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johnnyrant
01 Aug 17 20:15
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Date Joined: 14 Feb 07
| Topic/replies: 23,551 | Blogger: johnnyrant's blog
Lots of excitement surrounding Stradivarius today but I've long thought Coronet has a stronger profile for this race. Got both at nice double figure odds AP but still favour the filly - think she has a bit more speed.

Murtagh summed it up today - they wanted him to join in the chorus of Stradivarius the one for the Leger but he was adament Johnny G has better back at the yard.
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Report impossible123 August 1, 2017 8:47 PM BST
Stradivarius was impressive today nonetheless, I think the winner will probably come from the Epsom Derby participants myself. But he might not run in the Great Voltigeur.
Report unclepuncle August 1, 2017 9:23 PM BST
Presumably Murtagh was referring to Cracksman?
Report ReaseHeath August 2, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Cracksman is n't entered - Gosden has consistently said he'll be roughed off for the season after the Great Voltigeur and it looks like he's sticking to that.

Gosden has seven entries (if I've counted correctly!) - to me Khalidi and Coronet look to be the pick of them outside of Stradavarius...
Report impossible123 August 14, 2017 9:09 PM BST
Good to hear AOB mentioned Venice Beach, Capri and Spanish Steps as 3 or 4 possibles for the Great Voltigeur.
Report impossible123 August 23, 2017 9:03 PM BST
Venice Beach was no match for Cracksman (seemed vastly improved since the Epsom Derby) in the Voltigeur nonetheless he still ran a good trial for this race, I believe; there was 6l between himself and Mirage Dancer (3rd), and was staying on at the finish. Unless connections of Cracksman have a change of heart, and with doubts about the stamina of Capri and Crystal Ocean (the front two in the betting), Venice Beach at 20/1 might not seem a bad bet if he is definitely here bound, I think.
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 23, 2017 11:01 PM BST
20/1 is decent value, he'll love the trip, imo.
Report unclepuncle August 24, 2017 10:56 AM BST
impossible123 23 Aug 17 21:03
Venice Beach at 20/1 might not seem a bad bet if he is definitely here bound, I think.


So for the record have you backed him at 20/1 or are you waiting until he is confirmed - when of course he will likely be a shorter price.
Report ReaseHeath August 24, 2017 3:53 PM BST
Coronet looking a decent shout by johnnyrant - perfectly acceptable trial run there

no bet for me yet...
Report impossible123 September 6, 2017 2:36 PM BST
I'm finding it difficult to fathom why is Crystal Ocean fav. What has he beaten,...Khalidi in the soft? He was beaten several times by Permian. Could his standing at the head of the betting market be trainer related? If memory serves, I thought Moore was not entirely sure or enthusiastic he was a Leger horse either post his latest win.

Similarly, Capri the 2nd fav. The general consensus was he was gifted the Irish Derby by careful race planning/riding by his stablemates. He had every chance in the Epsom Derby but faded to finish 6th; he also appeared not to stay in the Derrinstown despite tracking the winner in 2nd place eventually finishing 3rd. And, he also just held on in the Irish Derby after having 1st run on those behind him.

Defoe and Stradivarius: The former beating handicappers and only won a Gp3; the latter managed to beat Big Orange the winner of the Goodwood Cup.

A shame no Cracksman otherwise he'd be odds-on. As such, a very open race next saturday, and probably a big priced winner too.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 7, 2017 7:02 AM BST
Imp .. say this every year 5 - 10 to post 4 will look like staying 2 out three will go on and Strad will outstay them EASILY if in continues to rain. Is a most odd race particularly if they go a reasonable clip from the start.
Report impossible123 September 7, 2017 10:07 AM BST
Indeed, Stradivarius is the one I respect most especially if the ground is soft as it could mean stamina is of the essence. But I think there will be at least 10 runners - it is so open - with AOB responsible for at least 3. I do not think it is a given Moore will choose Capri given the promising run of Venice Beach in France and against Cracksman - he was also running on at the finish, if the ground is good or better.
Report impossible123 September 8, 2017 12:46 PM BST
Rekindling and Venice Beach have not been declared for the Irish St Leger this sunday. Does that mean they will run in the English equivalent next saturday, all things being equal? Let's hope so as I believe both can take a hand in the finish esp if the ground is good or better, and both will stay the trip too.
Report johnnyrant September 8, 2017 7:56 PM BST
I'm 99% certain Stradivarius doesn't want soft ground. He got away with it at Goodwood cos it was the slow side of good on the opening day, & with the weight-for-age scale, it was shrewd placement by Johnny G.

Ground is, as always, going to be key. Currently forecast to be a mostly dry week at Donny. I still prefer Coronet of Gosden's contenders - crying out for this trip imho & has more class than the colt imho. I rate Crystal Ocean's chance, & think he's the main danger, assuming the race is run on good ground. Stoute has a good record in the Leger & I think he'll probably stay.
Report impossible123 September 8, 2017 9:26 PM BST
Crystal Ocean, Defoe and Stradivarius are way too short for me on what they have achieved thus cannot have them on my book; Coronet ran well behind Enable but not for me either.

However, I do hope the present weather holds for next week too, and Venice Beach and Rekindling run. After last year with Idaho (10/1) I could do with a change of luck!
Report keeping silent September 9, 2017 1:31 PM BST
Raheen House ew for me .
Report the bloob September 10, 2017 5:41 PM BST
I can't have Coronet at all in this race, I think Stradivarius is by far Gosden's best chance. The form from Goodwood is obviously very impressive on paper but the 13lb allowance over longer trips is massive, over 2 miles it equates to about 1lb per length so that's 13 lengths. I think 5/1 is fair, and Gosden's recent record in the race is good

at the current prices I like the look of Venice Beach, looks a stayer and would have been a very impressive winner of the Voltigeur without the presence of Cracksman. Take Cracksman out of that race and Venice would be half the price now
Report impossible123 September 10, 2017 6:06 PM BST
Venice Beach will be 1/2 present price when he is confirmed, I believe; the run of Rekindling behind OoSg in the Irish St Leger Trial has just been boosted with OoSG winning by a mile today.
Report the bloob September 10, 2017 6:22 PM BST
ok, I know they are a very hard bunch to predict but surely it is their 2nd best chance in the race? I would have thought Capri, Venice Beach and a pacemaker would be their best option
Report liberator of the oppressed September 10, 2017 6:59 PM BST
bloob .. start drawing your money out and maxing out the cards unlikley but could end up like a bog drove through Donnie earlier today was raining understand is still raining and whilst is a week to go and the course drains particularly well you will need to stay if things stay like this and we know this oss does and does that very well.
Report Fallen Angel September 11, 2017 11:05 AM BST
@impossible, hoping that to be the case with Venice Beach! obviously being beaten fair and square by Cracksman but he does look more of a stayer, plus if it does rain i think that might help him. I have him @25s. They normally go with more than one even if it appears Capri is number 1.
Report dyno-layer September 11, 2017 11:33 AM BST
the end of the week looks predominantly dry and breezy.. It will dry out i suspect back to good decent ground.
Report dyno-layer September 11, 2017 11:34 AM BST
Monday 11 September—Sunday 17 September
Cool, showery and often windy. Drier later.
The week begins with a yellow warning in place for southwest England and South Wales for strong westerly winds. But all parts will be cool and breezy with heavy and locally thundery showers, with sunny intervals in between.
Tuesday daytime will see sunshine and fewer showers, before wet and very windy weather sweeps eastwards overnight, followed by westerly gales in some areas - these winds may be disruptive.
Wednesday and Thursday will be blustery, cool days with heavy showers in most areas, but by next weekend the weather will be turning calmer with more dry weather around, although there could still be a few showers - in southeast England on Saturday, and in the northwest on Sunday.
Report johnnyrant September 11, 2017 11:54 AM BST
soft, heavy in places Shocked wtf happened? Changes everything. Simply will not dry out very much this week with showery outlook.
Report johnnyrant September 11, 2017 11:55 AM BST
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
Report dyno-layer September 11, 2017 12:01 PM BST
Dont bet until day of the race
Report johnnyrant September 11, 2017 12:03 PM BST
13 confirmed
Report johnnyrant September 11, 2017 12:40 PM BST
Abyssinian, Air Supremacy, Capri, Count Octave, Crystal Ocean, Defoe, Douglas Macarthur, Raheen House, Rekindling, Stradivarius, The Anvil, Venice Beach, Coronet
Report johnnyrant September 11, 2017 12:41 PM BST
Just the 6 AOB runners
Report impossible123 September 11, 2017 5:15 PM BST
AOB has declared 6 at present with Capri leading the pack at 4/1, but he finished behind Douglas Macarthur and Rekindling and having every chance in Ireland; he also did not seem to stay the Derby trip at Epsom. He was also gifted the Irish Derby; he had a clear run to the post unlike the other principal runners jockeying for positions; the fav of the race Wings Of Eagles sustained a career ending injury during the race.

The ground is soft at present with little or no rain from wednesday 6am to race day. Venice Beach (VB) can go in the soft and was running on towards the end over 12f against Cracksman at York but is better on good ground, I believe; Rekindling is proven on this trip against Order Of St George and Wicklow Bay in Ireland.
Report impossible123 September 11, 2017 11:53 PM BST
Someone is doing a Nelson Bunker Hunt with the price of VB - his price has collapsed.
Report dyno-layer September 12, 2017 6:58 AM BST
2017-09-13 - DONCASTER
Updated - September 11th 2017, 3:05:12 pm


Friday 7.6 mm of rainfall temp high +18
Saturday 5.2mm of rainfall
Sunday Dry
Monday 17mm of rainfall at 15-04 Cry
Forecast is unsettled a risk of rain or showers Tuesday and Wednesday with strong gusting winds. Forecasts currently to be dry Thursday onwards with temp high +17
Report dyno-layer September 12, 2017 9:24 AM BST
Out of interest Doncaster have updated their going stick reading as of this morming @ 7-45am ...6.0

This is the joint lowest reading the course have had all year, flat and jumps

Another deluge forecast overnight followed by a mainly dryish and windy forecast.

If anyone has a form book that shows a horses ability on sticky rotton cloggy ground then find the one most likely to excel under these circumstances
Report the bloob September 12, 2017 7:13 PM BST
Donny dries out very quickly, one of the best draining courses in the country. With a couple of dry days I can see Good to Soft on Saturday
Report dyno-layer September 12, 2017 7:29 PM BST
Put a thick black line through 

*** any top of the ground horses

*** any doubtful stayers.

*** any horse with a long absence to overcome ( as this test is likely to pull the guts right out of them )

Ideally you are looking for an uncomplicated horse who can grind through the tacky slurp and probably stay 2 miles
Report impossible123 September 12, 2017 8:30 PM BST
If soggy ground and stamina sapping Crystal Ocean could be inconvenienced the most of the fancied ones. Defoe and Rekindling perhaps, and the latter has Gp 1 form to boot and a proven stayer over this trip.
Report dyno-layer September 12, 2017 8:45 PM BST
IIm not seeing where rekindling wants rotton ground tbh ... Defoe will cope. As things stand He is the percentage call i think
Report the bloob September 12, 2017 8:48 PM BST
Crystal Ocean won a G3 easily at Goodwood on Soft, but I agree that the trip could be a problem in softish ground
Report impossible123 September 12, 2017 10:15 PM BST
I do not foresee the soft/yielding ground (if so) is an issue for Rekindling and neither will the trip but it might trip up Crystal Ocean and Coronet. I was a fan of Capri last season and beginning of this but I do not think he will stay the trip; the victory of Stradivarius over Big Orange, I believe) was made to look better because of the softish ground which inconvenienced the latter massively. Defoe keeps delivering may it be only in Listed and Gp 3 races; he is also improving and is the unknown.

Rekindling (2nd Gp 1 winner for Joseph perhaps) and Venice Beach (Moore's choice?) against the field for me.
Report 1st time poster September 13, 2017 3:24 PM BST
heard Jason weaver say the other night there was a ton of money early on in derby week,when there was a horrendous forecast as though they expected it to run well on bad ground,drifting if anything at the moment though
Report unclepuncle September 14, 2017 12:52 PM BST
Very trappy race so with Skybet offering 4 places I've gone for a rare each way bet on Venice Beach @ 11/1.
Report Figgis September 16, 2017 8:53 AM BST
I have 7 runners with only 3lbs between them so obviously not a race I have a very strong opinion on. At first I was going to give the race a miss but after more consideration I'm backing Crystal Ocean. I have him dead level with Capri and Venice Beach but of all the runners that look to have a chance he's the only one I thought could improve again on his most recent run and I'd have him as the favourite here at a bit shorter than his current price.
Report Angela Rebecchi September 16, 2017 10:42 AM BST
Defoe looks an outrageous price. Lump on.
Report harry callaghan September 16, 2017 1:05 PM BST
a brutal betting heat this but still of interest

pace looks assured with the anvil and douglas macarthur in opposition, however o'brien has often not put the pace to the race when this scenario presents itself but on this occasion i see know reason why they shouldn't go a decent gallop

one horse who i think needs a gallop on, is crystal ocean who has been keen in his races, a slow gallop is likely to make him race choke out and not get home...he is the one horse i think is the class in the race and the drying ground gives him his chance...his price is fair and i see no reason why he shouldn't at least go well...however his want to race choke out is a negative for me and up in trip i'm just going to have to watch him win and win he might

capri is just a horse i have never been fond on at all but got the job done landing some bets in the irish derby... that race was a messy affair and o'brien made sure he got the pace just right in order to compromise the others runners on that occasion and land the money, he may do the same again here but that would compromise his other runner the one paced venice beach and his sons horse rekindling who both need speed to run at, so i see no reason why they won't at least go a fair gallop...

on the 2 horses above i just think venice beach who apart from having a decent profile for the race is just paceless and  hasn't stepped forward at all as the season has progressed, he maybe able to clugg on for a place but makes limited appeal to win..he should be in peak condition after 2 prep races but they were both weak affairs and he found very little when asked...the voltigeur still remains a horrible race to judge and i'm in the camp that believe it took no winning at all as none of the runners did any running in that race...it's a shame the one paced cracksman didn't run, he would of loved the long straight here...rekindling who looks to of been laid out for this, he has his chance and is a nice stayer in the making but not for me at this level as he looks to be a ceiling horse at this trip, i'm sure there are more days ahead for him when stamina is at a premium

stradivarius comes here after taking care of the goodwood cup he is an improving young stayer, however i don't implicitly trust his rating from goodwood and also feel the ascot race although a competitive affair lacked any real class, so although he looks to have a major chance on his goodwood running i wonder how much more there is to come and also worry a tad whether that race may have left his mark on the horse...he just makes little appeal at the price but has his chance all the same

defoe just keeps stepping up and is going the right way, he appeared to me to just be idling at newbury and still think he would of put the second horse away even if that horse had got a clean run...he has his chance and am sure will have been well prepared, it's just the price with me and also the drying ground but i still think he has a really good chance but has to step forward again and it's just whether immaturity beats him...his hamilton win was a decent run but just how good was that race? as the second who has won since, went a tad to quick in first time headgear and was just paddling in the furlong, defoe picked him up but it was hard work...he is a lovely long term project and has his chance here, can he step up again this quick, i'm not sure but still believe he can run a good race

raheen house is a nice type but just not sure how good he is and just looks a solid group horse without setting the world alight, the drying ground will help but like a few here the lack of a prep run isn't ideal

coronet is a nice filly and has stepped forward with each race without being taken into the red and the reason she hasn't been taken into the red is her stable mate enable...they clearly knew she couldn't beat her but has still run some nice races behind the good horse without being overly punished in the process, i think she is going to devour this trip and step forward again from her career best last time it's just whether you believe you are getting the right price as i missed the 10/1 earlier in the week, anyway have taken a little of the 7/1 ew and think she can run a big race here over a trip she will like

a good betting heat enjoy
Report kincsem September 16, 2017 1:20 PM BST
Capri for me with form in two Derbys.
Report brigust1 September 16, 2017 3:29 PM BST
It is interesting Frankie has chosen Coronet and she is drifting. She has always been held in high regard by JG and has run in Group 1 races in 4 of her last 5 runs. Unlike Stradivarius. Perhaps he thinks the better fillies are better than the colts and this may well give a clearer insight into what Frankie is thinking. If she wins or goes very close that will probably put the brakes on the Arc as far as Cracksman is concerned whereas if she is well beaten the pressure will be on him running. Not a betting race for me at all but it will be interesting to watch.
Report harry callaghan September 16, 2017 3:45 PM BST
good race the filly didn't get home, very well done winners
Report Figgis September 16, 2017 4:00 PM BST
Well done Capri backers. Don't understand how it's being called an above average Leger, I'm sure it was deeper than usual but not outstanding winning form for me, not that it matters to the winner's backers of course.
Report kincsem September 16, 2017 4:06 PM BST
The time was fairly good.
Report jedi sophie September 16, 2017 4:08 PM BST
though that looked a decent running,well done Capri,very brave...
Report liberator of the oppressed September 16, 2017 4:18 PM BST
When Aidan puts pacemakers in often wonder if only his jocks know what they are doing that was another exceptionally well executed race after couple furlongs makes you wonder if some of the others had even thought about Plan B by that time they are 10 or 20 lengths off second pushing more than they want and using up valuable gas wonder if that is a lesson to be learned once again Coolmore lot have shown are well in front ALL rest.
Report Swagger September 16, 2017 4:29 PM BST
I thought Rekindling was given a brainless ride. Ridden for a turn of foot 10 lengths behind the handy horses including the winner when he is a strong stayer. In the circumstances he did very well to stay on and only get beaten 2 lengths. Well done Capri backers.
Report impossible123 September 16, 2017 4:32 PM BST
Well done to the backers of Capri and Moore!

I think the race was set-up perfectly for Capri, but the backers of Douglas Macarthur and Venice Beach knew their fate once they assumed the pacesetting duty after The Anvil ran out of puff - he went off like a scalded cat. Moore had Capri well positioned throughout the race but the jockeys on Crystal Ocean and Rekindling (2nd and 4th respectively) were too far off Capri and the pace thus foregoing too much ground to sustain an effective challenge at the business end. Stradivarius had every chance and only got collared at the 1f pole to finish 3rd eventually.

A hard race for the winner Capri and unlikely Arc bound in two weeks' time, I believe.
Report unclepuncle September 16, 2017 4:49 PM BST
Worthy winner.

Crystal Ocean was best horse but was always going to be vulnerable at the trip and it's amazing the owner has allowed Stoute  to miss the Derby and Arc with him when the mile and a half looked ideal,
Report roadrunner46 September 16, 2017 6:38 PM BST
trifecta paid 95.40 and top 3 form picks performed to standard, would of liked to see Stradivarius win that race, proven stamina over the distance and had a winning profile, and was in the optimum price range, before the price
collapsed.
Report li September 20, 2017 2:35 PM BST
As a frequent critic of his in the past I fell duty bound to report that Dosage Guy tipped the winner.
Report woodmanchester September 21, 2017 1:01 AM BST
Lucky had each-way bet Stadivarious for antepost money back. All the rage but not meant to be
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