Horse Antepost
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Best race of the Christmas period for me, always has been. King George the what chase?
Anyway, had a quick shufty through the entries and thought a couple were worth flagging up.
Firstly last seasons Eider winner Mysteree, whose trainer Michael Scudamore (trained previous winner Monbeg Dude) said after he had just been nailed close home in the Midlands national that they had him "dreaming of the Welsh national next season" and you can see why after also winning a slog at haydock over 3/12 miles with his only blemish coming at Plumpton which wouldnt be every horses cup of tea. He clearly needs a big galloping track and having been eliminated form last seasons race will have no problems on that score this time.
Chase The Spud did the Midlands national form no damage when winning first time up last week and i reckon for a horse pretty much guaranteed to line up - possibly even first time up - I think 25-1 generally is a pretty decent e/w poke.
The other one I like is last seasons 4th Houblon Des Obeaux. Even after his recent veterans win he is well handicapped off 143, 10lb lower than last seasons effort and looks another one for e/w backers given his 4th in the classic chase, Midlands national and wasnt disgraced in the national.
At 10 he is hardly going to improve and I was hoping for a shade higher than 20-1 but its difficult not to envisage this dour stayer not being on the premises and is probably one to back nearer the time.
Thoughts anyone?
Anyway, had a quick shufty through the entries and thought a couple were worth flagging up.
Firstly last seasons Eider winner Mysteree, whose trainer Michael Scudamore (trained previous winner Monbeg Dude) said after he had just been nailed close home in the Midlands national that they had him "dreaming of the Welsh national next season" and you can see why after also winning a slog at haydock over 3/12 miles with his only blemish coming at Plumpton which wouldnt be every horses cup of tea. He clearly needs a big galloping track and having been eliminated form last seasons race will have no problems on that score this time.
Chase The Spud did the Midlands national form no damage when winning first time up last week and i reckon for a horse pretty much guaranteed to line up - possibly even first time up - I think 25-1 generally is a pretty decent e/w poke.
The other one I like is last seasons 4th Houblon Des Obeaux. Even after his recent veterans win he is well handicapped off 143, 10lb lower than last seasons effort and looks another one for e/w backers given his 4th in the classic chase, Midlands national and wasnt disgraced in the national.
At 10 he is hardly going to improve and I was hoping for a shade higher than 20-1 but its difficult not to envisage this dour stayer not being on the premises and is probably one to back nearer the time.
Thoughts anyone?
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FINAL NUDGE 14-1
Great first run of season when 2nd over 3m1f, will improve for the run, this longer trip, and cos he's improving. Travelling like the winner until falling in Midland National where Mysteree was 2nd, same terms here. Mysteree was late decision to go there cos runs better fresh, so maybe could improve on that and I'll have some of the 25-1, good shout bettilyerded. |
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thought BISHOPS ROAD ran a nice enough trial at newcastle yesterday.
back down to same mark he won the national trial at haydock in 2016 and the yard do like a tilt at this race, like to see them stick richard patrick on and take the 5 off. looks more like a old style welsh national this year cannot see any native river's in the race. |
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Three Faces West @ 25/1 appeals but no idea if this is the plan so will hold fire for a while.
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Another Final Nudge fan here. Can see him running a huge race at 14/1.
Good shout on Mysteree though... Like Soulsaver I've have added him as a saver as he does look quite well tied in with FN. |
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Beware The Bear jumped to the head of the market after his extraordinary win last weekend in the "Rehearsal" (much to my dismay as I had a decent bet on Bishops Road at 12's!!). I can see why but will Henderson run him?
Its never been at the top of his list this race and Im not sure he will risk a good up and coming horse in such an attritional event. He also picks up a 4lb penalty taking him to 149. What do we think of Flintham? Part of me thinks he could be just the type but Im not fully convinced. He took 12 runs over hurdles to reach a career high win off 138 (also his current chase rating) under top weight in heavy ground over 31/4 miles at warwick and has shown promise in his short chase career so far, particularly in a substandard renewal of last seasons Reynoldstown. He clearly isnt going to be as good as siblings Carruthers or Coneygree but Ive an inkling we havent seen the best of him yet and will certainly have needed his first run of the season. be interesting where he goes as the Warwick Classic Chase could also be on his agenda. |
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Entered at Chepstow on Saturday, suggesting this is the target. Very interesting candidate at the prices.
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Wouldn't fancy Flintham for this, not enough experience over fences and front runs, would be asking a lot. 25-1 looks short enough and probably get that on the day.
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Hmmm. Jury's out just now.
What about Robinsfirth then? Would have gone close over 3 miles in soft ground at Chepstow before tipping up. Has shaped well in two races this year and was mentioned as a possible Hennessy horse at start of season. Ran without the usual noseband as well last time - a ploy used by Tizzard in the past with his chasers. 20-1 not massive value though. |
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Robinsfirth NR
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Yeah, noticed that Soul. Be interesting to see where they go next with him.
Beware the Bear also entered in at Ascot on 23rd so may attempt the double done by Wakanda in 2015. Ascot before christmas is probably more Hendersons scene, even if it is worth 30k less to the winner. |
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Alfie Spinner 50/1 (generally).
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Fancied a few in my time, but don't recall ever backing the winner of this race. Loads of National winners, a couple in the Lincoln and Cesarewitch but this race always eludes me
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An aftertime of subtlety and grace there Woody, masterful.
I'd really like Beware the Bear for this, he looks like marathon trips on bottomless ground will see him to best effect, but the entry for the 23rd is a worry. The performance up at Newcastle last week was remarkable for it's tenacity, I thought Bowen was going to pull it up at one stage. I'll get involved if he doesn't take up that engagement. |
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Flintham holds engagements this weekend so would be surprised if he went to Chepstow if he runs in one of them.
Worryingly Mysteree is entered up at Cheltenham on Friday. I say that as Scudamore only said last week the intention was to go to Chepstow first time up as he is best fresh. Bit close to the race for my liking though i do recall Synchronised running over hurdles at the meeting before going to Chepstow the year he won. Houblon Des Obeaux didnt really advertise his claims in the London national and may well miss the race. Luckily I havent yet got involved. As an aside I was quite impressed by Wild West Wind in last weekends trial. he was the one horse in the race beforehand who looks like he could improve into a candidate for honors. Not sure whether the intention is to run or not. |
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Wild West Wind ran a super trial over the course last Saturday.
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Mysteree runs tomorrow.
Do I not like that. |
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Bit of a mystery that. Trainers never fail to astound me. You think some journo would would ring up and get the reason behind the decision, lazy gits.
Perhaps they've been held up by weather and feel he needs the run. Can't be after a penalty to be sure of making cut, can they? |
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Sporting Life, December 6th.
Michael Scudamore feels Mysteree can make his presence felt should he get into the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. The nine-year-old is being lined up to make his first start of the season in the Grade Three contest on December 27, which Scudamore won back in 2012 with Monbeg Dude. Having claimed the Eider Chase at Newcastle on his penultimate outing, the former Lucinda Russell-trained gelding was last sighted finishing second in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in March. Scudamore said: "He needs to get into the Welsh National and that is our only concern at the moment. But it is very much 'Plan A'. Todays Racing Post. Michael Scudamore has thrown caution and a long term plan to run in the Coral Welsh Grand National to the wind as stable star Mysteree instead makes his reappearance in this £45,000 Grade 3 handicap. Scudamore had been working towards the Chepstow marathon on December 27 for last season’s Eider winner and Midlands Grand National runner-up but the shot at a big pot against just five rivals proved too good to resist. “The Welsh National had been the plan but when you see only five have been declared in a race like this, we couldn’t be sat at home watching,” said the trainer. So to answer your question Souldancer, I havent a clue. 138 would have got you in the race every year so I cant think its that, just taking a pop at a lesser, but more easily winnable, pot. I guess win lose or draw it doesnt preclude him running at Chepstow but unlikely and it would have been nice if he had made the caveat when making the statement earlier in the month that they were considering Cheltenham. Think Ive done my dough. |
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Maybe done your dough, but there's no catering for that. You did everything right Welsh Nat was the long term plan, shame if you don't get a run.... same for me too.
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Always a shame to lose an ante post bet but connections would be like UDS, lets take the easiest money and worry about the bigger prizes later. Chepstow might not even be on.
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you've been rescued, gents - non runner today due to the ground (not sure how it is much different than they thought it would be...)
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Mysteree non runner today? Betting has been suspended. Have we been thrown a lifeline?
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Oh yes indeed.
Back on track for the Welsh National!! |
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Oh yes indeed.
Back on track for the Welsh National!! |
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98% chance to be softer at Chepstow.
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^ which is what the horse wants...
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Taken some 20/1 on Mysteree.
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Another Mysteree backer here. Took the 20/1 before his withdrawal from Cheltenham's race( ground not soft enough )
Has won first time out the last three seasons. So Welsh National it is  |
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I might as well admit to backing the horse at 25/1 and chasing the spud at 16/1 so they are well and truly hexed going by my antepost record this year
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I'm considering Mysteree but I'm concerned about the additional 5lbs to carry this time
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To the strength of a steeplechaser, 5lb will make no difference. Slight mistake by him or others and weights go out the window. Will win or wont whatever
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1 pound per length is a fair approximation, and a bit more than a length over longer trips
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Decided to go in on Wild West Wind at 16-1. Sounds like he is going for the race and although its only a little over 2 weeks since he ran I think its worth taking a chance.
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If it made no difference why have handicaps at all? It does make a difference but so do many other factors especially in a long distance chase. Going 3 wide for a circuit would cost the equivalent of 7lb, a serious mistake could cost about the same. I am still with Wild West Wind although Tom George's form is still a cause for concern. Too many jump the second last looking likely to win but fade out of the frame.
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You hit the nail on the head with 'many other factors,' Sage
Nit picking over 1lb here and there hardly worth it |
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Beware The Bear. Miracle he won last time but also entered for the Lavazza Silver Cup this Saturday, 23rd. Anyone know most likely route?
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I thought (hoped!) he would go to Ascot but Henderson has three entered and he has been eased by a couple of books to suggest he isnt going to go there.
Ironically, since the race called the Rehearsal Chase was moved from Chepstow to Newcastle, the winner of the Welsh National - for which it was meant to be a "Rehearsal" for - has never come from the race. Prior to that it was the primary source of finding the winner. |
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Anticipated money now coming for Mysteree
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Been tipped somewhere maybe?!
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