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Very trappy race so with Skybet offering 4 places I've gone for a rare each way bet on Venice Beach @ 11/1.
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I have 7 runners with only 3lbs between them so obviously not a race I have a very strong opinion on. At first I was going to give the race a miss but after more consideration I'm backing Crystal Ocean. I have him dead level with Capri and Venice Beach but of all the runners that look to have a chance he's the only one I thought could improve again on his most recent run and I'd have him as the favourite here at a bit shorter than his current price.
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Defoe looks an outrageous price. Lump on.
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a brutal betting heat this but still of interest
pace looks assured with the anvil and douglas macarthur in opposition, however o'brien has often not put the pace to the race when this scenario presents itself but on this occasion i see know reason why they shouldn't go a decent gallop one horse who i think needs a gallop on, is crystal ocean who has been keen in his races, a slow gallop is likely to make him race choke out and not get home...he is the one horse i think is the class in the race and the drying ground gives him his chance...his price is fair and i see no reason why he shouldn't at least go well...however his want to race choke out is a negative for me and up in trip i'm just going to have to watch him win and win he might capri is just a horse i have never been fond on at all but got the job done landing some bets in the irish derby... that race was a messy affair and o'brien made sure he got the pace just right in order to compromise the others runners on that occasion and land the money, he may do the same again here but that would compromise his other runner the one paced venice beach and his sons horse rekindling who both need speed to run at, so i see no reason why they won't at least go a fair gallop... on the 2 horses above i just think venice beach who apart from having a decent profile for the race is just paceless and hasn't stepped forward at all as the season has progressed, he maybe able to clugg on for a place but makes limited appeal to win..he should be in peak condition after 2 prep races but they were both weak affairs and he found very little when asked...the voltigeur still remains a horrible race to judge and i'm in the camp that believe it took no winning at all as none of the runners did any running in that race...it's a shame the one paced cracksman didn't run, he would of loved the long straight here...rekindling who looks to of been laid out for this, he has his chance and is a nice stayer in the making but not for me at this level as he looks to be a ceiling horse at this trip, i'm sure there are more days ahead for him when stamina is at a premium stradivarius comes here after taking care of the goodwood cup he is an improving young stayer, however i don't implicitly trust his rating from goodwood and also feel the ascot race although a competitive affair lacked any real class, so although he looks to have a major chance on his goodwood running i wonder how much more there is to come and also worry a tad whether that race may have left his mark on the horse...he just makes little appeal at the price but has his chance all the same defoe just keeps stepping up and is going the right way, he appeared to me to just be idling at newbury and still think he would of put the second horse away even if that horse had got a clean run...he has his chance and am sure will have been well prepared, it's just the price with me and also the drying ground but i still think he has a really good chance but has to step forward again and it's just whether immaturity beats him...his hamilton win was a decent run but just how good was that race? as the second who has won since, went a tad to quick in first time headgear and was just paddling in the furlong, defoe picked him up but it was hard work...he is a lovely long term project and has his chance here, can he step up again this quick, i'm not sure but still believe he can run a good race raheen house is a nice type but just not sure how good he is and just looks a solid group horse without setting the world alight, the drying ground will help but like a few here the lack of a prep run isn't ideal coronet is a nice filly and has stepped forward with each race without being taken into the red and the reason she hasn't been taken into the red is her stable mate enable...they clearly knew she couldn't beat her but has still run some nice races behind the good horse without being overly punished in the process, i think she is going to devour this trip and step forward again from her career best last time it's just whether you believe you are getting the right price as i missed the 10/1 earlier in the week, anyway have taken a little of the 7/1 ew and think she can run a big race here over a trip she will like a good betting heat enjoy |
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Capri for me with form in two Derbys.
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It is interesting Frankie has chosen Coronet and she is drifting. She has always been held in high regard by JG and has run in Group 1 races in 4 of her last 5 runs. Unlike Stradivarius. Perhaps he thinks the better fillies are better than the colts and this may well give a clearer insight into what Frankie is thinking. If she wins or goes very close that will probably put the brakes on the Arc as far as Cracksman is concerned whereas if she is well beaten the pressure will be on him running. Not a betting race for me at all but it will be interesting to watch.
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good race the filly didn't get home, very well done winners
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Well done Capri backers. Don't understand how it's being called an above average Leger, I'm sure it was deeper than usual but not outstanding winning form for me, not that it matters to the winner's backers of course.
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The time was fairly good.
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though that looked a decent running,well done Capri,very brave...
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When Aidan puts pacemakers in often wonder if only his jocks know what they are doing that was another exceptionally well executed race after couple furlongs makes you wonder if some of the others had even thought about Plan B by that time they are 10 or 20 lengths off second pushing more than they want and using up valuable gas wonder if that is a lesson to be learned once again Coolmore lot have shown are well in front ALL rest.
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I thought Rekindling was given a brainless ride. Ridden for a turn of foot 10 lengths behind the handy horses including the winner when he is a strong stayer. In the circumstances he did very well to stay on and only get beaten 2 lengths. Well done Capri backers.
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Well done to the backers of Capri and Moore!
I think the race was set-up perfectly for Capri, but the backers of Douglas Macarthur and Venice Beach knew their fate once they assumed the pacesetting duty after The Anvil ran out of puff - he went off like a scalded cat. Moore had Capri well positioned throughout the race but the jockeys on Crystal Ocean and Rekindling (2nd and 4th respectively) were too far off Capri and the pace thus foregoing too much ground to sustain an effective challenge at the business end. Stradivarius had every chance and only got collared at the 1f pole to finish 3rd eventually. A hard race for the winner Capri and unlikely Arc bound in two weeks' time, I believe. |
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Worthy winner.
Crystal Ocean was best horse but was always going to be vulnerable at the trip and it's amazing the owner has allowed Stoute to miss the Derby and Arc with him when the mile and a half looked ideal, |
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trifecta paid 95.40 and top 3 form picks performed to standard, would of liked to see Stradivarius win that race, proven stamina over the distance and had a winning profile, and was in the optimum price range, before the price
collapsed. |
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As a frequent critic of his in the past I fell duty bound to report that Dosage Guy tipped the winner.
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Lucky had each-way bet Stadivarious for antepost money back. All the rage but not meant to be
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