Horse Antepost
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08 Aug 17
07:30
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Date Joined:
25 Aug 11
Aurelia out to 6/4 in the light of Battaash' recent victory. However, I found Aurelia much more eye-catching, wouldn't you say?
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A straight fight between Lady Aurelia (proven and impressive sprinter) and Battaash (new kid on the block since the op), and both odds against too at 6/4 and 2/1 respectively - what a race in prospect? Race of the meeting, I'd think, eclipsing Churchill vs Barney Roy and/or Highland Reel in the Juddmonte International.
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battaash official rating 125 RPR 122 OR
lady Aurelia 124 RPR 121 OR that's two group 1's for lady Aurelia and just the listed / group 3 and 2 for battaash lets hope theres no hard luck stories in the race. |
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The Aussie will rip it's guts out. Battash lay of the century.
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mission impossible having to give 3lbs to lady Aurelia in that race, never know miracles can happen
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Similar views about Battaash, and supporters of Lady Aurelia has been given an added bonus in her price (it seems) because of Battaash; Gp 1 form against Listed and Gp 2 and Gp 3, no brainer. But then I could barely pick a winner in a 2 runner race, lately.
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battaash has already run to a group 1 standard, you don't get a rating that high for being just below the group 1 level.
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be interesting to see which horse lines up as fav on the day
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With 2 comprehensive Royal Ascot wins and 3lbs sex allowance from Battaash I think Lady Aurelia will be the more likely fav of the two come next friday.
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Marsha e/w @ 10/1 for me.
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battaash for me in a multiple, too close a call for a single bet in the race, as a big fan of dark angel horses,
gotta go with this one over lady aurulia. gl all |
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With the ground drying out Cotai Glory is overpriced at 66/1 for small e/w money.
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I have Lady Aurelia's Ascot win and Battaash's Goodwood win on the exact same rating. Lady Aurelia receives 3lbs so in theory she should win. Horses can't be expected to run to the same mark every time but even if both of these do 3lbs is less than a length on my scale. That advantage could be overturned if Battaash receives a more favourable trip/ride than LA. A bit of an aftertime here but I did back Battaash last time on value grounds but only to small stakes. Looking back at his Sandown run though it was probably even better than I'd rated, I would've had a far more confident bet at Goodwood if I'd rated it correctly, and that really was one that got away. It was a difficult race to rate as it was the only race on the Sandown sprint track. I've often said that one horse close up shouldn't be used to downgrade a race when the rest of the field were thrashed, but that is the mistake I made by being reluctant to rate the race higher due to Mirza finishing where he did.
Ward has made a point of his filly being better spaced between races and I agree, this is what really swings it for me. If Battaash's Sandown win really was as good as it looks in hindsight of the Goodwood victory then he's already put in a couple of big performances in a short time and it could be difficult to do three on the spin. This would be a shame as it would mean he's put up two Gp1 performances but with only a Gp2 and a Gp3 to show for it, but that's how it goes sometimes. The only possible negative about LA is she didn't look as good last year after her Ascot win. I know the excuse could be made she was running over 6f but she never quite showed the same sparkle, for me. The same could happen this year but with her being a year older I'd expect her to be better equipped to withstand her racing and she's a bet. |
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Kerching!!
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Nice place Dunlaying.
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WD winners, unlucky lady Aurelia backers
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Well done uncle, excellent call on the place dunlaying.
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Nice one Dun, and Uncle gets the nod.
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Good thinking in so many ways Figgis - certainly got Battaash right. I have to say I rated Marsha's Newmarket run very highly but had assumed I was wrong, or that she had benefited from a stands' side bias. No bet for me sadly. Did you have Marsha anywhere near the front two?
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Howellsy, until today I also rated her Newmarket win a career best. I reckon that win took the edge off her and had her a few pounds below that on her subsequent runs. I had her third best to the top two in the market today. Only a quick estimate on today's racing so far but I reckon she's run to a new career best, 3lbs higher than Newmarket, with Lady Aurelia 3lbs below Ascot. As someone once said though it's not just how fast they run but how they run fast and I'll be surprised if Marsha backs this up in the near future. As for Battaash, the signs that he wasn't really ready for today began to show before the race. However he could be a bit of value in future. Some people will probably judge him not up to Gp1 class after this showing but I've seen many 3yos bounce back after putting in a poor run after big performances. It will be interesting to see his demeanour in the paddock next time.
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Yes, I hope you're right about him as he did look the real deal but I could never get a speed figure for him.
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Well done backers of Marsha for keeping faith with her after her disappointing run in Ireland; commiseration to backers of Lady Aurelia,...and poor Frankie! Let's hope Enable is able to atone for this near miss come Arc day.
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Richard Hughes wrote a good piece last year about York and betting against horses that won at ascot and Newmarket over sprint trips. It's, those fast away tend to freewheel, meaning they can't get a grip on the course, a bit like a car Aqua surfing. This could be the reason behind Battaash defeat, though, I'd argue it's his 3rd big race in 7 weeks..honestly can't see him doing much now for rest of season, but would put him away for temple stakes at haydock next year.
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I think Battash is a very good horse, but has a suspect temperament.
Probably why he's a gelding not a colt. Don't think that was anywhere near his true running, but you take the chance with him boiling over like that. Problems started during saddling apparently, and he was very on his toes and sweating in the paddock, before the antics at the start. |
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Figgis-RPR put MARSHA 4lb higher than Newmarket, and Lady Aurelia 2lb below her Ascot form-so you seem to be in good company with your numbers.
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Yes, Battaash has had his issues before leading to him being gelded. I've read elsewhere him being called a bit of a headcase but he had been fine in his previous three races so I think that's a bit unfair. When a horse is going into a race not in peak condition I think those kind of traits are more likely to resurface. He'd just put in a couple of big performances and possibly he was hurting a bit from those. I reckon sprinters are more likely than most to be able to bounce back from a poor effort so I wouldn't necessarily write him off for the season yet. I'd be more inclined to give him another chance than Caravaggio, who for me peaked as a 2yo. Battaash would be interesting in the Abbaye if he goes there but obviously it would be safer to assess him pre-race before backing him. It could also be worth giving him another chance over 6f as I don't think the Doncaster race was conclusive that he doesn't stay, he's settled better since then.
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With the allowance Marsha's latest form makes her the one to beat today as she attempts back to back wins. I still think that the Nunthorpe win was a very taxing effort though and it would be no surprise if she regresses from that. I reckon Battash's previous form is up to Gp1 standard and he was definitely below form last time. The question is whether he's over the top for the season or it was just a blip. At the price I think it's worth taking a chance on him returning to form today but will have a look at him at the start first.
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wd figgis, back to form today for battaash, those dark angel horses they are robust types
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Ta roadrunner. Pretty impressive today.
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