National Hunt 17/18 Big Races Thread

aye cheers noc, he ran a god race.

4.40
Good Man Pat 0.5pt ew @ 50/1 (Ski, 4plcs)

5-15 aint

Al Dancer 0.25pt

Highland Hunter 0.25pt both betfair sp

+109

mirsaale -0.5
c name -0.5
baie des illes -1 IP
raz de maree -1 IP
distime -0.5
e miracle -0.5
doitforthevillage -0.5
e hill -0.5
c minstrel -0.5
oo7 -0.5
ultragold +8.85  (betfair sp 18.7)
a dancer /h hunter -0.5

+111.35 / 2 IP

Not sure how much rain f/cast......the Topham time suggests its not that different ground to the mildmay,judged on the melling time against standard.

Thoughts anyone ?

nice win today noc. Going was changed to heavy for the national coarse prior to the Topham, any stamina doubts will be totally exposed tomorrow even if it's a dry 24hrs, rules plenty out for me, hopefully this one below might be plodding on. 3 darts at the big one tomorrow, will probably be suckered into another!

GN
Final Nudge 0.5pt ew @ 50/1 (Lards, 5plcs)

Evening GI......Thanks M8

Both the Topham/Foxhunters, are they telling us something?,is there even more emphasis on course form on softer ground,not too many results to judge that on as its normally quicker ground,Gas Line Boy was a clue possibly earlier in season.

Probably hang on now and see how it goes tomorrow,Houblon falls into a similar category as above,instinct tells me they have been messing around with him,everything geared towards tomorrow.Stable in flying form,never put in the race last year,under minimal assistance he flew over the last couple fences,interesting to see if he's nearer the pace early doors.

Never a race to get too hung up on,all you can ask is they get round in one piece,avoid the carnage,and come home safely to fight another day,anything else is a bonus.

3 cracking handicaps on the under-card,lets hope we can nail a couple of those between us,be very rude not to have a small investment.

wd Noc & GI


No Hassle Hoff 0.75pt 20/1 gen

Then going for the Midlands Nat, Welsh Nat, Irish Nat horses who've proven on heavy ground over extreme distances for my scatter gun. I'm wary of getting too involved in the National on this type of going.

Chase The Spud
Alpha Des Obeaux
Raz De MAree
Carlingford Lough
Thunder and Roses
Houblon Des Obeaux

all 0.5pt betfair sp

cheers cv,

Aintree 2.25
Lostintranslation 0.5pt ew @ 16/1 (SB)

connections of vintage cloud must be well f Ucked off this morning... The reserve, walk in the park, that got in ahead of them is a non runner, and also regal Encore (Bad blood my @rse).

Aintree 3.40
Pearl Swan 0.5pt ew @ 16/1 (Uni)

Aintree 6.20
Not That Fuisse 0.5pt ew @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)

Aintree 4.20
Identity Thief 1pt ew @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)

^ Just the once

Good luck everyone today

1345 Aintree
Connetable 0.7 pts win 12's
Prime Venture 1pt ew 20's
Sykes 0.7pts ew 33's
All Sky ew's 6pls

1-45 Aint

Red Indian 0.5pt

No Hassle Hoff 0.5pt  both betfair sp


GL ALL

1425 - Silver Concorde 1pt ew 50’s (Lads)

2-25 Momella 0.5pt  betfair sp

connections of vintage cloud must be well f Ucked off this morning... The reserve, walk in the park, that got in ahead of them is a non runner, and also regal Encore (Bad blood my @rse).



totally agree with this mac disgusting stuff in regards the going as well, they all knew on thursday shame i liked vintage for this

1540 Aintree
Ibis Du Rheu 1pt win 8's
Heist 0.7pts ew 33's 5pls
On Tour 0.7pts win 12's
All Sky

3-40

Holly Bush Henry 0.5pt

Very First Time 0.5pt  both betfair sp

Get In GI......Nice hit

cheers noc, I enjoyed that one

GL All in the big one

Brilliant Mac

5-15

Houblon Des Obeaux 0.5pt

Thunder And Roses 0.5pt  both betfair sp

Brilliant FAB......Done you proud fella

Tiger

Well done winners, I'm currently gutted after that race

+11.5 / 1 IP

Silsol -1
Krackatoa King -1
Lough Derg Farmer -1
Fingerontheswitch -1
Clondaw Warrior -1
Sutton Manor -1
Oscar Knight -1
Treshnish -1
Seldom Inn -1
Blakemount -1
Bedrock +5.5
Bigbadjohn -1
Good Man Pat -1
Final Nudge -1
Lostintranslation +1.5
Pearl Swan -1
Not That Fuisse NR
Identity Thief + 25

Antipost
Pleasant Company +7.75
Des Obeaux -1

+36.25 / 0 IP

6-20

Birch Hill 0.5pt

Solatentif 0.5pt  both betfair sp

Thanks Noc, he is a little star.

Mac, never know how to pitch these things, but so close, and commiserations.

Punchestown Gold Cup - General Principle 1.5pts ew 50's (Various)

Punchestown Gold Cup - Sandymount Duke 1.5pts ew 66's (Various)

Feel the pain GI

Sunnyhill boy still rankles me and many others.....with McLernowt showboating looking at the big screen on the run in,the huge consolation being hardly ever backed anything with him aboard since,at no great loss.

+111.35
r indian/n h hoff -1
momella -0.5
h b henry/v f time -1
h d obeaux/t a roses -1
b hill/solatentif -1

r de maree 0
b d Illes 0

+106.85 / 0 IP

Down a little on the three days,having banged on about the Irish horses coming to the fore on testing ground,with a few on here,something I will take away from this season as a whole.

FAB has been banging the Tiger Roll drum all season......and I know he backed him at huge odds from the start season for yesterdays race,very special horse, who may now get the credit he deserves.

Tough three days......well done to those coming out on top.

aye, it was a real p!sser. I'd actually resigned myself to 2nd place as TR went past but then PC rallied again and just got headed
Been backing him quite a bit from 66's downwards. A nice enough ew return I guess, the festivals have been kind, so I guess I can't complain. Onwards we go. WD again backers of Tiger Roll, he really is some horse.

The Irish dominance is such a big thing now noc, cannot be ignored. Mullins/Elliot fighting out the finish of the big one says it all. Hendo still pitching in there, and fair play to Nicholls who still delivers but nowhere near as many as the others. I wonder if the Irish dominance, and the fact they have plenty of the good horses, is significant in the downturn of stables such as Pipe, Hobbs, Jonjo etc, they do not appear to have any top notchers these days.

Antipost
Scottish Grand National
Label Des Obeaux 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 (VC)

B/F +199.02    IP 31.2

Modus -1
Clan Des Obeaux-1
Sizing Codelco -1.4
Barrakilla -0.7
Theflyingportrait -1.4
Buildmeupbuttercup -1.4
Massini’s Trap -2
Midnight Shadow -3
Sam’s Gunner -2
Thosedaysategone -3
Court Minstrel -1.4
Minds Eye -1
Connetable -0.7
Sykes -1.4
Silver Concorde -2
Ibis Du Rheu -1
Heist -1.4
On Tour -0.7

General Principle -3
Sandymount Duke -3

General Principle +2
Prime Venture +4
Tiger Roll +96.75

C/F +269.32    IP 11

1540 Kelso - Newtown Lad 3pts win 6's (Various)

Tremendous profit figures Fabulous. Very well done

Many thanks Facts, much appreciated.

2-40 chelt

Voix Deau 0.5pt

Quite By Chance 0.5pt  both betfair sp

3-15 chelt

Diable De Sivola 0.5pt

Qualando 0.5pt  both betfair sp

1515 Cheltenham
Indian Stream 14's
Midnight Jazz
Both 1pt ew 5pls (PPower)

1515 Cheltenham
Indian Stream 14's
Midnight Jazz 18's
Both 1pt ew 5pls (PPower)

Scottish National - Fagan 1.5pt win 12’s (Various)

Gordon can't can he ? Irish, Aintree and Scottish !!
I was hoping he'd send Folsom Blue.
As he hasn't, I'm relying on Vintage Clouds and Doing Fine.
Good luck

Thanks Facts, I hope he can

Had a smaller bet on Fagan last week at 16's, he was going to be a saver, but with Daklondike not getting declared, I had to top up, always liked this horse.

I'll also rely on Vicente, could be too obvious, but 9-1 looks ok to me. I'll add one more, probably be Tennessee, but I'll wait till Sat.

Vicente 1pt win 9's (Various)

1545 Ayr - Sizing Platinum 0.7pts ew 14’s 4pls (Sky)

1645 Ayr
Bon Chic 0.7pts ew 22's 5pls (Freds)
Black Tulip 0.7pt win 16's (Various)

1905 Limerick - Aranhill Rascal 3pt win 14's (Various)
Scottish National - Sizing Tennessee 1.5pts ew 16's 6p's (Boyles)

Ayr 1.45
Dandridge 1pt win @ 9/1 (SB)
Foxtail Hill 0.5pt ew @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)

Ayr 4.05
Doing Fine 1pt win @ 11/1 (SB)

Ayr 5.15
The Road Home 1pt win @ 14/1 (SB)

Morning GI.....Excellent card there today,another AL CO would do just fine.

1-45 ayr Upsilon Bleu 1pt 18/1 var

1345 Ayr
Foxtail Hill 1pt ew 16's (Various)
Double W's 0.7 pts win 9's (Various)

1420 Ayr
Dingo Dollar 1pt win 7's (UBet)
Shades of Midnight 0.7pts ew 16's (Various)
Mr Mix 0.5pts ew 25's (Various)

1455 Ayr
Midnight Shadow 0.7pts ew 66's (Hills)

1640 Ayr
Jimmy Breekie 0.5pts ew 25's 4p's (Sky)

1755 Ayr
Senior Citizen 1pt ew 20's (Various)

Morning noc, you have a good memory

Indeed a great card today, very competative hcps to get stuck into - the big one especially.

2-20 ayr

Born Survivor 0.5pt

Pickamix 0.5pt both betfair sp

Ayr 4.05
Fact Of The Matter 0.5pt ew @ 80/1 (PP, 6plcs)

2-55 Chesterfield 1pt b/fair sp

Big Hit Fab.....WP

fab

Going well

4-05 ayr

Silsol 0.5pt

Cogry 0.5pt

Sizing Codelco 0.5pt   all b/fair sp

Incredible Fab. Well done.

Thanks lads, much appreciated.

Going to try another

1715 Ayr - Boruma 0.7pts ew 66’s 4pls (Sky)

B/F 269.32 IP 11

Daklondike
Beyond The Clouds
Newtown Lad -3
Indian Stream -2
Midnight Jazz -2
Fagan -1.5
Vicente -1
Bon Chic -1.4
Black Tulip -0.7
Sizing Tennessee -3
Aranhill Rascal -3
Foxtail Hill -2
Double W's -0.7
Dingo Dollar -1
Shades of Midnight -1.4
Mr Mix -1

Sizing Platinum +1.75
Senior Citizen +4
Midnight Shadow +57.75

C/F +309.12   IP 6

Missed the last one

+307.72  IP 6

B365 Gold Cup
Theatre Guide 1.5 pts ew 40's (Various)
Minella Daddy 0.7 pts ew 33's (888)
Impulsive Star 1pt win 20's (Sky)

+106.85

vd/qbc -1
dds / qual -1
up bleu -1
bs / pickamix -1
chesterfield -1
sil/cogry/siz cod -1.5

+100.35 / 0 IP

Tremendous profit Fab.......Those big hits continued throughout the season,testament to the work you put in.

Uncanny gift of sniffing out where trainers target horses,sticking plenty of those winners up weeks in advance of those respective targets,pleasure to see on a regular basis.....well done.

Big meeting over the water this week,this change in going has thrown up some interesting results,no surprise if that continues.

I was way off the mark at Ayr,something to ponder moving forwards,CVB was probably correct couple weeks back,winding down the season after the big festivals over here.Every season always offers the clues,finding them in our own betting patterns is the tricky bit.

Best of luck to those playing this week,taking the Cuprinol stance at the moment.

I'm away for a week and Fab's got two mega hits. Top stuff. Some totally wild levels of tipping in here this season.

Punchy

Sharjah 0.5pt 14/1 gen
Bunk off Early 0.75pt 14/1 pp
Invitation Only 0.5pt 14/1 b365
Dounikos 0.5pt ew 40/1 pp
Ordinary World 0.5pt e/w 33/1 b365

Many thanks Noc & cvb.

Noc, i said last season that the Scottish National meeting was the one I was going to avoid, but still went for it this year.
With the exception of Midnight Shadow, it was wall to wall losers, and definitely something for me to consider.

Cvb, hopefully Ordinary World can make the frame.

Punchestown
1655 Western Boy 1.5pts ew 11’s 6pls (Sky)
1655 Joey Sasa 0.7pts win 12’s (Various)
1655 Ben Dundee 0.7 pts win 16’s (Various)
1730 Ordinary World 1.5pts ew 33’s (B365)

Evening both.....Away again CVB    

Your the man for Punchestown......That Sharjah is interesting,remember RR saying two minutes before the supreme that he doesn't go on heavy,not sure he was that candid at the previews I read.

Agreed Fab,one of the other reasons that posting on here can be invaluable.Nobody minds getting touched off,par for the course,but when your miles off,as I was at the weekend,any self doubt can creep in pretty quickly.

When other posters are going through the same,we touched on Jan/Feb earlier on this thread,it is worth bearing in mind.Not just Ayr,the two day meeting at HQ was no better,really liked horses at both meetings,most were never at the races,beaten out of sight.

Hopefully it does not come across as an excuse exercise,that is not the intention,more a case of trying to find out why certain times of year/meetings are generally harder to work out,possibly to avoid.

Any thoughts welcome,not sure how you got on GI ?......certainly would go with yours and Fab knowledge of the northern scene over mine,not quite your back yard,but you get the point.

Onwards

I think with experience comes the confidence and acknowledgement that bad runs are simply part of the game. I'd expect it to be even more common as avg odds of horses backed increase and strike rate decreases. I am still annoyed during a losing run (had two this season) but they do not impact my better, the concept of chasing or lowering odds just doesn't even feature in my thoughts. I just have a wee moan is all.

I really think that looking at times of the year and trying to work out what meetings you're good at or bad at etc.. is a bit of a red herring. I now don't worry about things like that. I do think about class of races as I'm better at better racing and records show that. 

From reviewing this season I noticed I don't really increase stakes above my standard bet size, though I do take some smaller than my standard bet. I keep my stakes on here to levels that mirror my own betting which I assume others do too. So really my standard bet is really my max bet, when I started the season with my standard bet as 1pt and I'd keep record of roi.

So I'm tempted to move more towards a confined staking level basically just around a standard stake. Evidence from past two seasons shows level stake profit mirroring my normal profit. So it's one part of thought process I could simply remove by going with a standard stake as default for everything. I also am too selective with my bets as evidenced by the roi so will look to increase the number of bets. I'm most looking forward to p/l and roi at betfair sp when I get that data added at end of season.

Would be interested to know what lessons you guys are going to take away from this season?

4-55 punch Golden Spear 0.5pt b/fair sp

6-40 punch

Invitation Only 0.5pt

Monbeg Notorius 0.5pt  both b/fair sp

Well, well ,well.......what goes around.....always comes around.

Having had half a pop at this crew during cheltenham,for their scant regard for grade 1 racing,they sink to a new level at arguably the most prestigious meeting in the Irish calendar.

Able to get away with it in the Gold Cup no less,a few years back,they made the cardinal error of not letting the owner know,namely the man behind gigginstown.....a theory laughed at by some.

Low and behold shortly after ALL the giggi horses are removed from this stable,citing training fees .

The man was no fool.......he saw what they were up to with his horses.

Townsend is a jockey I respect,fine horseman,he could walk into 90% stables as number 1.

Did he hear a shout........No

Was he there to win.........No

Did the BD of Invitation Only affect his ride.........Imo Yes

He stops riding 100yds before the final fence,looking for an out,there was not one,the only way he can achieve the goal is to veer off course,regardless.

Are we really to believe they do not doll off fences at a grade 1 track,if there was a problem ?

He will get the blame,but he is not the ringmaster.

Leopardstown tried,failed miserably.

The stewards report today sums it up,closed ranks.

Rancid outfit,plunging the sport to new depths,untouchable it would seem.

Another former punter of Irish racing bowing out, until this lot are taken to task.

Punchestown

1540
Man of Plenty 1pt ew 14's 6p's (PPower)
Fine Theatre 0.7pts ew 28's (PPower)
Lyreen Lad 0.5pts win 10's (Various)

1655
Delta Work 3pts win 9's

1730
Sizing Granite 1.5pts ew 25's 4pl's (Sky)
Edwulf 0.7pts win 12's (Various)

1840
Champagne West 1.5pts ew 25's 5pls (PPower)
Woodlands Opera 1.5pts win 9's (Various)
Devils Bride 0.5 pts ew 40's 5pls (Various)

Come on noc, do you seriously think that debacle was deliberate by Mullins.

You just have to accept that people make a complete b@lls-up sometimes. Most of us
have our SNAFUs subjected to less publicity, and thank  goodness for that.

Cvbryne

Read your recent post with Interest - as it mirrors a lot of aspects I adopt.

I only bet in Handicaps
Exclusively Class 1 or 2
Mainly at Grade 1 Courses.
I bet level stakes (win only)
Stake is Bank dependant

Separate Racing Bank essential
Able to accommodate a long losing run is essential.
Look at past records over years for longest losing run ( and then double / treble it ) to ascertain size of Bank.
Losing runs are a part of the game and will happen.
As long as you have a systematic  approach to your selection process( honed and adjusted over years) and a bank sufficiently large enough to more than comfortably accommodate the losing runs, then they need not be a concern.

Record keeping of all bets along with all relevant key indicators is essential.
As is the constant review of these records, especially in periods of long losing runs.
This is necessary to a) give  confidence that your betting strategy is a sound one, and b) highlight any patterns of key indicators that relate to a losing bet.
Over the years, I have taken ' common denominators ' of losing bets from the past and excluded these from future selection process. It is likely that some winners may be excluded by doing this,but if a greater long term profit is attained,
then it's a sound principle.

Keeping a long term target as the objective, is key.Anything  else ( like losing runs), can only be a distraction. but with proven historic records,should  be confidently ignored.

Punchestown
1540 Jack Dillinger 0.7pts win 33's (Lads)
1540 Jack Dillinger 0.7pts ew 25's 5pls's (PPower)
1615 Mr Fiftyone 1pt ew 33's 5pls (Lads)

Some interesting reading, will post some thoughts towards end of the week.

Punch 7.10
Causey Arch 0.5pt ew @ 16 (B3.6.5)

Punchestown

1620
The West's Awake 25's
Conrad Hastings 33's
Both 0.7pts ew 5pl PPower

1655
Slowmotion 1pt win 6's (Lads)

1840
Top Wood 2pt win 7's (Lads)

1910
Ridersonthestorm 0.7pts win 8's (Various)

1910
Causey Arch 1pt ew 16's (Various)

1945
Lone Wolf 1pt win 6's (Various)

Punch 5.00
Fletchers Flyer 1pt win @ 16/1 (WH)

Sand 1.50
Enola Gray 1pt ew @ 401/1 (Koral, 5plcs)

1640 Sandown - 0.7pts ew Midnight Shot 14's (Various)

1350 Sandown - Taxmeifyoucan 0.5pts ew 16's 6pls (Sky)
1510 Punchestown - Sutton Manor 1.5pts ew 14's 4pls (PPower)
1700 Punchestown - Woods Well 0.7pts ew 50's (B365)
1735 Punchestown - Uradel 1pt ew 20's 6pls (PPower)

Finally some betting races. Little to pick from during Punchy this week and then a glut to end the season.

Sandown

Ar Mad 0.75pt 17/2 lad w/o Altior

Sandown

Mont Des Avaloirs 0.75pt 15/2 bt
Minella Daddy 0.75pt 11/1 gen
Stowaway Magic 0.5pt 11/1 b365

Punchestown

Heron Heights 0.5pt 28/1 b365
Space Cadet 0.5pt 14/1 b365
Forever Gold 0.5pt 8/1 b365
Karalee 0.5pt 12/1 b365

+100.35

g spear -0.5
I only -0.5
mon not -0.5

+98.85

Season End

Very well done nocturnal.

Sand 3.35
Minella Daddy 1pt win (B3.6.5)

Well done Noc

1510 Punchestown - Kylecrue 0.7pts ew 25's 4pls (Various)

Been a brutal week, but one last bet for the season

1735 Punchestown 6 Places PPower
Joey Sasa 3pts win (Hills)
Swamp Fox 0.5pts ew 40’s
Voix Du Reve 0.5 pts ew 28’s

+36.25 / 0 IP

Dandridge -1
Foxtail Hill -1
Doing Fine -1
the Road Home -1
Causet Arch -1
Fletchers Flyer -1
Enola Gray -2
Minella daddy -1

Antipost
Label Des Obeaux  -1

+26.25 / 0 IP

Bit of a p!sh end to the season. Been a tough one for me, more fallers and seconds than I care to remember, but the festivals were good, so hey ho.

Some fantastic totals on here this season, loads of winners at a price, well done everyone, and top bombing fab - amazing total.

Enjoy the flat......

+123.28

Modus    -0.5
Clan Des Obeaux    -0.5
Nube Negra    -0.75
Bentelimar    5
Mystifiable    -0.75
Snow Falcon    -0.75
Minds Eye    -0.5
Grand National    -3
No Hassle Hoff    -0.75
Sharjah    -0.5
Bunk Off Early    -0.75
Invitation Only    -0.5
Dounikos    -0.5
Ordinary World    -0.5
Ar Mad    -0.75
Mont Des Avaloirs    -0.75
Minella Daddy    -0.75
Stoaway Magic    -0.5
Heron Heights    14
Space Cadet    -0.5
Forever Gold    -0.5
Karalee    -0.5

Final Season p/l = +127.78
Total Season Staked 163.75
Total Season roi 78%

And so, to all, I sign off.

Early shouts for next two bets. Tigris River for back to back Galway Hurdles and Dounikos for the Galway Plate.

Two things before I go.

Fab, what an incredible season yet again. Relentless profits. Unassailable for the second season running.

Noc, I'm certain if we went through this thread to check, your roi is better than mine. Shrewdie.

The spirit of the thread too, Sint, GI, Facts, Pete, enjoy the summer.

I'll post again shortly with some facts and figs. Lessons and all that, debrief.

Great stuff cvb. Excellent tipping.

WD Mac, and CVB, enjoyed it again, though have to agree Mac, certainly a p1sh end to the season for me. I usually go into Punchestown confident of some success, but it was almost a whitewash, and harsh lesson learned. Can't bring myself to list them all for this week

Weeks Losers -49.3

Man Of Plenty +1.75
Mr Fiftyone +8.25
Lone Wolf +6
Kylecrue +3.5

Final Total

+277.92

Pleasure guys, thanks to all who contributed with selections and thoughts.

Excellent profit Fab. Well done, great achievement.

Many thanks Facts, appreciate that.

Thanks Facts and Fab. It was a very enjoyable season.

Think my final P&L is about +31, will tally up after Guineas weekend.

Well done all. Nice to see lots of folk in profit. Very unusual to get more than 5.

Apr 28, 2018 -- 2:43PM, cvbyrne. wrote:

+123.28Modus    -0.5Clan Des Obeaux    -0.5Nube Negra    -0.75Bentelimar    5Mystifiable    -0.75Snow Falcon    -0.75Minds Eye    -0.5Grand National    -3No Hassle Hoff    -0.75Sharjah    -0.5Bunk Off Early    -0.75Invitation Only    -0.5Dounikos    -0.5Ordinary World    -0.5Ar Mad    -0.75Mont Des Avaloirs    -0.75Minella Daddy    -0.75Stoaway Magic    -0.5Heron Heights    14Space Cadet    -0.5Forever Gold    -0.5Karalee    -0.5Final Season p/l = +127.78Total Season Staked 163.75Total Season roi 78% And so, to all, I sign off. Early shouts for next two bets. Tigris River for back to back Galway Hurdles and Dounikos for the Galway Plate. Two things before I go. Fab, what an incredible season yet again. Relentless profits. Unassailable for the second season running. Noc, I'm certain if we went through this thread to check, your roi is better than mine. Shrewdie. The spirit of the thread too, Sint, GI, Facts, Pete, enjoy the summer.I'll post again shortly with some facts and figs. Lessons and all that, debrief.

fantastic tipping by all concerned, always interested to hear what lessons have been learned after the seasons over