Best race of the Christmas period for me, always has been. King George the what chase?
Anyway, had a quick shufty through the entries and thought a couple were worth flagging up.
Firstly last seasons Eider winner Mysteree, whose trainer Michael Scudamore (trained previous winner Monbeg Dude) said after he had just been nailed close home in the Midlands national that they had him "dreaming of the Welsh national next season" and you can see why after also winning a slog at haydock over 3/12 miles with his only blemish coming at Plumpton which wouldnt be every horses cup of tea. He clearly needs a big galloping track and having been eliminated form last seasons race will have no problems on that score this time.
Chase The Spud did the Midlands national form no damage when winning first time up last week and i reckon for a horse pretty much guaranteed to line up - possibly even first time up - I think 25-1 generally is a pretty decent e/w poke.
The other one I like is last seasons 4th Houblon Des Obeaux. Even after his recent veterans win he is well handicapped off 143, 10lb lower than last seasons effort and looks another one for e/w backers given his 4th in the classic chase, Midlands national and wasnt disgraced in the national. At 10 he is hardly going to improve and I was hoping for a shade higher than 20-1 but its difficult not to envisage this dour stayer not being on the premises and is probably one to back nearer the time.
Another Mysteree backer here. Took the 20/1 before his withdrawal from Cheltenham's race( ground not soft enough ) Has won first time out the last three seasons. So Welsh National it is
Another Mysteree backer here. Took the 20/1 before his withdrawal from Cheltenham's race( ground not soft enough )Has won first time out the last three seasons. So Welsh National it is
To the strength of a steeplechaser, 5lb will make no difference. Slight mistake by him or others and weights go out the window. Will win or wont whatever
To the strength of a steeplechaser, 5lb will make no difference. Slight mistake by him or others and weights go out the window. Will win or wont whatever
Decided to go in on Wild West Wind at 16-1. Sounds like he is going for the race and although its only a little over 2 weeks since he ran I think its worth taking a chance.
Decided to go in on Wild West Wind at 16-1. Sounds like he is going for the race and although its only a little over 2 weeks since he ran I think its worth taking a chance.
If it made no difference why have handicaps at all? It does make a difference but so do many other factors especially in a long distance chase. Going 3 wide for a circuit would cost the equivalent of 7lb, a serious mistake could cost about the same. I am still with Wild West Wind although Tom George's form is still a cause for concern. Too many jump the second last looking likely to win but fade out of the frame.
If it made no difference why have handicaps at all? It does make a difference but so do many other factors especially in a long distance chase. Going 3 wide for a circuit would cost the equivalent of 7lb, a serious mistake could cost about the same.
I thought (hoped!) he would go to Ascot but Henderson has three entered and he has been eased by a couple of books to suggest he isnt going to go there.
Ironically, since the race called the Rehearsal Chase was moved from Chepstow to Newcastle, the winner of the Welsh National - for which it was meant to be a "Rehearsal" for - has never come from the race. Prior to that it was the primary source of finding the winner.
I thought (hoped!) he would go to Ascot but Henderson has three entered and he has been eased by a couple of books to suggest he isnt going to go there.Ironically, since the race called the Rehearsal Chase was moved from Chepstow to Newcastle, the wi
No major omissions at the 5 day stage. Was hoping Beware The Bear might be scratched but this appears to be the plan.
Morpeth - think Chase The Spud does hold a chance but is much worse off with Mysteree on their run in the Midlands National. That said its because he has won its last race and has at least had a run, which is my only concern regarding Mysteree, despite his record when fresh. Would also like to have seen Scudamore have a winner recently.
No major omissions at the 5 day stage. Was hoping Beware The Bear might be scratched but this appears to be the plan.Morpeth - think Chase The Spud does hold a chance but is much worse off with Mysteree on their run in the Midlands National. That sai
aye prefer cts to mysteree ( due to ack of run for latter ) , really need a horse likes soft/heavy, has flippers for feet and 5 pairs of lungs. ask the weatherman is another possibiity.
aye prefer cts to mysteree ( due to ack of run for latter ) , really need a horse likes soft/heavy, has flippers for feet and 5 pairs of lungs. ask the weatherman is another possibiity.
Milansbar very nicely treated on some of his old form. Staying on all up the straight against the George horse last time and off 10.3lbs carries a very nice weight and will have come on for the run. Have taken some 20s. Think he will run a big race
Milansbar very nicely treated on some of his old form. Staying on all up the straight against the George horse last time and off 10.3lbs carries a very nice weight and will have come on for the run. Have taken some 20s. Think he will run a big race
Made a shuddering mistake at the second last year and was on the back foot from then on. This years race is pretty average compared to last year. See the weights have gone up 6lbs. Perched on 10-9 now. I'm happy with that.
Made a shuddering mistake at the second last year and was on the back foot from then on. This years race is pretty average compared to last year. See the weights have gone up 6lbs. Perched on 10-9 now. I'm happy with that.
A good prep run over too short making up about 10/12 lengths over last 3 fences, side stepping the fallen Bob Ford may have stopped him winning
Back down to 134 after struggling in the mid 140s
imo should have already have won the Midlands National (off 145) jockey chased suicidal pace and still only got beat 2 lengths
I do like the 'Milans' over extreme distances
I like Milansbar as well.A good prep run over too short making up about 10/12 lengths over last 3 fences, side stepping the fallen Bob Ford may have stopped him winningBack down to 134 after struggling in the mid 140simo should have already have won
I have backed Silsol and Ofaolains Boy. Silsol stays , has form on the ground , has a touch of class and might have been kept for this. Not too badly weighted either. Ofaolains Boy I have backed just in case he comes back to form.
I have backed Silsol and Ofaolains Boy.Silsol stays , has form on the ground , has a touch of class and might have been kept for this. Not too badly weighted either.Ofaolains Boy I have backed just in case he comes back to form.
10/1 the field,in a 20 runner handicap, open race would be accurate.
Folsom Blue.....The pin has landed on this elliot inmate,plenty of big field experience in some of the top Irish staying handicaps.Not been hammered,137 seems reasonable,gets the combo of tongue tie/pieces for only second time.Showed his well being with a never nearer 4th in latest hurdle race,not getting any younger,will need clean round of jumping,like to see him not too far off the pace early,slight concern re jockey not having ridden him before,hopefully will have schooled him at home.
Raz De Maree.......In the veteran stage,ran an absolute cracker behind the well in NR In last years renewal. Gets the claim from the excellent Bowen junior,not the biggest surprise were he to run well again.
Purely on handicapping.......Silsol is an intriguing entry. Just shy of top class over hurdles,rated 158 at his peak,the claim allows this fella to run off 142 tomorrow.PFN also runs the top weight,is he there to keep the weights down?Just the 4 chase starts,looks a big ask for effectively a novice,but he should be ok on the ground/distance,a clear round would definately give him a sqeak.
Only backed FB so far,like to see the ground tomorrow under race conditions,before adding anything.
GL to those playing
10/1 the field,in a 20 runner handicap, open race would be accurate.Folsom Blue.....The pin has landed on this elliot inmate,plenty of big field experience in some of the top Irish staying handicaps.Not been hammered,137 seems reasonable,gets the com
Shame, though I was concerned about the form of Scudamores horses going in to today.
As regards antepost bets, I should know the rules given how many times this race has been abandoned in the past few years but i actually can't remember. Think it actually depends on who you have placed your bets with. My concern is that it now falls quite close to the Warwick Classic which may have been plan B for some of these.
Dont know what im going to do with myself today now!!
Shame, though I was concerned about the form of Scudamores horses going in to today.As regards antepost bets, I should know the rules given how many times this race has been abandoned in the past few years but i actually can't remember. Think it actu
If race is rescheduled then if I remember from previous years the choice is with the punter re ante post bets, either leave the bet for new race date or ask for bet to be cancelled, I have 25/1 Chase the Spud so may as well take my chance if race is run on the 6th January, could be less runners than would have been today.
If race is rescheduled then if I remember from previous years the choice is with the punter re ante post bets, either leave the bet for new race date or ask for bet to be cancelled, I have 25/1 Chase the Spud so may as well take my chance if race is
add V C to that list, I've got Bishops Road at 25/1 and Vintage Clouds at 22/1, I'm tempted to let them stand. It'll be worth checking again later as it may just be they have not got round to cancelling them
does the entry now get re-opened?
add V C to that list, I've got Bishops Road at 25/1 and Vintage Clouds at 22/1, I'm tempted to let them stand. It'll be worth checking again later as it may just be they have not got round to cancelling themdoes the entry now get re-opened?
Still no refund from wh or BF. Why does one have to wait until what was the time of the race ( ie 2.50) before AP bets are refunded? The meeting was abandoned 7.30 am!
Still no refund from wh or BF. Why does one have to wait until what was the time of the race ( ie 2.50) before AP bets are refunded? The meeting was abandoned 7.30 am!
Wh have refunded. BFred are not going to. Bet stands for rescheduled race ! Apparently, this is their policy. Any ante post bets, where original race is void due to meeting abandonment, the bet is held ' open' and applied to the rescheduled race. Not sure what the ruling is, if trainer decides not to run it in the rescheduled race though !?
Wh have refunded. BFred are not going to. Bet stands for rescheduled race ! Apparently, this is their policy. Any ante post bets, where original race is void due to meeting abandonment, the bet is held ' open' and applied to the rescheduled race.Not
This is taken from an email received from Wh today......
' The bets placed on ante post markets are void as it has been abandoned. Please see the rules below:
In line with principals laid down by Tattersalls Rules of Racing, ante-post bets will be void under the following circumstances, otherwise bets stand: a. If the race is abandoned or declared void.'
This is taken from an email received from Wh today......' The bets placed on ante post markets are void as it has been abandoned. Please see the rules below:In line with principals laid down by Tattersalls Rules of Racing, ante-post bets will be void
This is a mess. My Mysteree bet with Bet365 stands but is available as a cashout too, so basically I have the choice.
My bet on Wild West Wind with VC also stands but I have no choice about it. Problem is the horse is now entered in two chases this weekend at Haydock on saturday and Cheltenham on Monday so may not actually run at Chepstow if connections decide not to wait. Then where do you stand, as the horse was originally declared to run but now may end up a non runner...
This is a mess. My Mysteree bet with Bet365 stands but is available as a cashout too, so basically I have the choice.My bet on Wild West Wind with VC also stands but I have no choice about it. Problem is the horse is now entered in two chases this we
You're right - it is a mess. It would appear some bookmakers have allowed the bets to stand for the re-run, whilst others have refunded. Is it an interpretation of the rules , where they're applying it as a void, ignoring the fact it's being re- run ? I'm confused as to why the bloob has his bet left Open with WH ,whilst mine has been refunded ? I've emailed them for clarification.
You're right - it is a mess. It would appear some bookmakers have allowed the bets to stand for the re-run, whilst others have refunded. Is it an interpretation of the rules , where they're applying it as a void, ignoring the fact it's being re- run
5 day decs out tomorrow and no doubt quite a few of these will be taken out.
Thankfully my Mysteree bet at 25-1 and 16-1 on Wild West Wind still stands (good to see he didnt take up his entries over the weekend).
Still think Houblon Des Obeaux can play a part given he hit the frame off a 10lb higher mark on his first run of the season last year and ran better than it looks at Sandown last time. The extra week will be in his favour. Will wait until tomorrow but feel that 25-1 is a fair price to hit the frame again at least.
Quite a few put up Milansbar and his odds did noticeably contract overnight before the original race. I get it to a degree but cant help noticing how he easily drops out if he clouts one, which you really cant do in this race. He is well handicapped though and did I imagine it or were first time cheekpeices set to be deployed, which he looked like he needed after his last run.
Lets just hope the race is on this time!
So. Here we go again, take two and all that..5 day decs out tomorrow and no doubt quite a few of these will be taken out.Thankfully my Mysteree bet at 25-1 and 16-1 on Wild West Wind still stands (good to see he didnt take up his entries over the wee
Cloudy on Friday with showers, perhaps turning wintry over hills. Feeling very cold on Saturday in brisk winds, a chance of rain in the south. Dry, bright and cold Sunday.
Outlook for Friday to Sunday Cloudy on Friday with showers, perhaps turning wintry over hills. Feeling very cold on Saturday in brisk winds, a chance of rain in the south. Dry, bright and cold Sunday.
I would still put the chance of racing at less than 50%. I live 50 miles south of there and every field for miles around is under water. Wincanton could also be in doubt.
I would still put the chance of racing at less than 50%. I live 50 miles south of there and every field for miles around is under water. Wincanton could also be in doubt.
HDO looking likely to go to Sandown for the veterans race rather than Chepstow so can forget him.
Folsom Blue looks a likely NR and Hobss is warning Rock The Kasbah may not run, so given the confidence Neil King is showing behind Milansbar and confirming he wears cheekpieces i think I'll fire my 3rd and last arrow at him at 16-1.
Fingers crossed its on!!
HDO looking likely to go to Sandown for the veterans race rather than Chepstow so can forget him.Folsom Blue looks a likely NR and Hobss is warning Rock The Kasbah may not run, so given the confidence Neil King is showing behind Milansbar and confirm
Folsom Blue was announced non runner yesterday on ATR,info given via Gary Obrien who is part owner,yet last night he was still in 11 of the 23 books quoted on oddschecker? He was also matched on here at 60 and upwards.
Now we have Rock The Kasbah,on the same ground as indicated in original race,heavy,possibly not taking up his entry,yet right now he is still available to back in most books?
Two different scenarios,in the case of Folsom Blue this news has come from a respected owner/reporter,and that transparency has to be applauded,bad luck for all concerned it happens so close to the race.
As for RTK,well something does not seem right here,this horse has been vying for favouritism since the A/Post market was formed,yet only now, they feel he might not like the ground ?
Some layers removed FB yesterday,others have not,questions need answering here.
There has to be some common ground here,who is at fault is open to question,should the trainer be scratching the horse,probably in an Ideal world.
The bottom line is some people may have backed FB yesterday,yet he had already been announced as a nonner, this surely cannot be right?
Add in the Samcro case,these scenarios are happening way too often,taking a stance pre race is one thing,having no chance whatsoever of getting a run,thats completely different.
Integrity is banded around daily,with good reason.
Thoughts Anyone ?
Well.....what do we have here?Folsom Blue was announced non runner yesterday on ATR,info given via Gary Obrien who is part owner,yet last night he was still in 11 of the 23 books quoted on oddschecker?He was also matched on here at 60 and upwards.Now
I expect the RTK decison is really about the stable form which is horrendous - as is Jessica Harrington and look how well Sizing Johns ran at Chirstmas.
If I was the owner I would definitely rule RTK out and save him until the signs were better as a oor run over 3m5f on bottomless ground could end his season.
I expect the RTK decison is really about the stable form which is horrendous - as is Jessica Harrington and look how well Sizing Johns ran at Chirstmas.If I was the owner I would definitely rule RTK out and save him until the signs were better as a o
20 decs and no RTK. Uncle hit the nail on the head regarding stable form. Could really harm a young chaser if its under a cloud in this ground.
See Emperors Choice has snuck in at the bottom. Surely not....
20 decs and no RTK. Uncle hit the nail on the head regarding stable form. Could really harm a young chaser if its under a cloud in this ground.See Emperors Choice has snuck in at the bottom. Surely not....
Also interesting that Tom George has put Adrian Heskin up on Wild West Wind. Gethings rode him to victory last time and was due to ride him again in the original race as Heskin was riding at Kempton but now has to make way for the stable jockey.
The upshot being the horse effectively has a 7lb penalty taking into consideration Gethings claim. Confidence or stupidity...
Also interesting that Tom George has put Adrian Heskin up on Wild West Wind. Gethings rode him to victory last time and was due to ride him again in the original race as Heskin was riding at Kempton but now has to make way for the stable jockey.The u
I put up Alfie Spinner on this thread before the welsh national trail. He was a good second to Wild West Wind in that and has a massive 12lb pull on WWW for just a length and a half. You could argue Alfie Spinner was the stronger at the finish and this is over an extra 3/4 of a mile !!
The extreme ground and trip can only be in its favour in race the trainer excels. Obviously hard work for a 13yo, but not many miles on the clock and I am happy with the 50/1 e/w.
I put up Alfie Spinner on this thread before the welsh national trail. He was a good second to Wild West Wind in that and has a massive 12lb pull on WWW for just a length and a half. You could argue Alfie Spinner was the stronger at the finish and
I've previously been on Bishops Road and Vicente, but I have now also backed Silsol and On the Road
Silsol has some very good form before injury and goes on soft, to be thrown in to a race like this must be a positive sign, decent 5lb claimer on board too
On The Road looks like a potential plot, goes on soft too, been ran over hurdles to protect handicap mark, top class claimer on board. I had my eye on this before the original race but he didn't get in, now that he's got in I've got to have a bet. Also there is a good trend in this race for 7 and 8 year olds carrying under 11 stone, the only doubt is the trip but they clearly think he will stay as plenty of alternative races over shorter
I've previously been on Bishops Road and Vicente, but I have now also backed Silsol and On the RoadSilsol has some very good form before injury and goes on soft, to be thrown in to a race like this must be a positive sign, decent 5lb claimer on board
Stick with Silsol,if there is one with a stack in hand,its potentially him. Same claimer booked,this could be a race where jockeys will have to really be mindful of pace,will be interesting to see what sort of gallop they go first circuit.
Also like On The Road for reasons above,right age and weight,stamina yet to be proven.
R D Maree....take out NR last year and he romped it,saver material only,again if he jumps well enough,he should be ok on deep ground.
Always an intriguing race,with that seemingly endless home straight.
Good points The BloobStick with Silsol,if there is one with a stack in hand,its potentially him.Same claimer booked,this could be a race where jockeys will have to really be mindful of pace,will be interesting to see what sort of gallop they go first
can't believe I said Vicente, meant to write Vintage Clouds, must have been pi ssed! just to clarify the 4 I've backed are:
Bishops Road Vintage Clouds Silsol On the Road
can't believe I said Vicente, meant to write Vintage Clouds, must have been pi ssed! just to clarify the 4 I've backed are:Bishops RoadVintage CloudsSilsolOn the Road
I had an AP on Final Nudge which was returned. After going through the declared field I have landed on Emperors Choice ew at 20s with Patrick. Won the race in 2014 off 131. In today off 128 less 3lb claim. Trip/ground will be fine and bottom weight which will help. GL
I had an AP on Final Nudge which was returned. After going through the declared field I have landed on Emperors Choice ew at 20s with Patrick. Won the race in 2014 off 131. In today off 128 less 3lb claim. Trip/ground will be fine and bottom weight w
As a layer the two with the least chance in this have both been mentioned. Emperors choice,tough race in december bound to of taken plenty out of his legs. Silsol, how can people back this? chase form? jockey is good but still learning the game so bound to feel pressure and that is acceptable at her stage of career, the more expirienced jockies have a huge edge.
Good luck everyone.
As a layer the two with the least chance in this have both been mentioned. Emperors choice,tough race in december bound to of taken plenty out of his legs. Silsol, how can people back this? chase form? jockey is good but still learning the game so bo
In the end I've had a small win only bet on Raz De Maree and backed Bishops Road and Final Nudge each way.
I think Vintage Clouds still has untapped potential and it would n't be the biggest surprise to see Firebird Flyer return to form in these conditions but I've resisted the temptation to back either of them.
Good luck!
Fancy about 8 of them!In the end I've had a small win only bet on Raz De Maree and backed Bishops Road and Final Nudge each way.I think Vintage Clouds still has untapped potential and it would n't be the biggest surprise to see Firebird Flyer return
Mysteree never went a yard (still feel the stable is under a cloud - one winner since early december and that was in a 7 runner race where he ran 3!)
Thought Wild West Wind was jumping and traveling like the winner when he fell - bringing down Milansbar in the process...
Well done anyone who had the nerve to back two 13 year olds - in particular Equine Flew who flagged up Alfie Spinner at 50-1 early doors, very unlucky not to collect on the win.
Back to the drawing board for me....
Absolute whitewash.Mysteree never went a yard (still feel the stable is under a cloud - one winner since early december and that was in a 7 runner race where he ran 3!)Thought Wild West Wind was jumping and traveling like the winner when he fell - br
Final Nudge jumped and travelled really well but looking at final field and 11st 5lb it was always gonna be a tough ask. Beaten by horses ridden by top 5lb claiming jocks, ante-post doesn't get any easier for me. Well done all who won on race.
Final Nudge jumped and travelled really well but looking at final field and 11st 5lb it was always gonna be a tough ask. Beaten by horses ridden by top 5lb claiming jocks, ante-post doesn't get any easier for me.Well done all who won on race.
trainer reported 'chase the spud' was examined by vet and shown to have ataxia . not sure what this is, googled and looks like balance ,co-ordination problem.
trainer reported 'chase the spud' was examined by vet and shown to have ataxia . not sure what this is, googled and looks like balance ,co-ordination problem.
RDM...Outstayed them,very similar run to 2016,not sure what penalty he will get,5-7lb would probably get him in April,if they go that route.If it were to come up soft at Aintree, in this sort of form,he would go to post with a live chance,couple of other races being considered according to stable.
Silsol......Ran his race,not good enough at the weights,lost some ground at that ridiculous starting point on the bend,jumped really well out of that ground. Very few miles on the clock,big step in the right direction,something like the scottish version possibly,although Vicente looks nailed on to go there for the stable,interesting to see where he goes from here.
Three claimers in the top five,encyclopedias written on horses staying,nothing on jockey stamina?
Just over 8 minutes racing,does age come into it more over the longer distances,add the claim into the argument,hard work for both jockey/horse,something to ponder going forward.
Thanks Facts.....Well played RH/FELT and EFRDM...Outstayed them,very similar run to 2016,not sure what penalty he will get,5-7lb would probably get him in April,if they go that route.If it were to come up soft at Aintree, in this sort of form,he wou
Vintage Clouds would be the one I'd take out the race with Aintree in mind (he's only 8yo so potentially a few shots at it!)Was surprised he got back up for 4th after seeming to be on the retreat (albeit only 7 finished). Both his trainer and his sire have already won a Grand National but, more pertinently, I think he'd appreciate better ground.
Of the also-rans Milansbar, Mysteree, Emperors Choice and On The Road are all entered in the Classic Choice at Warwick (latter two did n't get very far at Chepstow).
Thanks, Facts and noc - well done all winners...Vintage Clouds would be the one I'd take out the race with Aintree in mind (he's only 8yo so potentially a few shots at it!)Was surprised he got back up for 4th after seeming to be on the retreat (albei
I think you maybe onto something there Noc. They interviewed Aspel after he had managed to coax a tune out that rogue Buywise in the Veterans Chase, it was about three minutes after they had finished and he was still blowing out of his ar5e! Perhaps these marathon events do suit the fitter lads?
I think you maybe onto something there Noc. They interviewed Aspel after he had managed to coax a tune out that rogue Buywise in the Veterans Chase, it was about three minutes after they had finished and he was still blowing out of his ar5e! Perhaps
Most threads I have seen suggest 5%-20% races decided by jockeyship.In certain races,within both codes,my own view would be the complete opposite,nearer 80% are won/lost within the last few fences, or furlongs,whether that be jumps/flat.
Message sent.
Noc
Hi DesmondMost threads I have seen suggest 5%-20% races decided by jockeyship.In certain races,within both codes,my own view would be the complete opposite,nearer 80% are won/lost within the last few fences, or furlongs,whether that be jumps/flat.Mes