King George VI (29th July)

I am not moaning I am just pointing out how damaging Coolmore is to the sport of my choice.

Now I am confused.

You just wrote 'I'm now actually beginning to think' followed by 'you really don't know why it exists'.   

Which of those two statements is true? I know the answer. I wonder if you do?

You don't know why it exists

I'm astounded Jack Hobbs (JH) is 2x the price of High Reel (HR) despite the ground presently is soft with more rain between now and including saturday. I believe HR had never won a Gp 1 race on soft going; HR was comprehensively beaten by JH at Meydan on similar ground.

Should Gosden not run Enable JH could be installed fav for the race, and rightly so given the uncertainty concerning the participation on Ulysses if the ground deteriorates further and the "effectiveness" of HR on it.

WEIGHT-FOR-AGE
Weight-for-Age (WFA) is a weight allowance to compensate a horse for lack of physical
maturity.
In practice, the WFA table describes a sliding scale of weight allowances that younger
horses receive from older ones, based on the principle that, on average, Flat horses
become fully mature at around the beginning of the turf season as 4 year olds, and that
young Jumpers are the equal of their older counterparts as hurdlers towards the end of
their 4 year old year and, as steeplechasers, approximately one year later.
Younger animals are considered to be more disadvantaged in races over longer
distances and the sliding scale reflects this. For example, a 3 year old is presumed to
be the equal of his elders over 5 furlongs by November. However, a 3 year old running
over a mile on the same day would receive an allowance. Similar distance-based
factors are included in the Jump scale.
The WFA scale is designed to reflect the physical development of the average horse.
When a Flat horse is described as having ‘failed to train on’ from two to three, it may be
the case that the horse was precocious and had less than average scope for physical
development at the end of its 2yo season. It will therefore have regressed relative to its
peers. Conversely other horses may improve by more than the scale suggests.
In handicap races with different age groups, the Handicapper deducts the WFA
allowance from the weight carried by any horse that receives it.
Each racing nation sets it own WFA scale. The international protocol is that
Handicappers normally use the scale in operation in the country where the race was run.
14
This is not necessarily the case with regards to Irish Jump races because their scale is
significantly out of line with Britain’s. The policy in all cases is set by the Head of
Handicapping.
As the breed develops, it is possible that the WFA scale may require further adjustment
from time-to-time.
The Jumping WFA scale has been amended twice in the last 12 years and the
Handicappers are satisfied that it is currently working well.

So therefore you understand that there are two fundamental principles behind the reason for developing the scale, with one factor outweighing the other. It's the same question. Do you agree with the theory?

Figgis I have no idea how the Magic Body Control on the new car works but what I do know is it cost a small fortune. The brochure says it adjusts the suspension to cope with potholes. That's all I need to know, thanks.

I see now why you always hold an older horse's form down by what it achieved as a 3yo.

You need to get out more F. We are here for a good time not a long time. You really don't want to be on your death bed thinking about the wfa scale. Get a life mate.

Now I really have to pull this work together so that I can give it to the proof reader before I go away. Otherwise, he will be giving me grief when I get back. Will say goodbye tomorrow.

You really don't want to be on your death bed thinking about the wfa scale

And still he fails to grasp it

Get a life mate

This advice could be considered wise from someone out there living the dream. Never seems to carry much weight though coming from someone who are themselves spending their time squabbling on an internet forum

Going currently described as soft, good to soft in places on the round course. Rain forecast tomorrow so it depends on how much they get. Supposedly dry Thu and Fri with showers on Saturday but even if that's true I don't think it will make much difference if the ground has dried out by Friday. Depending on what happens tomorrow it's still possible we could have good ground Fri and Sat.

I cannot think of a bet I have had where the wfa cost me. So it does not bother me and I live with it. I may feel differently if Enable beats Jack Hobbs in a photo

Why would you feel differently? Everyone knows beforehand what weight a horse carries and should factor that into their betting.

It's been reported the connections of Highland Reel (HR) and Ulysses (U) are watching the weather closely as neither would want a deterioration of the present soft ground condition - the forecast is unsettled. Will Enable be declared? If so, would she run if the ground deteriorates further? The (possible) absence of HR and U may persuade connections she runs, I'd hope.

It is a possibility that 1/2 the present field could defect come race day if Ascot gets more rain.

A lot will likely hinge on how much rain hits the track tomorrow. Latest met office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcps2xe58#?date=2017-07-26

Do you agree with the Duckworth Lewis system?

Benbatl 20/1 each way

It's been a long night, but worthwhile. A_T it was a light hearted comment. When your horse gets beaten any excuse is a good excuse. If Jack Hobbs gets beaten I will blame Figgis. If he hadn't spent all this time saying what a great chance it had I wouldn't have backed it.

Enable and Jack Hobbs both run on Saturday. Bring it on!

Enable was on Wednesday given the green light to run in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday but John Gosden, trainer of the dual Oaks winner, says his perceived second string Jack Hobbs should not be underestimated.

I don't think Highland Reel, Ulysses or Idaho will even run due to the likely ground.

It is still an interesting race as I can see it now being a very small field. I hope it's soft ground and I hope they front run on Jack Hobbs to make full use of his stride and staying ability - that would make it a real race against the most likely winner Enable. Otherwise it will just turn into a procession for her, which it might do any way. But if Jack Hobbs front runs on soft ground then I think it could get interesting. That isn't based on speed figures, data or any jazz like that, just the good fashioned eye test - I think Jack Hobbs could be seen at his best front running with some cut in the ground.

Most annoying that betfair do not have an antepost place market as I want to back Algometer in this regard.

I think Enable will like soft ground so it's hard to see her being beaten with the wfa.
Jack Hobbs e/w @ 5/1 right now with 3 places is a bet to nothing if the other market leaders drop out (though I expect Idaho will run whatever the weather- they have nothing to lose) but I was also thinking of a place or e/w bet on My Dream Boat @ 50/1.

I like My Dream Boat Uncle, I hope they run him. (Famous last words) He did beat Found last season so on best form you never know. I have been waiting for them to drop him in class a touch. He was favourite to beat Ulysses first time out this season and was given a no chance ride. He will like the ground and could surprise a few.

It's been raining at Ascot for at least a couple of hours and expected to continue for another 30 mins.

I don't think My Dream Boat will stay the trip. His last two races had comments of "no extra" and "drifted left" over a mile and a half so that doesn't fill me with confidence plus his breeding isn't exactly crying out for the trip. That said, it is obviously factored into his price as he won the Prince of Wales on soft ground so the carrot is dangling in front of punters.

Enable is already 11/8

Uncle I just had a few quid on MDB at 40s with billies and blow me down their rep has just come on ATR saying there has been a late market move for My Dream Boat cut in from 40s to 20s. Call themselves bookies?

Weather forecasters changing their predictions like some people change their selection for a race. Now predicting rain Thu and Fri and a sunny Saturday. Doesn't look good but as they've changed their predictions every single day anything is possible.

'Doesn't look good?' It looks great.

I meant it doesn't look good from a racing fan's point of view. Which is something you've regularly claimed to be before a punter

I think the MDB gamble is just about the gorund and 'shrewdies' trying to steal a place edge - there may well be less than 8 runners. I personally can't have him beating Enable, or an on form Jack Hobbs, so even at 40/1 right now it's only really 7/2 the place.

I cannot see him winning Unc but he is already down to 20s on here and if one or two of the top ones don't run he will likely be shorter if you see what I mean Uncle?

How is it good for a racing fan's point of view watching the horses you like getting beaten because the ground is like a road? Are you saying Enable and company do not have racing fans? Or do you think races should be won by the same horses all of the time?

How is it good for a racing fan's point of view watching the horses you like getting beaten because the ground is like a road?

Where does this "ground is like a road" tripe come from? How often have you seen the ground like concrete at a major flat racing meeting in the current era, when the ground is far more watered than those great racing days of the seventies you talk about? Anyone who starts comparing proper good to firm ground with being like a road is an idiot and it's those types who have led to the tendency to over water. Most racing fans want to see flat racing run on at least good or good to firm ground. Good to firm ground is what is expected in most summer flat racing. Enable has already won on it, like most top class flat horses should be able to, so it wouldn't be a problem for her. What soft ground will probably lead to is a depleted field and a much worse quality one, which is fine if it suits your punting, no problem with that, but don't pretend it's the view of a racing fan.

Oh you mean like last year when the ground was too fast or the year before when the ground was too soft. Well this year the ground should be no worse than good and I would have thought that would be a more level playing field than the last two years where we had a 13/8f and the year before with a 1/2 favourite. 

How can that possibly be bad for racing fans Figgis?

Now that Enable is a confirmed runner its not surprising she's been supported today, now around 11/8 and that could look a good price on Saturday afternoon with doubts surrounding several of her main rivals. I certainly wouldn't want to lay her, even at odds on and that could quite easily occur.

Hi Lawrie, hope life is good with you

Oh you mean like last year when the ground was too fast

It was too fast at this meeting last year? Says who? Too fast for who exactly?

Hi Andrew, very good thanks. I'm off on holiday at 4 o.clock just to give young Figgis a break.

I thought Enable was a good bet a few weeks ago thinking Jack Hobbs would be her only danger. I never expected her to run in Ireland so when she did I put more on Jack Hobbs and got my Enable stake back in the Irish Oaks. Then, out of the blue, she was backed for this race and now I have two main bets. Cannot remember that ever happening before so I will enjoy it while it lasts. 

On the down side I am off to Florida and it's raining there as well but I'm sure it will be great.

How are your business travels going, Any new countries to add to the list?

Well this year the ground should be no worse than good

Before today the ground on the round course was described as soft, good to soft in places. There's rain today, and in my post, which is the post you quoted from, I stated it's forecast rain for Thu and Fri. So in the circumstances being referred to is highly unlikely that the going will be no worse than good.

It's not really raining Figgis, they are scattered showers and Ascot drains brilliantly. It will be too fast for soft ground horses and too slow for fast ground horses so a level playing field.

Well I hope you're right, brigust. Personally I want to see all the intended starters making the race. I would also like to see that happen on ground no worse than good so it's fair for everyone, both from a punting and racing fan view. Although admittedly I haven't played ante post and might well have a different view financially if I had. However, if it we do get a depleted field I think Enable can have an easier time of things so on the bright side it shouldn't damage her Arc chances too much.

Laurie, I got back from West Java on Monday, but that was pleasure (my daughter lives there). Toronto on August 7th, but business and only for a few days.

You have a couple of decent chances running for you on Saturday, albeit more so with Enable in my opinion. I didn't back her ante-post as JG appeared to be relying on Jack Hobbs, but she obviously didn't take much out of herself in Ireland. With the WFA and receiving 14lb, she must take all the beating, even if they all run. Have a great vacation, i've never been to Florida.

Thank's Andrew, I will. I think you are right about Enable. I hope I get to watch the race, one way or another. We are planning to travel more as my work load diminishes.We are currently planning a US tour with one of my two my sons and his wife. I have always wanted to see The Alamo, New Orleans and Gracelands but we have a project in France to complete before that. Take care.

I haven't touched Enable for the Arc Figgis so I will have to regroup when I get back. I will also miss Goodwood but I haven't any firm predictions about the Sussex Stakes so I will not be missing too much. The one race I will be looking out for the Maurice De Geest. That looks like being a good race and I have unfinished business with Caravaggio and Limato. I will wait to see what runs and what the ground is like before I make any decisions.

Anyway, I'm signing off now so try not to miss me too much Figgis, happy and lucky punting everyone.

I will be amazed if Highland Reels turns up. With Paddy contantly pushing him out, I think they know he aint turning up and Aiden will use the softish conditions as his reasoning

Enable is extremely short at 5/4. Is she as good as Taghrooda? Is she as good on good to soft ground as good/good to firm?

The wfa is a massive advantage for Enable; her last run was only two weeks ago; this race is an afterthought; this race is also the most competitive she's been in.

All things being equal, is she the most likely winner on form?

The WFA isn't a "massive advantage" for Enable. It allows her to compete on fair terms. She would be at a "massive disadvantage" if she didn't get it. I'm sick of reading such rubbish. Tom Segal is at it in today's Weekender on the subject of the Goodwood Cup: "Big Orange is a high-class horse, but he's certainly not the fastest ever trained and for him to give 13lb to a smart, improving three-year-old would be a huge ask." No, it wouldn't - it would be a fair ask: fair to Big Orange and fair to the 3yo.

Brigust can you please put up your tip for the King George so I can lay the crap out of it.

I think the late gatecrashing by Enable has created a lot of value for the rest of the other runners - for once with help from the bookies - if one is not backer.

Totally p*ssed off with antepost. Backed Highland Reel short, now 5/1 and probably wont even turn up it seems! Same with Almanzor etc etc etc. Bunch of Turds!

10 declared:
Enable
Highland Reel
Jack Hobbs
Ullysses
Idaho
Benbatl
Desert Encounter
Sixties Song
Maverick Wave
My Dream Boat

Given that they didn't go that quick in the Listed race the final time points to the round course being no softer than the slow side of good. That's at least from a mile out anyway, could be softer further out I suppose.

Markedly slower for the 12f handicap so does indeed seem to be softer further out and more like good to soft ground. No rail movements so that doesn't explain the difference.

More rian tonight and tomorrow so definitely going to be softish.

Can still see HR and Ulysses being non runners.

O'Brien sounded convincing that HR would run whatever the ground. I'm not sure the ground was to blame when he was beaten on it as there were other possible excuses and he handled it well enough in the Hardwicke last year. Even if connections have doubts I can see why they intend to run as he's going for back to back wins and a defeat here wouldn't take away from what he's achieved. I'll be more surprised if Ulysses runs on soft. Even though again I'm not absolutely sure it would hinder him Stoute seemed to have convinced himself that was the excuse on debut. Now that the horse has finally produced what they thought he was capable of you'd think they'd want to give him every chance to keep that winning form going, and there are alternative options later.

I honestly cannot see why Enable will be beaten... As in an group 1 race, you've got to look at form and can someone please tell me what exactlyJack Hobbs to be so short? Wait till HR is declared a non jigger then lump on... Hopefully godsend will give the Yorkshire oaks a miss and goVermeilles and arc...this could be the next treve

Highland Reel in excellent form and 11/2 is an insult, ideal ground or not. To say Jack Hobbs ran an absolute stinker last time is a whopping understatement, lay. Enable short enough. Come on HR!

Enable beat little in the Irish Oaks; in the Epsom Oaks Rhododendron clearly did not stay 12f despite cruising 2f out; she's also too short considering last race was just two weeks ago.

Jack Hobbs (JH) disposed off Highland Reel (HR) and Seventh Heaven (conqueror of Found the winner of last year's Arc in the Yorkshire Oaks) at Meydan after a downpour (Postponed was 3rd) in emphatic fashion; JH finished 3rd behind Almanzor and Found in the Irish Champion (10f) 1st race back from an injury, and that was Gp 1 form. Tomorrow with trip and ground to suit I'm expecting a big run from JH.

Would have been HR for me but for the ground.

Little e/w on Benbatl just to give me an interest in the race.

I've checked two weather forecasts and both only show 2-3mm between now and the race.

AOB does tend to run his once they have traveled and although Highland Reel's form is n't as good on ground officially described as worse than good he's run plenty of times on it. Tend to agree with Figgis - he's likely off to stud at the end of the year and they have nothing to lose.

I hope Ulysses runs - his pedigree suggests a test of stamina should be right up his street - I know there's a a school of thought that he's such a strong traveler that he could even drop to a mile but I can't dismiss him as a 12f horse yet, to me he just looks like a very talented animal who has taken time to channel his ability successfully.

I think Enable will win but I'm not so keen on the price now (2/1 is probably wishful thinking) so I'll back Ulysses each way.

Benbatl 20s ap top up @ 25s

Idaho for me to handle the ground better than his brother,has a much different action.Had a saver each way on Benbatl at 20/1,was never put in the race in the Derby,nursed down the hill then stayed on up the rising ground.May well be better with ease in ground.

Both are just a little short on class but the going could be the leveller.

Forecast to rain from 2pm onwards. Jack Hobbs the only horse with the potential to beat Enable imho.

Backed Enable win and Desert Encounter each way four places.

Good renewal this one. Can't think of a top class 12f horse that's fit and not in this.

I too am on Enable (Win) and Desert Encounter (EW)

Who is paying 4 places Feltfair? - no one per oddschecker

Betfair

For me there are three genuine Gp1 horses in the field, that's Enable, Ulysses and Highland Reel. After the Oaks when I said Enable would have a strong chance in the KG or even the Arc I was expecting to be getting a price more like the 7/2 that Taghrooda went off when she won. I think her current price still offers some value but obviously not as much as was hoped for. I have her 3lbs ahead of the two older runners mentioned, which is enough for a length and a half victory on my scale so she's capable of a decisive win. On the other hand horses can't be expect to always run exactly to the pound. Most of us think she'll be fine on softer ground but we don't know for sure. She could run really well on it while running a couple of pounds below her Oaks form. We could get a slow pace to confuse things, she could have trouble in running or have to take a wider than ideal trip. Any of those things could lessen her advantage. Therefore at the current prices I'm still backing her to win but having stake savers on Highland Reel and Ulysses. If either of those two underperform I think she can win easily as I have her 5+ lengths ahead of the likes of Jack Hobbs. If Jack Hobbs proves me wrong so be it. I was happy with the decision to oppose him at the time.

*can't be expected

Even allowing that Nyaleti has probably showed improved form today the ground at the moment looks a good deal quicker than yesterday on the straight.

Ulysses to beat Enable

Two races in now and I'd call that good ground on the straight.

Sixties Song

Few ££ on the reverse forecast with the main 2 Jonny G pair, 6.6 on here.
Gd luck all.

have gone round in circles with this race and come down on a horse i didn't think i would in idaho, i still believe the hardwiche to be a poor renewal this year but he got very worked up that day and still won, i don't have him with much to find with the older horses running and am hoping the ground is a leveller and he can step forward again...i don't know why but although i believe the filly to take a world of beating there is questions to answer in regards ground although she is bred to devour it but also a ran just 2 weeks ago so at the price not for me today...

i couldn't have jack hobbs so will have to watch him win on ground he will like...

ulysees has always been a keen type so agree with others that i would sooner see him come down in trip and highland reel isn't the same horse on this type of ground

money for benbatl and he adds spice to the race but i have never rated him that highly and be interesting to see whether he can step forward up in trip not for me but see the angle

very wd winners jeez she is good, we tried to find some value and we got the place but what a good filly she is so no qualms here

sick i haven't got the 6/1 for the arc i might shed a tear

enable murdered the opposition, nice ride from frankie, always makes sure gets a nice position in the race

Awesome filly, awesome performance and not totally unexpected. Well done Enable and backers

top class performance especially as she pulled a little early on

What a filly! I hope Gosden puts her away for the Arc and not runs her in the Yorkshire Oaks - she deserves a long holiday after this. A penalty kick for the Arc given a reasonable draw, I'd think.

That's your arc winner. As good as she is, think gosden going for the Yorkshire oaks could be a big mistake, 3rd group 1 in 5 weeks is a big ask.

after consideration I think they will miss York - unless they want to try her in the International

SHE WILL NOT GET A GOOD DRAW IN THE ARC! Unfortunately.

I think Gosden calls it the 'rosbif' draw

She did that very well, the heavy going exagerated the distance - she clearly relished it - as for the Arc, atm she's a worthy favourite as we still don't know what state Almanzor will be in when he turns up, but she needs every inch of 1m4 to be at her best,

Will have to do the sectionals from KG but I think a peak Almanzor would do her for toe in the easy 1m4 at Chantilly.

jedi sophie   
29 Jul 17 21:53 
SHE WILL NOT GET A GOOD DRAW IN THE ARC! Unfortunately.

The draw at Chantilly is not as significant as Longchamp, and a poor draw didn't stop Zarkava and Golden Horn winning. Enable is usually ridden up with the pace anyway and even with a negative draw Frankie will take the same GH route. It's her race to lose and a filly/mare has won 5 of the last 9 Arcs.

Will Almanzor even run ?

Will have to do the sectionals from KG but I think a peak Almanzor would do her for toe in the easy 1m4 at Chantilly.

yesterday's sectionals will be no help in determining if Almanzor might beat her in the Arc.

The rain got into the ground really quickly yesterday even on the straight course. The first three races on the straight were run in good ground times but the next two on the straight had slowed down by around a third of a sec per furlong making it good to soft or borderline soft as described. Even though it was expected that the round course would ride slower I was surprised just how sloppy it looked between the start and Swinley Bottom and the times confirm it was proper soft ground out there and even bordering heavy by the time of the last race. I thought Ulysses ran well under those circumstances and can do better again on a quicker surface. Highland Reel might've got away with it on good to soft but never really looked to be going that well on ground as soft as this. He's also had a couple of hard races this year and might be past his best for the season. Jack Hobbs looked to me like he did last time, a horse that needs to be retired.

If Almanzor does an Air Force Blue or Minding the price of Enable in the Arc could tumble again especially if Brametot does not acquaint himself well in the Irish Champion Stakes. Also, Brametot has not a run over 12f thus not a guarantee stayer over the Arc distance either, unless the Japanese horses are to be reckoned with given local jocks onboard this year.

yeah I agree with pretty much all of that, Ulysses did run well given the conditions and you were proven right on all accounts regarding those horses, was good forecast up for grabs in that race, you did really like Ulysses for the race before enable was
confirmed. vintage race for me.

Bramelot is due to run in the Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville next (August 15th) whilst stablemate Almanzor is a probable for the Gontaut-Biron on the same day.

Roadrunner, yes before Enable was announced a runner my original plan was to have a good bet on Ulysses at a much better price than I got for Enable, so I still had a bit of a moan to myself after yesterday's result

If Almanzor does not win his debut race this season he could do an Air Force Blue, I reckon. But Brametot needs to win to cement his position in the Arc betting market.

I reckon running JH on very fast ground at R.Ascot very likely hurt him. He did previously suffer a stress fracture of his pelvis after all.

Very possibly, the PoW was run on near concrete ground and shorter trip. I'd not be surprised if JH is retired post KG if sustaining another injury or recurrence of the old one.

I was very disappointed to hear Gosden reiterated on several occasions on TV the PoW had always been JH's race in spite of Gosden nominating the Hardwicke and KG as his targets post Meydan victory.

Roadrunner, yes before Enable was announced a runner my original plan was to have a good bet on Ulysses at a much better price than I got for Enable, so I still had a bit of a moan to myself after yesterday's result

You could have backed him without the fav, at around 6/1 it was a good E/W bet.

Jack, didn't expect the price to be as big as that but I didn't even think to look . Sometimes I think the second best horse doesn't always finish second if it gets into a battle with either a much faster horse or, as in this case, one carrying much less weight so it's not a bet I always consider but I think I probably would've played it at that price. Must remind myself to check the other markets in future.

Thought Ukysses ran a blinder considering the conditions. Would not be at all surprised to s him aimed at the tuft race at del mar...course may not suit but the definite fast ground and his cruising speed will.

Nice win by Enable and I suppose I must thank JG for running her in the Irish Oaks because that was reason she was such good prices for this race before she was a definite runner.
Jack Hobbs looked a real danger turning in but then dropped right out. I haven't heard anything yet but the way the race was run looked weird. They ignored the pacemaker on the rails and it looked like Moore set a steady pace on Highland Reel with Enable pulling Frankie all over the place then it turned into a sprint up the home straight. None of the also-rans look to have a hope in the Arc if the filly runs. I have seen the race a couple of times today but apart from the winner, the rest is pointless.

At last an update for Jack Hobbs from Gosden. Gosden: "Jack Hobbs is in good form and he'll go for the Champion Stakes. He ran brilliantly in Dubai then the ground was too firm at Ascot. He just had a little problem with his hock after the King George in that he had a tiny stress fracture at the top of the cannon bone. He has been off since the King George but hopefully we will get him back for the Champion Stakes." 

Finally, a tiny stress fracture has been disclosed? No wonder he has taken a wild walk in the betting for the Arc as if he has lost a leg. Now no chance of running there, and another one of last season's targets ie Arc, missed again.

There had to be something wrong. It possibly occurred at Ascot but either never showed up or went unnoticed. It cannot be serious if they are thinking of returning so soon.

I was expecting an update from Gosden post the dismal run of jack Hobbs in the King George - he stopped 2f out after seemingly going well just a couple of furlongs prior as if he'd been shot; he even finished behind his pacesetter!

Would it not be an irony if he goes and wins the Dubai Sheema Classic again? A punt could be rewarding, I think.