Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
impossible123
25 Jun 17 17:59
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 20,374 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
The main protagonists are Wings Of Eagles and Cracksman (Epsom Derby winner and 3rd respectively) - both at 5/2 - and the French equivalent runner-up Waldgeist at 4/1.

The English Derby form had been upheld at Ascot this week by the wins of Permian and Benbatl.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 5  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 168
By:
brigust1
When: 25 Jun 17 21:15
Looks like AOB will be running 5 excluding CoM and Fabre will be running Waldgeist. Moore is expected to ride Wings of Eagles. If this is as good as Cracksman is then it is obvious will be tight between the three of them. Waldgeist form with Taj Mahal isn't outstanding but puts him in the mix if the going is on the soft side. However, I believe Cracksman is much better than this. Epsom was only his 3rd ever run and he missed the Dante which JG thought he would need plus he clearly never acted on the course as was always towards the front which WoE, Com, Eminent and Benbatl all showed wasn't the place to be.
I expect a strong pace and I expect Cracksman to take it up entering the straight and just galloping right away from this lot. A wide margin success ala St Jovite. Be lucky.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jun 17 15:55
I don't want to say the Derby horses are no good as it has been known for some runners to improve immediately after the Derby (although I'd argue not that many) but this year's Derby was a pretty mediocre renewal. It's been said that the races at Ascot this year upheld the form but for me all they did was underline how weak the level is with the 3yo colts. I think Wings of Eagles won the Derby on merit but looking at his overall profile I wouldn't be confident of him repeating that effort. Cracksman ran a decent enough race considering it was only his third start. It could be a stepping stone to further improvement but maybe that's as good as he is right now. I have Waldgeist on a similar mark to Cracksman and after only four runs wouldn't rule out a bit more progress from him. When the form is of a lower level than usual, as it is here, it is difficult to be confident about anything so this race is a difficult call. If forced, I'd want to keep it simple at the prices on offer so would stick with the better proven form of Wings of Eagles, but I'll be sitting this one out.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jun 17 19:21
I couldn't agree more about not knowing Figgis but I do think there are a few pointers to Cracksman.
There is no doubt JG wanted to get another run into him plus he certainly never handled the track at Epsom. His action certainly wasn't suited to the ground and track at Epsom. Those points alone could be enough to change the result. Then there is the fact that Cracksman was in the van throughout and was still running on strongly at the end.
And finally, I think the race will be run completely differently this time. Wings of Eagles ran through beaten or tiring horses making his win look possibly more impressive than it was. At the Curragh if he sits out the back he will not encounter the better horses weakening back into him in the same way they will be galloping forward so his task will certainly be a lot harder against quickening as opposed to tiring horses.

In his previous races, Wings of Eagles, when running against Coronet she sat out the back with him and he couldn't go with her when the pace quickened. Similarly, against Waldgeist the first three home sat off the pace with him behind and he couldn't go with them at the business end when they quickened. At Chester Venice Beach sat behind the leaders then went on and, in the end, he could only catch the Anvil.

I think it will be a completely different story at the Curragh trying to catch quickening horses even if Moore keeps him laid up. He may look good quickening past weakening horses but I cannot see that happening here. I think Cracksman will take it up some way out and keep quickening to the line. I will be surprised if any of these will be able to go with him let alone quicken past him.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 26 Jun 17 19:37
Cracksman had the best ride and ran the most efficient race of all the fancied horses in my view. Douglas Macarthur went off much quicker yet finished only 3 lengths behind him. I agree that he could find improvement because he is lightly raced and may be better suited to this track though.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Jun 17 20:08
My head says Cracksman but I'm still perturbed by his clawing action even though the Curragh will suit him better than Epsom. I believe there will be pace in the race with AOB fielding a few for strategic reasons; I'd like to see Moore sitting no more than 6/7 lengths off the pace or no more than two lengths behind either Cracksman/Waldgeist whichever maybe be infront of him. And I'd be extremely disappointed if Moore keeps Wings Of Eagles at the back given stamina is his forte.

I'm less appreciative of Waldgeist's 2nd to Brametot who came from a hopeless position to beat him; this extra 2f might not be to his liking either.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jun 17 20:14
He had the same action at Newmarket and Epsom Imp. Plus his high action may be better suited by some give. And Wings of Eagles both significant defeats were on yielding and then on soft ground.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jun 17 20:16
The weather forecast is for some rain this week.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jun 17 20:25
I wouldn't say they went seriously overfast early on in this year's Derby, maybe the two pacesetters did but not those in behind. Regarding Wings of Eagles, it's a question of whether his win can be put down to improvement that he's going to be able to replicate or was it just one of those days when he performed much better than usual. I watch other sports and sometimes I see a competitor reach a higher level than usual, with statistics that back up the improved form, there doesn't always have to be excuses for the opposition, but I have big doubts they'll be able to keep up to the same level next time and usually they don't. That's how I feel about WoE. He'd still only had 5 races going into the Derby so there's every chance he could have just blossomed last time, plus there were excuses for his run at Chester. However I still remain doubtful. As I said, there's always the chance Cracksman could improve but he did look to have quite a hard race that day so this race could come a bit soon. There have been many Derby runners who performed well below par next time after running to a new peak at Epsom. Tartan Bearer comes to mind amongst others. That said, if there's one runner in this field with the potential to leave previous form behind and put up something really good then it looks to be Cracksman so I hope he does it.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Jun 17 20:51
The ground at the Curragh is firm at the moment 'brigust'. I think Wings Of Eagles (WoE) is best over 12f or longer eg The Leger.

If Venice Beach runs - AOB spoke highly of him after his Chester Vase victory beating WoE - but was unsuited by the undulations at Epsom I'll have a saver on him, and have already backed him heavy for The Leger.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jun 17 21:19
Google Curragh racecourse weather, Imp. AOB said he was very worried about Venice Beach staying more than 10f and he may be right.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 26 Jun 17 21:40
He has already won the Chester Vase over 12 furlongs beating the derby winner and a maiden over the same distance by 5 lengths.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 26 Jun 17 21:41
I presume you mean 12 furlongs rather than 10?
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jun 17 22:34
You are right Jack it must have been Capri. He said in the Racing Post on Derby Day.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Jun 17 10:01
In the 10f Derrinstown Capri was ridden up with the pace but did not finish the race as expected and dropped back to finish 3rd -
he was held up by Heffernan in the Ballysax previously and finished well - hence the conclusion by AOB he might not stay 12f. However, he finished a credible 7l 6th in the Epsom Derby in spite of firm ground.

Venice Beach was rumoured as their principle runner in The Leger post his Chester Vase victory over Wings OF Eagles but was unsuited by Epsom (I believe); Yucatan could be in the mix if he returns on saturday too.

Similarly, another nemesis of mine ie Promise To Be True, the other being So Mi Dar - both cost a bomb in antepost bets - could be in the mix too in the Irish Oaks after being scratched from the Munster Oaks at Cork on 18th; she could surprise Enable otherwise the race is Enable to lose.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jun 17 12:07
Weather cloudy at the moment and rain for the rest of the week. Pat Smullen rides Cracksman. Knows the course well so should be no excuses.

As far as Enable is concerned I suggest (only suggest mind) that JG will wait until Cracksman runs on Saturday before confirming the Irish Oaks. If Cracksman wins well then his next target should be the King George but if he loses then I think Enable's next target will be the King George and not the Irish Oaks. I could easily be wrong but that would be my thinking.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Jun 17 13:41
Re: Enable/King George
I'm not sure. A hefty price to forego a near certainty in the Irish Oaks for a run in the King George even for a trainer/owner of Gosden/Abdullah respectively.

The Irish Oaks is at 17:25 at the Curragh and the July Cup is 16:35 at Mewmarket on the same day, but no prize for guessing where O'Brien/Moore will be, all being equal.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jun 17 14:12
It is not that they are giving up the Oaks it is just the proximity in time is concerned. He swerved the Irish Oaks with Taghrooda and won the King George easily. It has got to be foremost in his mind.
By:
Blackrock
When: 27 Jun 17 16:33
I think some of you may have underestimated WOE.

He ran very green at Chester, and Seamie was not hard at all on the horse. In the Derby, Wings actually had his run checked slightly 2 out and still quickened up well.

If Moore isn't way out of his ground at the weekend, i expect Wings to quicken up again and brush the opposition aside.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jun 17 16:50
Seems like AOB, Moore etc also underestimated WOE so we are in good company. After all that is what punting is all about. You make your choice and suffer the consequences or reap the rewards. We will all know more on Saturday.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Jun 17 17:16
Re: Enable/King George
In the King George (KG) will probably be Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs, WoE, Idaho (possibly), Frontiersman, Dartmouth, Permian plus a few others thus not an easy race to win. Also at the present moment I do not think the Oaks form is superior to the Derby and it could be counterproductive for connections of Enable to swerve the Irish Oaks and wait for the KG instead.

Should WoE win and/or confirm Epsom form with Cracksman a very slim chance he'd be KG bound prior to The Leger similarly Waldgeist.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Jun 17 17:25
I said I hope Cracksman wins well and that's true as a racing fan, but from a personal financial viewpoint it would be less galling if WOE follows up. I would've won a considerable sum on the Enable/COM double and it was frustrating enough to see an apparent Coolmore fifth string piss on my chips, it would be even more annoying to find it was a one off performance that he isn't able to repeat.
By:
Clerkmore
When: 27 Jun 17 21:59
impossible123 • June 26, 2017 8:08 PM BST


I'm less appreciative of Waldgeist's 2nd to Brametot who came from a hopeless position to beat him; this extra 2f might not be to his liking either.

You are obviously not an expert on breeding. Waldgeist is by Galileo out of a Monsun mare and will be very much suited to the step up in trip.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Jun 17 23:05
I think Waldgeist could be better over further than 12f. I actually fancy him in The Leger...another Toulon?
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jun 17 23:43
If Cracksman does not step up to the plate and if Wings of Eagles is flattered by the Derby then Waldgeist obviously has claims but, notwithstanding that, his form with Taj Mahal as a 2 year old and as a 3 year old tells me he won't be good enough.

I said I thought Cracksman could win the Derby by a wide margin on available form lines and I have no reason to go back on that. Had he had another run, handled the track and appreciated the going I still think he could/should have been a wide margin winner. Even the way the race was run and even given the way the winner finished I think, had he acted on the track he would have been too far clear, given perfect conditions, for Com and WoE to have got near him. He palpably never handled the track and the going yet he only just got beaten and when he hit the rising ground he was running past CoM.
With track and going conditions now in his favour I will be very surprised indeed if he doesn't win by clear daylight.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jun 17 00:41
I've watched the race a number of times and can't see much to say Cracksman didn't handle the track, certainly not as much to prove the difference between winning and finishing third. He wandered a little rounding Tattenham corner but so did a few others. He ran pretty even once in the straight whereas a few others were edging around. It's rare for any 3yo to run perfectly straight on that track, even impressive winners. Cracksman had run and won on the course before and didn't seem to have much problem with it then. Wasn't it Vincent O'Brien who once said that if they're fast enough they handle the track?
By:
Blackrock
When: 28 Jun 17 11:15
I'm an hour north of Dublin and it has rained continuously for quite a few hours now.

Not so good for Wings methinks.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Jun 17 14:02
I think the distance is more of an issue for WoE than the ground. Also he has improved with every run; he was unsuited by the twist and turn of Chester and Epsom yet finished 2nd and won there respectively.

Capri will get his ground if the rain persists; Waldgeist wouldn't mind it but not too sure about Cracksman though given Gosden's reluctance of run him in the Dante, I think.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jun 17 14:21
I, also, have watched the race several times and it is clear to me, as it was to the commentator, that Cracksman was being hustled along coming down the hill and was almost continually off the bridle from that point just to hold his position. It was only when he hit the rising ground around the furlong marker that he started to run on. Very similar to the trial where he appeared to be making no ground on Permian then late on he picked up and was always the winner.
Added to this his high action was clear. Something generally unsuited to downhill sections.
The same thing happened in his first run at Newmarket where his high action was obvious and he was pushed along racing into the dip but then in the last 100 yards and the rising ground he went past the leader and pulled away quite easily.

The Curragh will be the first time to test whether or not the downhill sections are against him because we have no evidence. He may have just been outpaced and one paced. My belief from the evidence of the uphill closing stages in all of his three races is that he is able to use his stride to best effect and hopefully softer ground will be better suited to his knee action. Nothing is cast in stone but the evidence is clearly there if interpreted correctly.

He is now 100/30 on the Sportsbook so someone is forming an opinion or knows something. I have availed myself of that.

Imp, JG's reluctance to run Cracksman in the Dante was simply that he knew, or at least thought, the winner was likely to have a hard race so close to the Derby and he made the decision early. As it was I think the going wasn't as bad as he had expected and maybe he should have run. Who knows?
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jun 17 14:36
Can't fathom why the Derby winner would have an issue with the distance of the Irish Derby.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Jun 17 15:05
I cannot argue with what you've said about Cracksman but I am going to let him run even though he was one of my 4 in the Epsom Derby. I'll back WoE as I do not think he's been given the credit he deserves despite encountering a troubled passage to victory at Epsom. But my main fear is Waldgeist who is difficult to weigh up; Capri,...I do not think he'll stay but he'll most likely get his ground.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jun 17 15:55
You are a conundrum Imp. You are NOT going to back a horse you backed in the Derby, you thought would win it and may have had genuine excuses for not winning it and you ARE going to back a horse who you didn't back in the Derby because you didn't think he would win it, is now a 20th of his previous price.  Good luck anyway.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 28 Jun 17 18:06
It`s because he thinks Ryan Moore will make the difference.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Jun 17 19:16
Cracksman was one of my 4 but Eminent and CoM were my main hopes. I was impressed with WoE even though he spoilt my tricast; not to back Cracksman here is a gut feeling decision, nothing more. But if Waldgeist wins I think he'd be the fav for The Leger if he comes over - it's been a while since Toulon.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Jun 17 20:21
I wasn't going to have a bet as it is very trappy but I've also taken the 100/30 on Cracksman as it seems a little generous, maybe an over-reaction to Dettori's absence? I'm just hoping they get some rain and he improves for getting his toe in.
By:
Clerkmore
When: 28 Jun 17 21:12
There is absolutely no chance of Waldgeist running in the St Leger. He'll be Monsieur Fabre's Arc horse.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jun 17 23:18
I know JG took Cracksman out of the Dante because he thought a race on very soft ground at that time would be counter productive but has anyone heard him say he wouldn't like soft ground? His action suggests he will love it. And Barry Orr of Bf said it wouldn't suit him. Orr said: "There is plenty of rain forecast for the Kildare area over the next couple of days and, while that should suit Waldgeist, it will most certainly will not suit Cracksman, who missed an intended engagement in the Dante when the ground turned soft." Hasn't he got the wrong end of the stick?
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jun 17 23:31
Think that was the same bloke who said they were putting Shutter Speed in as second fav for the Oaks after the Musidora, when it was obvious to most people at that stage that Enable would be the yard's chosen runner. I agree that Gosden was just trying to avoid a possibly taxing race. Unless it's proper heavy ground, which is a completely different situation, going on the soft side shouldn't hinder Cracksman and I wouldn't have it as an excuse if he is defeated.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Jun 17 23:31
a hard race on soft ground given the proximity to the Derby was Gosden's concern at York rather than soft ground per se if I recall correctly. There were only 16 days between the Dante and the Derby this year - I think it would be 23 days more often than not.I'm no pedigree expert but he's out of a Pivotal mare so you'd think he'd be OK.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jun 17 23:34
I've found a Youtube interview where he suggests had the Dante been a week further back he would have run and he then goes on to say he wouldn't mind any ground 'good ground, good to soft, soft but he wouldn't want a road and he wouldn't want a bog'.
Page 1 of 5  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com