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joevalue147
14 Feb 18 15:49
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Date Joined: 20 May 11
| Topic/replies: 1,540 | Blogger: joevalue147's blog
Any news on this beast?    I see he's in the betting for the Close Brothers handicap.  Hell's Kitchen and now Divine Spear have ran badly on their latest starts but bookmakers have pushed out the Nicholl's runner in the betting also, even though he has'nt ran in a good while. Just wondering is Cheltenham the target at all?
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Report Millerracing67 March 1, 2018 4:53 PM GMT
According to his atr stable tour: it's the Close B nov Hcap.
Report The Dragon March 2, 2018 5:19 PM GMT
10/1 im om at 14
Report unclepuncle March 3, 2018 7:19 AM GMT
Obvious plot is obvious - I reckon it will go off 5/1f or less, but still get beat.Cry
Report nocturnal March 3, 2018 9:43 AM GMT
Nicholls on record saying Wonderful Charm (foxhunters),his best chance?

That tells me he has some decent handicappers lurking,the problem with a lot of his older horses are they get hammered due to the trainer,not the horse.
He has a poor record in some handicaps,others very different.

Movewiththetimes is one of 6 JP entries,trained both sides sea.The build up to the Fez is full of talking horses,finding out where that emanates is half the fun,95% time its not the stable,a build up where punters are given the "Mushroom Treatment",fed loads sh!t and kept in the dark.

Every single gamble I,m dubious of,If there was just one decent journalist able to question liabilities from these "firms",they would run a mile,in my opinion they are industry led,it would take very little to shorten something looking at their current MO.

The handicap in question is worth £40,000........Thats all......The advent of exchanges has opened up some dark doors,a fancied horse might take 10 times that amount on the WIN market here alone,let alone how much in the shops etc

My old rule of thumb was 75%-25%.....the ratio of tryers to sleepers.

Looking at next week,50%-50% would be my guess,such is the money that is available to those that take that path,so our odds of finding a winner are cut in half before a hoof has moved.

This magnificent festival is a pale shadow of what it once was,Leopardstown have taken the lead here,they have made it clear from the start,you are not above the law,Cheltenham need to send out the same message,there are changes that need addressing.....

15 horses in a novice race?
6 different entries for one horse.
Multiple handicap entries in same race......many of them in there with no intention to run?

Not what this meeting was for.....crying out for someone to be asking the questions,just who has allowed the Festival to get to this.

Final Rant....between October to March how many tracks do we race on artificial ground?

I hope it p!sses down.....only then will they dig it up and let mother nature decide,how it always was,how it should always be.

I will get to the negatives another day.
Report Facts March 3, 2018 10:15 AM GMT
You want Cheltenham dug up ??!
Report nocturnal March 3, 2018 11:46 AM GMT
What I want matters not....what do trainers and owners want?

The mutterings over the track at the last two meetings are just the start,who in their right mind decided that Cheltenham racecourse should have complete control over what type of ground our Championship events and most competitive races are run.

This is not about about safety or horse welfare,how many meetings were called off before the amazing drainage was introduced,because of bottomless or firm ground?

Take the Pertemps series.....does the entry come with a disclaimer?..."be aware if your horse wins on heavy ground we will try our damndest to make sure it will be be gd/sft at best"

So why enter a horse that wants soft/heavy ground in that series.....effectively the course where the final is run, can ruin any chance your horse may have of winning the Prize?



Imagine laying asphalt for the whole of the Tour De France

Playing every Major in golf on astroturf greens........all in the name of fairness?

No.......each venue is unique,be that racing/golf/cycling, wherever,that is part of the appeal.

So yes.....If the course needs watering annually in March I think there Is a massive problem,our "Olympics"should be run on natural ground,not artificially affected ground.Driven by some desire of anonymous people,who think THEY can control racing history.

Truly Astonishing this Is allowed to happen......Utter disgrace in my humble opinion.
Report equine flew March 3, 2018 12:36 PM GMT
Perhaps a little cynical nocturnal.  I would say 99% of horses running at Cheltenham will be running for their life nocturnal, it is the shop window of racing and if a trainer/jockey can get a good window it can really open doors in terms of new owners/rides.

Yes liquidity is good, but that is tempered by the fact that you horse will likely be a massive price and hence need to lay a lot more to make money.   Far better for the crooks to pull a short fav at Sedgefield or somehwere imo.

What we do have is horses running because their owners want a runner, often despite of not ideal conditions, class, ground, track, trip, etc.
Report nocturnal March 3, 2018 1:37 PM GMT
Afternoon Equine......Cynical ?.....Probably in some respects.

There are many races I can watch at this meeting,where having an investment is a distraction.The coming together of the novice form from both sides of the water,hurdlers and chasers always fascinating.The Championship races take centre stage,watching the pretenders trying to upstage those that  have already been there,thats what Cheltenham should be about,and sets the pulse racing.

Your point regarding owners/trainers is valid,something the entry system needs to address,there is a real danger that monopolising entries by bigger stables will discourage smaller owners/trainers.These are the lifeblood of the sport,they will always struggle in terms of investment,just having a runner may be their goal no doubt,having that denied by sleepers from powerful stables must be frustrating.

Lets see about Cynical......With a Quiz Question Anyone ?

28 Races at 2017 Festival
14 Horses won at double figure odds

40/1,33/1,25/1,20/1,16/1,16/1,16/1,14/1,14/1,12/1.......to name a few.

HOW MANY WINNING HORSES STARTING PRICE WAS BIGGER THAN OPENING SHOW ?? ANSWER BETWEEN 1-28


We are told annually how strong the markets are.

My guess was 12 started bigger odds.

Anyone ????????
Report GI MAC March 3, 2018 3:54 PM GMT
1
Report nocturnal March 3, 2018 4:32 PM GMT
Afternoon GI.....1  Shocked .....Come on GI,we both know there is tremendous value out there

"Come Racing"

"The Irish are backing this as if defeat is out of the question"

"Best Odds Guaranteed"

"Money Back If Dickie Meets One On A Good Stride"

The 1st drifter on day 1.....Altior 2/9 to 1/4 fav....Get In you beauty,tipping line dream.

Anymore sensible guesstimates.

Got your message GI,get back to you shortly,this pessimistic approach has been noted Happy
Report Facts March 4, 2018 9:24 AM GMT
Can't wait for the Handicap races( my only area of betting on horseracing). Some good bets to be had in my experience.Cool
Report nocturnal March 4, 2018 12:26 PM GMT
Punters had to wait until races 6/7 THURSDAY for the next drifters.

Lets Dance 11/10 to 11/8

Domesday Book 33/1 to 40/1

Finally day 4

Rock The World 9/1 to 10/1


Astonishingly 24 WINNERS at last years meeting started at the same price or Lower than opening show.

Take out Domesday Book a complete rag at 40/1......he only drifted 7 pts.


Less than 2 PTS EXTRA ON ALL THE WINNERS OF THE OTHER 27 RACES AT LAST YEARS FESTIVAL.


24 of 28 winners were strongly supported according to the bookmaking industry.


I will leave you all to draw your own conclusions, if your thinking of having a bet at SP THIS YEAR.
Report GI MAC March 4, 2018 2:08 PM GMT
Afternoon noc
So the answer to your question was 4? I wasn't far away......
Report nocturnal March 4, 2018 2:53 PM GMT
Afternoon GI

The answer was indeed 4......shocking statistics at arguably the strongest betting meeting of the year for National Hunt fans.

Altior 2/9 - 1/4
Lets Dance 11/10 - 11/8
Domesday Book 33/1 - 40/1
Rock The World 9/1 - 10/1

This is just scratching the surface,take a look at how many placed horses were "Backed".

Just a quick amble through some of the other big saturday races.....there is a pattern.

So if there is a racing journalist out there who wants a story......

Overwhelming evidence of "Price Fixing".......?????

Lets see what betting 2018 brings......pretty sure many know before it starts.
Report GI MAC March 4, 2018 3:16 PM GMT
Happens every year at the Grand National, there was a bit of a story about it a few years ago, bookies taking advantage of once a year punters, but not much since. Bookmakers are dodgy feckers, always have been, I'm not sure if anything can be done about it?
Report nocturnal March 4, 2018 3:43 PM GMT
2017 Grand National

On course book percentage.......154%......Shocked...no

One for arthur 14/1-14/1

Cause of causes 16/1-16/1

Saint are 25/1-25/1

Blaklion 10/1-8/1

Gas line boy 50/1-50/1


The 1st 5 home last year.....None drifted from opening show....Blaklion was shorter.

Another case of punters having this game by Nads.....1st 5 supported again


Horseracing BINGO.......ANOTHER FULL HOUSE ON THE 2017 NATIONAL......Sad
Report equine flew March 4, 2018 8:49 PM GMT
I guess to provide some context noctural, it may be worth knowing what percentage of all horses at Cheltenham shorten from their opening show (even the losers).   Obviously I am not sure if you have access to those sorts of stats.
Report nocturnal March 4, 2018 10:32 PM GMT
http://www.skysports.com/racing/results/betting-shows/758926/cheltenham/17-03-2017/randox-health-county-handicap-hurdle

Just one race here from last year....the county hurdle,a huge betting heat.

1 Arctic Fire 25/1......20/1
2 Lami Serge 33/1.....25/1
3 Ozzie the oscar 66/1......50/1
4 Air horse one 11/1......10/1
5 Winter escape 10/1......9/1


Uncanny,top 5 horses returned lower than opening show,all backed again apparently.

As I said earlier,if you start looking at the placed horses,it gets worse.


Came across this while looking at the SP of horses I backed last year,doing some research for this years meeting,the more I looked,the worse it gets.

Shocking..........as you can see from link....freely available to anyone to check.

Judge yourselves.


(ps message sent GI)
Report GI MAC March 5, 2018 8:06 PM GMT
cheers, I'm not impressed with the Moon Racer comment Laugh
Report nocturnal March 5, 2018 8:57 PM GMT
I was being kind Grin

Probably p!ss up now.
Report Hibore March 10, 2018 10:07 PM GMT
Movewiththetimes runs in the brown advisory.
Report kingG111111 March 15, 2018 5:28 PM GMT
Lmfao bunch of mug punters
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