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Fistfulofdollars
10 Apr 17 12:39
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Date Joined: 09 Sep 08
| Topic/replies: 313 | Blogger: Fistfulofdollars's blog
Always a trappy race to get involved with ante-post given the multiple entries in other long distance chases within three weeks. I do however like the weight and potential for the field to cut up which are factors in favour of fletchers flyer which appears to be laid out for this since winning a 3m 6f event at punchestown last season. The 16/1 is disappearing and I'm hoping he will slot in alongside One for Arthur at 18/1 at the weekend.
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Report GI MAC April 10, 2017 6:09 PM BST
Had a punt on this one when the entries came out, great chance imo. Aimed at the race from a long way out as you have mentioned.
Report Fistfulofdollars April 11, 2017 11:47 AM BST
Yes fingers crossed GI Mac! The 16s has gone now and hopefully Fehily will hold onto him long enough to get a finish!
Report Fabulous April 11, 2017 12:55 PM BST
Good luck guys, I like Fletchers as well, and I'm on at 25's a few weeks back, along with Lord Scoundrel same price, and my main hope is General Principle at 40's, I think they've brought him along steadily this year (needs to brush up jumping)

Tiger Roll will be my day of the race bet, and of the JP ranks, despite poor stable form, I like former winner Shutthefrontdoor, and also Pendra, who just might have been saved for this.

It's a great entry this year, and another horse who really stands out is Bachasson, and I think he is a big price, though he could take in the novice chase on Sunday.
Report Fistfulofdollars April 11, 2017 1:05 PM BST
Good luck with those Fabulous. Pendra did me a favour last season and I thought he ran a cracking race last time I'm just not sure whether he will stay. If he does I agree could run very well. Will be interested to see how mullins and Elliott play their hand and balance punchestown entries. Suspect how they do this will shape the handicap as Elliott has potentially 11 who could get in.
Report Fabulous April 11, 2017 1:36 PM BST
Cheers Fistful. I thought Pendra would be ok at the trip, though obviously ground will play a big part for him, and he has the option of Sandown.

Yeah, an interesting few weeks ahead in Ireland with the trainers title. Not something I'm that interested in myself, but I'm sure the pair of them will be throwing everything at it..............which makes it that bit more difficult for Ante-Post bets.
Report IrisDeBalme April 11, 2017 10:21 PM BST
I also think Fletxhers Flyer has a good each way chance... I really hope FOXROCK turns up albeit ground is too fast.  They did earmark one of the nationals.. . Just hope they consider him here....
Report IrisDeBalme April 11, 2017 10:23 PM BST
I'm also hoping PENDRA turns up at Sandown ..  think he is more suited there....
Report Facts April 11, 2017 11:27 PM BST
Has to be OUR DUKE for me
Report Fistfulofdollars April 12, 2017 11:38 AM BST
GL Facts. I have to say the connections and strength of market support (5/1 now) are the plusses for Our Duke but it's form short of 3m gives me some concern about his ability to stay. Then again I'm not the trainer!
Report Fistfulofdollars April 12, 2017 3:03 PM BST
The second forfeit stage has passed. Fourteen of the 30 getting in to the race at this point are Gigginstown owned. Shouldn't there be a rule on the maximum number from an owner in races like this? Used to be deemed scandalous when a trainer/owner kept a top weight in at the declaration stage to keep the weights down for another in the same ownership. Anyway I like fletchers given the shape of the field. He looks more like a stayer than the first two in the betting. Just watched his race last year at punchestown when he won over 3m 6f. On a line through the runner up and an earlier run against Blaklion at level weights I can't help but feel he is on a very reasonable mark.Starting to firm into 12s and 10s.
Report Fistfulofdollars April 12, 2017 3:23 PM BST
Correction! Gigginstown has 15...exactly half the field...should charge the owner for extra baggage
Report Fistfulofdollars April 14, 2017 3:19 PM BST
Well the race has cut up a little more. Only 14 gigginstown and 10 for elliott. I must say half of the gigginstown lot must surely have taken a fair bit out in the national. Can't help but feel they've been left in to stop others having a fair go. I must say I'm stronger than ever on Fletchers...weights rise keeps him on a nice 10:10 and looks the ideal profile for the race as a second season chaser 8yo...jumps and stays well...fingers crossed!
Report IrisDeBalme April 15, 2017 10:16 AM BST
Agree fistful... Greedy giggins... Not thinking about horses who ran in the national,,, it's a race that does leave its mark... They're really trying to monopolise the race.... Throw way too many darts...

Personally makes them seem clueless... And not giving other owners a chance....

I hope it does go to a horse that has been aimed for the race...and as OP  has stated FF is a good shout.

Btw - Will be interested to see how SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR runs tomorrow... He will love the ground but back from injury,...

Good luck
Report Fistfulofdollars April 15, 2017 11:21 AM BST
Agreed Iris ...GL with Shutthefrontdoor..the type with jonjo knowing what it takes for this race and has been lightly raced so if fit the trip will be right up its street...
Report Addictedtowinning April 16, 2017 7:18 PM BST
I have not really had time to go through all the runners so have ignored the Gigginstown lot. Very unoriginal I am afraid but I can see why people are keen on Fletchers Flyer ( no negatives ) but  Our Duke is so well in here that I am going split stakes between the two. I am not sure that Jonjo has a clue how his stayers are going to run anymore so backing any of his runners is a bit of a leap of faith. Good luck to everybody and happy easter.
Report sewter lives again April 16, 2017 11:00 PM BST
I like the chance of Abolitionist

I was impressed with the staying on strongly win lto
Report Somerset Sam April 17, 2017 12:23 AM BST
Couldnt have the favourite at the price, but connections clearly feel they wont ever have the chance of running in an Irish National off 153 again. May well bolt up but not for me at the prices.

Im splitting stakes between Fletchers Flyer as has been mentioned on here. Stays, jumps, wont mind the ground, seems to run well in Ireland and has been kept fresh for the race.

I also like the profile of Minella Foru, stayed on strongly to win the 2015 Paddy Power with a recent spin over hurdles making me think that connections think he's on a decent mark over fences.

If he had been a bigger price Bless The Wings might have made the shortlist. In front after jumping the last in last years race (off extremely exaggerated waiting tactics), only a 2lb higher mark this time around and ran a great race at the Festival off an impossible task at the weights. He is however now 12 and this years race would appear a much stronger renewal.

Really looking forward to the race and glad the 5pm start allows me to watch it live! Good luck everyone.
Report Addictedtowinning April 17, 2017 9:44 AM BST
I just has a look at last years race and Bless The Wings does a pretty good Arazi impression from 4 out until bumping with Rogue Angel at after the last - I would imagine that this years will be run flat out from the start and that might help him.
Report dunlaying April 17, 2017 10:08 AM BST
With next to no weight First Lieutenant could come in to the reckoning along with Bless The Wings.
Report FELTFAIR April 17, 2017 11:20 AM BST
Backed the two old boys Raz De Maree and Bless The Wings. Both each way six places.
Report betilyerded April 17, 2017 12:38 PM BST
You may think the men in white coats should come and take me away for this but i really do think a case can be made for Dedigout at a whopping 100-1.

Yep, he's an 11yo and they dont win the race (only Bless The Wings almost did it last year). He is, however, very lightly raced in the chasing sphere having only had 9 starts.

His overall jumps record is 10 from 27 and he's a multiple Grade 1,2 & 3 both winner and placed over fences and hurdles.

For the past 3 years he's been banging his head against the wall in small field graded hurdles events in soft to heavy ground but there are "grounds" (ahem) for believing that todays better conditions will suit given the only time he has encountered such conditions was when 2nd in his bumper and when he won a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse over 2m 6f and his overall course record is 2-3-7.

The trip shouldnt be an issue given he stayed on to win the Grade 2 Galmoy hurdle over 3m in heavy ground 2 seasons back, with a decent bunch of stayers behind him.

What catches my eye is his mark in his first ever handicap chase which at 140 could be lenient given what he has achieved both over fences and hurdles. Granted, he didnt do much on his return to fences last month behind stable mate Roi de Francs (who interestingly was ridden by todays pilot Connor Brassil on only his 3rd ride for Giggginstown)but neither was he knocked about when his chance had gone and I do feel that with todays better ground, light weight (he's NEVER carried less than 11-00 in every single jumps race he has ever competed in) and big field he could spring a major surprise in what i think is a wide open race.

Take him away!!!ScaredScaredScared
Report Facts April 17, 2017 5:56 PM BST
Our Duke - very impressive Cool
Report GI MAC April 17, 2017 7:05 PM BST
Bit of a let down from Fletchers Flyer. Our duke is a Gold Cup horse for next year.....
Report Fistfulofdollars April 18, 2017 8:43 AM BST
Agreed GI Mac...favourite won v well. Bit perplexed about what happened to fletchers 4 out...maybe pulled a muscle or something. Weakened tamely having travelled v strongly. C'est la vie.
Report Fistfulofdollars April 18, 2017 8:43 AM BST
Agreed GI Mac...favourite won v well. Bit perplexed about what happened to fletchers 4 out...maybe pulled a muscle or something. Weakened tamely having travelled v strongly. C'est la vie.
Report GI MAC April 18, 2017 7:04 PM BST
I'm not sure Frys horses are firing just now, he's had a few favourites getting beaten. The run from Fletchers was too bad to be true.
Report IrisDeBalme April 18, 2017 8:36 PM BST
Well done facts and other winners...

Yeap winner won easily... and another bow in Harrington runners... not sure why he is touted as a gold cup horse after that win... there were too many giggistown runners in the field... albeit quite a few ran in English national... was always going to go to a horse better prepared for this race and let's face it not many...

I would have thought English national would be more likely option next season... gold cup ? Shows how bad the division is really...
Report Facts April 18, 2017 9:57 PM BST
Thanks Iris.
Now the Scottish National ! Happy
Report Fistfulofdollars April 19, 2017 12:19 PM BST
Yes well done facts...re the gigginstown runners I predicted half would be pulled up and virtually all the GN runners were - 6 in all. Winner was v impressive but the field was so affected by too many GG runners and GN survivors that makes me wonder how good the form was re gold cup form.
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