Lah Ti Dar Oaks

You've a fan here also on bigtime at 20/1.

Hopefully go to York next.

Let's hope we have a live one here :-)

20 did, 11 or less does not with doubts about her target, the going, jockey preference etc. etc. I will wait until I see the overnight decs thanks.

Not many Oaks contenders in the 1000G so chance for La ti day to put a pointer down today.

Wild Illusion at 16/1 is very overpriced for the Oaks. She ran a nice race in the Guineas for a filly crying out for 12 furlongs.

extra 2F right up her street.

Beat some decent horses there.

I'm totally baffled by the 4/1 favouritism allotted to Lah Ti Dar for the Epsom Oaks; she took a while to beat these non-entities, and only won a Listed race today (not Group). I believe some of the fillies that contested/missed the 1000G today eg Happily, September, Wild Illusion, etc, can easily better her performance and usurped her at the top of this market in due course.

I think its the sxtra 2F which people/bookies seeing as more improvement, finishing the races well. They where also well strung out today.

Also ran ok on a track with undulations, quicker going, and was only her 2nd run so further improvement likely.

Though 4/1 does seem a bit short now.

Interesting that out of the £37k matched on Oaks here £12k is on her.

Apparently the Irish 1000G will probably be the next race for Happily, according to AOB, thus almost eliminating her participation here as the two races is just one week apart.

Don't fancy Happily over 12 furlongs on pedigree. I think 10 furlongs will be her optimum trip.

4/1 is still value if  she gets there in one piece. Frankie really rates her and the extra 2 furlongs is what she is crying out for now. Really hard to find anything that might take her on at the moment or bred to improve over the longer distance.

Fast ground and getting unbalanced on the track seem bigger dangers to me.

September and Wild Illusion are more stoutly bred and have superior proven form and are much bigger prices. Lah Ti Dar looks a lovely filly for the future, but my concern would be that she may not be forward enough to win the Oaks having made her debut just a few weeks before.

Like Cracksman in the Derby last year she may need more time to mature and show her best.

With September not guaranteed to make the gig, according to AOB's latest, this could be handed to Lah Ti Dar. However, AOB has Flattering - a 10l winner at Cork - for the Lingfield Trial; she is only 11/8 with 'paddies'.

I'd like to see Wild Illusion here too.

Don’t see how September and Wild Illusion are more stoutly bred. On all evidence So Mi Dar’s sister has pretty much the ideal pedigree.

Wild Illusion may come on for the longer trip but doesn’t look anything special. Highgarden looked in need of the run at Sandown last week and may come on significantly in one of the trials.

Lah ti Dar and Wild Illusion are both by the miler Dubawi. The former comes from a middle distance family whereas the latter's dam was a 2 mile stayer. September also comes from a middle distance family and her sire Deep Impact is a strong influence for stamina as he himself was not only a top class middle distance horse, he was also a Group 1 winner at up to 2 miles.

In my view, they are without doubt more stoutly bred and will relish the step up to 12 furlongs having already shown Group 1 form over a shorter trip. So your statement that it's hard to find anything bred to improve over the longer trip is simply incorrect.

I was talking about being bred to win the Oaks. Being out of a 2 mile winner has no relevance if you show mediocre form over 12 furlongs. The current favourite has the best proven form and stamina of any of the contenders in the race, bred to win a classic and Gosden obviously knows the time of day. She’s a huge horse and doubt we’ll see her over 10 furlongs again.

All the other horses have questions to prove...maybe something will stake a claim at Chester, Lingfield or York.

I’m probably going to have a small e/w Wild Illusion ante post as I think the race will cut up and may only have 5-7 runners. However, I can see her going to France if they think La ti Dar is too strong in the Oaks.

Being out of a 2 mile winner has no relevance if you show mediocre form over 12 furlongs. The current favourite has the best proven form and stamina of any of the contenders in the race


She has won a maiden and a listed race. The other two have Group 1 form over a mile and have more stamina in their pedigrees than the current Fav and will appreciate the step up to 12 furlongs.

Are you suggesting that they will not show further improvement when stepping up in trip given their pedigrees?

You can argue about pedigree until the cows come home; but to the naked eye it is obvious Lah Ti Dar will improve again over the Oaks trip. She has a good cruising speed and takes time to pick up. Over both 12f runs she has powered away in the last half furlong.

She looks a bit special to me and LTO had them strung like washing behind over an inadequate trip, and on ground that is a bit lively for her. Epsom water well so over 14f she should be able to have enough time to get into gear and rout the field.

You are taking a lot on trust to suggest going from 8 to 12f is a given for the guineas runners regardless of the pedigree.

Sorry over both 10f runs I meant to say.....

No doubt she will improve stepping up in trip and she will have every chance in the Oaks if she continues to improve and is forward enough in her progression on the big day. My issue is with the suggestion that others in the field won't also improve stepping up in trip when it is obvious to anyone who studies pedigrees that they will.

Best proven form? ROFL.

I'd have a placed runner in a Gp 1 mile race over a winner of a 10f race with no Gp 3/Listed winner in it if the horse has credible pedigree eg Diminuendo who finished 3rd in a similar contest to Wild Illusion and won the Oaks. I understand LTD was finishing her latest race better than the others but that could mean the others did not see out the trip as well as she did.

The price of LTD is pants solely because of her trainer, and not the quality of the opponents she'd beaten. As such, I'd rather have Saxon Warrior at 11/10 for the Derby than LTD at 4/1 for the Oaks.

The current favourite has the best proven form and stamina of any of the contenders in the race.

The race is the Oaks - 1 1/2 miles...not 1 mile.

Proven form in relation to staying 1 mile 1/2.. 1mile 1/4 at Newmarket.

Looked well, took keen hold, tracked leaders until went 2nd halfway, ridden 3f out, driven and upsides over 1f out, ran green and edged right 1f out, soon led, drew clear inside final furlong, eased near finish.

It's not rocket science. She is the only horse that proves she stays. The winners of the other trials could remove her from favouritism but if the race was today and you had the chance to own one of the horses in the race (forget odds) the safest option for 6/10 people would be LTD. That is why she is favourite.

Taghrooda followed a similar path for Gosden a few years ago (was rated 89 when she won the Pretty Polly which was over 20lb off Group 1 winners) . I'm sure you were on here dismissing her chances as well.

I think LTD is the present fav solely for two reasons eg her trainer and uncertainty about key participants eg September, Wild Illusion, Magical and Happily; she's proven she stays 10f, not 12f (yet).

Flattering won a 10f race by a wide margin despite showing greenness, and her trainer has pitched her in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (why?) which she's only 11/8, but 25/1 for this, and LTD is 4/1 only. Legatissimo won the 1000G; she also won a 9.5f Listed race going away prior yet was outstayed in the Oaks; she only started at 5/2 for this race.

On the other LTD is 4/1 presently with no concrete form eg only won a Listed race (not Lingfield or Musidora Oaks Trial); none of the beaten horses won a Group or Listed race. LTD cannot be compared to So Mi Dar either who beat the colts in a Derby Trial and the Musidora.

Tagroodha was something special, and LTD could one day be as good as her but needs to improved monumentally to do so.

Another shocking Oaks trial today, surely Gosden and AOB are trying to get a soft Listed race for some of their lesser lights.
Musidora on Weds looks a weak affair as well but could point to a possible French Oaks contender. Highgarden the fav looked short of pace at Sandown and doubt they will take on LTD in the Oaks.

September is friendless in the market and looks increasingly unlikely to turn up. So currently the only expected runners are -

LTD
Wild Illusion
Magic Wand
Forever Together

Can see a field of 6 or 7 at this stage on 1st June.

Our friends at Betbrighht are still 4/1 LTD but I was only offered £5 at that price and 5/2 anything above that...shocking. I can see LTD being 9/4 by next Weds evening.

The Oaks picture is looking increasingly sub-standard with no outstanding performers from the Trials at Chester midweek and Lingfield today; the present fav has no Group status credential either. Unless Wild Illusion and September show up, and with Happily (Irish 1000G) and Magical (1000G Trial tomorrow), this could fall nicely for LTD, I think. But I still cannot have LTD at 3/1 despite backing her sister So Mi Dar against Minding (yes Minding) in 2016 Oaks.

After last year with Enable beating Rhododendron this year's renewal could turn out to be a damp squib unless September and Wild Illusion show up.

Dreadful trials this week. That is why the Flattering was 6/4 for the pointless Lingfield Oaks trial and 25/1 for the race as you pointed out a few days ago.

Totally agree the race could be a damp squib with only a few runners, but it’s mainly because of the poor quality of this years 3 year olds. Must be the the worst for a number of years. Group 1 winners from last year would struggle to win G2 and even G3 in the last 5 years.

September is above average but is still not a standout performer. She should have beaten Laurens at Newmarket (cost me a few quid as well) but that is good but not outstanding form. Wild Illusion could improve for the step up in trip but didn’t look like she was crying out for another 1/2 mile in the guineas. I’ve backed her at 12/1 e/w as I think the boys in blue will run her whatever.

Jack Bauer '24' 07 May 18 17:26 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,420 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
September and Wild Illusion are more stoutly bred and have superior proven form and are much bigger prices. Lah Ti Dar looks a lovely filly for the future, but my concern would be that she may not be forward enough to win the Oaks having made her debut just a few weeks before.

Like Cracksman in the Derby last year she may need more time to mature and show her best.

What you say has so truth in it. so mi dar has never been tried beyond 10 furlongs for example although she surely would have been if she hadn't been injured before the oaks. dar ri me was a 10 furlong/12 furlong horse. dubawi was a miler/10 furlong horse so there is some stamina doubt there.

on the other hand assuming that the other fillies will improve past her when they step up to 1 mile four seems a trifle optimistic. how quick you are seems to me more relevant than being a certain stayer. Countless times i've backed "certain stayers" in the belief that they'll outstay their otherwise quicker rivals and curse them when they turn out to be hopelessly slow.

in my view the oaks is still wide open. I'd like to see the stoute filly crystal hope run it it as she could be a player.

A lot of it comes down to common sense/feel and your own visual impression. another gosden horse, golden horn also looked an unlikely stayer on pedigree. And yet if you watched his races before the derby he always shaped like a stayer. the way lah ti dar runs, staying very well at the end of her races, marks her down for me as a filly likely to improve for the step up in trip, not get worse. I'd probably be more concerned if she was cantering all over them at the mile pole and just scrambled home.

whether she's good enough, i'm less sure about. clearly although she's done well so far she's nowhere near the golden horn league.

The fact she is trained by Gosden and ridden by Dettori are two massive bonuses imo.
Think she will be hard to beat but having not heeded the advice from the OP (great shout maleuk01) I can't back her now.

Of the rest Forever Together @ 16/1 looks the e/w value to me.

3/1 or so is no value at all when the horse might not run but I think that the plan so far by Gosden screams Oaks winner. Nice maiden at Newbury and Pretty Polly (listed) may not be Group races but the manner of her wins were very impressive. The major doubt for me is the track. Both of her runs were on lovely flat straights (apart from the Newmarket dip) and Epsom is a very different test for what looks a long striding filly who has yet to have to weave through a big field. Frankie may need to be prominent and then come wide in the straight unless she is already in front round Tattenham corner. I have no problem with the pedigree with Singspiel in there.

September looking like a definite non runner - was macthed at 100 just now, and still plenty of 25/1 available.

Bill Esdaile on Twitter:

September won’t make the Oaks @EpsomRacecourse ... ‘’she’s only trotting and we’ve run out of time” says Aidan O’Brien

Bill Esdaile also on Twitter:

“Happily will be aimed at the Irish 1000 Guineas with the Investec Oaks lovely to come too soon”

that's sunk a lot of ante-post betting slips with september.

she's small and there must be a possibility that they think she hasn't trained on.

retirement and an early visit to the paddocks beckons.

Probably LW.

This is now looking a straight fight between LTD at and Wild Illusion in my book. Chester form is well behind that of WI at best and market reflects that.

Let’s hope only 3 horses run

For my bets * :-)

Possible Oaks winner out today   JG  HORSE  will be interesting if wins well, odds will shorten rapidly.  BUT if beat non runner I presume,  be lucky.

What horse is that as the maidens at Salisbury he has 2 but they are not entered in the Oaks?

Think he was on about Highgarden yesterday at York.

Now that Wild Illusion is confirmed for the Oaks and not Irish 1000G she's the one for me; she's Group 1 form, with Magic Wand as back up.

non/runner after a poor blood test.
the perils of ante-post betting.

Sincere commiseration to backers of Lah Ti Dar because of an unsatisfactory blood count this morning. All of you must be gutted, I'm sure. I'd 1st hand of it when her sister So Mi Dar was scratched in the year that Minding won.

Very disappointing. Would have been worse if not aware of the situation and able to cash out bets at x4 stake on 356. Suppose a 4/1 winner without having to run isn’t that bad

I hate this game
no cash out too late for me

Cruel mistress this game. Absolutely gutted LTD is a non runner.

If Wild Illusion goes as well might need to reconsider AP Iin future.

That's it for me with AP betting now. Will only do AP with NRNB.

Last 3 classics and all 4 AP bets non runners inc. Lah Ti Dar @ 16/1. In fact 3 of Gosdens with Without Parole and Emraarty non runners in the guineas. That's on the back of plenty of non runners @ Cheltenham. And the few that saw the track invariably had worse E/W terms there due to various bookie offers.

p.s Have Sevenna Star @ 66/1 and Sun Maiden @ 25/1 in the Derby/Oaks respectively. If both of these don't run I think I may give up racing altogether; let alone AP punting!!

I'd be surprised if Sun Maiden is confirmed let alone declared and Sevena Star needs a downpour to run....so brace yourself Charwell.

That is why I very rarely bet AP.

13 declared, no Sun Maiden but Sea Of Class is in along with 8 from AOB.

Sun Maiden out = 4 NR's from 4 AP bets. Fully expect my L31 to oblige of non runners for Sevenna Star.

Never again for me now the shyte house trainers. Weak fields in both and top English stables running scared to aim at lower sights. Cowards leaving me fuming

unclepuncle 13 May 18 17:07

Of the rest Forever Together @ 16/1 looks the e/w value to me.

Splendid.

I doubt if they would have run Lah Ti Dar on that going yesterday. Yorkshire Oaks on decent going might be on the cards.

Any further news on her? She's as short as 7/4 but best price 5/2 for the Ribblesdale at Ascot. Nevertheless, she's not for me as the opposition could be even greater than the Oaks itself, I believe.

She's out again; low blood count was responsible for her missing the Oaks (25th May), and now The Ribblesdale (21st June). Similarly So Mi Dar in the past, not only did she miss Royal Ascot she also missed the Irish Oaks. Will history repeat itself one more time? Will Lah Ti Dar also miss the Irish Oaks too on 21st July? Let's hope not, but I'm sceptical...after So Mi Dar, and yesterday Legends Of War; once bitten, twice shy or maybe twice bitten, thrice shy, as far as Gosden's concerned, for me anyway.

Runs in the Galtres Stakes at Listed level tomorrow - almost 3 months or 40 minutes too late depending how you look at it.

Maybe the hopes of Spring will be fulfilled in Autumn.

Has to be a lay for me. Yes, she looked hugely promising in the Spring, but has a 4 lb penalty and has been off four months. The ground is not apparently what they want and she did look very green last time out when beating very ordinary rivals. Rivals? Sun Maiden can be given another chance, and I quite like What a Home.

no bet for me - but I see both Lah Ti Dar and Sun Maiden are in the St Leger...

So much for the 4lb penalty.

She is a machine. Absolutely gutted my two AP Oaks bets @ big prices on Lah Ti Dar and Sea of Class. Neither run and either would have absolutely hacked up

gutting she never ran in the oaks

surely would have hosed up

Is she heading for The Leger? I think Gosden mentioned the jockey's opinion was against that of management. I wonder who he'd have meant.

apparently she goes vermeille / arc . well overfaced imo . shes to weak and inexperienced , though obviously very good . i remember wishing mandesha ran in the arc as a 3yo after winning the vermeille . i lumped on next year , but , she wasnt  as good a filly at 4 , she was a professional at that 3 though and i felt connections missed the boat . here i think they may destroy the boat if they do

as i speak i,m favouring sea of class to win the arc

Still left in The Leger after today's decs, as such been shortened by some major bookies into 3/1 despite her price for The Vermeille on sunday remains at 11/10.

Can anyone envisage her running in The Leger over 14f when her main aim is The Arc (12f)? Bookies being naughty and exhibiting a red-herring business behaviour, I think.