,000,000 down the Seine, someone has made millions !

The food and drink queues were the same as they always were, totally insufficient and unorganised, even electrical power wasn't available in places before the first race.

Toilets were few and disgusting towards the end of the meeting.

One improvement (and contrary to media reports) i thought getting a bet on was 'acceptable', queues were still in place (albeit shorter than previous years) but there also were self-service kiosks and Longchamp staff with mobile hand-held tablets for placing bets. I didn't see this as a significant negative issue.

Was the granstand worth €75 ? Absolutely no way. Ascot premier enclosure for less money is far superior.

Lack of seating is just one on several things that need looking at. Racegoers i was talking with on the return bus also said the Arc Gardens enclosure was very poor. I also thought there were less TV screens than before. I much prefer the old Longchamp even though it was getting 'tired' as i am now

No great surprise that Enables performance was rated some way below her best, I'd rate her win around the 124 mark, approx 5/6lbs below last yrs romp. Don't agree with some of the views that James Doyle road a poor race on SOC ? From a poor draw he road a cracker in my book, just coming up short of winning. As for next yr if both fillies turn up again (Ensble with a much better season behind her) I'd expect Ensble to beat her again. Here's hoping they both stay in training.

PS: please forgive the "lazy finger" lol :-)) (Ensble)  aka ENABLE. :-))

Hi Guys
Just watched the Arc and nothing exceptional. I did think Frankie took it a little bit easy going to the front when it was obvious there would be possible late finishers. I backed her and Cracksman so made a little.

I have to agree with Figgis here and think somehow Gosden has Oppenheimer eating out of his hands. I don't think any other trainer in the world would have not run Cracksman in the Arc. Even the promise of the Champion shouldn't have been good enough reason. The distance would have been no problem. I think maybe Gosden always thought Cracksman wasn't that good and cannot believe the luck he has had against poor opponents and the ridiculous rating he has been given. And it looks like he may get away with it again in the Champion. I cannot think of any other possible reason. Beating horses like Permian, Venice Beach, Avilius, Wrens Day and Salouen is awful really. Only his win in the Champion has some merit but against horses like Poets Word (not like ground and not Group 1) is really weak. His sire is the only reason for his rating imo. JG said it wouldn't be fair to run him in a race of that class. It was a crap race really on paper excluding Enable.

Bigrust I have never read so much shyte in my life.

Frankie rode a great race on a clearly not quite 100% Enable. He took a great position and she quickened at the perfect time. Her tank was empty at the finish and ridden any other way SOC would have won. I would hardly describe her as crap being an unbeaten classic winner going into the race

Also, to belittle Cracksmans achievements is ridiculous. His Champion win was in a G1 by 7l. In the field were the multiple G1 winner Poets Word, 7x G1 winner Highland Reel, Recoletos has since won 2x G1 & a G2, Brametot 2x G1 wins, Barney Roy G1 winner. Doesn't seem to me to be a weak G1 in which he destroyed the opposition

Admittedly some of the other fields were far weaker races; but he easily dispatched Cloth of Stars for eg. by almost 5l without coming off the snaff in the Prix Ganay! Clearly the horse has had problems and to me he isn't as good as Enable but he is still shwon himself to be top class.

Stop sitting on the fence Charwell...

Cracksman was a late developer, and Gosden only ran him at Epsom because there is only one Derby! His run in The Irish Derby (Dettori not onboard) would be best forgotten on that jockey's CV; his win over Cloth Of Stars (CoS) in The Ganay was top-notch given the reliable yardstick of CoS who was near/at his prime - 2nd consecutive placing in The Arc recently, I believe.

Dettori made an astute and strategic move at the perfect time to beat the only horse in The Arc that could beat her on potential and wfa allowance; her connections knew it, and kicked at the perfect moment to put the race to bed. And it succeeded (by a head).

Good to read your views Charwell pity you never listened to Dettori. He thought he had plenty in the tank but then, at the death, she emptied on him. Read back through your posts you must have read some shyte before.

I have been a Cracksman fan since he won his first race at Newmarket as many posters on here will know but his form is not great. No-one would have believed Permian was Group 1 and the same applies to all of the others I listed. I bet Stoute couldn't believe he won Group 1's with Poets Word but that is what he did. Not because he was Group 1 but because the horses that turned up against him were Group 3 at best. Who could ever believe Decorated Hero would win 3 Group 1's? It was a poor year at best. You have to try to remember how you felt at the beginning of the year. Of course you then put in the proviso that many of the horses he has beaten when winning are not great. Your points are flawed Ports Word wasn't a multiple Group 1 winner he was rated just Listed class at best on the day and that shows just how good the others were.

Of the list I gave you Our Venice Beach, Avilius, Wrens Day, Salouen and Poets Word ALL of them earned their highest rating against Cracksman. When Cracksman should have been rated through them and not the other way around.

I backed Cracksman for the Derby at 40's over the winter but I never once believed he would be good enough to win it. The only reason he was id because the opposition was very weak. Gosden said all year he was backward and ducked the Arc for 2 seasons for no obvious reason other than that he thought the horse wasn't good enough. And that was confirmed by him throughout his 3 year old career. Try not to believe the hype.

The debate about Cracksman, Poets Word etc illustrates why we have to use use numerical ratings, with all their drawbacks. It's hard to work with descriptions such as "top-class " without qualifying the term in some way so the traditional way is to use "Group 1"  class terminology and usually by that we mean winners (although close-up placed horse may qualify) of G1's.

Unfortunately, there are many shades of G1's and not all of them rate as highly as the "Classics" and the very best all-aged races such as the Arc and the KG. Even then, disputes arise because of the quality of the field or the slow pace/tactics which might result in a bunched finish putting horses together which mayor may not be an accurate order of merit.

To complicate matters even further, subsequent events may or may not support the outcome which further distorts the debate about order of merit. Hence the need for numerical ratings which handicappers all around the world recognise as the best way  to get some recognisable and agreed order of merit. Even then, because of the way races are run, such as last week's Arc, you will find disagreement about the level because of the weakness inherent in collateral handicapping which is fixated on finish line position, lengths and weights and does not have the flexibility to account for distribution of pace.Consequently, we can find that some handicappers (RP) rate  Enable's form in the ARC below her run at Kempton in a de facto 2 horse trial/prep training gallop, and also cannot rate Sea of Class as achieving a higher rating than Enable because she was beaten (albeit  marginally) by Enable despite requiring a much greater expenditure of energy to run an uneven pace race run race compared to Enable's even pace.

But, give me anytime the figures over semantics and movable definitions of what constitutes G1 class.

Hi Sandown. We all know much about racing is an opinion but ratings, I believe, should be consistent, and not rated based upon the name of the race for example. Phil Smith made no secret of the fact that he thought the top class races should be rated through the proximity of the lowest rated horse. Something he never followed in fact.

Bigrust, just a point about Decorated Knight.

He was the type of horse that was perfectly suited to courses with a short finishing straight, I've, Ascot, Leopardstown etc. In last seasons POW he finished in front of Ulysses and then unsurprisingly, finished behind him at sandown and York. 25s in the Irish champion must have been the silliest price returned last year given his favoured conditions.

Considering he also won a group 1 at the curragh, would make him a worthy group 1 winner, but not a great group 1 winner, but how many truly great group 1 horses have we seen in recent years?

Hi Brigust

My last post was really just a comment, not a complaint about the handicapping process, which is essential if we are to make comparisons between horses of the same and different eras and  countries and to allow for different distances,courses and going whilst incorporating the effects of weight , pace and tactics. To try to achieve that using a single figure is about as difficult as any physical task as you can imagine yet we try to work with a scale that tries to measure the effect of a pound weight or down to a fifth of a second when the weight of horse and jockey combined might be 1400 or 1500 pounds and races will be run in a minimum of 57 seconds or a maximum of around 6 minutes on the flat.

The methodology is standardised across the world so at least we can compare apples with apples as long as we ourselves remember to  build in our own adjustments using our eyes and opinions for the purposes of betting and enjoying a debate about the merits of different horses. As you say, it is in the end about different opinions but we should always remember too that chance plays such a huge part in racing that it can make us all look like fools. A science it is not.

Hi Sandown. I don't get on here very often and I'm off again at the end of the week. As you know I don't 'rate' horses or go on times as such unless I am perplexed about the way a race is run when I do think sectionals would help be often solutions can be found. That doesn't mean 'rating' horses or 'timing' horses is wrong, absolutely not but when someone claims a horse achieved a certain rating etc and I cannot fathom it I like to fig a little deeper.
As I said Phil Smith made a specific practice of saying he rated the better class races with the lowest rated particularly in mind yet toward the end of his tenure he consistently raised the lowest rated to a rating they had singularly never achieved before just to support his ratings as opposed to the other way around. If he hadn't said anything I wouldn't have even looked so perhaps he should have shut up. When I tried to raise this point in the RP they refused to print my letters. On every occasion.

How are you anyway? I am currently planning a US tour after return from our regular Disney trip last year. There is so much to see.

Hi Brigust

Doing well (I think) as I hope you are. My daughter haslived in the States for the past 10 years so we have been well travelled in that country. It really is many different countries - I have seen a book which claims that it is actually 11 separate countries - so if this is your first big tour then many I suggest some ideas- assuming that we may enjoy the same things. Anyway, here are our most enjoyable places that we have been too

1. New England in the Fall i.e. now, for the most marvelous landscape colour that you will ever see, anywhere on the planet.

2. New York -the Big Apple. The city that never stops. Has everything that you might want in culture, restaurants, theatre, Central Park. Visit Ellis Island. Walkable

3. Boston - a beautiful city - very European. Just gasp at Harvard & MIT campuses.

4.Washington DC. Very under-rated but great museums, galleries, restaurants. Walkable

5. Charleston- see what the South was like pre-Civil War. Beautiful.

6. California is a must especially San Francisco, San Diego, Yosemite.LA is a sprawling mass but go for Holywood.

7.Las Vegas for the greatest artificial city in the world. And as a base for Grand Canyon if you can manage it. Magnificent.

8. Chicago. Never been but our daughter thinks its great.

9. New Orleans.Never been but its on our list.

10.Austin, Texas. Its a an oasis in the desert that is Texas. Dallas & Fort Worth for the JFK museum & FW for the "cowboy" experience.

And to avoid, the Mid West, the South which includes the poorest most red-necked states in the union.

If you get to visit DC, try for Tea with Trump - he won't be there for much longer , if we're lucky that is.

To try to achieve that using a single figure is about as difficult as any physical task as you can imagine

It can be difficult. I often talk of what I consider a poor Guineas compared to an average one. This makes it sound as though there is a big difference but in terms of pounds there is often only about 3 or 4 pounds between a poor and average one. We are dealing with very fine margins. I've seen very good classics/Gp1s where the horses concerned don't all go on from it. I've seen less good races where the horses involved remain remarkably consistent picking up more Gp1s, Roaring Lion would be an example.

Sandown, don't you think problems also arise from having to rate the horse rather than a single performance? A horse's rating is always based on its perceived best performance, rather than a typical performance (if that's even possible to put a number on). A horse can run to, say, 135 in a certain race but never be able to quite match it. Calling the horse a 135 animal then begins to look stupid. I think it's best to say it ran to that figure on a given day, rather than call it a 135 horse in general.

Thanks S. New England is currently on Springwatch and looks beautiful I saw a Michael Portilla train journey in California which ended in San Diego. It ran all along the coast and the seats actually faced outwards and not forwards, that looked great. Already been to Vegas, stayed in the Bellagio so done that. Being a bit of a cowboy fan Texas is definitely on the list. Never even thought of Charleston  or Boston or even Washington but will give the areas a look. We hope to end up in Florida to meet the grandchildren. There is still a lot more planning to do. I might be there for Trump but only if he gets voted in again and that is not as impossible as it may sound.

*Portillo

Figgis

it ran to that figure on a given day, rather than call it a 135 horse in general.

Absolutely agree with that. If you have 2 horses one rated higher than the other but only runs to its rating half the time whilst the other always runs to its rating the latter one will win 40-45% of the time if say only 5lbs behind and usually at a price which doesn't reflect the inconsistency of the other.From a betting standpoint I will try and back the consistent animal providing its price doesn't represent its real chance. The inconsistent horse can finish well down when it doesn't run to its form rating. To be fair I usually think that the ratings given do normally represent the best form performance but of course an indication of potential improvement (P,p) (if TF) or a squiggle can alert the casual reader to take consistency or the lack of into account.

If you have 2 horses one rated higher than the other but only runs to its rating half the time whilst the other always runs to its rating the latter one will win

Similarly, being 'in the know' about a horse's current well being is a massive advantage. Often you get a horse heavily backed when it's fairly obvious there's another with better form. More often than not the 'form' horse is well beaten while the backed horse is ridden with the utmost to win comfortably. I remember reading that on average at least half the field will run below form in a race and personally I'd say that's being conservative. If you're almost certain your horse is going to run its race you can't know it'll win but you're halfway there. No matter how accurate the ratings are they're only part of the game and can definitely be out-trumped.

So, we're all agreed Cracksman would have romped home in the Arc

No

Have to laugh at the tv comments, "Cracksman back to his best in blinkers after disappointing at Royal Ascot". It's a bit like how every winning ride is a brilliant one. He ran just as lazily early on today and quickened away just as he did at RA. Only difference today there was no Poets Word running a brilliant time in front.

Soft ground is important to him, so no surprise that he's bagged 2 Champion Stks on very soft ground.
Great to see him sign off with another Big win.

He had soft ground for the Coronation Cup. He needed every yard of the 12f 18yds that day to collar Salouen, with Windstoss only 4 lengths back in 3rd. Form that just wouldn't have cut it yesterday. I don't think anyone is seriously buying the knock on the head crap.

I think most of his form is crap in the great scheme of things but, like Mrs May, what else is there?

We talk about races having strength in depth, which is always preferable to them not, but when it comes to matters of betting there are usually only ever two or three genuine Gp1 horses in any good race, the rest is just filling. We constantly hear about the 1986 Arc having great strength in depth, sure it ran deep and it sounds good when said afterwards, but as far as the class of the race goes it's a load of old bollocks. For all the talk of that strength in depth the vast majority of those horses weren't fancied at all. Dancing Brave had one true rival, which was Bering. The next fancied runners were the horses he'd already just beaten and that's about the size of it.

I've seen better performances in some 6 runner King George races than some Arcs with 'strength in depth', but the Arc will always carry the greater prestige.

I'd not call Cracksman beating Poet's Word by an easy 7l in the Champion Stakes on soft was carp form because Poet's Word did beat Crystal Ocean in this years King George's renewal at level weight by a neck with Coronet another 9l adrift - Coronet was 2nd to Magical (Oaks fancy) with Lah Ti Dar 3rd in the Fillies and Mares race; I think Cracksman had progressed enormously post the Epsom Derby, and ought to have won the Irish equivalent but for the jockey.

Soft ground is the key to Cracksman, and over 10f or 12f is a different proposition. I think he might be fav in a race over 12f against Enable, and I fancy him beating her too at that distance but not Epsom though.

I think he might be fav in a race over 12f against Enable,

It wasn't the case ante-post for the 2018 Arc prior to her injury ...... and with good reason.

Rightly or wrongly (rightly in my opinion) I think the betting would be a lot closer or even turned on its head after the Arc and Champions Stakes results for a 12f race on good ground. Form doesn't always remain constant. Only 18 months ago the yard and the markets believed Shutter Speed was a better filly than Enable, even after Enable's Chester romp.

.......... the markets believed Shutter Speed was a better filly than Enable, even after Enable's Chester romp.

I think you mean Newcastle romp, the previous year.

It's hardly surprising Shutter Speed was favourite, she had won a better race than Enables class 5 on the AW and Frankie was riding her.

You're correct, form doesn't always remain constant, Cracksman is a typical example.

If the two had met over 12f, Frankie would have been on Enable, he's basically 'intimated' that in interviews, even though he can't come out and say it directly for obvious reasons.

No I mean after Chester. There was still a belief that Shutter Speed was the faster filly but that maybe Enable was a better Oaks prospect. I remember a Betfair spokesman on tv saying they still had Shutter Speed shorter and I remember arguing the case on here that Enable had improved massively at Chester.

If the two had met over 12f, Frankie would have been on Enable

I'm sure he would have. Would be difficult deserting a filly who had won the Arc for you the previous season. Personally I think most jockeys are crap tipsters, unless they've received the tip from the yard.

I could not disagree more about the Dancing Brave Arc. In 1986 there were far fewer Group 1 races and the strength in depth was there. It was just that Dancing Brave and Bering were better than the others and not that they were weak. You are talking complete rubbish there Figgis.
As far as Cracksman meeting Enable in France on good ground I think the nature of the track with its long downhill approach to the home straight would be totally against him. He performs so well ar Ascot because it is uphill from Swinley Bottom and although the home straight is well drained the round course gets very soft. He just would not be fast enough and I think that is a large part of why JG never ran him there. On good and better ground fast horses do well at Longchamp.

You are talking complete rubbish there Figgis.

So when you are accused of talking sh1te (quite rightly too) we get a big protest of how you're entitled to your opinion, but others are talking rubbish. My view is Bering was a massive hype horse. Only won one Gp1 before the Arc and that was beating a mediocrity called Altayan by one and a half lengths. Shardari hadn't won a Gp1 before the King George. In his 4yo career he was beaten by Brunico a 33/1 hurdler. Came 4th in a moderate Coronation Cup and beat Baby Turk in a Gp2. Dancing Brave managed to beat him by only 3/4 of a length despite receiving 13lbs off this non Gp1 winner. He'd only get 11lbs on today's terms.

In the Arc Shardari didn't even run to form, finishing behind Triptych, a filly he'd just beaten twice. Shahrastani had already proved he was a spent force in the KG. DB managed to beat Bering but the French are still adamant that he was running on 3 legs inside the final furlong. Mersey was only 6 lengths behind. Talk about overrated

Gosden basically bottled it not allowing Enable and Cracksman to take one another one in Paris. A huge disappointment for Flat racing fans and the sport in general. I think Cracksman would gallop them into the ground on good ground or slightly slower esp. with Gosden coming out saying Enable wasn't even fit.

If the two had met over 12f, Frankie would have been on Enable

I'm sure he would have. Would be difficult deserting a filly who had won the Arc for you the previous season. Personally I think most jockeys are crap tipsters, unless they've received the tip from the yard.

Figgis, i meant any time

Andrew, do you fancy her to back up the win in America?

I have been through this in the past with you Figgis and it is tiring with you talking the same rubbish again.

Just as a rough reminder Bering was unbeaten run of four as a three year old including the French Derby, Shahrastani won the Epsom Derby then the Irish Derby by 8 lengths, Triptych was the best filly in Europe she won 9 Gr1's including the Irish 2000 Gns against the boys and was 2nd to Oh So Sharp in the Oaks (possibly the greatest Oaks winner), Darara had won the Vermielle by 5 lengths, the German Derby winner Acatenango was on a 12 race winning streak, St Estephe won a strongly contested Coronation Cup which included Triptych, Petoski (King George winner) and Shadari.

We all know odd horses can run huge races in the Arc that is nothing new.



However, I haven't the time nor the patience to waste any more energy on your trite arguments. Believe what you want. But whatever you do never confuse me with anyone who cares a crap what you think about Dancing Brave.

Well I'm off again tomorrow evening guys but I should be back in November to look after my daughter's cats while she is in Dubai. This has been a great debate. Take care all of you, including Andrew and metro John, and try to back a few winners.

Good to hear from you brigust, you liven up this forum, Have a good trip, enjoy the Breeders and Melborne Cup, I hear that AOBs team happy with  their chances! All the best Sir!

French Derby

Gp1 in name only that year, Altayan was crap.

Shahrastani won the Epsom Derby

Only because DB was given a crap ride.

Irish Derby by 8 lengths

The rest put up a no show that day. Proved he was overrated when stuffed as fav in the KG.

Triptych was the best filly in Europe she won 9 Gr1's

Would've thought you'd recognise this type of horse as you're always on about them. She was an also ran for most of her career. Only started picking up Gp1s when the best horses had retired. Look at the horses she beat in those Gp1s, all third raters. Tough filly/mare though I'll give her that

was 2nd to Oh So Sharp in the Oaks

Was stuffed in the Oaks, a bit like Rhododendron was by Enable. Oh So Sharp was then beaten by Petoski, while in receipt of an even more generous weight allowance than now.

Darara had won the Vermielle by 5 lengths

Gp1 in name only.

German Derby winner Acatenango was on a 12 race winning streak

A country known for far more worse Arc efforts than good ones.

St Estephe won a strongly contested Coronation Cup which included Triptych, Petoski (King George winner) and Shadari

Same old faces, rated highly through racing each other, and Saint Estephe was a very moderate Gp1 performer overall.

What a **** you are Figgis. I said I wasn't going to get into this with you but just a quick aside Triptych won 2 Champion Stakes (open to  three year olds) she won the Juddmonte (open to three year olds) she won the Irish Champion Stakes (open to three year olds) she won 2 Coronation Cups (mixing generations) and, as I said she won the Irish 2000 Guineas against the boys. So for you to talk your usual drivel about the best horses retired etc is complete bollocks. She ran 41 times and took on everything.

At least Crimeform agree with you they reckon Cracksans Champion Stakes was only 4lb worse.

If any of those other runners were ever considered seriously as possible winners why did the market pick Shardari as third fav after Bering? A horse that DB had already shown he had the measure of. It's because DB was judged to have only one serious rival, at least he was the only possible serious rival as Bering was still more hype than substance. Shardari obviously performed below par and the two that finished directly in front of him were also horses that DB had recently beaten easily in the KG. So the market was right, DB had only the French colt to beat if he was as good as his reputation. This strongest race in Europe stuff is all guff. It was deep with form horses definitely, but they were still horses not good enough to win a typical Arc. A deep race is no harder to win than one with one or two serious rivals, apart from them getting in the way of your run.

Triptych won 2 Champion Stakes (open to  three year olds) she won the Juddmonte (open to three year olds) she won the Irish Champion Stakes (open to three year olds) she won 2 Coronation Cups (mixing generations) and, as I said she won the Irish 2000 Guineas

As I said an admirably tough filly, but beating third raters each time. You should practice what you preach brigust, don't judge a horse only by the name of the races it wins

Anyways Brigust and Figgis, just looked at  Melbourne Cup, Finch looks big at 50+, nice profile, looks underrated judged on Tiberian run in Arc, he finished 1/3/4L in front of Tiberian off levels at Deauville, just 8 runs and Juddmonte colours make for an early investment at place odds

MJ, I usually found the MC a baffling race when I used to try to work it out, it doesn't play well to my methods so I've given up. I admire anyone who can suss it out though, so good luck.

Finch is visually a little ungainly, but got a decent engine a lengthy stride and improvement to come here is the video of that  defeat of Tiberian

https://goo.gl/uoLgs4

You want to throw stones Figgis?

The best horses your beloved Frankel beat.

Cirrus des Aigles. Took 40 runs to win 1st Group 1 how many times has that happened before? NEVER

Excelebration. Winner of German 2000 Gns. How many German 2000 Gns winners have won Gr1's in the UK? NONE

Farhh. Thirsk Hunt Cup winner. How many Thirsk Hunt Cup winners have won Gr1's in the UK? NONE

The best older horse came from Australia. How many times has that happened before? NEVER

The only classic Frankel won was the 2000 Gns. The next 5 home never won a Group 1 throughout their entire careers.
How many times has that happened in the last 50 years? NEVER

It was the weakest era in the last 50 years. That's why.

I could go on the list is endless but I do have a train to catch so bye Metro. I have a small fancy for Red Verdon to run a big one.

With due respect anyone discussing/debating with 'figgis' would probably need to have their senses reviewed, why? 'figgis' would repeatedly move the discussion parameter/goalpost to suit. It is prudent and sensible to 'ignore' this poster as no positive result could be envisaged/arose in the discussion/debate. 'figgis' is one-dimensional, and totally non-receptive to another point of view.

You want to throw stones Figgis?

No, just asking for more consistency and less hypocrisy. Horses like Harbinger and Frankel winning by wide margins can be rated highly and people might disagree with this due to which horses they think ran to form, etc, (usually tainted by the poster arrogantly believing that only great horses ran when the poster was in their prime). That's fair enough, but the high ratings can still be explained. Anyone rating DB's Arc a 140 performance however must've thrown the handicapping guidebook out of the window and taken a Strictly Come Dancing approach.

It is prudent and sensible to 'ignore' this poster

That's a shame, as I've found impossible123's posts invaluable. A highly informative racing expert who I have learned a huge amount from. Never afraid to nail his colours to the masts of the first 3 in the betting and even willing to add a couple more if the need arises.

Andrew in Sweden, back to Enable. How do you see her chances in America and what do you think of her at the price?

Hi Figgis,

Apologies, i did see your question earlier but work committments take precedence

A valid question and one i couldn't commit to 100% until i see the field, going and draw.

What i know of the runners today is not a negative, she's the form horse, the trip isn't an issue and used to travelling. Arc winners have a poor record and some decent types have been beaten in the race but they came off a hard season whereas Enable is very lightly raced with only 2 races this year.

JG has indicated she was only 85% fit for the Arc, and although we all know trainer/jockey comments can often be taken with a pinch of salt, even if she was 95% fit, it was still a superb run and it was only in the last 50 metres that she tired badly.

Churchill Downs is oval shaped like all US courses and there's enough straight to get a prominent position before the bend even from a poor draw. The straight is short (376 metres) compared to Longchamp although i don't see this an issue knowing her running style.

She ran Kempton well enough and all courses come alike to her anyway (never ran the same one twice).

I can't see any real negativity today, even in the unlikely event Roaring Lion does run (as has been suggested by conections in the media) so she's going to be short and 8/11 could be a bet.

I have to be honest i will be backing her if i can get close to that price on the day, but not with sums aka 2017.

Arc winners have a poor record

JG has indicated she was only 85% fit for the Arc

It's true it's very difficult to give a peak effort in the Arc and then win next time in the same season. Must admit I'm a bit undecided whether to call Enable's Arc win a peak effort. My ratings are on a much lower scale but still in pounds so the principle is the same. I'm only rating them on how fast they ran and accounting for weight carried and ground conditions, and I'm fully aware not all races are truly run. I have Enable's best effort 65 in last year's Oaks, which is high on my scale for a 3yo filly in June over 12f. 64 in the KG, but I wouldn't quibble about a 1lb difference so it was virtually the same standard. Only 59 for last year's Arc, which was due to the race being run slower than it could've been and she had plenty in hand.

I don't incorporate wfa, so I would hope for a good few pounds improvement on that 65 now she's a 4yo. However I can't get this year's Arc win any higher than 62. This is despite there being no excuse with the pace, so just shows what a relatively poor standard it was compared to most years. If she'd run in this year's KG she would've been well hammered running to that. Races like the King George often represent a different test than the Arc as it's usually run at a fast overall pace on quick ground and won by the runner who can get from A to B the fastest. The Arc isn't always like that as a horse can lay up with just a fair pace then use its finishing kick if it has one. This is why Treve was found out in the POW.

I'm confident Enable hasn't improved as a 4yo but the question is whether she could still run to the 65 mark from last year and if that would be good enough here. Looking at the opposition from this side of the pond it could well be. I backed Roaring Lion in the Derby as I thought he could turn around the form with Saxon Warrior, he did but was still well beaten. I began to question if he was as good as I thought but in view of his subsequent efforts it's obvious he didn't stay. And we're not talking about a horse who was just run out of it very late on, he was never getting home. So even though I believe horses can gain stamina with age and the US track should be easier it seems a big stretch to me that he'll stay just a few months later.

I'm absolutely positive that a peak Crystal Ocean would have the beating of Enable as a 4yo, but the KG obviously took a lot out of him. I've seen horses bounce back here after poor efforts but it would just be a guess. The only reason Waldgeist would turn the form around is if Enable goes backwards.

So for me there are only two ways I can see Enable can getting beat. One is if she regresses after the Arc and the other is Crystal Ocean returning to his best.

This is despite there being no excuse with the pace

i disagree figgis i had them running just a medium gallop in this years arc on that ground which was pretty decent imo

from a trip handicapping point of view it payed to be handy like enable was and like capri was, he also had a perfect trip, nelson still finished in 8th the pacemaker and only weakened outside the furlong so i don't buy what you are saying in regards pace. salouen also had a perfect trip and would of finished closer with a clear run, he is just an average group horse at best but the way the race was run allowed him to finish where he did

i had enable running to where she did in last years arc but i'm brutal in down grading horses, i am happy to say she had it easy that day trip wise and was overrated in her rating, she also had it easy again here but i'm happy how this years race was rated to a degree, although i still wanted to downgrade it even more

the horses who were compromised by the pace were sea of class and kew gardens who finished upsides the pace maker nelson, yes neither had a good draw or any pace in which to take them into the race from the draw, it is quite possible had they gone faster earlier they may well of been beaten further from there draw but because of just an even gallop sea of class especially didn't have to work hard to get over to a good position, people argue doyle should of used the filly early and i agree a tad but he clearly knew o'brien wasn't going to send any horses from the outside stalls and he decided he wanted the inside route, anyway i thought the winner just got tired to help her close her down but i didn't think sea of class got a terrible trip for her run style which essentially is a one run closer


I'm confident Enable hasn't improved as a 4yo i totally agree with you

I backed Roaring Lion in the Derby as I thought he could turn around the form with Saxon Warrior, he did but was still well beaten. I began to question if he was as good as I thought but in view of his subsequent efforts it's obvious he didn't stay.

why is it so obvious he didn't stay figgis?

personally i didn't think he liked the track or the camber or the ground

would you say to me categorically he wouldn't get 1m4f on a flat track like york on fast ground figgis??

So for me there are only two ways I can see Enable can getting beat. One is if she regresses after the Arc and the other is Crystal Ocean returning to his best.

crystal ocean once again did no running at all saturday, in fact i'm not sure any runners did any running bar the winner saturday myself, crystal ocean clearly went to his peak in the king george and i'm like you i thought poets word ran below himself in that race, so i have a feeling he just isn't that good or is regressing now and regressing quickly, his kempton run sounded the alarm bell to me and his run saturday was just horrible admittedly over a trip short of his best and maybe the ground also wasn't for him, i'd be astounded if he won again though before retirement, unless they can find a weak race abroad, which i suppose people looking at the breeders cup turf believe is a good opportunity, it may well be,

on a personal note if the filly does not improve from the arc she will not win how her odds say she will in this race. 4/7 is about right as she really should win but if she does not improve from her arc win she will only scrape home in this race how i've handicapped them. if like you say crystal comes back he will be an obvious danger but jeeze you need some balls to dip your hand in your pocket to back him

anyway she is a likely winner after having 2 pretty easy races at easy fractions imo so has not been deep in the red, so she is fresh for this and she has no excuses, personally though i think she will have to come forward 2/3 pounds in order to win easy so those taking the odds had better hope she does

Harry I mean I don't believe Enable was compromised by the pace. She had every opportunity to put up a decent speed figure, just wasn't able to with no excuse the way the race was run or her positioning.

would you say to me categorically he wouldn't get 1m4f on a flat track like york on fast ground figgis?

Well I wouldn't back him to anyway harry. Before the Derby I had been quite confident he would stay. I also thought he was primed for a new peak effort, with York not taking much out of him. I'd already backed him at decent odds, then just before the start there was a huge move for him on here. I thought well at least the yard are confident he's ready to deliver. During the race I thought he was travelling like the winner, but then he emptied. I think sometimes people can jump to premature conclusions that a horse doesn't stay off limited evidence. After watching him over shorter since though I find it hard to believe he failed at Epsom due to anything other than lack of stamina.

Maybe if he gets a very slow pace over 12f he could do it, I couldn't back him in that hope though.

listen fair enough figgis i would like to see one more run myself on fast going on a flat track although he is clearly a top class 1m2f horse, i would just want to see one more, i doubt we will though, however he clearly isn't a slow horse so maybe he is just a non stayer

i'm looking forward to this turf figgis or was however trying to get this filly is annoying me, as every time i think i can get her, she gets another perfect trip as she did in the arc but imo that is as good as she is, we will see i suppose but i don't buy this 85% fit nonsense i really don't, you cannot win races like the arc without being right on your game, ok she may have been just short but that was the reason she tired late on however she was still ready to run...

i do feel this race is curtains for me with her running 3rd time back off the bench as she is so fresh and this is key at the breeders imo she will be perfectly conditioned to give her running which in all fairness should be good enough against the locals...i have to say i didn't think they would take her and have hooked myself into a bet that she has killed yet again "wench"

Harry, I couldn't back Crystal Ocean with real confidence but I've seen horses run well in this after disappointing right before it, so it certainly wouldn't be a surprise if he won. The thing is I don't think he'd have to even run close to his KG effort to win, just a few pounds better than Saturday's effort could do it.

figgis he clearly has the form i'm just not that keen on his attitude, that doesn't mean i don't think he cannot win and his trainer has a great record at the meeting, i agree you can run badly in the run up to this and still do it, conduit who he twice won the race with, prepped in the arc after having a similar campaign to crystal ocean as a 4 year old, crystal did not go the same route in regards the arc and took in the trail at kempton, so i wonder how much he was pleasing him

then obviously took in the champion of which he also did as little running as he did at kempton so it is disappointing...i don't know figgis but do see the angle and like you say he could re-bound and if he was a big enough price i would give him serious consideration. i'm not sure how much rain is due at the meeting but it is around, which is holding me back of the horses i want to concentrate on but obviously if the rain came that will favour the filly imo and once again she will get her ideal against others that will not

one thing i would add figgis in regards crystal is does he like soft? and does he like synthetics? if that is what has bothered him and he catches a fast track all could be forgiven and he'll look a price if getting it so we will see what we get

Harry, he had won on good to soft at Goodwood last year but I'd say it's a different proposition attempting it at the superior pace they went on Saturday. I have used 2lbs a length for last Saturday's race and by my calculations Crystal Ocean's effort, as poor as it might've looked, would've seen him slightly ahead of Cloth Of Stars in the Arc. If Enable can't improve on her Arc form then Crystal Ocean wouldn't need to find a great deal more on better ground. If he could return to the KG form even better, I think he'd beat her comfortably.

i can live with that assessment figgis basically he has a fast ground pedigree as well and really when you break him down, his improvement has coincided with fast going, i suppose sometimes i'm a tad brutal and basically he is a galloper who just got done at kempton and then copped a soft track at ascot, so maybe i should be a tad more forgiving in my assessment of the horse.

i'm praying on a nice surface in america as still believe the filly is vulnerable on such a surface and that would bring the horse into the race that i like from over the pond and if we did cop fast ground i may have to change my thinking in regards crystal as well, especially if we can get the surface and he is a fair price, otherwise i have to say she will take all the beating in regards betting if getting her ideal imo and the race could become a wash out, if you can excuse the pun

I'm with you harry that Enable would've been fit enough. So even though I have her a bit below her very best in the Arc I'm not sure she is capable of bettering that, maybe that's as good as she is at the moment? Even though I don't think I have a lot running for me if I go against her there has to be a fair chance she'll regress from Longchamp. She's very short so I may split my stakes between laying her and backing CO, but will have to see.

yeah i don't buy she is going to come forward figgis and for me she ran no better than she did the previous season, although on that occasion she actually had her complete ideal which is softer going, this year she didn't but she got the job done against a very mediocre field but she did nothing different and copped another perfect trip from a perfect draw, it does not get any better in all fairness, i asked myself why i backed sea of class and the reason was i rated her better than enable at the weights but she is no world beater herself and ran to the pound in my book

a slow track would be enable's ideal and she would have to seriously regress in order to not collect, as so many others will be inconvenienced on the ground and i don't like laying horses on there ideal, so no doubt i will have to listen to how good she is after copping another ideal scenario

lets just pray we can cop a fast track as i will very keen to take her on, laying wise and with 2 horses i believe can beat her in this one who i have already backed and i may back up with crystal, we will have to see how this pans out on the ground

figgis what did you make of magical on saturday, i quite liked it...she is quite a nice a nice price in the filly and mare turf

what do make of her backing up the performance?

Harry I have it her best effort yet, an improvement of 4lbs, so yeah I think there's a fair chance she could repeat it.

yes i had it a big step forward for her and didn't think she had a gruelling race either, the american filly and magic wand make limited appeal to me and she is a very fair price in my book although the godolphin filly is a decnt type i wouldn't have her as good as this filly

just looking at the entries and magical is down to race in 2 races and the breeders cup turf is her first preference, so will have to wait now before deciding how to play the races, she would have a decent chance in both races

it's looking like roaring lion will take in the breeders cup classic, i would normally say good luck with that project with his pedigree and a normal american field of dirt horses but they really are a poor crop this year so an interesting betting heat

Harry, I agree about Magical. I have her Ascot win a couple of pounds higher than the Sea Of Class Arc run, although SOC could probably have raised that with a better trip. If Enable can't improve on her Arc performance Magical won't be far away.

looking at the weather, it really looks like being a wet meeting, so crystal oceans chances figgis look like diminishing, i'd say they will pull the plug and take him to japan

Yes harry, wouldn't harm Magical's chance though.

yes we will see what she is declared for i suppose but defo interesting figgis...to much guessing at this stage for me, i won't be playing till i see the draw tbh

Oct 25, 2018 -- 12:36PM, Figgis wrote:

Harry, I agree about Magical. I have her Ascot win a couple of pounds higher than the Sea Of Class Arc run, although SOC could probably have raised that with a better trip. If Enable can't improve on her Arc performance Magical won't be far away.

a good discussion and some good points raised 1-2 in the correct order

One of the best middle distance fillies ever

Agreed 100%

a proper race from the 2 fillies and once again she is a thorn in my side, it was a shame as magical was a very good price on the night and i played, we fight on but no complaints as both horses got a good trip in the race, although moore was positioned slightly more to the inner through the race, which was not the place to be, anyway well done winners the better horse won on the day

If we're talking about her achievements as a 4yo then fair enough. If we're talking about the level of form shown this year then I can think of many better older fillies.

Figgis,

You mean a 3 year old

No Andrew, I meant as a 4yo. I've already said that she was one of the best 3yo fillies I've seen and she put up THE fastest Oaks performance I've seen. I meant if we're talking about her achievements as a 4yo of winning another Arc and following up in America where others have failed it can only add to her reputation. For me personally though, I like to see a horse put up an outstanding level of form as a 4yo+. Enable's 4yo level is a long way short.

I think her injury this year was the best thing that could have happened for her as a racehorse. It allowed her to be kept off the track when the really hot races were being run. The form shown on her last two wins wouldn't have been anywhere near good enough to have won any of the earlier all age Gp1s, in my view of course

Roaring Lion would have given her a race but instead they chose to run him in a race where he would obviously have very little chance.

I think her injury this year was the best thing that could have happened for her as a racehorse. It allowed her to be kept off the track when the really hot races were being run. The form shown on her last two wins wouldn't have been anywhere near good enough to have won any of the earlier all age Gp1s

........ and if she hadn't been injured ? She won in spite of her injury and sickness.

Some revisionism going on here Andrew . Before the Arc the injury was said to be no problem and Gosden said he had her in fine fettle for last night's run. It will be interesting to see what they do with her next year. Personally I'd retire her now, but if going for next year's Arc I'd campaign her like this year. One easy prep before the big race and hope the opposition are as poor as they were this year. If they aim her at top races at the peak of the season like the King George, particularly if they also try to win a big 10f race, I think she'll be comprehensively beaten.

Hi Figgis, Andrew, the RP rate last nights performance 122, the quality of racing is thinning worldwide methinks!

I doubt she will race next year.

If she was a colt i could understand retiring, but if she was mine i would want to run her in the 2019 Arc and create history that would be very unlikely to be equalled.

...... I think she'll be comprehensively beaten

By ?

MJ, I agree. I think Gosden will know they got away with it this year and is just prolonging the retirement announcement to keep her in the spotlight, but we'll see. From a betting point of view I hope they keep her in training, as there is sure to be a good opportunity to cash in on opposing her.

By ?

I have no idea yet. It's just a percentage call as this year's Arc form just wouldn't cut it in most King Georges and certainly not in the vast majority of top 10f races.

From a betting point of view I hope they keep her in training, as there is sure to be a good opportunity to cash in on opposing her.

Good luck with plan B, layers haven't been happy with plan A recently

Yes Figgis,  These Group contests word wide resemble  Argentinian  Group1s these days, the trainers and breeders love it, the public will see through it, if they look

To be brilliant these days, you must be a mare receiving weight, the breeders I believe have exploited this edge and you could argue the breed is changed.

To be brilliant these days, you must be a mare receiving weight, the breeders I believe have exploited this edge and you could argue the breed is changed.

So when will the boys get weight from the girls

Good luck with plan B, layers haven't been happy with plan A recently

I don't think anyone has laid her with any real confidence yet. I actually backed her at short odds at Kempton as I considered it too good an opportunity for her to lose. It's a bit like those people who said early on that England would get nowhere in this year's World Cup (and I was one of them) until faced with the realisation of every poor team they ended up being drawn against and having to backtrack. Maybe I'll do the same with Enable next year but I think it's long odds against she'll be as lucky to face such poor opposition next year.

Winx, Enable, Magical etc etc etc I think I see a pattern says trigger

2.32 and change on yielding ground the first two are 9L clear of the rest. Outstanding performance by both fillies.

80/1 in 3rd and 100/1 in 4th. Not that that is necessarily always a negative, but if racing over here Magical would've received 5lbs instead of 4lbs. Meaning if Enable really has improved in line with wfa then Magical has developed into a 3yo filly almost as good as Enable was last year. Nah

I think Roaring Lion and Enable will have the measure of Winx over 10f or 12f respectively as Winx despite winning 29 consecutive races has beaten non-entities so far; A shame she was not at the Breeders Cup.

Kerrin McEvoy drawn 19, so sensibly drops in and sits last or next to last until about 4 furlongs to go then quickens and wins cosily. Great unhurried ride not dissimilar to James Doyle`s in the Arc. Settle,travel,quicken and battle. What more can you ask, just sometimes you win and sometimes you don`t. In general the latter if you`re on the best horse on the day.