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impossible123
30 Apr 17 19:44
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 8,604 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Churchill is about 7/4 for the 2000G and was the same for this when the market 1st opened. But now he is 7/2, why? The protagonists are virtually the same, and this is six weeks post 2000 Guineas.
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Report A_T April 30, 2017 9:15 PM BST
there's no sensible market for the SJPS at this stage of the season and it's not worth discussing the race
Report impossible123 May 1, 2017 12:18 PM BST
In the past this market had always been up-and-running prior to the running of the 2000G eg Gleneagles, Galileo Gold, Air Force Blue, The Gurkha, etc; there are presently five main bookies offering prices on virtually every protagonist in the 2000G market including Caravaggio.

Churchill was put in at 13/8 by most at the beginning but has been pushed out to 7/2 now; if he wins the 2000G (present fav at 13/8) 7/2 is value as his price for this race will shorten significantly as he is a near certainty to take part unless of course if Churchill takes in the Epsom Derby, and AOB relies on Caravaggio for this, assuming Caravaggio runs well or wins the French 2000G.
Report Figgis May 1, 2017 12:55 PM BST
if he wins the 2000G (present fav at 13/8) 7/2 is value as his price for this race will shorten significantly

And if he doesn't win it won't be value.
Report sintonian May 2, 2017 8:56 PM BST
You talk such an immense amount of sh1t Impossible it's not even worth picking your points about. So amateurish all the time. Just guesses and stating the obvious all the time. See Pavilon stakes thread.
Report sintonian May 2, 2017 9:05 PM BST
The fact only 5 bookies from 20 have the SJP market open tells you the market is hardly ''up and running''. Before the Guineas has been run there is very,very little money being bet on it so to say it is always up and running is just b0llocks. BF will have a market but fu ck all by way of comparison is bet on it at this stage.

Given Chruchill is by Galileo he is far from certain to run in the race either if he wins the Guineas. Yet another full on assumption.
Report sintonian May 2, 2017 9:07 PM BST
impossible123 30 Apr 17 20:44 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 27,397 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Churchill is about 7/4 for the 2000G and was the same for this when the market 1st opened. But now he is 7/2, why? The protagonists are virtually the same, and this is six weeks post 2000 Guineas.



Seriously? You actually need telling? Having you been watching any racing the last few weeks or just playing with sticklebricks?
Report unclepuncle May 3, 2017 7:16 AM BST
Harsh but fair.Laugh
Report impossible123 May 6, 2017 6:36 PM BST
Churchill is 6/4 with one bookie - most are 5/4 - but Paddies only going even money.
Report ffs May 8, 2017 3:05 PM BST
Watch out for Caravaggio This is an unbelievable horse, who in the absence of a Ballydoyle Derby contender (Prix Greffulhe hotpot Waldgeist just overturned, and nothing coming forward from Derrinstown - ok, they have a few more that might trial well) might well see Churchill step up - I'll await a glimmer of news, but this a really, really good horse who didn't get to show it at the end of last season.


As for Churchill - obv the Storm Cat influence isn't ideal, but he's so good relative to the opposition at this stage - as the master of understatement Ryan Moore said it best "He'd be the best ride in the race, I'm sure of that"
Report ffs May 8, 2017 3:08 PM BST
Impossible - means well - harsh but fair? not really - he did set up the thread so a bit unfair to berate him in it,

Happy Punting, Gents
Report impossible123 May 8, 2017 6:30 PM BST
Caravaggio is no longer in the betting market for the French 2000G this weekend - he must have been withdrawn. Orderofthegarter has been installed the new 7/2 fav; not surprised after the victory of Churchill, and AOB having no sprinting star at present.
Report Howellsy May 8, 2017 6:40 PM BST
ffs, What Moore actually said was 'I doubt I'll get a better ride in the race' which is not quite the same thing!
Report ffs May 9, 2017 12:15 AM BST

May 8, 2017 -- 12:40PM, Howellsy wrote:


ffs, What Moore actually said was 'I doubt I'll get a better ride in the race' which is not quite the same thing!


true, still the esteem they hold Caravaggio could see him slot in at 1m and let Churchill take up the Derby - though there are a lot of horses left to play yet, Chester, Lingfield + Dante all have huge entries,

to name but a few (and arguing the opposite of Church stepping up) look only at Mars, Ruler of the World, US Army Ranger, Idaho et al who were very lightly raced right now and placed if I'm not mistaken 5,1,2,3

Report ffs May 9, 2017 12:27 AM BST

May 8, 2017 -- 12:30PM, impossible123 wrote:


Caravaggio is no longer in the betting market for the French 2000G this weekend - he must have been withdrawn. Orderofthegarter has been installed the new 7/2 fav; not surprised after the victory of Churchill, and AOB having no sprinting star at present.


That's interesting - I checked France Gallop 15 mins ago and he was in, now the site is down for maintenance (I thought it said Forfeit was tomorrow morning) - but you could interpret it a few ways, maybe he goes straight to the Irish 2000 / he stays at less than 1m.

From my experience, with Ballydoyle being a Stallion-Production-Line, the value of 1m G1 to go with his undoubted speed would greatly enhance his value than if he never proved to be more than a Sprinter.

BUT - I could be convinced otherwise and would like to hear a view to that effect. IMO, they all go to Coolmore with Speed, but they also have Stamina - e.g they bought Pride of Dubai from AUS who was an outstanding 2yo over 6-7f, and wasn't seen to full effect at 3yo but being by Street Cry out of a Danehill mare he has Stamina.

Report Jb23 May 9, 2017 1:29 PM BST
Could Order of the Garter step up to the Derby trip after the French 2000G? I can't help but think AOB needs one of Sir John Lavery, Venice Beach, Exemplar & co to come out of the Chester Vase, Dante or Lingfield trial because Capri, Douglas MacArthur & Yucatan didn't personally inspire me as Derby winners. Churchill can then stay at a mile for the Irish 2000G & then St James Palace.

I have assumed (dangerously) since the Winter that Churchill follows a similar path as Gleneagles did (or should have) English Guineas, Irish Guineas, St James Palace, Sussex Stakes finishing up with the QE2.

Apologies if this is this the wrong thread- Couldnt decide whether to post in this or the Derby one!
Report ffs May 9, 2017 3:34 PM BST
Honestly, I'm not interfering as I'm not betting on the race and certainly not Antepost but I just lifted the forfeits from France Gallop, the official Horse racing authority.

1     MANKIB GB M.PS. 3 a.     58 kg     455         HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM     F. HEAD (S)     35.350
2     brametot ire m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     515         G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND/AL SHAQAB     JC. ROUGET (S)     126.400
3     LE BRIVIDO M.PS. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         PRCE FAISAL BIN KHALED     A. FABRE (S)     29.950
4     orderofthegarter ire m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR     AP. O'BRIEN     44.151
5     taj mahal ire m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR     AP. O'BRIEN     39.352
6     LESHLAA USA M.PS. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         GODOLPHIN     S. BIN SUROOR     6.245
7     salsabeel ire m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         GODOLPHIN     C. APPLEBY     18.284
8     INNS OF COURT IRE M.PS. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         GODOLPHIN SNC     A. FABRE (S)     26.500
9     whitecliffsofdover usa m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER     AP. O'BRIEN     89.353
10     THE GRAPE ESCAPE IRE M.PS. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         JOHN MANLEY     R. HANNON     8.009
11     caravaggio usa m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH     AP. O'BRIEN     302.418
12     peace envoy m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH     AP. O'BRIEN     162.133
13     south seas ire m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         QATAR RACING LIMITED     AM. BALDING     113.625
14     national defense (gb) m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     535         SUN BLOODSTOCK SARL     MME C. HEAD-MAAREK     240.490
15     rivet ire m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     ***         THE STARSHIP PARTNERSHIP     WJ. HAGGAS     301.865
16     african ride (gb) m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     470         WERTHEIMER & FRERE     C. LAFFON-PARIAS     58.750
17     spotify m.ps. 3 a.     58 kg     495         WERTHEIMER & FRERE     C. FERLAND (S)     33.000
Report ffs May 9, 2017 3:54 PM BST
Just to be aware - Fas is not in the forfeits - somebody w interest in this race should probably notify BF,

Check it out here also:

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/51137/aidan-obrien-keeps-caravaggio-in-hunt-for-french-2000-guineas
Report ffs May 9, 2017 4:07 PM BST

May 9, 2017 -- 7:29AM, Jb23 wrote:


Could Order of the Garter step up to the Derby trip after the French 2000G? I can't help but think AOB needs one of Sir John Lavery, Venice Beach, Exemplar & co to come out of the Chester Vase, Dante or Lingfield trial because Capri, Douglas MacArthur & Yucatan didn't personally inspire me as Derby winners. Churchill can then stay at a mile for the Irish 2000G & then St James Palace. I have assumed (dangerously) since the Winter that Churchill follows a similar path as Gleneagles did (or should have) English Guineas, Irish Guineas, St James Palace, Sussex Stakes finishing up with the QE2. Apologies if this is this the wrong thread- Couldnt decide whether to post in this or the Derby one!


Orderofthegarter could possibly step up, that's true - his breeding suggests he'd be more likely to get the trip - but I think there's a reasonable chance that if nothing comes out of the trials, and Caravaggio is v impressive in France (and I think he will be), then that horse could take up the 1m races and Churchill given a shot at the Derby,

I think you've got to ask - what price Churchill with a run, and how likely - I think the 5/1 is pretty short still, but not far from the correct mark.

I also think there's every chance Caravaggio will be the top 1miler this year, so while I think Churchill was value for more in the 2000 at Newmarket, I'm keeping powder dry on his future entries - Being by Scat Daddy (1m winner at 2yo), out of a Holy Bull (1m2f G1 winner) Mare, no reason to think Caravaggio won't get 1m and he was extremely impressive as a 2yo, but then they are all individuals, and Caravaggio has so much natural speed it's incredible so - we'll see on Sunday, I expect he'll race, and that will be v interesting.

Question also is whether they would race Churchill and Caravaggio against each other !? ...

Report impossible123 May 9, 2017 4:43 PM BST
I hope Caravaggio runs in the French 2000G this sunday despite not in the betting market since yesterday, but was 7/2 fav until then - backed him too. However, it's extremely unlikely he will take on Churchill in the future for commercial reasons; if the former wins in France Churchill would be more likely to take his chance in the Epsom Derby (possibly Irish too) given his racing style and temperament.

Interestingly in the interview with Lydia Hislop immediately after Churchill's victory in the 2000G AOB was upbeat and alluded to Churchill's participation in the Epsom Derby when asked as the horse's temperament and racing style meant he could be made to run in any distance. However, having had more time to reflect AOB was more guarded and said the "boys" would decide.

I think Caravaggio will/or be scratched on sunday unless all is not well with Orderofthegarter and/or his other probable runners; if so, he'd most likely to be kept to sprint races eg Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup.
Report ffs May 9, 2017 5:06 PM BST
Atm I think Caravaggio will run in France, OOTG run in the Irish 2000, Churchill will run in the Derby - it's heavily obviously odds against, but I like the odds. I also think Caravaggio will go on to St James etc...

The value of him winning a G1 over 1m is huge to his Sire potential, and he just strikes me intuitively as being something special. He has a ridiculous amount of natural speed and should stay 1m.

Yes, there are a few more bullets for AO'B to fire in the next Derby Trials, but none strike me as being good enough,

Ryan Moore + Tabor gave me confidence they were not opposed to taking Churchill up to the Derby trip.

A lot more will be revealed after Sunday, and the trials, but I just think Caravaggio is going to beast the 1m division. Churchill will then go for the Derby and 1m2 races.

As you said in another thread it's about opinions - I'm happy to take the chance it all goes wrong, but for a small stake I think it's a good plan.
Report impossible123 May 9, 2017 5:26 PM BST
I hope Caravaggio runs on sunday, but the market says no. I've backed Churchill for the Epsom Derby and the SJPS prior to his 2000G victory solely for value.

As this game is mainly about opinions, extracting and maximising value there is little alternative, I suppose.
Report ffs May 9, 2017 10:56 PM BST
Caravaggio IS in the race - BF have it wrong. Whether he actually runs is another question - I think he will, there is plenty of reasoning for it and many comments from AO'B


1) He said when Caravaggio was taken out of Newmarket that he wouldn't race Churchill but might look at Deauville or The Curragh
2) He said after the winners at the wkend that a decision on Caravagio racing in Deauville would be taken on Monday / Tuesday


He is in the race still, with likely dead wood Taj Mahal (needs further), Peace Envoy (non-stayer), the smart Whitecliffsofdover and Orderofthegarter

Easily though either one of the latter two can be taken out for the Irish 2000, Atm the race is on Sunday, they have the fav (Caravaggio) and imo they'll run him and probably one more definite 1miler (as you have to account for the fact he hasn't been past 6f even is he's likely to stay 1m)

As for the Commonwealth Cup - IMO, they have other horses: Smart ones too in Brave Anna, Peace Envoy and Intelligence Cross, all who want 6f at a max.


What they don't have, amazingly, is a smart Derby horse as whatever questions there are about Churchill there are even more about Cliffs of Moher who is a doubtful stayer and while he looked impressive the reliability of that form is low, but we'll see about him soon enough. (should go in the Dee Stakes)
Report ffs May 9, 2017 11:05 PM BST
Impossible - I don't understand why it hasn't been fixed on BF, and the only two Fixed Odds firms have different horses from each other - I just see him on the official race list, and it's in all today's news, so I'll go with that.
Report Jack Bauer '24' May 10, 2017 4:41 AM BST
There is more stamina in Cliffs of Moher's pedigree than Churchill's. The dams in Churchill's pedigree were all sprinters whereas the dams in COM's pedigree stayed at least 10 furlongs. The sires are also a greater influence for stamina, so purely on breeding alone and ignoring their ability and racing style, COM would have more chance of developing into a 12 furlong horse.
Report impossible123 May 10, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Anyone interested in The Dosage ie the mathematical figure to quantify a horse's ability to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run - the lower the better for longer distances; Cliff Of Moher (0.6); Churchill (0.76); Cracksman (1.00); Eminent (0.74); Rekindling (0.8); Yucatan (0.81) and Sir John Lavery (0.78).
Report unclepuncle May 10, 2017 3:17 PM BST
I123 - when has Aidan O'Brien not been super positive and optimistic about his horses - Galileo and the July Cup for example.

Everyone connected with Coolmore has to say the right thing so they can be used as quotes in breeding catalogue. Listen he's a lovely horse.Laugh

Don't get me wrong they are an amazing operation on and off the track and put Godolphin and the Maktoums to shame. Only Juddmonte seems able to produce high class horses on such a regular basis and they are gradually scaling down, and increasingly concentrating on the USA dirt side, as Prince Khalid gets older.
Report unclepuncle May 10, 2017 3:18 PM BST
^ This in relation to this bit:


impossible123 09 May 17 16:43

Interestingly in the interview with Lydia Hislop immediately after Churchill's victory in the 2000G AOB was upbeat and alluded to Churchill's participation in the Epsom Derby when asked as the horse's temperament and racing style meant he could be made to run in any distance.
Report ffs May 10, 2017 4:02 PM BST

May 9, 2017 -- 10:41PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


There is more stamina in Cliffs of Moher's pedigree than Churchill's. The dams in Churchill's pedigree were all sprinters whereas the dams in COM's pedigree stayed at least 10 furlongs. The sires are also a greater influence for stamina, so purely on breeding alone and ignoring their ability and racing style, COM would have more chance of developing into a 12 furlong horse.


I don't know about that - AO'B trained the Dam of CoM and he said she barely got 5f - and that the French Derby might be better for him.

Obv w Churchill it's an unknown (if he'll get the trip - but he'd prob have gotten 1m as a 2yo) - But at least you have an above-par 2000 winner vs a Maiden winner. As Tabor said, "if you know you have the stamina you probably don't have the speed", and a "we'll see, something might stick its head out tomorrow (derrinstown)"

Report Jack Bauer '24' May 10, 2017 4:54 PM BST
The dam had three runs as a two year old, she was beaten 3/4 of a length over 7 furlongs before winning over 5 furlongs at Dundalk on her third start. She then had one run as a three year old after an absence of a year before being retired.

She was bred to stay 10 furlongs, the second and third dams stayed at least that far. COM should stay 12 furlongs when racing in the right class, whether he is good enough to win a Derby is another matter entirely and only time will tell.

Churchill is obviously the better horse at this stage but in my view there are far more doubts about his ability to stay 12 furlongs at Epsom given their respective pedigrees.
Report Figgis May 10, 2017 5:16 PM BST
at least you have an above-par 2000 winner

That still remains to be proved.
Report ffs May 10, 2017 9:47 PM BST

May 10, 2017 -- 10:54AM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


The dam had three runs as a two year old, she was beaten 3/4 of a length over 7 furlongs before winning over 5 furlongs at Dundalk on her third start. She then had one run as a three year old after an absence of a year before being retired.She was bred to stay 10 furlongs, the second and third dams stayed at least that far. COM should stay 12 furlongs when racing in the right class, whether he is good enough to win a Derby is another matter entirely and only time will tell.Churchill is obviously the better horse at this stage but in my view there are far more doubts about his ability to stay 12 furlongs at Epsom given their respective pedigrees.


Jack, I'll just give you the quote from AO'B himself: (and his dam was found out at 6f - he trained her, and so...)

anyway, maybe it's of interest:

“He’s not far away from starting back. We’re thinking of Chester for a Derby trial for him. We thought he was very nice the first day he ran at Cork, but the ground was very bad and he just got a bit lost going right handed. He went to Leopardstown after that and the plan was to drop him in, but he hit the gate fast with Seamus so he let him run and he won very easy. He beat Orderofthegarter that day, but he might have caught him on a bad day, as Orderofthegarter was green and a bit slow to react on the day. I don’t know if he’s as good as that bare form suggests, but we’ll be delighted if he is. You couldn’t be sure about how far he’ll stay, as his dam only barely got five furlongs. He could be an Epsom horse or maybe he could be a horse for the Prix du Jockey Club, we’ll see what he does in his trial. He’s a good mover and I think the better the ground is, the better it will suit him.”

Report ffs May 10, 2017 9:53 PM BST

May 10, 2017 -- 11:16AM, Figgis wrote:


at least you have an above-par 2000 winnerThat still remains to be proved.


stop trolling, Figgis - the field was very strong, even Lancaster Bomber was deemed good enough to have a go at the KY Derby (had he gotten in), and Churchill took 2L out of that horse by jumping into the bridle. Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trials.

Maybe Churchill got the run of the race - I don't dispute that, but I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off.

Report Jack Bauer '24' May 10, 2017 9:57 PM BST
That is clearly nonsense as she stayed 7 furlongs as a two year old. I tend to ignore what AOB says and form my own opinion about his horses, and that approach has served me well for many years.
Report Figgis May 10, 2017 10:02 PM BST
even Lancaster Bomber was deemed good enough to have a go at the KY Derby

The fact that Coolmore were willing to have a crack at the KY Derby with one of their back up runners is neither here or there.

Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trials

They all won their trials in the manner of horses that needed to step up on that to win an average Guineas, even most of their backers were agreed on this. In the event none of them did.

I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off.

They're your opinions, which might turn out to be right, but at the moment they're just conjecture.

We hear enough hype from the Coolmore machine and the racing media but as punters we can keep it real. At this stage Churchill hasn't one piece of form to say he's a better than par Guineas winner. Maybe he'll go on to prove he is an outstanding miler and any punter is entitled to predict he will and back him accordingly, but don't expect everyone to swallow it until it happens.
Report ffs May 10, 2017 10:02 PM BST

May 10, 2017 -- 3:57PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


That is clearly nonsense as she stayed 7 furlongs as a two year old. I tend to ignore what AOB says and form my own opinion about his horses, and that approach has served me well for many years.


I don't know - she was tried at 7f, dictated a steady gallop, and was caught inside in the final furlong, so next race she was dropped back to 5f and got off the mark. If the trainer says she struggled to get 6f (or 7f), I don't see any reason not to believe him, especially as it's a very frank and open admission that could affect the horse as a Sire ... !?

Report Jack Bauer '24' May 10, 2017 10:12 PM BST
I have just watched the race again and she clearly stays 7 furlongs and the overall time was not bad. To suggest she barely stays 5 furlongs is just complete nonsense.
Report ffs May 10, 2017 10:28 PM BST

May 10, 2017 -- 4:02PM, Figgis wrote:


even Lancaster Bomber was deemed good enough to have a go at the KY DerbyThe fact that Coolmore were willing to have a crack at the KY Derby with one of their back up runners is neither here or there. Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trialsThey all won their trials in the manner of horses that needed to step up on that to win an average Guineas, even most of their backers were agreed on this. In the event none of them did.I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off.They're your opinions, which might turn out to be right, but at the moment they're just conjecture.We hear enough hype from the Coolmore machine and the racing media but as punters we can keep it real. At this stage Churchill hasn't one piece of form to say he's a better than par Guineas winner. Maybe he'll go on to prove he is an outstanding miler and any punter is entitled to predict he will and back him accordingly, but don't expect everyone to swallow it until it happens.


That's fair enough - Yes it's a lot about opinions - I think he was value for a bit more, and I think he'll improve for the race. Obv AO'b can get them fit enough to win fto, but also does take his time with a lot of others - and obv he's been in trouble w the Ire Stewards over Music Box bc of that.

Going forward - I do like Al Wukair who is only a shell compared to Churchill and Barney Roy. Eminent could prove v useful over a bit longer and also has some filling in to do.

I think Churchill will benefit from race-fitness,

e.g. Looking at his fto Guineas horses (who were the no1, and a real chance),

Air Force Blue - not representative so I ignore him, even if he did 'improve' eventually ...
Gleneagles - hard to judge as he did go down in RPR but that was in winning the Irish 2000 and St James by good distances, so you'd question the opposition he had in those races
Australia - By RPR at least, went up 3lbs at Epsom, and a further 4lbs at York.
Mars - went up 10 at Epsom, and a further 5 in the St James
Camelot - went up 5 at Epsom, before reverting back to level of Newmarket
in '11 Roderic O'Connor ran no sort of race, but did come back to win the Irish 2000

You could go on, ... probably to get a representative sample you'd have to look at all that ran plenty as 2yos and then ran a good race in the 2000 fto, so - you can do that - I have my impression, and I also have about Caravaggio, so in fact I'm one less interested in him in the St James etc.. as about him in the Derby

Report ffs May 10, 2017 10:29 PM BST

May 10, 2017 -- 4:12PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


I have just watched the race again and she clearly stays 7 furlongs and the overall time was not bad. To suggest she barely stays 5 furlongs is just complete nonsense.


fair enough - I read the trainer's opinion of him (and his dam) and I'm happy to learn differently

Report Figgis May 10, 2017 10:47 PM BST
The Guineas wasn't slowly run, the final time was decent, but it wasn't run at the optimum pace so I think the finishing positions were a bit more compressed than they would've been if they'd gone quicker earlier. I doubt Lancaster Bomber would've finished anywhere near as close in a faster run race. Because of that it's difficult to know if Churchill's true superiority was compromised or not. Arguments were put forward that Al Wukair and Barney Roy were unlucky, which is possible, but for me Churchill was a worthy winner, despite being against him on value grounds. That said, I still don't rate the form very highly, but he's the best 3yo miler around at the moment and that's all that mattered on the day. Looking ahead, as I said before he may prove to be special, but if he starts getting priced like a champion already I'll look to oppose him where possible until he actually proves it.
Report Figgis May 10, 2017 10:53 PM BST
I have my impression, and I also have about Caravaggio

I had Caravaggio the best 2yo for a few years and whatever he does in future I'm confident about my opinion of him last year. However, the way Coolmore were dithering about a 7f trial, then quick to avoid the Guineas with him, then dither some more about the French Guineas as an option has curbed my enthusiasm about him in the near future.
Report ffs May 10, 2017 11:02 PM BST

May 10, 2017 -- 4:53PM, Figgis wrote:


I have my impression, and I also have about CaravaggioI had Caravaggio the best 2yo for a few years and whatever he does in future I'm confident about my opinion of him last year. However, the way Coolmore were dithering about a 7f trial, then quick to avoid the Guineas with him, then dither some more about the French Guineas as an option has curbed my enthusiasm about him in the near future.


Good to see I'm not alone in my impression of Caravaggio - but I'd put forward that they knew Churchill handled Newmarket well, and had a 7f race under him. From a Stallion pov, much better NOT to bomb at Newmarket and maybe not find 1m in France (though I suspect he will, and it seems so do they).

You could say it's a little weak-tight but protecting them as Sire-prospects is the game.

One thing is for sure, we'll know a LOT more after this wkend.

Re: Churchill - I do think he's above-par, but I'd lay a long-price that he's going to super-special as a miler. I think he's about top 25% of recent Guineas winners, but no more.

Report impossible123 May 10, 2017 11:14 PM BST
I believe Churchill will remain unbeaten post this race should he bypass the Epsom Derby. I also think he is worth a couple more lengths than he showed at Newmarket with that race under his belt, and a stronger pace.
Report impossible123 May 27, 2017 7:08 PM BST
Churchill is evens but as short as 4/6 for this race now; same opposition, same result, I'd say. He is so cool and just does enough to win (effortlessly) like he did today in the Irish 2000G. What a horse,...just cannot wait when he is upped in distance to 10f.
Report Jb23 May 28, 2017 11:01 AM BST
Do you think he'll be upped to 10 i123? My gut inclination was that he'd be kept to a mile to try and give Coolmore a unbeaten (at a mile) son of Galileo. SJP > Sussex > QE2 was what since being ruled out for the Derby was my personal opinion on how he would be campaigned
Report impossible123 May 28, 2017 3:25 PM BST
I had my reservation that he'd be stepped-up in distance earlier however, with Minding injured - flag carrier at 10f - and AOB's allusion he'd could be immediately post Irish 2000G victory I'd be inclined to think that might be the case, but it will not an easy decision for connections esp with so many prestigious mile races over the next few months; Coolmore also have Highland Reel, Deauville and others to rely on for 10f/12f.
Report ffs May 28, 2017 4:11 PM BST

May 28, 2017 -- 9:25AM, impossible123 wrote:


I had my reservation that he'd be stepped-up in distance earlier however, with Minding injured - flag carrier at 10f - and AOB's allusion he'd could be immediately post Irish 2000G victory I'd be inclined to think that might be the case, but it will not an easy decision for connections esp with so many prestigious mile races over the next few months; Coolmore also have Highland Reel, Deauville and others to rely on for 10f/12f.


I'm not saying w confidence, but I think we might see him at 10 sooner now, HR is more a 1m4 horse now, Deauville isn't really the standard you'd want, the 4yo+ miler division is tougher than the 10f division, so ... has was extremely impressive on ground he clearly didn't love, he could be really special. I don't know about Sandown, maybe York for the Juddmonte, certainly I imagine if the ground is right then the Irish Champion Stakes will be definitely one they'd want on his CV - it's one of the highest rated races in the world and it's a day when the Irish breeders are present

Report A_T May 28, 2017 4:38 PM BST
we won't see Churchill in the Eclipse it's a really tough race for 3yos - York maybe...
Report impossible123 May 28, 2017 5:08 PM BST
I think Churchill will be stepped-up in distance to 10f however, the Eclipse on 8th July might be too soon for him; the Juddmonte at the end of July, and the Irish Champion Stakes in September are most likely races, if so.

Minding, even if back on schedule at the end of August, the Irish Champion Stakes would be asking too much of her as a come back race, I'd think.
Report impossible123 May 29, 2017 3:12 PM BST
Almanzor could be aimed at the Juddmonte International if coming off the Sky Bet York Stakes satisfactorily three weeks earlier; a mouth watering clash with Churchill should AB decide the Juddmonte is the race to step-up-in-distance with Churchill.
Report ffs May 29, 2017 3:53 PM BST

May 29, 2017 -- 9:12AM, impossible123 wrote:


Almanzor could be aimed at the Juddmonte International if coming off the Sky Bet York Stakes satisfactorily three weeks earlier; a mouth watering clash with Churchill should AB decide the Juddmonte is the race to step-up-in-distance with Churchill.


good point re: Almanzor - will have to put his comeback date in my diary. Rouget won a good race yday, hopefull his horses are over the worst of it.

Report Fallen Angel June 7, 2017 1:27 PM BST
Any views on the number of runners in the St James Palace stakes? I could see it being a small field. We haven't had a larger than 7 runner field in any of the last 3 years and before that only 9 turned up. Gleneagles only faced four rivals.
Report impossible123 June 13, 2017 7:54 PM BST
It is looking increasingly likely a small field with only Churchill, Barney Roy and Thunder Snow the most definitive runners; Dream Castle, Lancaster Bomber (both much shorter in the Jersey Stakes), Rivet, Orderofthegarter, War Decree and Benbatl (all ran just 2 weeks ago) are unlikely, in my opinion.

I'd expect AOB and Godolphin to field a pacemaker for Churchill and Barney Roy respectively; Peace Envoy and Boynton are possible too. In total about 7 or 8 runners, I think.
Report Fashion Fever June 13, 2017 11:16 PM BST
surely the Sussex the Churchill don't see why you would up him

looks the perfect miler
Report impossible123 June 16, 2017 11:26 PM BST
I understand the connections of Barney Roy are hopeful about a reversal of the 2000G result with Churchill here...but I just cannot see that happening, all being equal.

Churchill will reaffirm superiority over Barney Roy, and then Ribchester in the Sussex, I reckon.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2017 5:17 AM BST
A_T    28 May 17 16:38 
we won't see Churchill in the Eclipse it's a really tough race for 3yos - York maybe...


16 x 3yr olds have won the race in the last 40 years.

40% strike rate Wink
Report Figgis June 20, 2017 12:23 PM BST
I've said for a while that I think Churchill isn't the exceptional horse he's been said to be, and I still think that until I see something more from him. That said, he looks by far the most likely winner here. After the Guineas there was talk of Barney Roy being unsuited to the pace but in my view the horse who was most compromised by the early pace was Churchill and if still in top form I'd expect him to increase his winning margin over BR today rather than BR narrow the gap.
Report Figgis June 20, 2017 4:47 PM BST
No doubt that Churchill was below par there, he also looked a bit too warm in the paddock but not sure it's a run I'd be keen to forgive for the future. It wasn't a particularly high level of form he showed at Newmarket or the Curragh. The Guineas wasn't run quick and while the Irish version was run faster for the conditions it was still quite moderate for the level. The ground was on the soft side at the Curragh but it wasn't a bog so I see no obvious reason why those races should've taken the edge off him. Maybe he can bounce back next time but I'd be keen to take him on. As for the level of this year's SJP form, it looks below average to me, both on form and the clock for the conditions.
Report A_T June 20, 2017 6:13 PM BST
I suspect Churchill has peaked now and won't be winning races like the Sussex, Marois, Moulin, etc. A Dawn Approach type - top 2yo who was still good enough to win the Guineas but then overtaken by more progressive peers.
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 8:24 AM BST
It is clear Churchill never ran to form but I wonder if the race was too quick for him. There was a lot of thought about him running in the Derby so I think they will put him up in trip now. On yesterday's very fast ground and on a turning track plus his position throughout all acted against him. Will the Eclipse or something similar be his next target? The 10f races look very thin on the ground and he has never looked a fast horse and ran in the Chesham last season which, I believe, is for strongly bred horses. They apparently haven't found anything wrong with him so I've had a little bit of the 10's.
Report unclepuncle June 21, 2017 2:15 PM BST
Churchill couldn't quicken after the home turn but after getting outpaced between the 2f and 1f pole he ran on with Ryan Moore virtually sitting upright in the saddle and was almost catching the placed horses at the line.

No doubt he can get 10f but they appear to have earmarked the Eclipse for Cliffs Of Moher and he needs the Group 1 on his CV more than Churchill does.
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 2:48 PM BST
You may be right Uncle but stranger things have happened and at 10s I thought it was worth a dig.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 4:12 PM BST
AOB said Churchill did not eat up (fully) yesterday when interviewed on ITV after the 1st race at Ascot today. He added Churchill's next most likely engagement would be the Sussex Stake and a decision about his participation will be made in the next 10 days to two weeks.

One bad race in hot condition and firm ground after winning his last six consecutive races including two 2000 Guineases does not devalue his form especially with Lancaster Bomber coming in 1 length 2nd yesterday - Churchill has beaten this horse many time much further than that.

I do not think Churchill will be stepped-up in distance for the Eclipse because Coolmore has Cliffs Of Moher for that plus several others eg Deauville, Highland Reel, Idaho, etc.
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 4:39 PM BST
You could be right Imp but I never live on the freely given words of AOB. The way he ran yesterday I think the Sussex may be a challenge and he has already said the thinks he will stay at least 10f. The Eclipse is a bit soon if he didn't eat up but stranger things have happened.
Report unclepuncle June 21, 2017 4:43 PM BST
Well they will definitely run a three year old or two in the Eclipse, and if COM isn't pleasing them then Churchill is the net most likely.

They won't waste a 10f Group 1 on the likes if Deauville, Idaho etc,
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 5:41 PM BST
Assuming all is well with Churchill 5/1 for the Sussex is value for sure.
Report unclepuncle June 21, 2017 6:19 PM BST
Not sure Ribchesters connections will be in the least bit worried about Churchill turning up.
Report brigust1 June 21, 2017 9:15 PM BST
Not sure Ribchester is unbeatable Unc. He looks like the best older horse around at a mile but it wasn't a very strong division with Galileo Gold, The Gurka and Awtad. I am not saying this 3 year old bunch are better but the standard to beat is not high.
Report twonky June 21, 2017 9:18 PM BST
Obviously, Churchill never ran to his best, but img, it was his 3rd group 1 in about 8 weeks. basically, he's been kept on the go during that time, whereas the winner was fresh, as avoiding the Irish Guinness. Taking the result at face value, through Lancaster Bomber, whom is fast ground dependant, I'd expect Churchill to run an awful better in the Sussex, given the classic 5 week prep.

Another aside, how many horses have completed the English and Irish 2k and sjp..they are not machines, they need to rest sometime, and imo, cool more were being greedy about breeding purposes before the horses wellbeing
Report twonky June 21, 2017 9:19 PM BST
3 group 1s in 7 weeks was the fans undoing
Report impossible123 June 21, 2017 10:51 PM BST
Assuming all is well with Churchill and he goes for the Sussex Stakes I'd like to think he'll redeem himself with aplomb. I understand Ribchester won the Queen Anne (rightly so) however, I thought he was coming to the end of his tether at the business end; Ribchester against Churchill on no firmer than good ground my money will be on the latter, even with Barney Roy in opposition should Sheikh is game.
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