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woodmanchester
10 Jan 18 11:13
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
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What are the chances he'll have a tilt at the Gold Cup before Aintree, please?

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Replies: 54
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jan 18 11:43
Fair I would say, he is in the 38 entries today.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 10 Jan 18 16:22
defintley the lively outsider of the race
By:
woodmanchester
When: 11 Jan 18 11:59
Seems had the right idea at 44.0 exch at time of posting. You'll struggle to get 33/1 with popular layers now. Hills went 40/1 and thought about each-way but they only go 25/1 now. Saw Blaklion win at Aintree recently. Looked as good as all except perhaps Might Bite. Trip no fears anyway
By:
Middle_Of_March
When: 12 Jan 18 06:13
I took some of that 40/1 last week each way


I make him the each way bet angle of the race as things stand.
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Jan 18 12:10
His main target is the Grand National - hope weight (yet to be announced) not too burdensome. On RSA form a stone or more to find though nevertheless, a better prospect than Coney Island (unlikely stayer), I believe.
By:
the bloob
When: 14 Jan 18 11:33
I've also backed Blaklion antepost at 40/1, but I fear he won't run in the Gold Cup, they are hell-bent on the Grand National. I think the GN would be a mistake, the handicapper is going to take no prisoners given the 4th place last year and Becher romp. I expect he will get his official weight plus another couple of pounds, so plenty more weight than last year. Although he has improved and a more patient ride will help I just think the weight will be too much
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 14 Jan 18 22:01
I've backed him at 40/1 as well. Think it's probably only 50/50 they run as it would be hard to see him winning a GN after a gruelling race in the GC a few weeks before. But fingers crossed. He's a 16/1 poke if he runs imo.
By:
asparagus
When: 15 Jan 18 13:43
A month between the Gold Cup and Grand National this year so i would think strong odds on to run in both from what the stable have said. Couldn't fancy him for the gold cup myself but i guess worse 33/1 shots.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Jan 18 15:06
Sounds like the GC is being used purely as a prep for the GN which isnt great news, but value still at 40's I think.
By:
jrw
When: 19 Jan 18 08:42
Trainer wants to run him in Gold cup first one of the owners, not so keen thinks he to hard  to run in both
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Jan 18 11:01
I think Blaklion would be a worthy runner in the Gold Cup (GC), and have a decent chance for a place if either Sizing John and/or Our Duke underperform. He seems to have improved and apart from Might Bite the likes of Native River (well-being only on trust) and Coney Island (stamina a question to me) he could easily run into a place. However, I do agree though to run in the GC and then the Grand National could be a race too soon and too many. But the money on offer is humongous.
By:
dunlaying
When: 19 Jan 18 11:38
I think he has more chance of winning the Gold Cup .
By:
The Dragon
When: 19 Jan 18 14:59
terrible price for the national ante post
By:
dunlaying
When: 19 Jan 18 17:16
Yes I agree.
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Jan 18 20:46
Terrible price indeed, and before the weight has been announced too. Bet you he'll be lumbered with a hefty rise post his credible performances this season.
By:
sageform
When: 28 Jan 18 13:16
Interesting to look back to his Boxing Day 2016 run behind Wakanda and Definitely Red after yesterday. Three very good horses.
By:
the bloob
When: 28 Jan 18 14:06
given Bristol de Mai's love of flat, left-handed courses on soft/heavy and in the early part of the season, plus Definitely Red's form since the Charlie Hall, the Blaklion run at Wetherby is looking very solid form now. I hope connections realise what a great chance this horse would have in the Gold Cup, and no reason why they can't go for both GC and GN
By:
woodmanchester
When: 01 Feb 18 08:11
Blaklion, down to run in the National trial Feb 17th, seen 7/2. Is that too close to have a tilt at the Gold Cup, with the National itself on the agenda too?
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Feb 18 10:13
I think connections have had a rethink and the gold Cup is not on the agenda, according to a report today.
By:
the bloob
When: 01 Feb 18 18:18
it does look that way, I'm hoping they will change their minds when the weights are announced, handicapper is going to slaughter him, top weight guaranteed
By:
irishone
When: 01 Feb 18 22:46
blaklion wasnt fancied when he won the rsa in a weak year , the only win on allegedly good ground , i feel he needs the soft or heavy and is likely to be weighted out of the grand national this year, he had his chance last year with 11-1 , looked a genuine stayer in his point to point and that rsa , but he outplodded shaneshill up the hill in that rsa and hasnt turned cartwheels for me since.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Feb 18 06:51
Very genuine horse,who falls below top class,thats how I would describe him.
The RSA fell into his lap, and they know hes not up to winning a Gold Cup.

Would agree last year was his big chance for the National,he will surely have more weight this year.
By:
the bloob
When: 02 Feb 18 20:55
it's a bit presumptive to think that the going will be G/S or better at Cheltenham, if it came up soft then Blaklion would be a player
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Feb 18 05:59
Fair point,soft ground would help him,
People just presume it will be good/soft or better, but you are right of course....soft ground is a possibility.
By:
irishone
When: 04 Feb 18 08:48
cheltenham soft is good over here
its not often the word GOOD is missing
even when there is standing water on the X country
By:
casemoney
When: 11 Feb 18 18:03
Not a Classic Gold cup by any means  Lion would be a Big runner in my Opinion ... With the Month gap surprised they are not going for the GC ..
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Feb 18 19:30
If he's allocated a racing weight for the Grand National maybe skip the Gold Cup otherwise yes.
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 22:33
i thought he maybe a new seemorebusiness but i think he just a few pounds below that . i think he plateaued defo red is on the up though my advise would be to look at him for the gold cup
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 22:44
defo red beat blacklion 10.5 ls native river only 7.5ls then blacklion won nto so that was his form , defo red is in the form of his life and is being nurtured for the gold cup @20-1 native river imo is a race or two behind in terms of sharpness and is 6-7 -1 .
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 22:45
come friday the ground will be opened up also , crazy defo isnt single figures imo
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Feb 18 19:56
The Grand National weights are out and he's got 11st 6lbs with Definitely Red (DR) shouldering top weight of 11st 10lbs; in between are BDM, Edwulf, Outlander and Minella Rocco (MR) all but one are unlikely runners. So, he could be shouldering top weight eventually if DR and MR take up their position in the Gold Cup.
By:
casemoney
When: 14 Feb 18 00:11
DR 11.10 Nearly a stone more than Last year Very Harsh
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 14 Feb 18 05:13
Yes Blaklion probably top weight.
By:
the bloob
When: 14 Feb 18 20:18
Blaklion given his official weight in the National, they have got to count their lucky stars on that one, I would have Blaklion over DR in the GN getting 4lbs. Blaklion got a decent hike for the Becher win but how he got away with the run in the Charlie Hall is a mystery, I seem to remember he got dropped 2lbs or something really daft!
By:
woodmanchester
When: 15 Feb 18 07:05
Very happy with Blaklion's weight allocation. 25/1 tickets looking good. Played him max bet at 9/2 for Haydock Saturday, also
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Feb 18 15:37
I think backers of Blaklion (B) would be hoping DR does not run well in the Gold Cup, if so, a likely runner in the Grand National (GN). Otherwise, B could be lumbered with top weight which is a burden, to say the least.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 16 Feb 18 06:45
Impossible, I'm no expert but don't weights going up only benefit those out of the handicap?

Don't see how a bad run by Deffo Red in the Gold Cup, results in more chance of a National bid. Sure will give a good account in the Gold Cup, then they will decide on the National?
By:
woodmanchester
When: 16 Feb 18 06:47
Think it's more a case if he has a hard race in the Gold Cup
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Feb 18 11:44
If DR lost all chance oP winning the Gold Cup or be placed he'll be allowed to come home in his own time and not subject to a hard race thus increasing the chance of his participation in the Grand National (GN). However, if the opposite was to happen eg triumphant or be placed it'd be less likely he'd taking in the GN but could run in the Aintree Bowl or wait for the punchestown Festival instead. And, next season the GC would be most likely his target again.

I'm no expert either. However, you are correct to infer a weight rise does benefit horses that are out of the handicap, but it also means a bigger burden for any horse already shouldering a hefty weight prior eg Blaklion, especially if the horse concerned is a midget. Also, any serious participant at the bottom of the weights will tend to benefit the most from a weight rise should the top weight decamp.

This is just my understanding.
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