Betfair Chase (25th Nov)

from memory i dont think bdm has a good record at haydock

BDM is two from two over fences at Haydock with an aggregate winning margin of 54 lengths - not too bad!!

memory mus be fading!!!! lol

Think Sizing John looks decent at 7/4

Think I might chance Outlander at a double figure price if he comes over.  He's race fit and has never lost a chase between November and February when the going is soft or heavier. He looks over priced to me for a 3 time G1 chase winner.

BDM loves Haydock but at less than 2/1 and having not won a G1 chase over 3m there is little in his price. Sizing John is a worthy champ but first run of the season on heavy has to be a risk even though he has won races on heavy and Cue Card has question marks over him rising 12 as well as his jumping under pressure. 

Really can't see the others winning.

Given the forecast I'll be pleasantly surprised if the meeting is on, and for all that a £1m bonus is tempting I'd be amazed if they run Sizing John on horrendous ground.

Cue Card at 4/1 for a last hurrah similar to Kauto Star a few years ago.

Elliott's comments after overturning his non-trier fine suggest Outlander is going to run here.

Bristol De Mai looks very short now - and I'm a fan of his.

T42 has a squeak I think now he's has put the LH theory to bed (his jockey was right about that, have to admit that I was sceptical) - I had a concern about the ground for him given that his best win in the Melling Chase was on good ground - but his overall form suggest he is pretty versatile in terms of the going (I think Kayf Tara progeny generally cope with most variations in ground). I'm not concerned with his Old Roan chase run as I reckon that was just a pipe opener with this race in mind.

So BDM too short, trainer quotes don't give me much confidence that Sizing John will bring his A game and we don't know how much of his ability Cue Card retains rising 12 (plus I never mind doing my money when he wins ).

I'll wait until the w/e just to get a better idea of the ground but I'll end up backing either one or both of Outlander and T42.

I cannot have BDM (too exposed and beating Blaklion?). If the probable soft to heavy going (20mm precipitation expected) materialises and 1st run for SJ prove too insurmountable for SJ then my heart (probably head too) say Cue Card.

Cue Card was still going well when he tipped over in the Charlie Hall, and he also won it last year.

only sending SJ over for the million pound bonus ,so why wouldn't they have him primed to go,might as well stay at home otherwise

BDM will go off 8/13, race fitness and ground , flat track everything in his favour, and still could be improving

disagree with only beating blaklion comment, I think he's a very good horse was the best horse in the national by miles

can't have SJ or cue card at any price

Now that Our Duke has been diagnosed with back issue, and more crucially the ground will probably be close to heavy which is not conducive for SJ the KG on 26th Dec will be off his agenda if he does not win the Betfair Chase - the present market drift does not instil confidence for supporters.

I was on Blaklion in the National, and he was going very well until a few fences out; to me he clearly did not stay the National trip as well as some of the others who finished infront of him.

Final chance for Cue Card, and hoping he stays up this time. Apart from SJ this field is not realy Gp 1 material despite the win of BDM.

The field definitely is Grade 1 material - Bristol De Mai has won 2 Grade 1 Chases (albeit both novices), T42 has won 2 Grade 1 Chases and Outlander has won 3 Grade 1 Chases (including the prestigious Lexus).I'll give you Traffic Fluide and Shantou Flyer

Bristol De Mai gave Blaklion 6lbs at Wetherby and given that he is only 6yo - I don't agree that he is exposed.

BDM negatives are nothing to do with him imo - it's just his price and the strength of the opposition.

Sizing John's overall form suggests he'll be fine on the ground and he has a decent record fto - it's just a case of whether he'll be disadvantaged by the fact that his key opponents have all had at least one run already (although Cue Card did n't complete obviously).

If he runs, I will only be backing Cue Card.

Sizing John 3/1 now!

I'm less concerned about this race being Sizing John's (SJ) 1st outing of the season but the soft/heavy ground is more of a negative for me - this is reflected in his price of 3/1. I cannot back BDM no matter what, but definitely a toss of coin between Cue Card (CC) and SJ, at the moment favouring CC.

Oh dear, the ground has changed to soft, heavy in places, from soft, on the chase course. And more rain is forecast tonight, if so, will SJ turn up at all?

Told Ya.

SJ is a confirmed absentee thus CC for me. But will SJ come for the King George on Boxing Day? Maybe not, I'd think, given the predicament concerning Our Duke.

Monday|:

Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power insist Sizing John is in great shape for Saturday's Betfair Chase despite a significant market drift and concerns over the fact the jump racing heavyweight had three hard races last season.

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Sizing John began the day as the 6-4 favourite with the sponsors but he was on Monday out to as big as 3-1 with Sky Bet for the Haydock showdown, with course specialist Bristol De Mai taking over favouritism. Bristol De Mai is generally available at 6-4, while Cue Card is 3-1 third favourite.


Despite the market screaming otherwise

sorry I didn't back Cue Card ante post now but with so much rain forecast it may still be off.

I think Mrs Harrington was correct to withdraw SJ given prevailing bottomless ground. SJ is the reigning Gold Cup champion, and his main target is retaining his crown again at Cheltenham. I do not think this race was on his agenda but solely £1m bonus induced. Nevertheless, a disappointment all round as racegoers might not see him here until March now given the proximity of the John Durkan (10th) and King George Chase (26th).

This is not a great renewal, and unless Outlander springs a surprise I'm hoping Cue Card can atone as he's been very unlucky and deserves to win another Group 1 in this company, I believe.

Cant be having Cue Card whatsoever. Bristol De Mai looks a "good thing" to me!

dear me i looked at the race thinking it a competitive  affair from a betting perspective . move on this is a non race from a punter perspective

Tea For Two beat both Bristol and Cue Card @ aintree  Bristol 2.5 Cue Card 3.1  T42  12.0   seems way to big

gpz6316, given known forms of the principal runners eg BDM, Cue Card (CC), Outlander and Tea For Two and with none being odds-on this is an ideal betting opportunity if one nails one's mast to any of these. I think, but for falling last time, CC would be the clear fav for this one.

anyone local, has the rain stopped and will this meeting go ahead in your view.

cue card was hanging like a gate. and niggled a few times and didn't look like a winner before falling last time, imo

Tizzard horses didn't look quite ready back then but they ran well at Cheltenham.

Backing Cue Card but with reservations as I think Bungle fancies it.

Woodmanchester:

"Cant be having Cue Card whatsoever. Bristol De Mai look a 'good thing' to me!"