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barnesey
05 Jun 17 12:06
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Date Joined: 02 Feb 12
| Topic/replies: 144 | Blogger: barnesey's blog
Just had a look at this race to see if any value, and their looks to be no standout candidate and surely the value sits with HAWKBILL at 12/1 with lads??? Ran his last 2 races at 1 Mile 4 he looked like he didn't stay at Epsom against the very best and a drop back in trip surely beckons with this and the eclipse his obvious targets! 12/1 seems very fair any thoughts?
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Report craigie69 June 5, 2017 2:00 PM BST
no great price but would be on jack hobbs if he goes for it
Report impossible123 June 5, 2017 2:14 PM BST
Post Meydan success Gosden nominated the Hardwicke and King George IV as races for Jack Hobbs prior to the Arc - both races are over 12f. But Hawkbill, if going, could be the one along with So Mi Dar, if she runs.
Report craigie69 June 5, 2017 3:05 PM BST
i know they have to keep options open but was in coranation and thought would beat highland ( but he did win well ) and again think would win prince of wales, i suppose JG knows best not doing anymore antepost this year so will wait till nrmb
Report impossible123 June 5, 2017 6:05 PM BST
I think Gosden does not intend to over-run Jack Hobbs thus only the Hardwicke and King George IV races on the agenda for him. Also, I think his best distance is 12f, and with Seventh Heaven on the sideline there are quite a few juicy races at this distance for his taking provided he can show his running and beating of the aforementioned horses at Meydan was no fluke.

The competition at 10f is more intense with the likes of Ribchester, So Mi Dar and Minding (post setback). Also, Eminent and Cliffs Of Moher could be in the mix too.
Report unclepuncle June 6, 2017 8:29 AM BST
Does look a wide open heat and Hawkbill clearly likes a stiff right hand track and is Group 1 winner so a decent e/w bet at 12/1.

I still think Mutakaayef has a decent race in him but not sure what the plans are or if he is injured?
Report craigie69 June 6, 2017 9:30 AM BST
was told in jan he would win in meydan so dont think was any fluke, just wish we could see more of him but understand JG cautious approach given the injury he has come back from, cant wait for arc when he takes on the best
Report craigie69 June 6, 2017 9:30 AM BST
in his absence i too think hawkbill will run good race so even at 8/1 maybe e/w on him way to go
Report impossible123 June 6, 2017 6:39 PM BST
This year I think it is an easier race to win than the Eclipse. If Hawkbill gets his ground (softish) then he'll have an excellent chance even in the company of Highland Reel who beat him over 12f when looking the most likely winner 2f out in the Coronation Cup last week; So Mi Dar could be the fly-in-the-ointment if she runs here rather than the Duke Of Cambridge (8f).

Hawkbill at 13 here could be an astute bet if he runs (nrnb with Sky***).
Report impossible123 June 11, 2017 9:45 PM BST
So Mi Dar seems to have been backed over the weekend. This 10f seems to be her distance, but she is also entered for the Duke Of Cambridge (8f); she beat the boys in a Derby trial last season before an injury ruled her out of the Oaks; her trainer Gosden also has Jack Hobbs entered here and the Hardwicke 3 days later. Will he run both here? I doubt and hope not.
Report Boxman June 13, 2017 7:31 AM BST
So Mi Dar now out injured yet again

I had backed her for the Oaks last year and got burnt and was contemplating backing her for the PoW over the weekend but couldnt bring myself to knowing how fragile she appears to be and glad i didnt now

https://www.racingpost.com/news/royal-ascot/muscle-problem-rules-top-filly-so-mi-dar-out-of-meeting/289204
Report impossible123 June 13, 2017 12:22 PM BST
Indeed, very fragile. This is one horse I shall leave alone antepost. Hopefully can be back for a late summer or autumn campaign apparently, according to Gosden nevertheless, I'll believe her until I see her on a racecourse. Until then watching brief.

Someone with inside info played the market well, again!
Report woodmanchester June 16, 2017 5:38 AM BST
Think Jacks Hobbs will be going for the Prince of Wales but already had my fingers burnt antepost with him in the Coronation, so waiting for NRNB

Happy with my ticket for the Arc
Report impossible123 June 16, 2017 9:33 AM BST
This race is nrnb with Sky***.

I do not think this is the race for Jack Hobbs because the trip is too short for him to show his best, and on quicker ground he'd be found wanting over 10f - the ground could be slower on saturday in the Hardwicke (12f). However, this is the easier race to win, in my opinion, especially if Highland Reel does not show.

I'd be disappointed if Gosden runs him here instead of the Hardwicke especially after nominating the Hardwicke and the King George as prep races prior to the Arc in October.
Report craigie69 June 16, 2017 10:43 AM BST
hoping waits for hardwicke as have big bet waiting once declared for that and have done ulayss already for POW
Report impossible123 June 16, 2017 12:53 PM BST
I hope Jack Hobbs runs in the Hardwicke but have covered myself with Highland Reel (nrnb) here; I'll just let Jack Hobbs run here, if so.
Report impossible123 June 16, 2017 11:44 PM BST
Buick has been jocked-up for Jack Hobbs here despite Gosden's assertion the Hardwicke was the target post his Meydan victory. Could Highland Reel have scared off his connections on less favourable ground? Maybe Highland Reel willn run here too, and would that not be interesting?
Report brigust1 June 17, 2017 8:40 AM BST
I have made no secret of the fact that I believe both Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel may be better at 10f so I am delighted to see them at the head of the PoW market. Hopefully, it may also be a pointer to the plans JG has for his top three year olds, Enable and Cracksman, with regard to the King George.
Report impossible123 June 17, 2017 3:44 PM BST
It is looking much likelier now Highland Reel (HR) and/or Jack Hobbs (JH) will be here bound as even Stoute commented he did not know who his inmate Dartmouth would be running against in the Hardwicke - the market here is also reflecting that too. But I'm still not convinced Jack Hobbs's best trip is 10f thus will oppose him with Highland Reel if he runs here too.

Will Hawkbill (same ownership as JB) run here too? Surely unlikely in the Hardwicke as he did not seem to stay 12f last time against HR in the Coronation Cup despite going very well 2f out.
Report impossible123 June 18, 2017 6:13 PM BST
Latest from AOB on Highland Reel.
O'Brien: "We'll decide in the morning (monday) but it is very likely we'll declare Highland Reel for the Prince Of Wales's Stakes on wednesday."

So Coolmore will take on Jack Hobbs regardless. This race is Gp1 whereas the Hardwicke is Gp2.
Report Figgis June 18, 2017 9:02 PM BST
Looks a very tricky race to me. Jack Hobbs still needs to prove he's really trained on, as his 3yo form entitled him to beat Seventh Heaven like he did last time. Highland Reel sets the standard to beat but his Coronation Cup win looked a hard race and this is a quick return. He's a tough campaigner but at the age of 5 I wonder how much is left in the tank. Ulysses needs to improve but he won last time like there's more to come. He's the type of older improver Stoute has excelled with in the past, but past is becoming the operative word where top races are concerned for this yard. An interesting runner but not one I'd consider betting at the price. There are enough question marks against the front three in the betting that any result wouldn't surprise me so another race just to watch.
Report unclepuncle June 18, 2017 9:05 PM BST
There is nothing to be gained for Jack Hobbs or Highland Reel in winning the Hardwicke and the prize money is irrelevant to the respective owners.

As there is no standout 10f horse running it is a great opportunity to get a 10f Group 1 into their stallion book description, hence both are highly likely to run. A King George win will add very little to either horses stallion prospects.
Report johnnyrant June 19, 2017 11:08 AM BST
I wouldn't be running Jack Hobbs over 10f on ground as fast as it will be at R.Ascot this week, after his previous injury, & he's a better horse for me with cut & ideally over 12f. Queen's Trust looks the value ew to me - she loves fast ground.
Report johnnyrant June 19, 2017 11:09 AM BST
9 declared btw - Decorated Knight, Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs, Johannes Vermeer, Mekhtaal, Scottish, Ulysses, Nezwaah, Queen's Trust
Report impossible123 June 19, 2017 6:45 PM BST
Yep, so much for Gosden's nomination race for Jack Hobbs post Meydan's race. Anyway, this duel is good for racing, and at 10f 9/10 times Highland Reel over Jack Hobbs especially on good/fast ground.
Report brigust1 June 19, 2017 7:43 PM BST
Imp I suggest he hadn't known how Enable and Cracksman would have been at that time post Meydan and that is why I think they may have the KG in mind for them instead.
Report impossible123 June 19, 2017 10:43 PM BST
'brigust'...I do not envisage Cracksman is anywhere near Golden Horn's ability or class, and this year's Epsom Derby is a mediocre bunch no better than last year, I think, as the 1st 4 finished within 2 lengths of one another. As for Enable the jury is still out as to how good she is/might be given the predicament with Rhododendron - her victory the only claim to fame at the moment - at Chantilly yesterday given the poor show by Shutter Speed.

Sheikh Mo bought Jack Hobbs with an intention of running in the Arc last year but Gosden insisted only in 2017. I'm disappointed Gosden is running him here but I can understand why given this race is Gp1; I have little doubt Jack Hobbs is Sheikh Mo's number 1 for the Arc, and I'm hoping he'll run in the KG as a prelude.

This year's Ascot antepost has been an expensive venture for me given the no show of Minding here; Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Seventh Heaven in the Hardwicke. But I hope to make amends with Churchill, Caravaggio, Qemah and Order Of St George in their respective races this week.

Hope you have a good and profitable Ascot.
Report brigust1 June 20, 2017 11:32 AM BST
You may be right Imp, I have said often that this year's 3 year old colts look potentially an average bunch but don't forget both Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel were not Golden Horn's class when he was right. Added to that although they finished in a bit of a heap in the Derby in Sea the Stars Derby the first five finished under 3 lengths apart. Added to that Enable's Oaks looks potentially bitter than Taghrooda's who bolted up in the King George and may have won the Arc had she not run at York and had she not been so badly drawn in the Arc.

I fancy Qemah and Limato and Sheikhzzayedroad without the fav. I have already backed the two in the St James Palace thinking only one might run but hey ho.
Report brigust1 June 20, 2017 11:33 AM BST
*Prince of Wales Laugh
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 2:51 PM BST
I think Queens Trust is worth a shot here at the price. She will love the trip and the ground and if the stronger stayers go about it from a long way out there could be room for a strong finisher.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 4:19 PM BST
Will O'Brien open his account in this race? He has a few seconds, I believe.
Report johnnyrant June 21, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Why did Peslier give up the rail coming into the straight? It opened up perfectly & coming wide must have cost her a good couple of lengths.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 4:32 PM BST
Well done O'Brien!!

Mr Gosden, how could you have run Jack Hobbs over 10f, and on good to firm ground? A massive, massive error on your part but Buick did the right thing to allow Jack Hobbs to come home in his own time once he could not win. I hope Jack Hobbs is ok for this unnecessary exertion.
Report unclepuncle June 21, 2017 4:38 PM BST
I123 - the chance of a 10f Group 1 was too much to resist.
For me the race was over after a furlong with HR in poke position just behind the pace maket and JH ladt and wide - the draw, even in an 8 runner race can be critical at Ascot.
Report unclepuncle June 21, 2017 4:39 PM BST
'pole position'
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 4:51 PM BST
Imp I'm not sure the pacemaker did JH any good. I thought the idea would be to make every post a winning one but he went a nice pace then quickened turning the last 2f into a bit of a dash which didn't suit JH on this ground. QT ran well but is sadly a bit exposed I would have rather she dropped out.
Report Figgis June 21, 2017 4:57 PM BST
Jack Hobbs has surely gone backwards. I can't have the ground or trip as an excuse for such a poor run. On tv I heard how he was supposed to have been the best in the paddock and while I agree that physically he looked a fine specimen he looked a bit troubled by the whole experience to my eyes.
Report johnnyrant June 21, 2017 5:02 PM BST
There was so little pace in the race. Certainly won't have suited Jack Hobbs. It was a typical tactical affair round that bend - one reason I detest Ascot G1s over 10/12f. As uncle states, Moore rode the perfect tactical race, sitting just off the pace. No way anything was going to make up the ground off such a slow pace & agree with uncle, being drawn wide over 10f at Ascot is often a big disadvantage. This was one reason I backed Queen's Trust - hoped and expected Peslier to stick to the rail. Sadly he didn't.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 5:38 PM BST
Yes, Moore rode beautifully and cleverly tactically, but Jack Hobbs was taking on too much on this good to firm ground; Jack Hobbs does not have the pace to win a Gp 1 10f race especially with the globe-trotting Highland Reel present.

Very well done to O'Brien for taking Gosden on here.
Report Figgis June 21, 2017 5:56 PM BST
Not everyone might agree but it could be fair to say Jack Hobbs hasn't the pace to win a 10f Gp1. However, it's being wilfully selective to point to Highland Reel being present and ignoring the bigger picture. Jack Hobbs couldn't even beat Johannes Vermeer and I doubt anyone would say when on form he didn't have the pace to beat that horse. JH was weakening at the finish, no excuse.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 6:07 PM BST
I know this might be construed as aftertiming. I backed Highland Reel for the King George prior to this race, why?

I was so incensed by Mr Gosden's decision to run Jack Hobbs here because I'm beginning to treat his race nomination for his charges with a big pinch of salt lately for instance last season with So Mi Dar before the Epsom Derby eg unfortunate timing for her pulled-muscle but the Irish Oaks is on her agenda - missed that, and much more; Brigadier Gerard and then the Coronation Cup - a last minute news she was not well and would not be back until the autumn.

Commiseration to those on Laugh Aloud after her scintillating victory in a Gp 3 race. But thank goodness I was not convinced, and stuck with Qemah for the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes instead.
Report twonky June 21, 2017 9:27 PM BST
Personally thought Decorated Knight was given a poor ride around the outside the whole way, but fair play to him staying on...superb ride by Moore, always well placed and stamina kicked in, but he must be avoided if going for either the eclipse or KG.
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 9:29 PM BST
I think JH is better than this. He pulled hard during the race and was always in the wrong place considering how it was run. They quickened entering the home straight and that found him out and he certainly was not persevered with. If you stop the race at the furlong marker they are in two rows of four that show's how the race lacked strong early pace. As this was his first race since Meydan I think the 16s for the Eclipse is too big so with my money probably lost on Churchill I couldn't resist. And the ground will probably not be as lively.
Report twonky June 21, 2017 9:44 PM BST
Personally, I don't get this love in with Jack Hobbs..it seems to me that sheikh mo decided he'd run today and not Saturday, again for breeding purposes and still trying to replace Dubai Millenium..the horse was injured at half last year, so maybe he got away with the softer ground in Meydan and was given a superior ride compared to the others.

It's very likely that he's being over rated on a line through Golden Horn. Maybe, I'm blinkered, but with the odd exception, over the past few years, I've been disappointed with the classic generation...as far as I can see this year, only Enable stands upto scrutiny for the KG and Arc, especially with the weight allowance.
Report Figgis June 21, 2017 9:50 PM BST
In my view twonky the problem arises due to wfa. I believe Jack Hobbs was a good 3yo but he would need to improve in line with the wfa he received a couple of years ago to also be a good older horse. None of his runs as a 4yo or 5yo suggest he's progressed since he was a 3yo. With Postponed and Highland Reel not really turning up in Meydan he only needed to run to his 3yo level.
Report twonky June 21, 2017 10:07 PM BST
Figgis, I don't contribute much to the forum, but I read a lot..some I agree with, some I don't, though, I do know that the wfa debate is something that you harp on a lot about and on the whole, I'd generally agree with. Unfortunately, imo, we've not had a real superstar, except for Frankel, whom, imo, would have dossed up in the July up, to compare different generations to, but, of this years classic crop, atm withstanding Enable, only Churchill has the class to do something in all aged group 1s.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 10:42 PM BST
Of the poor show by Jack Hobbs who finished last.

Gosden: "Obviously, that trip on that ground is not his scene. A mile and a quarter here in the autumn on soft, no problem - but this just isn't his ground. He didn't let himself down on it. He came there with every chance in the straight."

I think most here could have told him that prior to the race. I'm still perplexed by the connections choice of race on this good to firm ground.
Report Figgis June 21, 2017 11:06 PM BST
The ground was fast when Jack Hobbs finished second in the Derby. Some will probably say that he doesn't act on it anymore since his injury but it was also good to firm when he finished third over 10f in last year's Champion Stakes which was a better performance than he put up today.
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 11:41 PM BST
It's not unusual for horses who have run on fast ground not to let themselves down on it next time or anytime in the future. The memory is there. And autumn good to firm isn't June good to firm. We are all guessing. He may have just not fancied it. That's the beauty of horse racing. Personally, I agree with JG about the going and about his ability at 10f so it will be interesting what his next move is.
Report lingbleed June 22, 2017 12:23 AM BST
I don't think people should forget that highland reel was passed out by both Ulysses and Decorated knight coming to the furlong pole, but Highland reel is just so tough and game, that he just went threw the pain barrier, i taught it was a brilliant performance from a horse that doesn't miss a gig, Yes he's no great, but he is very good, and i don't the other two can have any excuses.
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