Horse Antepost

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01 Feb 18 14:34
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,441 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
One of my favourite races of the year and a quick perusal of the  entries that came out today leads me to Fire Brigade @ 14/1.

Just got touched off in the Silver Cambridgeshire and of the three who pulled clear that day he was on the outside - the strip along the stands rail being the place to be in the final 2f (as evidenced by Dolphin Vista coming home alone in the following days CambridgeshireLoveLove).

Must admit I was hoping for 20's but I can understand his position near the top of the market and Michael Bell has said he is definitely on target for it.

A few others that look interesting but not sure if they are on target or will get a run. Even Fire Brigade may get balloted out.
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Report SOULDANCER February 1, 2018 8:17 PM GMT
Not betting yet, might wait till the day.
Naturally started with Fahey and O'Meara.
  GABRIAL is the one I like from Fahey camp, 4lb lower than when 4th last year but I'd want a claimer to get the ride again.
O'Meara won it last year with Bravery but as dropped 5lb to 95 so would need penalty to get in.Also has LORD GLITTERS, lightly raced improver last year, will come with late run so need luck. ESCOBAR another for O'Meara, new to the stable,he often improves them,looks the type. On 97 so another that might not make cut. I would worry about soft ground for this one.
  The other I looked at OH THIS IS US was 2nd last year off the same mark, backed down to 7-2 favourite connections could be back with some intent again.
Report Madhu February 1, 2018 9:07 PM GMT
I like the look of the Silver Cambridgeshire form also but I prefer the more lighly-raced pair in Addeybb and Afaak over Fire Brigade as I’m not that keen on his pedigree and number of starts, and he looks a fair bit smaller than the other two with regards for going on as a 4-year-old. I would think he is sure to get in though given his 98 OR and the amount of horses listed without an OR having not run for a couple of years. Of the trio Afaak with his CD win on soft sways it.

Ballard Down  looks interesting as he has some smart older horses in Allied Powers and Always Friendly in his bottom line, is fairly lightly-raced for a 5-year-old  and his annihilation of Master The World last July on soft ground at Newmarket, after running all year on the AW was something else; but he ain’t run since then and he is up 9lb which tempers things a bit, however, the stable form after that was abysmal for months and I can see William Knight booking Charles Hills apprentice Callum Shepherd (8 winners for the stable) to take a few pound off.

Old favourite Thundering Blue catches the eye lower down but he is far from certain to get in and I think the drop down to a mile will be too sharp for the grey.

The stand-out for me is Lord Glitters, even off 107. David O'Meara and Daniel Tudhope showed their mastery with Bravery in this last year and in 2015 Mondialiste was unlucky(low draw disadvantage given the way the race panned out and on his own from a long way out) to be beaten a neck off 105. There is any number of horses who could run to their mark and Lord Glitters would have to run to around 5lb better than in the Balmoral Handicap but I can quite easily see him doing that.

I’ve analysed my ante-post betting over the years and betting onward from the 5-day-stage with a jockey booked is much more profitable for me so I intend to wait until that stage to have a wager.
Report unclepuncle February 2, 2018 2:41 PM GMT
At this stage, to my eyes anyway, it looks like it could be a much higher quality race than last year with plenty of top stables with lightly raced 4/5 year olds so I wouldn't be looking at any of last years runners.

LG is the obvious one but will have top weight and I would expect they would be reluctant to put a claimer on given his run style.
Report RozelKid February 19, 2018 10:11 AM GMT
A couple interest me at this stage.

Richard Hannon's Oh This Is Us at 20/1 - won well in Dubai the other day

David Menuisier's Contrapposto at 40/1 - lightly raced - been running in group races and it looks like they plan to lower his sights to hopefully get off the mark.
Report gpz6316 February 20, 2018 12:20 AM GMT
id be hard pressed to look beyon fire brigade . best of luck
Report gpz6316 February 20, 2018 12:24 AM GMT
just anything that excelled in the autumn mud and he did , he was going on ,lightly raced and will find similar on the day
Report gpz6316 February 20, 2018 12:27 AM GMT
ya a thumbs up from me . if he gets there will be hard to beat
Report metro john February 20, 2018 9:29 PM GMT
at this stage a small e/w interest on Onenightidreamed looks possible will get in and a reasonable price for sure!
Report deepingfox February 20, 2018 10:45 PM GMT

* Progressive profile,
* Very good trainer
* Best form in big field handicap win at York
* Turned out only 8 days later at Ascot and didn't figure.

Also like same trainers other runner, tied in with form for Adeyyb and Fire Brigade.

However this horse seems to have more size and I am hoping is better than his stable companion, which would rate him in front of the market favourites.
Report Facts March 18, 2018 12:43 PM GMT
Have taken the 16/1 about Oh This Is Us. Only just touched off in last year's race and following the same preparation route this time. Class act.
Report unclepuncle March 19, 2018 1:03 PM GMT
5 Day decs out and Fire Brigade is number 27 so still needs 5 to come out to get a run.
Report johnnyrant March 19, 2018 2:01 PM GMT
I'm seeing Fire Brigade at 21, uncle?
Report unclepuncle March 19, 2018 2:09 PM GMT
They must have just updated it then - good news.Grin
Report ReaseHeath March 19, 2018 2:54 PM GMT
not looked properly yet but worth highlighting that Lord Glitters also holds an entry in the Listed Mile race on the same card...

O'Meara also has Escobar at number 24 on the list - used to be with Hugo Palmer but lost his way last season, although Escobar has no form to speak of on soft ground.

Zabeel Prince, Crazy Horse, Dark Red, Kings Gift,Via Via and Another Touch all entered in the Listed race as well. 

Think I'll have to wait.
Report Facts March 19, 2018 4:23 PM GMT
With OTIU a non runner, have switched to Big Country ( 12/1 wh)
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2018 10:07 AM GMT
Ryan Moore booked for Fire Brigade.Grin

Just hope the draw doesn't scupper me like it did last year.Cry
Report Deptford March 20, 2018 11:42 AM GMT
Leader Writer, given very easy ride at Lingfield, no problem with the going, 20/1 too big, Skybet offered me a fiver ew!! Shocking, then cut to 16/1, Jocked up, Fran Berry, that do for me, though will back Glitter on day if run
Report SOULDANCER March 20, 2018 5:00 PM GMT
DONNCHA e.w. 25-1

Was the unlucky one in last years race and Atzeni [ king of Doncaster ] booked. Only b365 25's so thought I'd move now.
  See Dolphin Vista has a decent 7lb claimer aboard.
Waiting to see who rides Gabrial.
Report ReaseHeath March 20, 2018 6:53 PM GMT
The fact that Atzeni’s name appears against Donncha in the Lincoln and Zabeel Prince in the Listed race is a pretty strong hint Zabeel Prince ain’t running in the Lincoln
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2018 9:38 PM GMT
The market on on here has been telling you for ages that  Zabeel Price isn’t running.

Having tipped Doncha in my OP last yearCry I will have to do a saver for old times sake.
Report nocturnal March 20, 2018 10:14 PM GMT
7/8     9-00  9-04lb
17/17   Age 4-6
6/8     win/placed course form

Just the 22 when final decs arrive,easy ground forecast,virtually impossible without final field,there will be a few lower down hoping to get in on the bubble.

Both of Martyn Meades horses jocked up,not that difficult to make a case for either.

Dolphin Vista 102 .....Cambridgeshire hero,5th here last year,the claimer aboard arguably gets him in 4lb lower than last year when with Fahey,debateable you want an inexperienced jockey in this line up.

Chelsea Lad 101 .....Another with decent course form,fine effort back end,but that was over 1m 4f.Get the impression ground is the key,everytime any soft appears he tends to run well,they now have plenty of options distance wise,this mark looks well within his compass, given his head.Murphy is 5/14 for the yard.

Looking through the trainers 5 yr record,he has two very rewarding distances re  profit/loss.

7F    +£51.84

1m - 1m 1f   +£36.71

Further down a horse mentioned already would be a danger to all if he gets in.

Leader Writer 97 ......French import,just the one season with current yard,dotted up at ascot on the straight course on soft ground,looks to have high knee action,deeper the better for him I reckon.Strangled on comeback at lingfield,noted he ran without previous cheekpieces,will be watching what headgear he may get.He looks quirky in his run-style,but talented,could just be very ground dependant to produce his best.

Just like early season jumps handicaps,plenty guesswork trying to suss which stables are having a go,always think this is one where the layers have that early season upper hand.
No bet yet,need those final decs and jockeys/headgear/draw.
Report gpz6316 March 20, 2018 11:46 PM GMT
well ryans got of addeyyb in favour of fb , fb,s value has gone now though and ive missed the boat . afaaks form from last season looks good though . hes very well bred and handled conditions over c,d last season without being hit albeit in a lowly race , when clearly not expected to , he went off 12-1 after being odds on in his previous race . hes all about the straight mile at royal ascot which will be his target , this is just a prep , but , hes very lightly raced , has a top class pedigree , the forecast is for drying ground and hes to start somewhere . dont expect him to be given a hard race , but , with only 7 career runs and shown he can handle this he may just have a lot in hand @ 19.5 . hes my pick as things stand
Report ReaseHeath March 20, 2018 11:57 PM GMT

Mar 20, 2018 -- 4:38PM, unclepuncle wrote:

The market on on here has been telling you for ages that  Zabeel Price isn’t running.Having tipped Doncha in my OP last year I will have to do a saver for old times sake.

the volumes traded are so pitiful that they don't tell me anything to be honest - if you extend that theory the market's telling me there's only going to be 18 runners...

Report gpz6316 March 21, 2018 12:36 AM GMT
lol rease your a bit pseed and you posted on the wrong thread .
Report gpz6316 March 21, 2018 12:38 AM GMT
lol no you didnt . im a bit pseed . time to go bed
Report Facts March 21, 2018 2:47 AM GMT
Added Fire Brigade. Has all the required KPI's going, for it to be a bet. ( 6/1 lad)
Report unclepuncle March 21, 2018 7:32 AM GMT
While I hear you about the liquidity the market on Zabeel Prince surely says he ain't running. Might not be a lot to back but layers are risking a heck of a lot by offering 25-33/1 on a horse who would surely by close to favourite if he were to run.
There has also only been just over £70 bet on him since the market opened?

Trainer David O'Meara said: "I don't think running Lord Glitters on bottomless ground carrying joint top weight holds much appeal and it could be he runs in the Listed race, although we'll make a decision later in the week. He has form on soft ground but I don't think he wants it too testing."

Maybe Lord Glitters defection (if that is what happens!!) may change a few connections minds about running?
Report unclepuncle March 21, 2018 7:38 AM GMT
Being in a strong position with my main Fire Brigade bet, rather than just lay off my stake, I've added a reasonable bet on Adyyebb @ 8/1 and thrown a few quid on Donncha and Lahore.
Report johnnyrant March 21, 2018 1:01 PM GMT
Market suggesting Lord Glitters won't be running. Disappointing as an AP backer. I'm joining the Fire Brigade train Happy
Report unclepuncle March 21, 2018 1:31 PM GMT
Glad the weather forecast looks really good so no last minute deluges to scupper my best laid plans.Wink
Report Deptford March 21, 2018 1:47 PM GMT
Had a saver on Adyyebb as well at 8/1
Report SOULDANCER March 21, 2018 2:43 PM GMT
Glanced at Weekender in Asda's this morning, didn't buy it, too tight.

Donncha tipped so was glad I bet when I did but see his price hasn't moved.

Interesting points Donncha was gelded in Nov. at the age of 6, bit late in the day.

It's been 7 years since a horse won this from a mark it hasn't won before.
Report SOULDANCER March 21, 2018 2:45 PM GMT
from before.
Report liberator of the oppressed March 21, 2018 5:07 PM GMT
+ developed a hoofie problem probably wasn't quite right last year all is good now go on Donncha.
Report SOULDANCER March 21, 2018 10:03 PM GMT
GABRIAL, Jamie Spencer rides, oh my, I'm sure to bet that on the day, at least I'll have an excuse.
Report Deptford March 22, 2018 10:39 AM GMT
Looks like Glitter runs
Report Deptford March 22, 2018 10:39 AM GMT
Slybet have it at 8/1
Report unclepuncle March 22, 2018 11:56 AM GMT
Thought LG would run, hence my 'if that is what happnes!!' comment above.
He's much better suited to a big field cavalry charge than a small field conditions race.
Saver on him for sure.

Low draw was favoured last year so not great for Fire Brigade in 19.Cry
Report howarth31 March 22, 2018 12:19 PM GMT
10 of the last 20 horses to have placed in the Lincoln have been drawn between 18-22 so I wouldn't worry about stall 19
Report roadrunner46 March 22, 2018 12:52 PM GMT
lot of good horses in this years race and few potential improvers, lord glitters the one to beat, ballard down
has an interesting profile and last years winner bravery 5lb lower this time around.

goodluck all
Report Facts March 22, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
Aren't you concerned with lack of recent wins from LG's trainer ?
Report roadrunner46 March 22, 2018 2:48 PM GMT
that lord glitters is an exceptional horse, more than likely group class, not in this instance. findout
on saturday if that has a bearing on the result.
Report gpz6316 March 22, 2018 7:39 PM GMT
stats wise a lot will ko anything that isnt a 4yo . i think repercussion whos defo aimed at this race and as roadrunner said ballard down will be overpriced
Report smithyads1 March 22, 2018 8:03 PM GMT
How can I find out which horses were balloted out?
Report roadrunner46 March 22, 2018 8:40 PM GMT

Mar 22, 2018 -- 2:39PM, gpz6316 wrote:

stats wise a lot will ko anything that isnt a 4yo . i think repercussion whos defo aimed at this race and as roadrunner said ballard down will be overpriced

(24) 4 year olds have won the race since 1965 (53 races) only two horses have managed to win carrying 9.10
so lord glitters will have to show its group class to win this off top weight of 9.11

Report IrisDeBalme March 23, 2018 8:36 AM GMT
I think its a hard race ... but cant understand the price of Dolphin Vista... 33/1... he won the Cambridgeshire - will love the conditions.

I also followed his stablemate Chelsea Lad 16/1... he was 4th in the cambs... and think he deserves a big race win.
Report unclepuncle March 23, 2018 10:57 AM GMT
DV is a big price but not sure how soft it will be - it's been really dry for a week and over a mile he might just find it too sharp (bit like last year).

CL is a hard one - he seems to be a horse without a trip and has run well in several big handicaps from a mile to 1m4f but despite often going off as one of the favourites he has never actually looked like winning one.
Report howarth31 March 23, 2018 11:10 AM GMT
This is only Dolphin Vista's third try in a big field handicap (14 or more runners) having finished 5th in this last year and 1st in the Cambrigeshire. He gets his ground and actually has a decent record over a mile (3 wins, 3 places and a 5th in the Lincoln from 9 runs) considering he does get outpaced
Report SOULDANCER March 23, 2018 3:48 PM GMT
GABRIAL e.w.33-1.

Bit of a heart job for me. I was surprised how well he ran over 10 furlongs, too far, on the all-weather last time. We know he likes the course but DONNCHA is my strongest fancy.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 23, 2018 5:12 PM GMT
Have backed Via Via each way and will continue tipping away at the big prices, on the Newmarket run last season it is a massive price, only 1.75L behind Lord Glitters and now 6lbs better off, after the race Smullen got off and said it wants soft ground so it's got that here.

Have also backed Addeybb at 7s, don't really know why Fire Brigade was all the rage and expected to reverse form on worse terms here.
Report gpz6316 March 23, 2018 7:36 PM GMT
watching the vt of recent Lincolns the draw seems very important to me as both outside edges condense those in the middle leaving them short of racing room . so i,m ruling out anything without a draw 1-5 or 17-22  .  knock out whos outclassed , then i found only one horse left drawn low , but , 3 drawn high suggesting the strongest pelaton comes from high . i,ve ruled out big country as i dont feel he will handle the ground  , leader writer  leads on the wrong foreleg and will run towards the rail . i want one that can really open up running across the track  and so i,m left with ballard down whom fits what i wanna see in terms of profile . i,d have liked a prep , but , heyho this is my selection process for this race . best of luck
Report Facts March 23, 2018 8:20 PM GMT
I thought you'd be hard pressed to see anything beyond Fire Brigade Shocked
Report morpteh mackem March 24, 2018 10:51 AM GMT
fb lost a leg or everyone laying off ?
Report ReaseHeath March 24, 2018 1:11 PM GMT
good thread, reflects the competitive nature of the race.

Waiting for 48 hour decs may not have been the best policy here in hindsight, anyway backed Leader Writer at 12/1 each way this morning.

I rate Lord Glitters but the stable form is disturbing.

Read some interesting stats from Simon Rowlands with his Timeform hat on which suggest a high draw is preferable on Donny straight mile with 16+ runners when ground is worse than good.

Finally, it's a really competitive card - instinctively prefer the jumps but some of the big Saturday cards this season have been really disappointing

Good luck,all
Report unclepuncle March 24, 2018 1:54 PM GMT
After watching the first race it looks very hard to make ground up - front / prominent runners may have a big edge.
Report unclepuncle March 24, 2018 1:58 PM GMT
Have added a small bet on Repurcussion @ 50
Report GoldCupWinner March 24, 2018 3:20 PM GMT
Dolphin vista and dark red for me.
Report Andrew in Sweden March 24, 2018 3:34 PM GMT
Dark Red EW, ran a good race in the Balmoral
Report Deptford March 24, 2018 3:42 PM GMT
That will do
Report unclepuncle March 24, 2018 3:46 PM GMT
Well done winners (even meLaugh).

The ability to race handily was key - Lord Glitters ran very well in the circumstances and Ryan was very easy on Fire Brigafe once he couldn’t get there.
Report ReaseHeath March 24, 2018 3:48 PM GMT
well done winners - Addeybb going to Sandown mile all being well,maybe Lord Glitters and Zabeel Prince will join him...
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