Horse Antepost
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Sponsors have priced it up and looking to try and pinch a bit of value.
Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor in particular, have done well in this listed event in recent years winning it 5 of the last 13 years, 6 if you count Sky Hunters subsequent disqualification.
No Bin Suroor runner this year with Best Of days potentially representing Godolphin and Hugo Palmer.
Been looking at the ratings of past winners, the lowest being 104 since 2000, with 14 of the 17 winners falling between the rating band of 108 - 114 and no winner older than 6, with a good spread between the ages 3-6.
No horse since dual winner island house back in 2002 (9-1)has won carrying the group/listed penalty of over 9-0 ( and only one other has done it back in 1993) though to be fair its 2008 since any horse tried, but still doesnt bode well for the top four who are set to carry 9-3, a weight never carried to victory in the history of the race.
So taking the above into consideration its likely the winner will come from Frankuus (10-1) Best of days (14-1), Chain Of Daisies (8-1) and Forest Ranger (4-1 fav).
Its no surprise that faheys horse is fav as its always been well regarded and took a big step towards regaining some form when a staying on 2nd in the Strensall Stakes at York, a route Vesuve took in 2010. However, looking at past winners they had all either placed or won at group level earlier in their careers AND almost all had won at listed level which he has yet to do and whilst Fahey has won the race back in 2007, he has had 9 other runners beaten including at 15-8 and 3-1 so it may be worth taking on, particularly as its price will be shorter on the day.
The other 3 met in the Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor last month - a route 3 former winners took - and for me the one to take out of the race is Best Of days, particularly at the prices.
A group 2 winner as a 2yo, he has clearly had issues as he was meant to run in a derby trial before the big race, didnt make one but was still left in at the 5 day stage before connections chose not to run him. Strangely, given Palmer had voiced concerns about him handling fast ground again (he gave most of the credit to his win in the Royal lodge on fast ground down to James Doyle) he reappeared in the Group 2 King Edward at Royal Ascot, finishing last. Hugo Palmer said later "He got a bit upset before the race, lashing out behind and rocking in the stalls, which caused him to miss the kick, whereupon he was caught too far back and forced to cover plenty of ground in a slowly run race".
Returning at Newbury, the ground had gone from one extreme to another. Again Palmer, prior to his next run at Windsor said "Best of Days has been slow to come to hand this year, but the signs were much more encouraging at Newbury last time despite the really soft ground not helping. Oisin Murphy rode him there and said it was only his guts and class which allowed him to go as close as he did.
The ground won't be anything like as bad at Windsor, and I expect him to put up an improved performance as a result. Before the race Palmer said "He's a horse who has given us cause to dream about the big days, and is working well again; it would be wonderful to get him back in the winners' enclosure, but this is a deep race and there will be no hiding place".
The Windsor race was a bit of a stop-start affair to my eyes and best Of days was blocked going for a run when the pace quickened, but still easily beat Frankuus and will be 2 pounds better off at Ayr to boot.
Chain Of Daisies is much more interesting given she beat Ullyses in a Group 3 last season and will be 4lb better off with BOD for a three length beating of him at Windsor. Indeed i would be interested at Betfairs 9-1 if she was going to run but I see she has an entry in a listed contest at Yarmouth on wednesday. Thats only a £22,000 contest compared to Thursdays £36 grand race at Ayr. The problem for her would be the ground as she missed the Middleton at York earlier this season on officially GS ground and both yarmouth & Ayr are currently Soft, though Ayr is due to dry out considerably over the next few days.
All in all, given that Best Of Days still holds Group 1 entries in the Champion Stakes and Arc i think the 14-1 is worth chancing and hope the ground dries out enough, given they missed a conditions event at Doncaster last week due to soft ground. The forecast is favourable and in the hope that he regains the faith that Palmer has always had in him I think its a risk worth taking, as I feel ground somewhere between the extremes that he has run on so far is what he needs.
Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor in particular, have done well in this listed event in recent years winning it 5 of the last 13 years, 6 if you count Sky Hunters subsequent disqualification.
No Bin Suroor runner this year with Best Of days potentially representing Godolphin and Hugo Palmer.
Been looking at the ratings of past winners, the lowest being 104 since 2000, with 14 of the 17 winners falling between the rating band of 108 - 114 and no winner older than 6, with a good spread between the ages 3-6.
No horse since dual winner island house back in 2002 (9-1)has won carrying the group/listed penalty of over 9-0 ( and only one other has done it back in 1993) though to be fair its 2008 since any horse tried, but still doesnt bode well for the top four who are set to carry 9-3, a weight never carried to victory in the history of the race.
So taking the above into consideration its likely the winner will come from Frankuus (10-1) Best of days (14-1), Chain Of Daisies (8-1) and Forest Ranger (4-1 fav).
Its no surprise that faheys horse is fav as its always been well regarded and took a big step towards regaining some form when a staying on 2nd in the Strensall Stakes at York, a route Vesuve took in 2010. However, looking at past winners they had all either placed or won at group level earlier in their careers AND almost all had won at listed level which he has yet to do and whilst Fahey has won the race back in 2007, he has had 9 other runners beaten including at 15-8 and 3-1 so it may be worth taking on, particularly as its price will be shorter on the day.
The other 3 met in the Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor last month - a route 3 former winners took - and for me the one to take out of the race is Best Of days, particularly at the prices.
A group 2 winner as a 2yo, he has clearly had issues as he was meant to run in a derby trial before the big race, didnt make one but was still left in at the 5 day stage before connections chose not to run him. Strangely, given Palmer had voiced concerns about him handling fast ground again (he gave most of the credit to his win in the Royal lodge on fast ground down to James Doyle) he reappeared in the Group 2 King Edward at Royal Ascot, finishing last. Hugo Palmer said later "He got a bit upset before the race, lashing out behind and rocking in the stalls, which caused him to miss the kick, whereupon he was caught too far back and forced to cover plenty of ground in a slowly run race".
Returning at Newbury, the ground had gone from one extreme to another. Again Palmer, prior to his next run at Windsor said "Best of Days has been slow to come to hand this year, but the signs were much more encouraging at Newbury last time despite the really soft ground not helping. Oisin Murphy rode him there and said it was only his guts and class which allowed him to go as close as he did.
The ground won't be anything like as bad at Windsor, and I expect him to put up an improved performance as a result. Before the race Palmer said "He's a horse who has given us cause to dream about the big days, and is working well again; it would be wonderful to get him back in the winners' enclosure, but this is a deep race and there will be no hiding place".
The Windsor race was a bit of a stop-start affair to my eyes and best Of days was blocked going for a run when the pace quickened, but still easily beat Frankuus and will be 2 pounds better off at Ayr to boot.
Chain Of Daisies is much more interesting given she beat Ullyses in a Group 3 last season and will be 4lb better off with BOD for a three length beating of him at Windsor. Indeed i would be interested at Betfairs 9-1 if she was going to run but I see she has an entry in a listed contest at Yarmouth on wednesday. Thats only a £22,000 contest compared to Thursdays £36 grand race at Ayr. The problem for her would be the ground as she missed the Middleton at York earlier this season on officially GS ground and both yarmouth & Ayr are currently Soft, though Ayr is due to dry out considerably over the next few days.
All in all, given that Best Of Days still holds Group 1 entries in the Champion Stakes and Arc i think the 14-1 is worth chancing and hope the ground dries out enough, given they missed a conditions event at Doncaster last week due to soft ground. The forecast is favourable and in the hope that he regains the faith that Palmer has always had in him I think its a risk worth taking, as I feel ground somewhere between the extremes that he has run on so far is what he needs.
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Thankfully noticed Best Of Days was entered up at Newbury before I bet him - just as well!. Decided it was a toss up between Frankuus and Forest Ranger so took the 10-1 last night. Hope Im right - gut feeling is Im wrong!!
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