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impossible123
25 Jun 17 16:59
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 4,228 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
The main protagonists are Wings Of Eagles and Cracksman (Epsom Derby winner and 3rd respectively) - both at 5/2 - and the French equivalent runner-up Waldgeist at 4/1.

The English Derby form had been upheld at Ascot this week by the wins of Permian and Benbatl.
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Report kincsem June 30, 2017 5:22 AM BST
http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

Weather Reports:  week 22/06/2017 to 28/06/2017

Station______________________Temp_____Rain (mm)_ %____Sun (hrs)__ %
Casement____________________14.2_____26.0__(189%)______27.9__(77%)
Dublin Airport________________14.0_____28.1__(193%)______21.7__(55%)

Casement Air Base is about 35 kms east of The Curragh
% = percent of normal
Report brigust1 June 30, 2017 9:17 AM BST
Today 30th June

Going report.

Curragh Racecourse.

Following a dry day yesterday and one ml overnight ,

the straight course is now yielding good to yielding in places.

The round course is good , good to yielding in places.

Forecast showers over the coming days .



It looks set fair for a good race. I hope there are no excuses.
Report brigust1 June 30, 2017 11:59 AM BST
If Smullen gives him the same ride he gave Harzand last year that should be good enough.
Report FELTFAIR July 1, 2017 12:30 PM BST
Backed Wings of Eagles.
Report harry callaghan July 1, 2017 2:06 PM BST
the english derby for me was a very moderate affair and in all honesty was a decent group 2 and was on paper before the race and after the race did nothing to change my mind

imo the big problem with the race was we dealt with a strong pace with mediocre horses running at the pace and these mediocre horses were unable to sustain this pace, this caused the melt down in the last furlong with the deep closer benefiting from this... because of the class of horse running, they were enable to sustain this pace...in all fairness to cracksman he was at least up on this pace and maybe you could argue the lack of a prep run just did for him and in all fairness to him i was never convinced he liked the track...he has his chance here and is a tempting bet at the price i'd have him a tad shorter, he is still yet to convince me he is a mile and a half horse however but today will tell me more, one thing i don't buy is ground and think he will love a bit of cut in the ground

wings of eagles got the tender treatment at chester and it payed dividends in the race, he got a meltdown pace in which to run at and picked the pieces up really just outstaying his rivals...imo if he hadn't been blocked in his run he would of been a comfortable winner but i am with others that are not convinced he will back it up here, however o'brien is running the battalion so expect another slog with these horses running today on different ground to the fast ground derby, if you've missed the wedding do you wish to go to the funeral at 5/2...imo he is the likeliest winner but just can't pull the trigger at the price

i have struggled with waldgeist and just never been convinced he is that good but he will love the step up in trip and maybe in a weak year he could win a derby of this nature, some have argued with me that he is a good thing here but i think he is a rancid price...he has his chance but isn't for me

i see the money for capri but he hasn't convinced me he has improved, we will see with him

i can't wager it's horrible but imo the derby winner maybe to good for them
Report A_T July 1, 2017 2:18 PM BST
I expect WoE to confirm the Derby form
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 2:23 PM BST
What a ride this horse has given me since last October. No complaints, it has been great fun and is still going.

How this race is run will obviously be important as will the AOB plans. I think Taj Mahal and The Anvil will make it a good pace from the start for Douglas McArthur to take over and keep the strong pace going for WoE to attack off. My problem is where and when Cracksman will challenge. He doesn't look quick so a sustained challenge when they enter the home staight should be enough for the late closers not to catch him.  If he challenges DM too far out and has a protracted duel then he could set it up for the closers as he weakens.
I've backed Cracksman a few times this week when his price was good and will lay off at pretty short because I think the real dangers are late closers so if he does as I wish without having too hard a fight to get past DM that should easily be good enough. But, as I said, if he struggles to see of DM he could be open to one of the late closers while still trading short in running. Good luck all.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 2:30 PM BST
Of course, while many will think it will be a strong pace I wouldn't put it past AOB to do something different. If The Anvil and Taj Mahal set a steady pace it wouldn't suit WoE or Waldgeist who I believe will be sat at the back but would suit Capri and Cracksman.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2017 2:43 PM BST
I think the sole purpose of AOB running five is to ensure the race is run at a competitive pace to suit WoE; a slow pace will probably play into the hands of Douglas Macarthur and Capri but unlikely the latter will appreciate the trip despite the ground will be to his liking.

If the three main protagonist are fighting out the finish my money would be on either WoE or Waldgeist as I believe the Epsom form will be upheld.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Let's just say I wouldn't put anything past this bunch as far as money is concerned. Capri and DM are by Galileo and WoE is by Pour Moi. Which would be the best breeding income result?
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 4:05 PM BST
If you think WoE will uphold the Epsom form Imp do you not think the 16s available for the KG is tempting? Wink
Report A_T July 1, 2017 4:18 PM BST
tempting way to lose money maybe Ballydoyle have older horses to aim at that race
Report Sandown July 1, 2017 4:21 PM BST
For me, the  Epsom Derby form (Permian and Benbatl both franked it) is better than the French Derby form and Waldgeist would be a bit flattered to get so close to the winner anyway. I think that he is doesn't have a turn of foot either although he will appreciate the 12f. The ground is no worse than good at the Curragh so Waldgeist wont have the edge that he might have on softer ground.

To my mind WOE is better than the bare figures because of how the race was run and he can project higher than rated. That makes him better than Cracksman imo so as I would be surprised if anything other than the front 3 will be a dnager, I am going with Moore's mount.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2017 4:37 PM BST
I guess if one fancies WoE to uphold the Derby form later today 16/1 is a risk worth taking however, AOB already has Highland Reel (previous winner and 6/4 fav) and Idaho in it. Also, I think the 3yr old colts this year might not be up for the task unless WoE wins by a wide margin to prove me wrong; if so, he could go for the Arc in the Autumn otherwise The Leger is a near certainty, I'd think.

Rhododendron is fav for the Nassau and Seventh Heaven is one of the betting principals in the Yorkshire Oaks so a return is envisaged, with possibly Minding to follow soon after; at least Seventh Heaven and/or Minding could go for the Arc they being fillies along with Highland Reel and Order Of St George.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 4:40 PM BST
If he wins today AT where will he run next? This will only be his 3rd run, he clearly needs 12f, what is there before the Arc? After all the current KG favourite, who won this last year, only beat the 5th horse home in last year's Derby. Not the strongest of form I suggest. And there are plenty of 10f races for him to run in.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 4:46 PM BST
*who won it last year
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:23 PM BST
What did I effing tell you. What the F was Smullen doing?
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:24 PM BST
Moral winner again ffs.
Report A_T July 1, 2017 5:27 PM BST
Cracksman's not really very keen on racing
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:28 PM BST
You can ignore nothing with this bunch of crooks. All those front runners and they never front ran.
Report Figgis July 1, 2017 5:29 PM BST
As suspected, WOE just happened to runner better than usual last time, bastard Cry
Report Figgis July 1, 2017 5:29 PM BST
*run
Report A_T July 1, 2017 5:30 PM BST
they've no idea which is their best colt over 12f - AOB said on Derby day they don't work them together
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:34 PM BST
I think you will find Capri was 16s at Epsom while WoE was 40s. It's just that they went too fast at Epsom. Capri was alongside Cracksman coming into the straight but didn't get home. Pace today, or lack of it, suited him admirably. Why on this earth Smullen sat where he did off no pace is something we will never know.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:36 PM BST

Jul 1, 2017 -- 8:30AM, brigust1 wrote:


Of course, while many will think it will be a strong pace I wouldn't put it past AOB to do something different. If The Anvil and Taj Mahal set a steady pace it wouldn't suit WoE or Waldgeist who I believe will be sat at the back but would suit Capri and Cracksman.


You can't say I didn't predict it!

Report Figgis July 1, 2017 5:40 PM BST
Don't think anyone could say it was a slow pace if they watch it again.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:42 PM BST
Not exactly a slow pace but not a fast on either. They let the worst horse in the race dictate it and go clear I think that says everything.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 5:48 PM BST
Did you see how wide Smullen came? Six horses wide that shows how steady they went ffs.
Report Figgis July 1, 2017 5:51 PM BST
The race was well run to my eyes. This is mediocre form again for a Gp1 with little between these moderate 3yo colts. You'd probably get a different result each time they race against one other.
Report Figgis July 1, 2017 5:51 PM BST
*one another
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 6:00 PM BST
I think the fact that The Anvil still led at the 2 furlong marker shows how steady the went. In the Epsom Derby he was 12th at the 2 furlong marker.
Report Figgis July 1, 2017 6:07 PM BST
That's because The Anvil went faster (too fast) earlier at Epsom. The rest let the two front runners go clear in the Derby and went at a more sensible pace. He set a decent pace again today but one that he was able to sustain for longer.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2017 6:10 PM BST
I agree it was not a searching pace, but the winner was sat just 3 lengths behind the pace setter. On the other hand WoE, Cracksman and Waldgeist - the worst was the last mentioned - was too far back to Capri and were a near spent force when upsides the winner - the damage had already been done, I believe.

No worries, the next gladiatorial venue will be The Leger in Sept and a different result will emerge, I firmly believe. The question is, will Capri and Cracksman be there? Personally, I'd doubt neither,...Capri was coming to the end of his tether, and Cracksman is no Leger horse, in my opinion.

The 3 yr old colts are a much of a muchness this year.
Report roadrunner46 July 1, 2017 6:17 PM BST
unlucky brigust1, what might have been, if frankie was riding cracksman today, I believe he would of been better positioned to attack
and could of won that race.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 6:38 PM BST
Thanks RR I don't feel unlucky, I never lost anything, I just feel cheated by this bunch of crooks. They knew what they had to do to beat their two rivals and they did it. One day, mark my words, these crooks will be called to question by the media (if they grow some b a lls). As punters we should be up in arms about their tactics before and during the races.
I thought PM would lead entering the home straight as he did last year but he was quickening at the same time as everything else in the race was quickening the writing was on the wall then.
Report Figgis July 1, 2017 6:48 PM BST
I rate this form even worse than Epsom, with Cracksman running well again but slightly below his Derby form.
Report Blackrock July 1, 2017 6:58 PM BST
I backed Wings but cut my bet down considerably once the ground
went soft side of good, or even dead in places. To my mind, Wings wants it fast. He has an electric turn of foot and is not just a stayer imo.

If the horse gets his ground later in the year i wouldnt desert him. Capri has form with a bit of cut, so not completely a surprise he won.
Report unclepuncle July 1, 2017 7:00 PM BST
Can't blame Coolmore for anything Brig - race seemed perfectly well run and very clean - no hard luck stories at all.

The big 3 were all too concerned with each other to worry about those at the front, and when it came to it none of them could quite quicken up enough to catch Capri who had the rail to help him.

Average bunch of middle distance three year olds this year - just hope they are much better at 10f next week at Sandown.Excited
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 7:41 PM BST
I disagree Uncle. COMPLETELY.
It is only because Coolmore has this strength in depth they are able to do this. Run their horses not to suit each horse but to suit the team. That is crooked imo. And I am sure this is not the last heard about it. They used team tactics in the 2000 Guineas, team tactics in the Derby, team tactics for Carravagio and now today. When Pitman ran a spoiler she is still trying to live it down. Legally it may be right but it is not in the spirit of horse racing.
Cracksman beat Capri by nearly 3 lengths in the Derby and they were level 3 out. How far was he behind Capri as they turned into the home straight this time? More than 3 lengths if I remember correctly.
If that is they way a race works out when the horses are trained by individual trainers then that is the way the cookie crumbles but everyone knows they are riding against a team.

As Richard Hughes said in the Post today: Ryan Moore will have everything in his favour today because he will what the other four stablemates are doing. It's hard enough working out races with the imformation we have without them being run to suit the team.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 7:43 PM BST
*he will know what the other stablemates are doing.
Report unclepuncle July 1, 2017 8:13 PM BST
Unless you can explain it to me I don't see how there was anything about the way the race was run that was unfairly stopping Cracksman from winning today? It was purely down to his his ability and the ride his jockey gave him - that has nothing to do with Coolmore imo.

If he were the best horse he should have won - it wasn't as though he was boxed in or unfairly harrassed by the Coolmore posse.

If he was the best horse (and it would seem there is a cigarette paper between any number of middle distance three years old this year) and didn't win then that is surely the fault of the jockey and/or trainer for their tactics, and I'm sure Frankie may have done things differently.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2017 8:14 PM BST
To say AOB is a very good trainer is an understatement however, I'm a bit perplexed by his recent comments about Capri after the Derrinstown and the Epsom Derby eg he did not seem to see out the trip at Derrinstown (10f) and he did not last home over 12f at Epsom; today after the Irish Derby he was saying the same about WoE eg he sprinted in the last 2f at Epsom after a scorching pace; he was a 10f horse, but the opposite about Capri eg he stayed 12f well, etc, etc.

I think Gosden would not be happy with the ride given by Smullen to Cracksman, probably Fabre too about Boudot to Waldgeist. And Moore rode WoE as if he was a superstar,...clearly he is not. I think Capri "stole" the race.

Little interest for Capri for The Leger here (7/1) despite he is as short as 3/1 with Laddies; WoE was matched at 49/1, will he go to The Leger now? Capri ran in both Derby despite AOB alluding to his possible lack of stamina for 12f.
Report brigust1 July 1, 2017 9:35 PM BST
The only way Capri could win was if there was a slow pace. He said himself before the Derby he thought 10f was his best distance and he showed that in the Derby. Had Douglas McArthur or Taj Mahal, both confirmed front runners, run their races that wouldn't have happened. Their instructions, from AOB etc, were to sit in off a steady pace. Similarly Moore who rode WoE, who usually sits last in his races, knew this so sat handy unlike anything he had done before.
The reason these jockeys rode this way was because they were instructed to. They were instructed to sit behind Capri whose jockey was instructed to sit in 2nd place behind a leader who was instructed to set a less than strong pace. AOB gives the orders and he knew with these orders he may have been compromising the chances of DM, TM and WoE but he was giving the Galieo colt, Capri, the best possible chance to win. He also knew that Waldgeist, with the ground drying, would want a strong pace and would be dropped in so the plan worked with him and he also knew it was unlikely Smullen would force the pace after what happened at Epsom but he had Douglas McArthur ready to make life difficult for him if he did. The likelihood was that Smullen would challenged at the home straight not knowing this would be the time the race was quickening and at its hottest. It would be a time when all of AOB's horses would be quickening as per his instuctions. Had Smullen taken the bull by the horns pressure from Douglas McArthur and Tah Mahal would not only have have made his life very difficult indeed but it would allow WoE to pick up the pieces.

It is hard enough working out how a race is going to be run without one trainer having available to him various options. I did say this was possible before the race, this is not after timing.

I wonder how long owners, trainers and jockeys, let alone punters, will be happy to sit back and see their success snatched from them in this way. Not long is my guess.

The run of Intelligence Cross at Royal Ascot, where for the first time in his 10 runs it reads, 'with leader', as a spoiler to Harry Angel was abvious and it was lucky he didn't run a spoiler against Big Orange they would have strung him up. But the season is not ver yet.
Report Try My Best July 2, 2017 12:21 AM BST
Talking out of your arse again
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 7:07 AM BST
TMB I refer you to my 5.36pm post. If you are happy to be cheated by this bunch of crooks then that's OK, isn't it? This is the sport of my choice and if you believe they ran every horse in the race on their respective merits and to achieve their best possible placing then I'm happy for you. I know when I am being conned and I don't have to like it, even if you do.

In the Epsom Derby every other trainer let you know what their horses were doing and who was riding at the beginning of the week, not this bunch they left it until the very last minute. They treat punters like rubbish. It may be legal but in my opinion it is not moral.
I have no complaints about how the Derby was run, unlike the 2000 Guineas. You can run a number of horses in a race morally.
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 10:09 AM BST
Is this race in Ireland today the first opportunity to see how good, or not, the 3 year old division is?
Report FELTFAIR July 2, 2017 10:49 AM BST
A voice in the wilderness.Move on Brig.
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 11:10 AM BST
I've already moved on Felt, till the next time. I'm sure I won't have long to wait. Laugh
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 11:24 AM BST
They only have 13 in the Eclipse. Wonder when we will know who is running and who rides them? Wink
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 11:52 AM BST
Close up, soon settled off strong pace in 6th, ridden over 2f out and no impression under pressure, weakened

RP race comments for Grandee yesterday.

A strong pace was always guaranteed and it was The Anvil who set the early gallop for the Coolmore team under Ana O'Brien.

the trainer’s daughter, setting a solid pace on The Anvil

Reports from the Sporting Life and Guardian

the pace was on up front and it was strong and he was in the eye of the storm all the time

AOB's post race comments.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2017 11:57 AM BST
Regards Eclipse, if Cliffs of Moher is a runner Moore will be on him 100%, all things being equal.
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 12:29 PM BST
If you believe that Figgis well good for you. It must be true. Laugh
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 12:31 PM BST
AOB knew that had he said it was a steady pace where that would lead. Those comments were copied by the lazy. incestuous racing media. In the eye of the storm? And some on here believe that. You could not make it up.
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 12:35 PM BST
Smullen said: “Cracksman never really travelled as well as I had hoped

Pat Smullen rode Cracksman for the first time and said: “He ran an excellent race but he got a little further back than we had planned.”

Sullen's post race comments, which tally with what most people could see with their own eyes. Smullen was having to niggle to go the pace at an early stage, he wasn't held up so far back by choice.
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 12:36 PM BST
*Smullen's
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 12:40 PM BST
Wings of Eagles retired.

Figgis Smullen got further back than he should have and was stuffed by the Coolmore tactics. Do you think for one tiny moment he is going to say he was going strongly all the way but decided to stay where he was and wait for the sprint finish. Do you really believe that?
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 12:44 PM BST
I believe what I could see with my own eyes, Cracksman wasn't travelling comfortably at the pace.
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 12:52 PM BST
"Pat [Smullen] gave us a very accurate report when he came in.”

Gosden apparently in agreement with the jockey's version of events.
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 12:56 PM BST
I have just watched it again and that is total rubbish. At the start the AOB horses mobbed out to secure their told positions and Smullen accepted that after sitting out wide because he could not get in. The facts are that he was at least 4 lengths behind Capri entering the home straight instead of pressing for the lead and lost out on the nod.
I cannot believe anyone would think that was a strongly run race where the pacemaker was ignored, was still in front 2 out and at the furlong pole 6 horses were spread wide across the track. Added to that the winner didn't stay at St Cloud, didn't stay in the Derrinstown and didn't stay in the Derby.

What do you really think Gosden is going to say? Goodness me.

You will have to believe what you believe but I really cannot believe you listen to AOB etc. I will leave it at that.
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 1:06 PM BST
What do you really think Gosden is going to say? Goodness me

I would expect him to at least say the early pace was too slow if he believed that to be the case, as he did after the Derby trial.
Report Sandown July 2, 2017 1:35 PM BST
WOE retired after fracturing a leg.


https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/derby-hero-wings-of-eagles-retired-afte...
Report harry callaghan July 2, 2017 2:29 PM BST
i tend to agree a tad here with brigust...

they went slowly for the first 2 furlongs here and it really payed to be prominent, we certainly did not get the meltdown pace we got in the english derby and if you were a closer you really were at a disadvantage

cracksman is a strange type he races on and off the bridle in most of his races and seems to lack tactical speed, he really is just a one paced type imo who seems to be tripless in my book, there will be other days for him but missing the education in the dante and now being asked to race in group 1's is proving tough for him, maybe he just isn't that good like most of the 3 year old middle distance horses

waldgiest is another who just seems to find the one paced, he was probably the one most inconvenienced by a race where it payed to be in a good position but i doubt he would of had the pace had he been ridden differently

this really was a well figured out race by ballydoyle again and they landed the gamble with capri this time, he was pushed up from the gate to get a prominent position behind a slow early tempo and really just did the others for a turn of foot after having a perfect trip, job done for him

would of liked to of seen what wings of eagles could of done behind a strong gallop but this time the race was run to compromise his chances as well as some others, sadly for him its all over
Report Figgis July 2, 2017 2:33 PM BST
Harry, there wasn't really a pace meltdown at Epsom. The two pacesetters slowed markedly as you'd expect but most of those behind ran close to an even pace.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-timing-debrief-investec-derby-festival-462017
Report harry callaghan July 2, 2017 2:41 PM BST
i suppose when i say a meltdown pace figgis like a posted earlier in the thread, i mean horses who were running faster than there capability allows, if you know what i mean
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 3:36 PM BST
You could be right Harry. I think I said earlier in the thread that Cracksman could be just one paced and JG has often said he is not a quick horse. That is why I hoped Smullen would have had him challenging for the lead turning for home as he did on Harzand, not around 4 lengths behind Capri, where the 3 furlong uphill straight would have played to his strengths. Had he done that he may have won by clear daylight. We don't know. What we do know is that he made all his ground on the uphill section as he appears to have done in his other races and this could be to do with his action. Perhaps the undulations down the back straight unbalanced him?
Anyway I hope JG runs him at Ascot when they race on the incline from Swinley bottom which I think is around a mile from home then it is a gradual rise to the line.
You can go broke making excuses for racehorses but luckily, if you like, I haven't managed to lose any money on him yet. It is still early days.
Report brigust1 July 2, 2017 5:10 PM BST
Perhaps the 3 year olds aren't that bad?
Report penzance July 2, 2017 7:35 PM BST
poor
Report Sandown July 3, 2017 10:19 AM BST
Does anyone have any doubts that without the injury WOE would have won?

Beaten just a neck and sh it must be at least on the balance of probabilities that the injury made a big difference, although of course we can't be sure when the injury actually occurred. Whatever, the horse had guts and I will rate him at least 3l better than Cracksman and Capri which of course still would put him no better than an average Derby winner at this point in time.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 11:46 AM BST
Me.
Sesamoid injuries can be wide ranging and may not even show up without x-ray. If the skin is broken then the injury is likely to be serious but, apparently, it's not a bone with a blood supply so the fracture will not necessarily result in lameness etc. It is a pity WoE won't race again.

As far as WoE is concerned and the Irish Derby he never changed his legs all the way up the home straight when asked the question and that is usually a sign that there is something wrong in the leg area. Added to that I suggest with the ride Capri was given, the tactics of the race and the betting support pointed to the winner who I think everyone in AOB's yard think is marginally the best horse. Also I think the ride Cracksman was given and the ground he made up on a track more suited to him than Epsom produced a result I thought it might. And actually, if anyone was inconvenienced by the tactics in the race it was Cracksman who was forced to challenge 6 wide around the home bend when the 5 O'Brien horses carried him out wide. Do I think WoE ran below form in those circumstances, no I don't.
Report Figgis July 3, 2017 1:14 PM BST
Maybe WOE would've won but as brigust says it doesn't always result in lameless. I'd add that such injuries don't necessarily impact greatly on performance affect if happening late in the race. For me it seems very unlikely that the injury had already occurred before WOE came with his run to try to win the race. More likely that it came after he challenged for the lead and began to tie up. What was noticeable to me was he never travelled with the same fluency that he did at Epsom and really had to work hard to challenge, which was probably what led to the injury. We can only guess but my guess is possibly he would've won but I really doubt he'd have won impressively and at best it would've been a hard fought marginal victory.
Report Figgis July 3, 2017 1:15 PM BST
*delete affect
Report Figgis July 3, 2017 1:47 PM BST
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-timing-debrief-irish-derby-weekend-372017

Brigust, somebody who agrees with you that the pace affected the result and that Cracksman should've won. It's interesting that the wind has been acknowledged as being a detrimental force early in the race but a positive one later on. I've often argued that wind force and changes in direction are hugely underrated in time analysis and while they've been recognised here I'd say the affect has been undervalued. The point we usually hear is that data overrides anything we think we've seen visually but I'd say sometimes the data can put you away if the causes haven't been interpreted correctly. My view is that while they didn't go flat out early on they didn't go too slow and the pace picked up early enough not to affect the result. Whether Cracksman would've won if not having to run so wide is another matter. Anyway, all about opinions and interesting to see if Cracksman can prove the point one way or the other next time.
Report Sandown July 3, 2017 1:49 PM BST
AOB

O’Brien said here that the fracture was so significant that it cast a fresh light on Wings Of Eagles’ performance on Saturday. “We’re very lucky that it didn’t come apart during the race,” the trainer said. “You’re always worried when they pull out in the morning [after a race] and when he pulled out, he was very sore. When he was x-rayed, his sesamoid was coming apart.

“It’s incredible that he ran the race that he did really. W


That's good enough for me to give WOE the benefit of the doubt.Not that it matters much.
Report Figgis July 3, 2017 2:05 PM BST
It would've been surprising in the extreme if AOB had said anything else and underplayed the affect of an injury on his horse's performance.

“It’s incredible that he ran the race that he did really"

It would've indeed been incredible if the injury had happened anywhere before very late in the race, unbelievable really.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 2:13 PM BST
Not Timeform and not AOB? Goodness me and it is only Monday.

I will read it Figgis but I so often disagree with what they say it will probably be through gritted teeth. Of course, like me, they cannot be wrong all of the time. I hope.

With regard to AOB it is not surprising he is still selling his horse, he just cannot help himself. First he said he was lame this morning, now he is sore. It may be that buyers prefer to read that a horse is sore rather than lame, who knows. One of my bones of contention is that I cannot believe a word he says so I will not be changing that position anytime soon.
Report Figgis July 3, 2017 2:48 PM BST
*underplayed the effect
Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 2:52 PM BST
Having read Timeform's piece, thank you Figgis, you need not have posted that. I would never have read it. The thing it confers to me is the rubbish AOB was talking. Including his observation that Capri needs at least 12f and WoE may be better over 10f. A salesman through and through.
Report roadrunner46 July 3, 2017 3:00 PM BST

Jul 1, 2017 -- 12:17PM, roadrunner46 wrote:


unlucky brigust1, what might have been, if frankie was riding cracksman today, I believe he would of been better positioned to attackand could of won that race.


timeform seem to agree with my view of the race, even using the same phrase, what might have beenShocked coolmoore's use of tactics
are certainly giving them a massive advantage in some of these top races, no chance of that changing any time soon.

Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 3:39 PM BST
I'm not sure about that RR. Owners, trainers, jockeys, breeders and punters are being stitched up. It has been mentioned a lot in the press this year something is going to give. It happened when Sheikh Mohammed was running his horses in all the weaker meetings. This will not go on.
Report impossible123 July 3, 2017 4:37 PM BST
To have one pacesetter in a Group race is acceptable but 3/4/5 is gamesmanship with an ultimate aim of loading the dice in their favour (hopefully). If Godolphin had used a pacesetter for Barney Roy in the 2000G Churchill would possibly not have things all his way, but that was a lack of judgement and vision by the Godolphin team. However, their subsequent use of Dutch Connection as a pacesetter for Ribchester in his last two races was commendable and punter friendly. But 3/4/5 in any race ought to be outlaw as it is so unsporting and unfair to others, horses, connections and punters alike, and has no place in this game.

I think Coolmore need to reconsider this engineered unfair advantage before the BHA step in to spare their blushes, I firmly believe.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2017 5:17 PM BST
Ballydoyle had eight runners in Authorized`s Derby, made not the slightest difference.
Report A_T July 3, 2017 5:28 PM BST
before the BHA step in to spare their blushes

there's almost no chance of that happening
Report roadrunner46 July 3, 2017 5:45 PM BST

Jul 3, 2017 -- 11:17AM, FELTFAIR wrote:


Ballydoyle had eight runners in Authorized`s Derby, made not the slightest difference.


your comparing apples with pears, they are pulling out all the stops these days to beat the competition. suppose one could argue with galileos dominance, that this would be a natural progression for a powerful operation like coolmoore to start rigging the races in their favour.

Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2017 5:53 PM BST
Ballydoyle had five runners in Harzands and it made no difference. Am I close to apples yet?
Report ReaseHeath July 3, 2017 6:01 PM BST
I'm not sure on what basis this can't go on/continue. Seem to recall massive controversy as long ago as the 2008 Irish Derby where AOB had 5 of the 11 runners and Stoute's Tartan Bearer was seen as the victim of team tactics by many analysts/experts.

It's also worth pointing out that of AOB's 6 representatives in this year's Epsom Derby, 4 finished in the first 7 places - Gosden ran 5 (albeit in different ownership) and 3 of them finished in the last 5 places.
Report impossible123 July 3, 2017 6:34 PM BST
In the 2000G one of Churchill's outriders deliberately moved to his right whilst weakening - Churchill was to his left - and impeded Barney Roy and Eminent in the process.

What happened in the Chester Vase last year concerning US Army Ranger and Port Douglas? Would the former have won if Heffernan had not be on Port Douglas the runner-up? Moore was on US Army Ranger.

Would Wings Of Eagles (WoE) have won this year's Derby at Epsom if Heffernan had been on him? Moore was on Cliffs Of Moher the runner-up. Personally, I have severe doubts WoE would have won.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 6:39 PM BST
Felt the important point is are they running as a team or on their individual merits. If, for example, a horses chance is compromised by the instructions the jockey has been given then it is not running on its merits. If a horse compromises its chance by tearing off alongside a known fast front runner then weakens rapidly because it has been given an injudicous ride then the question is was it there to spoil the front runners chances and therefore aid the success of a stable companion or was it running on its merits. I think Intelligence Cross was a spoiler at Royal Ascot so the question must be asked of the jockey 'what were your orders'. I know jockeys are not always honest so it is not beyond the wit of man to ask AOB to declare beforehand what the instructions to his jockeys are. You can fool some people some of the time but not all people all of the time.
I have no problem with pace setters working to ensure a sound pace to test another horse's stamina but if, for example, they pull off the rails because they know their stable companion is right behind them then make sure the horse they want to beat is forced to go around them I think that would be team tactics.

I guess you have to ask yourself whether these horses would run this way had they all been trained by different trainers? Would they have taken their positions in the Irish Derby as they did? Filling the first five places. Would they have fanned 5 horses wide entering the straight and split to let WoE go through when he did?

Leading racing writer Kevin Blake outlines why Capri benefitted from a Ballydoyle tactical masterclass in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.


Tactical masterclass from Ballydoyle in Irish Derby

In the aftermath of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket there was much talk about the apparent tactical masterclass that the runners from Ballydoyle had executed to maximise Churchill’s chance. Personally, I didn’t buy into that line of analysis, as it would have been next to impossible for them to have planned anything like what transpired due to the draws that their runners came from. They simply made the best of the race as it panned out in front of them.

However, what transpired in the Irish Derby last Saturday appeals as being a different matter altogether. What the Ballydoyle runners achieved in maximising the chances of their runners whilst reducing the chances of their main rivals really was as good an example of highly-effective and within-the-rules tactics that one will ever see at the highest level of horse racing. Yet, very few people seem to be talking about it.

As with any tactics, the draw will play a major role in what can and can’t be realistically achieved, and in this case it couldn’t have been any kinder to Ballydoyle. Their two main hopes Wings Of Eagles and CAPRI were drawn in stalls three and one respectively, whilst their three stable mates who have all made the running at some point in the past were drawn in two, five and six. Their main opposition, Cracksman and Waldgeist, were drawn in seven and eight respectively.

The best plans involve tend to involve an element of surprise to bring about a favoured conclusion and that may well have played a role in this race. With the leading Ballydoyle hope Wings Of Eagles having thrived in a strongly-run race in the Derby and with him having no less than three potential pacemakers in the Irish Derby, it would have been perfectly reasonable for the connections of Waldgeist and Cracksman to assume that the Irish Derby would be run at a similarly strong pace. As it turned out, the Ballydoyle runners used this assumption as a potent weapon against their rivals.

While the fast-starting Grandee briefly threatened to upset the plan, the Ballydoyle runners were soon able to get into formation at the frontend. It was The Anvil that made the running, with Capri and Wings Of Eagles taking up ground-saving positions on the rail in Indian file behind the leader, with their stable mates Douglas Macarthur and Taj Mahal providing those two with cover on their outside shoulders.

While Pierre-Charles Boudot had immediately taken Waldgeist back to the rear of the field, presumably in anticipation of a strong pace, one can sense that Pat Smullen was less keen to commit. Smullen is as tactically astute as any rider in Europe and has ridden in enough Irish Classics to know to expect the unexpected when it comes to riding against Ballydoyle.

Having started on terms, it was noticeable that he delayed committing to a position for as long as he reasonably could, staying towards the outside of the field to give himself the option of pushing forward or taking back based on how the race unfolded in the opening furlong. With the field about to start to steadily turn right-handed, Smullen had to make a decision or be stranded out wide on the turn, so having seen The Anvil and Douglas Macarthur push forward, he made what was a perfectly reasonable decision in that moment to take his mount back rather than push forward into what at that stage looked likely to be a strongly-run affair.

It was after all of the runners had committed to their positions that the next key stage of the race unfolded, with Ana O’Brien steadying the pace on The Anvil in front and the pursuing Ballydoyle runners keeping the intervals quite wide behind her. This may have given the visual illusion of a well-run race that had strung out the runners, but the sectional times revealed that the pace was on the steady side.

As Mick Kinane mentioned in his excellent ATR course guide, the Derby track at the Curragh is deceptive in that the field are almost constantly on the turn from after two furlongs until they enter the straight. Thus, for a jockey to try and make ground up on the outside in the middle part of the race in response to a steadier-than-anticipated pace would mean sacrificing ground and cover to those closer to the rail that could well outweigh any positional advantage gained from taking closer order.


The final piece in the tactical jigsaw came as the runners turned for home, with Capri enjoying a dream tow into the clear towards the inside as Douglas Macarthur and Taj Mahal edged to their left whilst leaving a gap for Wings Of Eagles to make his challenge. This left the Ballydoyle runners stacked five wide with two-and-a-half furlongs to race, obliging both Cracksman and Waldgeist to swing even wider in search of open ground to launch their challenges.

From there, it was a case of who could make the best of their position and what ensued was a tremendously-exciting finish, with Capri holding off the late challenges of Cracksman and Wings Of Eagles by a neck and a short-head.

For Capri, this represented redemption for a run in the Derby that was better than it appeared on paper. As well as not being ridden in a way that maximised his stamina, Capri had ended up racing widest of all and made his bid earlier than ideal, with him not seeming to enjoy the track either. All told, a 3¾-length defeat wasn’t a bad run in the circumstances and a jockey of Seamie Heffernan’s experience and tactical awareness didn’t need a second invitation to right that wrong at the Curragh.

While Capri certainly improved for the more orthodox track and a much more positive ride, there is also little escaping that he benefited from the best position as the race panned out. The race couldn’t have gone any better for him and he only just held on from his pursuers. That said, he certainly has the potential to stay further and the St Leger seems the right target for him.

Of the beaten runners, there is little doubt that Cracksman is likely to have won this race on another day in slightly different circumstances. The way the race was run left him with a big task on his plate upon entering the straight and he only failed by a neck to overcome it.

This is what I mean.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2017 7:30 PM BST
At no time to my knowledge have the stewards or other jockeys made any complaints regarding the running of Ballydoyle horses.I am neither a fan of Ballydoyle or an adversary I merely believe that good horses win races despite tactics or jockeys. At the present time Ballydoyle have more than their fair share of the good horses and I`m not sure they know which one is the best from one race to another unless of course they have a standout such as Camelot,Minding etc but even then they often have multiple entries.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 10:51 PM BST
If you are happy Felt that is really all that matters. I am not happy about it and I have been banging on about this lot for years. The list is absolutely endless.
This is a report from 2008.

Aidan O'Brien last night left the British Horseracing Authority's London HQ with a terse "no comment" after being hit with a £5,000 fine for breaking the 'team tactics' rules when Duke Of Marmalade won last month's Juddmonte International at Newmarket.

Duke Of Marmalade's jockey Johnny Murtagh, an 11th-hour addition to the charge sheet, and Colm O'Donoghue, rider of pacemaking 66-1 outsider Red Rock Canyon in the 10-furlong Group 1, were each given a seven-day ban.
"I had no doubt that everything was fair on the day," seethed the master of Ballydoyle, who was acquitted of a similar charge, brought after George Washington's victory in the 2006 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

"It has become second nature - almost paranoia - it comes out of my mouth without thinking, that no interference or trouble should be caused to anybody.

"One journalist led Johnny down the garden path, and a lot of other journalists jumped on the bandwagon," added O'Brien, dropping a heavy hint Murtagh would cease to give interviews with the press in future.

The problem the BHA has, as with the Top Cees case, is that they can be sued if they get it wrong. And Coolmore are very, very rich.
Report brigust1 July 3, 2017 10:52 PM BST
This case only won because a jockey broke ranks can you see that happening again?
Report brigust1 July 5, 2017 9:50 AM BST
The pressure is growing against the Coolmore gang and their 'team tactics'. Yippee.
Kevin Blake (Attheraces)and Lee Mottershead (Racing Post) on Monday, Julian Muscat (Racing Post) today, all raising concerns. Keep a look out for a letter in the Post anytime soon. Shame on them!
Report Try My Best July 5, 2017 9:12 PM BST
See you put up the brains trust of racing there. FFS give it a rest and admit that Cracksman is just an ordinary horse that people who know anything about racing have probably made a **** load out of laying all year.
Report brigust1 July 5, 2017 9:18 PM BST
It's 9.15 pm McDonald's shift must have just finished.
Report brigust1 July 5, 2017 9:35 PM BST
And any other fast food provider. Wink
Report impossible123 July 5, 2017 10:10 PM BST
How good or mediocre Cracksman is the jury is still out given he's not won any Group 1 race (yet) despite looking like the winner twice. He did not impress me in the Lingfield Trial nor the two Derbies subsequently despite the injury to WoE in the last race. Next year perhaps with another year on his back but I do not think it will be this.

The over-rans in the Epsom Derby have upheld the Derby form (it seems) but this is only confined to their own age group. Hopefully, post the Eclipse and/or the King George we'll know how they compare to their elders.
Report penzance July 5, 2017 10:14 PM BST
doubt if he impressed anyone
in the Lingfield trial,he
never ran in it.
Report impossible123 July 5, 2017 10:19 PM BST
Sorry, it was the other trial but I think you know what I meant!
Report kincsem July 6, 2017 12:23 AM BST
Cracksman hasn't won a Group1, or a Group 2, or a Group 3, or a Listed race yet.
Report Try My Best July 7, 2017 12:19 AM BST
Have at least proven myself on here Brig unlike you. Belittling people who work in Mcdonalds now and calling the most successful breeding and racing operation that there has ever been a bunch of crooks. You couldn't tip a wheelbarrow. Stick to tiddlywinks coz you know f all about racing.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 2, 2018 12:04 PM GMT
kincsem • July 6, 2017 12:23 AM BST
Cracksman hasn't won a Group1, or a Group 2, or a Group 3, or a Listed race yet.


Devil
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