Betfair Chase (25th Nov)

from memory i dont think bdm has a good record at haydock

memory mus be fading!!!! lol

Think I might chance Outlander at a double figure price if he comes over.  He's race fit and has never lost a chase between November and February when the going is soft or heavier. He looks over priced to me for a 3 time G1 chase winner.

BDM loves Haydock but at less than 2/1 and having not won a G1 chase over 3m there is little in his price. Sizing John is a worthy champ but first run of the season on heavy has to be a risk even though he has won races on heavy and Cue Card has question marks over him rising 12 as well as his jumping under pressure. 

Really can't see the others winning.

Elliott's comments after overturning his non-trier fine suggest Outlander is going to run here.

Bristol De Mai looks very short now - and I'm a fan of his.

T42 has a squeak I think now he's has put the LH theory to bed (his jockey was right about that, have to admit that I was sceptical) - I had a concern about the ground for him given that his best win in the Melling Chase was on good ground - but his overall form suggest he is pretty versatile in terms of the going (I think Kayf Tara progeny generally cope with most variations in ground). I'm not concerned with his Old Roan chase run as I reckon that was just a pipe opener with this race in mind.

So BDM too short, trainer quotes don't give me much confidence that Sizing John will bring his A game and we don't know how much of his ability Cue Card retains rising 12 (plus I never mind doing my money when he wins ).

I'll wait until the w/e just to get a better idea of the ground but I'll end up backing either one or both of Outlander and T42.

only sending SJ over for the million pound bonus ,so why wouldn't they have him primed to go,might as well stay at home otherwise

Now that Our Duke has been diagnosed with back issue, and more crucially the ground will probably be close to heavy which is not conducive for SJ the KG on 26th Dec will be off his agenda if he does not win the Betfair Chase - the present market drift does not instil confidence for supporters.

I was on Blaklion in the National, and he was going very well until a few fences out; to me he clearly did not stay the National trip as well as some of the others who finished infront of him.

Final chance for Cue Card, and hoping he stays up this time. Apart from SJ this field is not realy Gp 1 material despite the win of BDM.

If he runs, I will only be backing Cue Card.

I'm less concerned about this race being Sizing John's (SJ) 1st outing of the season but the soft/heavy ground is more of a negative for me - this is reflected in his price of 3/1. I cannot back BDM no matter what, but definitely a toss of coin between Cue Card (CC) and SJ, at the moment favouring CC.

Told Ya.

Monday|:

Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power insist Sizing John is in great shape for Saturday's Betfair Chase despite a significant market drift and concerns over the fact the jump racing heavyweight had three hard races last season.

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Sizing John began the day as the 6-4 favourite with the sponsors but he was on Monday out to as big as 3-1 with Sky Bet for the Haydock showdown, with course specialist Bristol De Mai taking over favouritism. Bristol De Mai is generally available at 6-4, while Cue Card is 3-1 third favourite.


Despite the market screaming otherwise

I think Mrs Harrington was correct to withdraw SJ given prevailing bottomless ground. SJ is the reigning Gold Cup champion, and his main target is retaining his crown again at Cheltenham. I do not think this race was on his agenda but solely £1m bonus induced. Nevertheless, a disappointment all round as racegoers might not see him here until March now given the proximity of the John Durkan (10th) and King George Chase (26th).

This is not a great renewal, and unless Outlander springs a surprise I'm hoping Cue Card can atone as he's been very unlucky and deserves to win another Group 1 in this company, I believe.

dear me i looked at the race thinking it a competitive  affair from a betting perspective . move on this is a non race from a punter perspective

gpz6316, given known forms of the principal runners eg BDM, Cue Card (CC), Outlander and Tea For Two and with none being odds-on this is an ideal betting opportunity if one nails one's mast to any of these. I think, but for falling last time, CC would be the clear fav for this one.

cue card was hanging like a gate. and niggled a few times and didn't look like a winner before falling last time, imo

Backing Cue Card but with reservations as I think Bungle fancies it.