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Anyone know when the entries are out ?
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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2017-12-02/686445
Maybe completely wide of the mark, but Im starting to like CHILDRENS LIST from the Willie Mullians-Rich Ricci stable for this at 33/1. Not stables main pick, bit lightly raced, beat Edwulf last year (leading and hunting round like prior Hennessy winners /placed horses have done). Jumps really well for one without much experience.
It looks like CONEYGREE will run in this race a week on Saturday according to Sara Bradstock. Having said that, I'll believe it when I see it, but it would be great to see him if he could put in a top performance. It also means that the weights are set.
7 runners pulled out today,leaving field 38 just prior to 5 day decs.
Shout out to IBRAHIMA.....are you still in the Newbury area ? Weatherwise ?
Been looking through last years thread,there was standing water on the track on the sunday before.
The problem being,on ground described as gd/sft,last years renewal was 6 secs faster than standard.
Looking back at fridays chase results last year,the clues were there re ground.
The chase course does appear quicker than hurdles,any reason for this?
From an ante-post point of view,just another factor that adds to the puzzle.
The two at the head of the market both appear to prefer cut.
This is one of my favourite tracks,hoping last year was a one off,nothing wrong with the ground visually,
looked perfectly decent and produced great finnish,but not on gd/sft.
Final rant......crying shame the Hennessy name gone,as UNCLE put it....end of an era.
There were some great shouts 2016,expecting no different this year.
Shout out to IBRAHIMA.....are you still in the Newbury area ? Weatherwise ?
Been looking through last years thread,there was standing water on the track on the sunday before.
The problem being,on ground described as gd/sft,last years renewal was 6 secs faster than standard.
Looking back at fridays chase results last year,the clues were there re ground.
The chase course does appear quicker than hurdles,any reason for this?
From an ante-post point of view,just another factor that adds to the puzzle.
The two at the head of the market both appear to prefer cut.
This is one of my favourite tracks,hoping last year was a one off,nothing wrong with the ground visually,
looked perfectly decent and produced great finnish,but not on gd/sft.
Final rant......crying shame the Hennessy name gone,as UNCLE put it....end of an era.
There were some great shouts 2016,expecting no different this year.
You've got me worried about American now, noc...
Cold, dry snap coming nationwide by the looks of things with no rain forecast prior to race day.
Fry on the record as stating American wants good to soft or slower conditions because he has fragile knees - I'm now concerned the ground might be deemed to quick for him to participate - it'll be tempting for them because he's clearly been laid out for this but he was pulled out of festival and rerouted to Uttoxeter in March due to the ground.
So would n't want to be backing him prior to final decs now - only 22 left at 5 day decs stage.
Cold, dry snap coming nationwide by the looks of things with no rain forecast prior to race day.
Fry on the record as stating American wants good to soft or slower conditions because he has fragile knees - I'm now concerned the ground might be deemed to quick for him to participate - it'll be tempting for them because he's clearly been laid out for this but he was pulled out of festival and rerouted to Uttoxeter in March due to the ground.
So would n't want to be backing him prior to final decs now - only 22 left at 5 day decs stage.
One I have bet on is Pleasant Company at 250's on here. Good form in big handicaps and goes well fresh. Whether its an intended runner I've no idea with Mullins presumably having the favourite.
22 declared at the 5 day stage and the going currently good-to-soft with a dry, windy and cold week ahead. Certainly a worry for American - definitely wait until final decs with him.
I have it between Whisper and Singlefarmpayment but at 3/1 combined odds I'm not that bothered about having a bet.
Have tried to find one at a price but struggling to see any of them winning.
I have it between Whisper and Singlefarmpayment but at 3/1 combined odds I'm not that bothered about having a bet.
Have tried to find one at a price but struggling to see any of them winning.
Mullins very bullish about Total Recall according to a source who has good contacts with the yard. Said he'd win this comfortably if the handicapper didn't hammer him and he's apparently very happy with the weight. Don't shoot the messenger but I've backed it and hoping it brings home the bacon
Singlefarmpayment 7/1 - if he comes on just a bit from first run should win this comfortably.
At better prices
Missed Approach 33/1 - had a warm up over hurdles , 2nd in National Hunt chase , 8th in Scottish National.
Vyta Du Roc 14/1 - Also warmed up over hurdles , 5th in Whitbread , 5th in 2016 Scottish National.
A Genie In A Bottle 14/1 - 3rd to Disk at Punchestown, fav for National Hunt chase but only 5th.
At better prices
Missed Approach 33/1 - had a warm up over hurdles , 2nd in National Hunt chase , 8th in Scottish National.
Vyta Du Roc 14/1 - Also warmed up over hurdles , 5th in Whitbread , 5th in 2016 Scottish National.
A Genie In A Bottle 14/1 - 3rd to Disk at Punchestown, fav for National Hunt chase but only 5th.
Evening Rease.......
He seems to have been the talking horse for this,not without good reason.
Put up on the ante-post thread,by a couple people at around 16/1,I could see the attraction.
I would like to see him run,think all of us like to see the best horses compete in the top races.
I like to use as much info as possible,thought they had made mistake when I saw the winning time from 2016,I,m sure if people knew that information pre race,not just punters,the complexion of the race may have been different.
Trainers,as you say,will have horses they do not want to risk on faster ground than Ideal,as stated I hope the track can give a proper going update daily,I,m hoping they just got it wrong on that day.
If you substitute American for Southfield Royale,I,m in the same position,backed him ante-post expecting proper winter ground,at least he is still there,but I,m not sure they will risk him if its too quick.
No surprise if a few more pulled before saturday,good luck with him,potentially top class.
Lady M......They are a law unto themselves,no surprise were he well in,gl
He seems to have been the talking horse for this,not without good reason.
Put up on the ante-post thread,by a couple people at around 16/1,I could see the attraction.
I would like to see him run,think all of us like to see the best horses compete in the top races.
I like to use as much info as possible,thought they had made mistake when I saw the winning time from 2016,I,m sure if people knew that information pre race,not just punters,the complexion of the race may have been different.
Trainers,as you say,will have horses they do not want to risk on faster ground than Ideal,as stated I hope the track can give a proper going update daily,I,m hoping they just got it wrong on that day.
If you substitute American for Southfield Royale,I,m in the same position,backed him ante-post expecting proper winter ground,at least he is still there,but I,m not sure they will risk him if its too quick.
No surprise if a few more pulled before saturday,good luck with him,potentially top class.
Lady M......They are a law unto themselves,no surprise were he well in,gl
No sign of any rain, not yet a frost so far this week. The forecasts dont predict any rain this week.
I wanted monsoon conditions for Coneygree & Colin's Sister this week.
I wanted monsoon conditions for Coneygree & Colin's Sister this week.
Good man Ibrahima.....monsoon unlikely,but you never know.
Both days look competitive....thanks and best of luck if your playing.
Both days look competitive....thanks and best of luck if your playing.
Royal Vacation for me. I know he was a long way behind when Might Bite fell at Kempton but he beat the rest and what weight would Might Bite have in this? RV beat Present Man 44 lengths! He now has to give just 3lb and although PM has improved, I doubt if it is by 40lb.
cold rest of the week and warming slightly on saturday so im predicting good / good to soft so no excuses
presentman was layed out for the badger , owners sponsored etc. didnt want the ground by the vibe but won in a race with little enthusiasm for any runner. is defo gonna be a spring horse aintree most likely . with 140k at large and in fine form would you let the horse down ? hmm ill wait to saturday gl
Going over the final decs and trying to find the winner, normally i have a selection on the first decs.
Usually i go a up and coming 2nd season novice. This year we have;
Whisper 157
American 157
A Genie In Abottle 152
Royal Vacation 149
Singlefarmpayment 147
Present Man 142
Missed Approach 141
& others.
Whisper a grade 1 hurdler and ran in 2 novice group 1's deserves his rating but American ran at exeter, warwick & uttoxeter but is rated 157 ! That makes American better than Diamond Harry, Burton Point & Native River, who all ran in higher, more competitive races.
A Genie In Abottle is hard to work out, beaten in the 4miler because of stamina but has run some very good races over 3m+ but rated 1lb lower than Diamond Harry & Burton Point.
Royal Vacation is a horse i like but his form since Kempton is nil. Backed Singlefarmpayment at last years festival who is a good horse but he lacks the improvement unless the race turns out to be a true handicap. Cant have any WG horse at this level.
I have had a saver on Coneygree because i have too. Tilting towards Total Recall & Whisper but still trying to find the form on TR after his very impressive win lto, the change of stable may mean they can get more out of TR but the form doesnt shout out he had some really good form in the past.
Usually i go a up and coming 2nd season novice. This year we have;
Whisper 157
American 157
A Genie In Abottle 152
Royal Vacation 149
Singlefarmpayment 147
Present Man 142
Missed Approach 141
& others.
Whisper a grade 1 hurdler and ran in 2 novice group 1's deserves his rating but American ran at exeter, warwick & uttoxeter but is rated 157 ! That makes American better than Diamond Harry, Burton Point & Native River, who all ran in higher, more competitive races.
A Genie In Abottle is hard to work out, beaten in the 4miler because of stamina but has run some very good races over 3m+ but rated 1lb lower than Diamond Harry & Burton Point.
Royal Vacation is a horse i like but his form since Kempton is nil. Backed Singlefarmpayment at last years festival who is a good horse but he lacks the improvement unless the race turns out to be a true handicap. Cant have any WG horse at this level.
I have had a saver on Coneygree because i have too. Tilting towards Total Recall & Whisper but still trying to find the form on TR after his very impressive win lto, the change of stable may mean they can get more out of TR but the form doesnt shout out he had some really good form in the past.
I will give Southfield Royale one more chance. He badly needed the run behind Present Man so we can forget that.
Total Recall has a lot on his plate for a short priced runner.
Total Recall has a lot on his plate for a short priced runner.
Still Royal Vacation for me. Theatre Guide has run well several times in the race and was entered for this after finishing third to Present Man at Wincanton but they have gone with the younger version.
Theatre Guide was on my shortlist, RV debut run looked average but then again Ginge was behind him so it maybe ok.
Ive backed Singlefarmpayment for the Gold Cup...don't laugh..I thinks its good
Times yesterday on the chase course suggest softer side of good,will be watching those earlier race times keenly,hurdles course again appears slower.
10/12 winners carried more than 11-00 st
1/16 winners aged over 8yr old.....only Denman as a 9 yr old broke the age stat.
Applying just these two stats,leaves AMERICAN alone,sounds easy!
Just the 2 backed here ew...
LABEL DES OBEAUX.....6 yr old closely matched with American on two pieces form,vibes do not sound great from yard,likeable sort,needs to brush up his jumping,cheek pieces added today.His run at Ayr back end last year suggested staying is his game,and decent ground could see him outrun his 33/1 quotes.
SOUTHFIELD ROYALE.....as suggested by Dunlaying,eyecatching run fto,again his future lies in staying chases,first time blinkers on today.Bits and bobs form give him a squeak,one of the more likelier ones to be putting his best work in at the finnish,dropped to a reasonable mark,trainer had the runner up last year,40/1.
Intriguing race,hard to rule out anything,kiss of death on the 2 above.....sorry!
GL ALL
10/12 winners carried more than 11-00 st
1/16 winners aged over 8yr old.....only Denman as a 9 yr old broke the age stat.
Applying just these two stats,leaves AMERICAN alone,sounds easy!
Just the 2 backed here ew...
LABEL DES OBEAUX.....6 yr old closely matched with American on two pieces form,vibes do not sound great from yard,likeable sort,needs to brush up his jumping,cheek pieces added today.His run at Ayr back end last year suggested staying is his game,and decent ground could see him outrun his 33/1 quotes.
SOUTHFIELD ROYALE.....as suggested by Dunlaying,eyecatching run fto,again his future lies in staying chases,first time blinkers on today.Bits and bobs form give him a squeak,one of the more likelier ones to be putting his best work in at the finnish,dropped to a reasonable mark,trainer had the runner up last year,40/1.
Intriguing race,hard to rule out anything,kiss of death on the 2 above.....sorry!
GL ALL
Backed Vyta Du Roc each way at a big price and traded which has allowed me each ways on Double Ross,Regal Encore and Pleasant Company.All six places.
I'm also on LDO, noc.
Not sure how negative the vibes are, I gather he is working well and this has always been the target - you'd expect the trainer to complain about the weight, in an effort to get dropped if it doesn't work out. A nice price.
Not sure how negative the vibes are, I gather he is working well and this has always been the target - you'd expect the trainer to complain about the weight, in an effort to get dropped if it doesn't work out. A nice price.
Pin landed on Royal Vacation ew and American win.
...and a small ew bet on Bigbadjohn whose course form and Reynoldstown win suggests he should not be a three figure price.
...and a small ew bet on Bigbadjohn whose course form and Reynoldstown win suggests he should not be a three figure price.
Good to hear Desmond.....looking at the betting,just the three of us 
Royal Vacation looked thoroughly out of sorts. Perhaps the Feltham run finished him. I thought Heskin was very poor again today on O Maonlai and Singlefarmpayment. Hope he makes amends on Baby King.
WP Lady M...all winners,great finnish,LDO first one beat 
Keep the faith with SFP. He will win a good Hcap this season.
sageform
02 Dec 17 15:20
Joined: 15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 9,962 | Blogger: sageform's blog
Royal Vacation looked thoroughly out of sorts. Perhaps the Feltham run finished him.
he won a handicap off 143 at cheltenham by 8 lengths after the feltham, interesting view point that
02 Dec 17 15:20
Joined: 15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 9,962 | Blogger: sageform's blog
Royal Vacation looked thoroughly out of sorts. Perhaps the Feltham run finished him.
he won a handicap off 143 at cheltenham by 8 lengths after the feltham, interesting view point that
Well done Total recall backers.
Was worried all the way that Whisper was too close to the pace - ended up in front three out and was there to be shot at, especially with the big weight on the long run in. He jumped impeccably though and given his love for Prestbury Park I took a bit of 28 for the Gold Cup post race.
I was happy with the ride Heskin was giving SFP - if he were going to win he needed to be hitting the front half way up the run in and no sooner. Have backed him for the Grand National @ 50/1 with Skybet.
Was worried all the way that Whisper was too close to the pace - ended up in front three out and was there to be shot at, especially with the big weight on the long run in. He jumped impeccably though and given his love for Prestbury Park I took a bit of 28 for the Gold Cup post race.
I was happy with the ride Heskin was giving SFP - if he were going to win he needed to be hitting the front half way up the run in and no sooner. Have backed him for the Grand National @ 50/1 with Skybet.
Uncle.....That might be a ticket to hang on to,tremendous run from Whisper,it does beg the question what was
Hendo doing winning a two runner race,giving him the 4lb rise.
Only his 7th start over fences,that must put him right in the picture for the blue riband.
Rarely do the beaten riders get credit,thought Russel gave him a peach,not much he could do as the horse took
him there,he ran all the way to the line.
Nothing else on the chase course came near standard,TR winning time 1.4 secs faster than standard.
There were a few in behind that caught the eye,a race to return to over the coming months.
Come racing they say,another 136% book,following the betvictor 132% book.
Somebody....somewhere......surely you are in danger of biting the hand that feeds you.
Hendo doing winning a two runner race,giving him the 4lb rise.
Only his 7th start over fences,that must put him right in the picture for the blue riband.
Rarely do the beaten riders get credit,thought Russel gave him a peach,not much he could do as the horse took
him there,he ran all the way to the line.
Nothing else on the chase course came near standard,TR winning time 1.4 secs faster than standard.
There were a few in behind that caught the eye,a race to return to over the coming months.
Come racing they say,another 136% book,following the betvictor 132% book.
Somebody....somewhere......surely you are in danger of biting the hand that feeds you.
had my biggest bet of the year on Whisper, comfortably beat everything else in the race, just found one too well handicapped
harry, maybe it was the Cheltenham win but what ever, RV is not the same horse this season. Blinkers on yesterday and almost pulled himself up at halfway.
Henderson made a big mistake, he didn't realise Whisper would get a 4lb penalty for Kempton nocturnal, cost him the race surely. One of the consequences I suppose of training so many horses, you would have thought someone would have put him right though.
I accept that the penalty cost him the race but he would have found it hard to finish behind Clans Des Obeaux in a 2 horse race which would have been the ideal outcome. Without the run he probably would not have lasted home at Newbury.
No trainer worth his salt sageform would pick up a penalty which would mean he was 4lbs wrong in a race like the Hennessy, he would either run prior to penalties kicking in or run without a prior run. Henderson made a mistake, he thought because Smad Place run in both races without a penalty when he did the double a couple of years ago the same would apply to Whisper.
Then again, If Whisper had won a half length, Mullins could have blamed himself for the 18 lbs he picked up for winning previously. The fact that they both pulled clear of the rest shows they were both well handicapped despite the penalties.
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